Month: December 2008

Enough things have happened (such as states certifying their results) that we’re ready to roll out our first wave of results from Swing State Project’s big crowdsourcing project of compiling presidential results by congressional district. Usually, knowing presidential results by CD requires waiting for Polidata to compile this data and make it public in March… but the power of an infinite number of nerds typing on an infinite number of spreadsheets makes it possible for us to short-circuit the process. (There’s still tons of stuff left for enterprising nerds to do, especially if you have access to precinct-level data. Check our database in progress.)

Without further Apu, here’s the first wave, representing nearly one quarter of all congressional districts. Explanation of many of the technicalities follows below the chart (and a simple spreadsheet of just the 2008 numbers is available here):

District	Obama #	McCain #	Other #	2008 %	2004 %	2000 %
AL-01	117,804 (114,847- 120,761)	184,257 (180,524- 187,990)	2,195 (2,167- 2,222)	38.7/60.6	35/64	38/60
AK-AL	123,594	193,841	8,762	37.9/59.4	36/61	28/59
AR-01	95,102	145,340	7,185	38.4/58.7	47/52	50/48
AR-02	131,891	161,540	5,855	44.1/54.0	48/51	48/49
AR-03	96,485	185,055	6,894	33.5/64.2	36/62	37/60
AR-04	98,832	146,082	6,356	39.3/58.1	48/51	49/48
CO-03	160,746 (158,973- 162,519)	169,233 (167,036- 171,429)	5,602 (5,539- 5,664)	47.4/50.4	44/55	39/54
CO-05	129,101 (126,976- 131,226)	189,532 (187,084- 191,980)	4,982 (4,863- 5,100)	39.9/58.6	33/66	31/63
CT-01	218,367	108,315	4,365	66.0/32.7	60/39	62/33
CT-02	209,546	139,888	5,055	59.1/39.5	54/44	54/40
CT-03	201,334	116,962	3,872	62.5/36.3	56/42	60/34
CT-04	189,142	125,978	2,108	59.6/39.7	52/46	53/43
CT-05	181,902	136,898	4,048	56.3/42.4	49/49	52/43
DE-AL	255,459	152,374	4,579	61.9/37.0	53/46	55/42
ID-01	128,134	220,787	8,210	35.9/61.8	30/69	28/68
ID-02	108,693	183,022	7,387	36.3/61.2	30/69	28/67
IN-08	139,500 (137,953- 141,047)	150,945 (148,866- 153,024)	3,813 (3,734- 3,892)	47.4/51.3	38/62	42/57
IA-01	175,394	122,629	4,327	58.0/40.6	53/46	52/45
IA-02	190,973	122,395	5,671	59.9/38.4	55/44	53/43
IA-03	173,932	143,771	5,785	53.8/44.4	50/50	49/48
IA-04	166,104	142,396	5,724	52.9/45.3	48/51	48/49
IA-05	122,537	151,188	4,297	44.1/54.4	39/60	40/57
KY-01	104,626	176,807	4,424	36.6/61.9	36/63	40/58
KY-02	118,700	188,955	4,473	38.0/60.5	34/65	37/62
KY-03	193,260	150,552	3,393	55.7/43.4	51/49	50/48
KY-04	118,773	189,008	5,086	38.0/60.4	36/63	37/61
KY-05	75,815	162,614	4,241	31.2/67.0	39/61	42/57
KY-06	140,811	180,526	4,444	43.2/55.4	41/58	42/56
LA-01	74,405	214,479	4,708	25.3/73.1	28/71	31/67
LA-02	130,741	43,459	1,782	74.3/24.7	75/24	76/22
LA-03	97,420	163,294	5,306	36.6/61.4	41/58	45/52
LA-04	108,084	161,853	3,134	39.6/59.3	40/59	43/55
LA-05	103,707	175,097	3,638	36.7/62.0	37/62	40/57
LA-06	130,398	180,708	4,212	41.4/57.3	40/59	43/55
LA-07	103,500	187,607	4,915	35.0/63.4	39/60	42/55
ME-01	232,145	144,604	6,885	60.5/37.7	55/43	50/43
ME-02	189,778	150,669	7,090	54.6/43.4	52/46	48/45
MA-01	198,880	102,445	n/a	66.0/34.0	63/35	56/33
MA-02	178,090	117,272	n/a	60.3/39.7	59/40	58/35
MA-05	175,871	117,654	n/a	59.9/40.1	57/41	57/36
MA-06	192,502	135,956	n/a	58.6/41.4	58/41	57/36
MA-07	189,329	97,173	n/a	66.1/33.9	66/33	64/29
MA-08	202,962	32,749	n/a	86.1/13.9	79/19	73/15
MA-09	169,042	107,281	n/a	61.2/38.8	63/36	60/33
MA-10	196,218	155,288	n/a	55.8/44.2	56/43	54/39
MI-01	166,194	160,130	6,588	49.9/48.1	46/53	45/52
MI-02	167,607	179,427	5,878	47.5/50.8	39/60	38/59
MI-03	169,283	171,255	7,344	48.7/49.2	40/59	38/60
MI-04	170,275	163,886	5,928	50.2/48.2	44/55	44/54
MI-05	207,479	113,013	5,521	63.6/34.7	59/41	61/37
MI-06	177,324	146,377	3,365	54.2/44.8	46/53	45/52
MI-07	171,535	154,244	6,524	51.6/46.4	45/54	46/51
MI-08	198,207	172,346	6,412	52.6/45.7	45/54	47/51
MI-09	202,689	155,719	2,960	56.1/43.1	49/51	47/51
MI-10	160,971	166,932	7,452	48.0/49.8	43/57	45/53
MN-01	173,880	158,964	8,383	51.0/46.9	47/51	45/49
MN-02	193,218	198,966	7,683	48.3/49.8	45/54	44/51
MN-03	200,239	175,730	6,110	52.4/46.0	48/51	46/50
MN-04	217,982	113,600	6,835	64.4/33.6	62/37	57/37
MN-05	254,764	81,749	7,076	74.1/23.8	71/28	63/29
MN-06	183,950	219,939	8,519	44.6/53.3	42/57	42/52
MN-07	154,127	162,938	8,177	47.4/50.1	43/55	40/54
MN-08	195,128	163,506	8,810	53.1/44.5	53/46	49/44
MS-01	129,939	213,478	n/a	37.8/62.2	37/62	40/59
MS-02	196,400	99,428	n/a	66.4/33.6	59/40	57/41
MS-03	131,292	216,256	n/a	37.8/62.2	34/65	35/64
MS-04	93,661	198,756	n/a	32.0/68.0	31/68	33/65
MO-08	104,252 (100,910- 107,593)	178,358 (170,990- 185,726)	4,729 (4,606- 4,851)	36.3/62.1	36/64	39/59
MT-AL	231,667	242,763	16,662	47.2/49.4	39/59	33/58
NH-01	186,370	164,403	3,026	52.7/46.5	48/51	46/49
NH-02	198,456	152,131	3,225	56.1/43.0	52/47	48/47
NM-01	180,833	119,342	873	60.1/39.6	51/48	48/47
NM-02	114,928	118,063	3,298	48.6/50.0	41/58	43/54
NM-03	176,661	109,427	3,456	61.0/37.8	54/45	52/43
ND-AL	141,278	168,601	7,786	44.5/53.1	36/63	33/61
OR-01	228,817	135,975	10,108	61.0/36.3	55/44	50/44
OR-03	260,128	93,931	10,297	71.4/25.8	67/33	61/32
OR-05	192,355	154,488	9,385	54.0/43.4	49/50	47/48
RI-01	148,388	75,747	3,694	65.1/33.3	62/36	63/31
RI-02	148,159	89,642	4,110	61.3/37.1	57/41	60/33
SD-AL	170,924	203,054	7,997	44.8/53.2	38/60	38/60
TX-01	83,252 (81,507- 84,997)	187,768 (183,628- 191,907)	1,940 (1,901- 1,978)	30.5/68.8	31/69	33/68
TX-31	125,321 (123,983- 126,658)	173,294 (171,304- 175,284)	3,563 (3,535- 3,590)	41.5/57.3	33/67	32/69
VT-AL	219,262	98,974	6,790	67.5/30.5	59/39	51/41
VA-01	179,442	193,273	3,652	47.7/51.4	39/60	39/58
VA-02	142,257	136,725	2,991	50.5/48.5	42/58	43/55
VA-03	229,822	72,249	2,223	75.5/23.7	66/33	66/32
VA-04	178,795	173,358	3,087	50.3/48.8	43/57	44/54
VA-05	157,362	164,874	3,621	48.3/50.6	43/56	41/55
VA-06	134,212	182,573	3,869	41.9/56.9	36/63	37/60
VA-07	177,789	205,949	3,648	45.9/53.2	38/61	37/61
VA-08	234,203	100,234	3,594	69.3/29.7	64/35	57/38
VA-09	108,220	160,430	4,596	39.6/58.7	39/60	42/55
VA-10	205,964	179,337	4,025	52.9/46.1	44/55	41/56
VA-11	211,466	156,003	3,417	57.0/42.1	49/50	45/52
WV-01	103,096	141,016	4,279	41.5/56.8	42/58	43/54
WV-02	113,853	142,112	4,175	43.8/54.6	42/57	44/54
WV-03	87,178	114,933	4,011	42.3/55.8	46/53	51/47
WI-01	191,901	177,162	4,281	51.4/47.5	46/54	45/51
WI-02	286,089	123,495	5,054	69.0/29.8	62/37	58/36
WI-03	213,211	150,618	5,327	57.8/40.8	51/48	49/46
WI-04	234,468	73,447	3,108	75.4/23.6	70/30	66/30
WI-05	174,174	243,597	4,191	41.3/57.7	36/63	35/62
WI-06	181,198	176,871	4,996	49.9/48.7	43/56	42/53
WI-07	200,562	152,507	5,624	55.9/42.5	50/49	48/47
WI-08	195,608	164,696	4,711	53.6/45.1	44/55	43/52
WY-AL	82,868	164,958	6,832	32.5/64.8	29/69	28/69

The easy ones to do were the at-large states, and states where the SoS has already reported by congressional district (Connecticut, Idaho, Kentucky, Minnesota, and Virginia). Also easy were states where district lines precisely follow county lines (Arkansas, Iowa, and West Virginia).

We also have a number of excellent spreadsheets in our portfolio where people were able to locate precinct, ward, or town data. (A huge thank you to everyone who has contributed, and one more reminder that there are still many more states to do, although they get progressively harder from here on out.) These include Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin.

You may notice that not all the districts from MA, MI, and OR are included. That’s because in each of these states, there’s one pesky jursidiction that hasn’t reported at the precinct level yet: Fall River in Massachusetts, Wayne County in Michigan, and Josephine County in Oregon. If you find this data anywhere, please let us know! (A few other minor requests for our anonymous spreadsheet wizards: if the persons who did MA and MS have “other” data, could you add those to the databases? And whoever did WI, could you provide the “Wisconsin long” form that shows precinct-level data in split counties? Thanks in advance!)

You’re probably wondering about those ones where there’s a total and then a range of numbers in parentheses. These districts (AL-01, CO-03, CO-05, IN-08, MO-08, TX-01, and TX-31) are ones where there were county splits but I felt confident proceeding even without precinct data, because there was only one split county and it represented such a small percent of the total that even if I allocated the votes within the county completely wrong it still wouldn’t affect the total percentages by more than a fraction of one percent. In these cases, I’m presenting both range values (of the maximum and minimum possible) and a point estimate (calculated by allocating half of those counties’ votes for each candidate to the district in question, and half to the other district).

As we get more states done, we’ll roll more of them out. We’re expecting California and Nebraska to report by CD soon (which will give us another 56 CDs right there), but for almost all the other states, we’re missing precinct-level data. If you like this resource and have access to useful information, but don’t have the time or stamina to spreadsheet it all, please just let us know in the comments or the master database, and I’m sure someone else will pounce on it.

CNN:

Democrat Paul Carmouche Wednesday conceded his race for a seat in Congress to physician John Fleming in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district.

Louisianans went to the polls Saturday to choose between Carmouche, the former Caddo Parrish district attorney, and Fleming. Unofficial results show Fleming leading Carmouche by less than 400 votes.

“Of more than 92,000 votes cast throughout the 13 parishes of this district, it appears that our campaign has fallen slightly short,” Carmouche said. “I will not ask for a recount of any of the paper ballots, and I offer my warmest congratulations to Dr. Fleming.”

A tough, tough loss – the sub-0.4% margin of victory makes this one of the closest races of 2008. With a Republican incumbent, even a freshman, this seat will probably be very challenging for Democrats to contest in 2010.

This also now means that the only outstanding House race is VA-05, where Rep. Virgile Goode, trailing by 745 votes, has asked for a recount. The results of the recount are expected next week, but I’d be pretty shocked if the outcome changes.

GOP Rep. Mark Kirk is seriously considering a run for Barack Obama’s seat if a special election occurs:

In an interview Wednesday morning, Kirk said he was looking at running but thought state legislators’ first priority should be getting Blagojevich out of office.

“I will look at it,” Kirk said. “As far as the people of Illinois, the first job is not to decide how we pick a Senator. The first job is getting rid of the governor.”

But Kirk doesn’t stop there. Displaying his characteristic style of douchebaggery, the faux moderate rips into five of the six Senate candidates mentioned in the federal complaint against Blago:

Kirk did not hold back his disdain for “Senate Candidates one through five” mentioned the federal complaint, at least one of whom the governor said offered money upfront in return for the Senate appointment.

“I think if they were heavily involved with Rod Blagojevich, they will not be viable for a special election – if they can hold public office at all,” Kirk said.

The Illinois Republican said Senate candidates one through five “need to sign criminal attorneys and try to protect themselves against coming indictments.”

This is pretty vile, considering that it’s not clear that any candidates alluded to in the indictment (aside from possibly numbers four and five) engaged in anything shady, especially Senate Candidate #1, who most assume is Valerie Jarrett — someone who withdrew her name from consideration after earning the ire of Blago for not offering him anything other than “appreciation” for an appointment.

PPP (12/8-9, Democrats)

Caroline Kennedy (D): 44

Andrew Cuomo (D): 23

Kirsten Gillibrand (D): 6

Tom Suozzi (D): 3

Byron Brown (D): 3

Carolyn Maloney (D): 3

Nydia Velazquez (D): 4

Brian Higgins (D): 5

Not sure/someone else: 8

(MoE: ±3.2%)

PPP’s poll of New York Democrats shows a wide showing of support for Caroline Kennedy to replace Hillary Clinton (to the seat once held by Robert F. Kennedy). Now, it could certainly be argued that this is simply a test of name recognition, seeing as how there isn’t any public campaigning for the position; this really isn’t any different than a poll of vice-presidential preferences, since there’s really only one voter that decides the race (David Paterson, in this case). But it suggests that not only is Paterson safe in appointing elective neophyte Kennedy, but that he’d likely receive widespread support for doing so.

Second choice for NY-Sen

Caroline Kennedy (D): 24

Andrew Cuomo (D): 35

Kirsten Gillibrand (D): 4

Tom Suozzi (D): 4

Byron Brown (D): 5

Carolyn Maloney (D): 9

Nydia Velazquez (D): 6

Brian Higgins (D): 5

Not sure/someone else: 9

As an added bonus, PPP also asks respondents their second choices. It looks like Kennedy-then-Cuomo and Cuomo-then-Kennedy are by far the most common configurations (again, assumedly because of their high name recognition), although Carolyn Maloney puts together a surprisingly strong showing (probably thanks to her presence in the NYC media market).

Marist (12/8, registered voters)

Caroline Kennedy (D): 25

Andrew Cuomo (D): 25

Byron Brown (D): 6

Nydia Velazquez (D): 4

Kirsten Gillibrand (D): 4

Carolyn Maloney (D): 3

Tom Suozzi (D): 3

Adolfo Carrion (D): 2

Steve Israel (D): 1

Unsure: 26

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Marist, by contrast, polls registered voters instead of Democrats only, and seems to push leaners less. They find a much closer contest between Kennedy and Cuomo, suggesting a lot of Democratic loyalty to the House of Kennedy. Breakdown by party shows Democrats supporting 31 for Kennedy vs. 21 for Cuomo, while Republican support is 34 for Cuomo and 21 for Kennedy. Kennedy leads in NYC, while Cuomo gets the plurality of support in the suburbs and upstate.

Christmas seems to be coming a few days early for Kentucky Democrats: Jim Bunning, who barely won re-election in the Republican year of 2004 against a little-known state senator (after several campaign trail incidents that called into question his mental faculties), plans to run for a third term. The Louisville Courier-Journal is reporting today that Bunning has formed a steering committee to begin fundraising for 2010. (H/t RandySF.)

Given how red Kentucky is, at least at the presidential level, this has to be one race where we’d do better running against a crazy incumbent rather than against a generic R (especially in an off-year election where there won’t be presidential coattails to help Bunning over the finish line). As we discussed in our Kentucky recruitment thread a few weeks ago, Rep. Ben Chandler would probably be the best bet on the Dem side (although he’d leave behind a pretty red district to fill). Other names include Auditor Crit Luallen (who, perhaps unwisely, turned down the opportunity to go after Mitch McConnell this year) and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo (who lost to Bunning in 2004 while still a state senator).

GOP Sen. Richard Burr holds North Carolina’s supposedly “cursed” Senate seat — one that has switched parties every time its been up for election starting from 1974 onward. That’s no guarantee that Burr won’t break the curse in 2010, but he certainly starts the cycle with a big target on his back. Who would you like to see run against him?

UPDATE by Crisitunity:

PPP (12/8-9, registered voters)

Roy Cooper (D): 39

Richard Burr (R-inc): 34

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Speak of the devil: PPP shows up with a poll of one of the likeliest matchups: Burr vs. Attorney General Roy Cooper. The news is very good, with Cooper holding a five-point lead (albeit with huge undecideds). Burr also sports a downright awful approve/disapprove at 32/31, while Cooper clocks in at 44/23.

After giving us all a scare last week, Dennis Moore, the only remaining Democrat in Kansas’ congressional delegation, says that he’ll run for another term in 2010:

Rep. Dennis Moore said he plans to run for re-election in 2010, ruling out a possible open-seat Senate bid. Sen. Sam Brownback (R) is retiring and will likely run for governor.

“I am honored to be serving the people of the third district and have every intention of continuing my work in Congress on their behalf,” Moore said in a statement released Monday. Additionally, an aide confirmed that the Congressman will not run for Senate.

The timing of this announcement might raise suggestions that Moore has decided to leave the open Senate race to Kathleen Sebelius, who recently withdrew her name from consideration for a job in Obama’s cabinet. (But that’s assuming he was even interested in the gig in the first place.) Time will tell.

Outgoing GOP Rep. Vito Fossella is set to make a brief visit to the Big House, as he was sentenced to five days in prison for driving while intoxicated earlier this year. Of course, that hasn’t stopped him from appealing the sentence before a jury — as well as testing the waters for a 2010 comeback against Democrat Mike McMahon:

Retiring Rep. Vito Fossella (R-N.Y.) may be testing the waters for a re-entry into politics, with the first major bellwether coming at an event for supporters on Sunday.

Despite being sentenced on Monday to five days in jail for driving while intoxicated (DWI), Fossella will be holding a brunch for some 500 supporters in his Staten Island district this weekend.

He’s paying for an estimated $5,000 spread of coffee, bagels and juice out of his campaign funds. A bevy of Staten Island officials and longtime political supporters – including New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg – will be in attendance of what a confidant of Fossella’s called an indicator of his future political fortunes.

“The bottom line is how many people show up to his event,” said former Rep. Guy Molinari (R-N.Y.), a longtime Staten Island politico and close friend of Fossella’s. “If a lot of people show up, it would be an indication that he’s very popular and would be a formidable candidate.”

The only problem? Big names like Bloombleberry may be showing up for the “farewell” party, but the rank and file doesn’t seem particularly interested in Vito’s shindig.

Oh yeah, and here’s what SSP’s favorite punching bag, Bob Straniere, has to say:

“Republicans can still succeed selectively, but the congressional seat is now lost forever,” said Straniere.

Word.