MO-Sen, CO-Sen: Salazar Solid, Bond Shaky

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (12/2-4, likely voters)

Robin Carnahan (D): 43

Christopher Bond (R-inc): 47

(MoE: ±4%)

The Great Orange Satan has started polling potential matchups for 2010, and as suspected, one potentially vulnerable Republican incumbent is Kit Bond in Missouri. Matched against possible candidate Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (member of Missouri’s preeminent political family), 22-year incumbent Bond leads by only 4 points.

Bond’s favorables are just under the 50% mark at 49/43, while the less-known Carnahan clocks in at 48/26 with 26% having no opinion, giving her a lot of room for growth. Interestingly, the only region of the state where Carnahan currently leads is the city of St. Louis; if (like Claire McCaskill in 2006) she can maintain usual Democratic margins in the urban parts of the state while holding down losses in the state’s big red middle, she can eke out the victory.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (12/2-4, likely voters)

Ken Salazar (D-inc): 49

John Elway (R): 38

(MoE: ±4%)

Ken Salazar (D-inc): 51

Tom Tancredo (R): 37

Research 2000 also released the first set of polls for the 2010 senate race in Colorado (diaried yesterday by safi), which at least has the potential of being the Democrats’ top vulnerability. However, Ken Salazar is looking pretty safe against two top GOP contenders. One of those contenders is polarizing bigot Tom Tancredo, whom you wouldn’t expect to get much traction, but the other one is former Broncos QB (and car dealer) John Elway, a popular if not legendary figure in Colorado. But apparently he’s lacking in the political skills department, if he’s barely running ahead of the loathsome Tancredo (and he certainly can’t blame lack of name recognition).

Former GOP Gov. Bill Owens is sometimes mentioned as a candidate, although he hasn’t taken any steps in that direction. He ended his term fairly popular and would probably fare better than either of these clowns, so it would be interesting to see a head-to-head with him included.

Who Are Illinois Senate Candidates 1-6?

From the FBI we learn about 6 unnamed Senate candidates.  But who are they?

Senate Candidate 1: The favorite of Change to Win (labor).  This candidate is a woman, but took her name out of consideration.  Apparently the only thing she promised Blago was her appreciation.

Senate Candidate 2: Ben Smith at Politico figures it’s Attorney General Lisa Madigan.

Senate Candidate 3: Only mentioned in passing as a comparison to Senate Candidate 3.

Senate Candidate 4: A Deputy Governor in Illinois who could be counted on the resign the seat and let Blago take it over if he (Blago) was impeached.  From a Dec. 1 press release from this year we learn there are 3 Deputy Governors of Illinois: Dean Martinez, Bob Greenlee, and Louanner Peters.

Senate Candidate 5: Promised to raise $500,000 to Blago’s re-election campaign.  This candidate is male.  Ben Smith seems to lean towards State Senate President Emil Jones rather than Rep. Jesse Jackson.

Senate Candidate 6: A wealthy person from Illinois.  According to Blago’s advisor, it would be hard to appoint this person to the seat.

NY-Sen-B: King is “Preparing a Run”

My pappy used to tell me: “Son, if you’re gonna go out, you may as well do it in style!” Looks like GOP Rep. Pete King is gonna do it in style:

Rep. Pete King (R-N.Y.) is preparing a run at Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s (D) seat in 2010, his office confirmed Tuesday. […]

King is one of just three GOPers in the New York congressional delegation to survive November’s elections and has a good fundraising start on the race, having banked $1.2 million as of late November.

Of course, a lot depends on who Paterson chooses to fill Clinton’s seat, but I’d wager that King faces extremely tough odds — even against a “weak” Democrat. A King candidacy would also open up his Long Island House seat (old PVI: D+2.1), which is very winnable for Democrats with the right candidate.

UPDATE: The AP has more:

“I am seriously considering the race for Hillary Clinton’s seat,” King told The AP. “I’m very serious about it.”

The eight-term lawmaker from Long Island said New York’s GOP chairman Joseph Mondello “supports me 100 percent,” and that state Conservative Party chair Michael Long has responded positively.

The son of an NYPD lieutenant, King said he “would genuinely represent the interests of blue-collar conservatives.”

IL-Sen: Durbin Calls for Special Election

Dick Durbin has a good idea:

A former state legislator, Durbin said he spoke to a former colleague in the Illinois legislature early Tuesday to suggest a special election instead of any gubernatorial appointment.

“If the allegations are proven true, he has clearly abused the public trust,” Durbin said of Blagojevich. “I think the Illinois legislature should enact a law as quickly as possible calling for a special election to fill the Senate vacancy of Barack Obama. No appointment by this governor under these circumstances can produce a credible replacement.”

Not only is this the right thing to do, it’d also give us something to discuss over the coming months. But if this is going to happen, the state legislature needs to scramble and get this law passed as quickly as possible.

(Hat-tip: Tyler O.)

UPDATE: From The Hill:

The Illinois state House is set to reconvene Monday to consider a bill that would fill President-elect Obama’s old Senate seat by special election, according to a spokesman for Illinois state House Speaker Michael Madigan (D).

The state House is likely to return Monday, with the bill taking two days to pass, Madigan spokesman Steve Brown said.

Iowa Supreme Court heard marriage equality case today

This morning the Iowa Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Varnum v Brien, a case in which six couples are challenging Iowa’s law declaring that “Only a marriage between a male and female is valid.” Polk County has appealed a district judge’s ruling last year that the statute is unconstitutional. Last night jpmassar published a good overview of the legal issues underlying Judge Robert Hanson’s ruling as well as the county’s defense of the statute. (See also Osorio’s legal primer on the case.)

Links to video of the oral arguments can be found the Iowa Supreme Court’s website. The Des Moines Register’s article summarizing the arguments (with embedded video) is here. You can download pdf files of the district court ruling and the briefs submitted to the Iowa Supreme Court on appeal here.

My focus in this diary is not the legal arguments, but the political case that will need to be made for marriage equality once the Supreme Court has ruled on Varnum v Brien several months from now.

I have no idea how the high court will rule. Marriage equality advocates I have spoken with believe there is a realistic chance that Iowa’s “defense of marriage act” will be overturned and Judge Hanson’s ruling upheld. At the same time, no one believes this outcome is a sure thing. While five of the seven justices on the Iowa Supreme Court were appointed by Democratic governors, the court has never considered a gay marriage case before, so it is hard to say how the individual judges would be inclined to view Hanson’s reasoning.

For better or worse, the Iowa Supreme Court’s ruling is likely to be the last word legally on gay marriage in Iowa for at least a few years. Amending the Iowa constitution is relatively difficult. If the court overturns current state law, a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage would need to be approved by two consecutive legislative sessions (the 2009/2010 session and the 2010/2011 session) before going to the public in a general-election referendum. So, the earliest Iowa voters would be able to weigh in on this issue would be in November 2011.

My understanding is that Democratic leaders in the Iowa Senate (where Democrats have a 32-18 advantage) are committed to blocking any Proposition 8-style constitutional amendment. The 56-44 Democratic majority in the Iowa House may or may not be solid on this issue.

On the other hand, if the Iowa Supreme Court overrules Judge Hanson and finds the current statute constitutional, I do not expect Democratic leaders in the legislature or Governor Chet Culver to put their political weight behind repealing the “defense of marriage act.” So, full marriage rights for gays and lesbians in Iowa would probably be blocked for at least a few years in that scenario.

Even if the legal issue appears to be resolved, it’s clear that gay marriage will remain a salient political issue for some time after the Iowa Supreme Court’s ruling.

If the court overturns the law, the Republican Party of Iowa is likely to make a Prop 8-style crusade against gay marriage a major focus of its strategy going into the 2010 elections–especially if the state House or Senate blocks a constitutional amendment. Those who support marriage equality will need to back up Democratic politicians who stand with us on this issue, because there will be immense pressure to cave from some Democrats who are either social conservatives or who represent marginal districts. We will need to help move public opinion toward accepting gay marriage as a legal reality that does not threaten the institution of marriage for others.

If the court upholds the law, advocates for marriage equality will need to work on getting the Iowa legislature to approve, and Governor Culver to sign, some kind of legal recognition for gay couples. But again, the Republican Party of Iowa is likely to be aggressive in advocating against civil unions or any official recognition for same-sex relationships. Public education will be needed to give our Democratic legislators the political will to pursue this course. (Few socially moderate Republicans remain in the Iowa legislature.)

The good news is that Iowans already seem broadly supportive of legal recognition for same-sex couples. A Big Ten poll taken in October indicated that 28 percent of Iowans support gay marriage rights, with another 30 percent backing civil unions:

The poll showed that with a Supreme Court ruling, support for marriage increases to 35 percent, with another 27 percent supporting civil unions but not marriage.

That’s before the full-court press the right-wing noise machine is sure to make on this issue, no matter what the Iowa Supreme Court decides.

Shortly before Thanksgiving, I put up a post at Bleeding Heartland making fun of the American Family Association’s DVD called “They’re Coming to Your Town.” You can view the unintentionally funny DVD trailer and read the transcript here. The tone of its dire warnings about the gay agenda reminded me of a satirical piece in The Onion: I’m Not One Of Those ‘Love Thy Neighbor’ Christians. To my surprise, my post prompted this reply from a conservative Republican who occasionally comments at Bleeding Heartland:

There’s a difference  (0.00 / 0) [delete comment]

…in my book anyway, between a “gay” as you call them and a “gay activist” as the AFA refers to them in their promo.

Gay activists aren’t the loving couple who lives down the street; they’re the mouthy, in-your-face types who want to force everyone to accept, without question, their lifestyle.

This line of attack strikes me as potentially effective, and not only with religious conservatives who will never tolerate gays for theological reasons.

In order to combat Republican efforts to reverse marriage equality or block civil unions (depending on the Iowa Supreme Court’s ruling), we need to connect with those Iowans who may not mind that “loving couple” living quietly down the street, but resent the “in-your-face types” who want official recognition of their status.

I would appreciate input from anyone involved in voter persuasion during the recent campaign in California. It seems to me that the two most important groups to focus on are:

1. People who are happy to take a live-and-let-live approach to gays, but don’t see why the state should recognize their relationships.

Obviously, married couples enjoy many benefits not extended to unmarried couples. If you volunteered for the No on Prop 8 cause, what did you find to be effective points to bring up with voters?

Were people more likely to be supportive if reminded of the tax and other economic benefits granted to married couples? Or was it more useful to remind people of the potential harm suffered by couples lacking legal recognition, such as the chance that unsupportive relatives would bar a life partner from being with a sick or dying person in the hospital?

2. People who would support civil unions but are for whatever reason uncomfortable about the idea of gay marriage. If the Big Ten poll cited above is accurate, as many as 30 percent of Iowans fall into this category.

California blogger atdleft recently wrote,

I occasionally ran into this problem when I was out campaigning against Prop 8 in California. There would always be a few who’d ask me why we couldn’t be happy that domestic partnerships “are just like marriage”. I’d respond that domestic partnerships are not “just like marriage” because they’re not marriage and they only provide 1/3 the same rights as marriage, as the other 2/3 are federal rights that are blocked under DOMA.

I just don’t get it. On one hand, straight Americans seem more accepting of LGBT people than ever before. They support hate crimes laws, open military service, adoption rights, and essentially all the rights of marriage for gay & lesbian couples. But for some reason, people still stop and freak out over that one actual word: marriage.

Making gay marriage legal will not “force” any individual or church to “accept, without question, their lifestyle.” It’s vital for people to understand that clergy will not be forced to officiate at gay weddings. My own temple’s rabbi, who has officiated at same-sex ceremonies in our congregation, declined to marry Iowa’s only same-sex couple to be legally wed following Judge Hanson’s ruling last year. He released a statement explaining his position:

I wouldn’t have done this particular ceremony because NEITHER was Jewish in the first place. Instead I would have referred them to Rev. Mark Stringer of the Unitarian Church, who I know is a strong proponent of civil marriage and same sex ceremonies and who eventually did the marriage anyway. I commend him for so doing. […] For those interested, I both support Civil Marriage and I would do a same sex commitment ceremony, but my requirements for so doing would be EXACTLY the same as for a non-homosexual couple. Someone has to be Jewish and the couple must either be prepared to raise their children as Jews or have discussed it and not decided. I do not act as “Justice of the Peace” in a secular capacity. When I do weddings of any kind, I represent the Reform Jewish tradition in general and my beliefs as a Reform Jewish Rabbi in particular. I am there as a Rabbi, not as Justice of the Peace. Meanwhile, let me offer a hearty Mazal Tov to Sean and Tim.”

By the same token, religious institutions will not be forced to recognize gay marriages, just like legalizing divorce did not force churches to recognize divorces or remarriages.

Letting couples tell their own stories about why they want to be married is going to be a central part of any public campaign to increase support for gay marriage.

But I’ve also been wondering if we need to reassure people who are uncomfortable that they will still be able to disapprove of gay couples, even those who are legally married. Telling people that they’re wrong to be intolerant could backfire, especially if we’re dealing with an emotional issue. It might be more effective to make people understand that we hear and acknowledge their views.

Most of us can think of marriages we don’t approve of. Depending on your values, that could be 17-year-olds who dropped out of high school, a couple who are several decades apart in age, a professor marrying a former student, an impulsive remarriage after someone was widowed, an “open marriage” between non-monogamous heterosexuals, or a person who appears to have married a rich person for money. I know people who disapprove of my own marriage, because my husband is not Jewish. But no one would dispute that all of these marriages are valid under state law.

In an ideal world, I would want everyone to accept all loving couples and not be judgmental, but I think we need people to understand that they can still disapprove of gay marriage, even if it is legal. Widespread tolerance of gay relationships would be great, but it is not essential.

I doubt this script would be in any LGBT group’s talking points, but I wonder if it would help to convey this kind of message to reluctant voters:

I hear what you’re saying. For some people, gay marriage just goes against their values. I feel the same way when I look at some couples who probably got married for the wrong reasons. But I figure, just because someone gets a marriage license doesn’t mean I have to agree with their personal choices.

This could be a way of finding common ground with people who don’t object to what gays and lesbians do in their private lives, but are resistant to the state putting the “marriage” label on those relationships.

Again, I would welcome input from anyone who has done public education or voter persuasion on marriage equality. No matter where you live, you are welcome to post your advice to Iowa advocates at the Iowa progressive community blog Bleeding Heartland.

IL-Gov: Blago Arrested on Corruption Charges

Whoa:

Gov. Rod Blagojevich and his chief of staff were arrested today by FBI agents on federal corruption charges.

A three-year federal corruption investigation of pay-to-play politics in Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s administration has expanded to include his impending selection of a new U.S. senator to succeed President-elect Barack Obama, the Tribune has learned.

Federal authorities got approval from a judge before the November general election to secretly record the governor, sources told the Tribune, and among their concerns was whether the selection process might be tainted. That possibility has become a focus in an intensifying investigation that has included recordings of the governor and the cooperation of one of his closest friends.

Man, I don’t even know what to say.

UPDATE by Diego Infierno: Wow:

Throughout the intercepted conversations, Blagojevich also allegedly spent significant time weighing the option of appointing himself to the open Senate seat and expressed a variety of reasons for doing so, including: frustration at being “stuck” as governor; a belief that he will be able to obtain greater resources if he is indicted as a sitting Senator as opposed to a sitting governor; a desire to remake his image in consideration of a possible run for President in 2016; avoiding impeachment by the Illinois legislature; making corporate contacts that would be of value to him after leaving public office; facilitating his wife’s employment as a lobbyist; and generating speaking fees should he decide to leave public office.

In the earliest intercepted conversation about the Senate seat described in the affidavit, Blagojevich told Deputy Governor A on November 3 that if he is not going to get anything of value for the open seat, then he will take it for himself: “if . . . they’re not going to offer anything of any value, then I might just take it.” Later that day, speaking to Advisor A, Blagojevich said: “I’m going to keep this Senate option for me a real possibility, you know, and therefore I can drive a hard bargain.” He added later that the seat “is a [expletive] valuable thing, you just don’t give it away for nothing.”

What an asshole!

New York Senate…Our Majority in Name Only

On Election Night, I stood by while State Senator-elect Joe Addabbo gave his acceptance speech. I turned to a girl I met that night who worked on his campaign and was close to Malcolm Smith, the incoming majority leader.

“Looks like we control the State Senate” I said

“No, not really.” she explained, “Only Joe and Brian Foley won.”

“But that’s 32 seats, that’s a majority.” I said

She only rolled her eyes at me and walked away.

We didn’t really win the New York State Senate. We won it in name only. In votes, we may be able to get through progressive economic policies, but thanks to socially conservative Democrats. Unfortunately, and I said this as someone who supported, worked for and donated to LGBT causes in New York, the LGBT community is going to find itself under a bus…again…and there’s nothing we can do about until 2010.

I knew Diaz would threaten to bolt in February when I was working for PBS. Malcolm Smith told one of our producers in June that he needed four or more wins in the State Senate for marriage equality. On Monday, I spoke with a friend of mine in Albany who tells me Smith only has 28 votes for marriage equality; No Republicans are on our side. Four Democrats also opposed. I dind’t get their names (though three names are obvious) but I was told they’re all from the city. Ironic, huh?

If we go into these districts in the Bronx and argue that we need Democrats who will vote with us on gay rights, we WILL lose. Trust me on this, I’ve been there. In 2007, I canvassed the neighborhood as part of a local LGBT activist community. The response I got in these heavily Democratic neighborhood was disgusting and scary (more than one young Democrat used the “f” word and there were threats of violence)

Don’t think this is an ethnicity thing either. When marriage equality came up for a vote in 2007, we lost Democrats in Italian-American communities in Brooklyn, Orthodox Jewish communities in Brooklyn and African-American communities in Brooklyn and Queens. Here too, constituencies do not tow the progressive line on gay rights.

Diaz and Esparada will probably vote with us on economic issues. They won’t survive in their districts if they don’t. That’s really more important right now.

They can be anti-gay and survive there.  

Malcolm Smith is a good man. I spoke with him thoroughly about marriage equality and he is a full-fledged supporter. I am willing to bet my bank account on it. If he knew he could get it through despite Diaz and Esparada, he would do it. Let’s face it, what would’ve been the response if Smith told Diaz and Esparada, “Nope, I’m bringing marriage equality to the floor” and they bolted for the GOP? Would we be hailing Smith as a hero? Or a moron for giving up our majority in the middle of an economic crisis for a bill that was never going to pass this session anyway?

How do we get around this? Well, for starters, we reach out to these Bronx communities and try to beat these thugs in primaries in 2010…but also, head upstate and out to Long Island and fight for progressives. We nearly picked up seats in Nassau County (Kristen McElroy) and another in Queens (Jim Gennaro) that would have made Diaz/Esparada’s bigotry moot. If we can elect a black man President of the United States, then by God we can elect a progressive Democrat to represent Rochester in the State Senate.

CO-04, ID-01: Musgrave and Sali Considering Rematches

From the “Oh Please Yes!” Dept., neither Marilyn Musgrave or Bill Sali, defeated last month by hard-charging Democrats thanks in large part due to their sheer batshittery, are ruling out another run for their seats.

From The Hill:

Idaho Republican Party Executive Director Sid Smith said that the top potential challengers are state Sen. John McGee, state Attorney General Lawrence Wasden and, if he opts for a rematch, Sali.

Sali spokesman Wayne Hoffman did not rule that out.

“Running again in 2010 is an option that’s definitely still on the table,” he told The Hill.

And 9News.com:

Musgrave is not ruling out a future campaign.

“I will always be interested in politics. Whether I’ll run again for office I don’t know. I’ll always be active, I’ll always be involved,” she said.

Of course, if either of these mouth-breathers run again, they’d almost surely draw some serious primary competition — but it would still be entertaining!

TX-Sen: John Sharp Will Run For Hutchison’s Seat

Burnt Orange has the press release:

“I will be a candidate whether the election is in 2012 or any time before then,” said Sharp, who received the highest percentage of votes statewide of any Democrat during the past decade. “Texans face tough challenges that call for innovative solutions, and that’s what our campaign is all about.”

Sharp, 58, said he is forgoing the step of forming an exploratory committee and will file the required papers on January 1 so that he can begin raising money and campaigning across the state with the dawn of the new year.

Sharp, a former state comptroller, has the distinction of being the last Democrat to ever win a statewide race in Texas, but he’s since lost two races for Lieutenant Governor (’98 and ’02). The early announcement seems timed to chase off Houston Mayor Bill White, who has also been talked about as a potentially strong candidate for whichever office Kay Bailey Hutchison does not run for:

Houston Mayor Bill White is also mentioned as a potential Democratic candidate. And Sharp’s early announcement appeared geared at discouraging White or other Democrats from entering the race. Among Republicans who might run are Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, former Secretary of State Roger Williams, Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, Fort Worth Rep. Kay Granger and Texas Sen. Florence Shapiro.

If KBH does indeed resign to wage a primary campaign against Gov. Rick Perry, it’s also possible that other Democrats can join the fray. Indeed, in the 1993 special election to fill the seat of Sen. Lloyd Bentsen, there were 24 candidates on the first ballot. While Perry will appoint a replacement for Hutchison, I doubt that whoever he picks will have enough gravitas to hold off a swarm of fellow Republicans who’d want to take a crack at the seat. This one could be wild.