Author: nrafter530

Crossposted at LibertyAvenuePolitics.com

After narrowly losing the Democratic Primary for NYC Mayor in 2005 to Fernando Ferrer, Congressman Anthony Weiner of Queens appeared to be the instant frontrunner for 2009. At times during his second term, Mayor Bloomberg’s numbers were so bad that it appeared Weiner would waltz into Gracie Mansion.

But Democrats are apparently fortune’s fool when it comes to New York City Mayoral Elections. Since the economic crisis, Bloomberg’s numbers have shot up and their frontrunner, Anthony Weiner, appears to be backing out of the race according to a letter to supporters;

Over the next months, the task of lifting our nation and our city out of the worst economic turmoil in 70 years will be – and I hope agree, should be – my top priority.

So you won’t see me holding campaign rallies. You won’t see me knocking on doors asking for votes.

There is a time for politics, but this is a time for problem solving. And boy do we have a lot of problems to solve in Washington today.

Weiner says he will make a final decision in late Spring, but it is unlikely, given that the election is eight months away and he is behind in the polls, that Weiner would enter the race so late.

A January Quinnipiac poll http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x130… showed that while Weiner was ahead of NYC Comptroller Bill Thompson in the Democratic Party, Weiner would start out well behind Bloomberg in a general election. Despite supporting a controversial bill that allowed him to run for a third term, Bloomberg lead Weiner 50%-35%. He also leads Thompson 50%-34%. Is Weiner willing to fight a year long battle he would an underdog in during a time when he could be a major player in a Democratic majority in Congress?

Weiner is also face with the reality that his district, the 9th district of New York, was the only one in the New York Metropolitan Area where President Obama actually lost ground from John Kerry and Al Gore. Where Kerry won the district 56%-44%, Obama beat McCain in the district 55%-44%. Although most district residents are Democrats and Obama ran away with the Queens portion of the district, a special election to fll the seat if Weiner vacates it may produce a nasty divisive Democratic split that could enable a Republican or conservative Democrat to win the seat. (The 9th district produced nasty Democratic primaries in the past, including the divisive battle between Weiner and now City Councilwoman Melinda Katz in 1998 after Charles Schumer vacated the seat to run for the Senate).

Good news for the Democrats is that with Weiner out, it’s likely they will avoid a divisive primary, something that has hurt the Democratic Party in every mayoral race sincethe infamous Ed Koch/David Dinkins battle in 1989. Bill Thompson becomes the instant frontunner with his only opponent, NYC Councilman Tony Avella of Queens, largely unknown and underfunded only six months out from the primary. A well run campaign by Thompson could unite the Democratic Party and help him win an election, but many Democrats appear to approve of Bloomberg, so even with a clear path through the primary, the race is probably uphill for Thompson.

Thompson may still face a competitive primary, if Avella runs a strong campaign to gather support from those who would have supported Weiner, or if another strong Democrat enters the race. Other Democrats looking into the race include Deputy Mayor Patricia Harris, Queens Borough President Helen Marshall, Schools Chancellor Joel Klein, and actor Alec Baldwin. Bloomberg also hasn’t yet received the full support of the city’s Republican party. John Catsimatidis, CEO of the Red Apple Group, has indicated he is running for the Republican nomination.  

On Election Night, I stood by while State Senator-elect Joe Addabbo gave his acceptance speech. I turned to a girl I met that night who worked on his campaign and was close to Malcolm Smith, the incoming majority leader.

“Looks like we control the State Senate” I said

“No, not really.” she explained, “Only Joe and Brian Foley won.”

“But that’s 32 seats, that’s a majority.” I said

She only rolled her eyes at me and walked away.

We didn’t really win the New York State Senate. We won it in name only. In votes, we may be able to get through progressive economic policies, but thanks to socially conservative Democrats. Unfortunately, and I said this as someone who supported, worked for and donated to LGBT causes in New York, the LGBT community is going to find itself under a bus…again…and there’s nothing we can do about until 2010.

I knew Diaz would threaten to bolt in February when I was working for PBS. Malcolm Smith told one of our producers in June that he needed four or more wins in the State Senate for marriage equality. On Monday, I spoke with a friend of mine in Albany who tells me Smith only has 28 votes for marriage equality; No Republicans are on our side. Four Democrats also opposed. I dind’t get their names (though three names are obvious) but I was told they’re all from the city. Ironic, huh?

If we go into these districts in the Bronx and argue that we need Democrats who will vote with us on gay rights, we WILL lose. Trust me on this, I’ve been there. In 2007, I canvassed the neighborhood as part of a local LGBT activist community. The response I got in these heavily Democratic neighborhood was disgusting and scary (more than one young Democrat used the “f” word and there were threats of violence)

Don’t think this is an ethnicity thing either. When marriage equality came up for a vote in 2007, we lost Democrats in Italian-American communities in Brooklyn, Orthodox Jewish communities in Brooklyn and African-American communities in Brooklyn and Queens. Here too, constituencies do not tow the progressive line on gay rights.

Diaz and Esparada will probably vote with us on economic issues. They won’t survive in their districts if they don’t. That’s really more important right now.

They can be anti-gay and survive there.  

Malcolm Smith is a good man. I spoke with him thoroughly about marriage equality and he is a full-fledged supporter. I am willing to bet my bank account on it. If he knew he could get it through despite Diaz and Esparada, he would do it. Let’s face it, what would’ve been the response if Smith told Diaz and Esparada, “Nope, I’m bringing marriage equality to the floor” and they bolted for the GOP? Would we be hailing Smith as a hero? Or a moron for giving up our majority in the middle of an economic crisis for a bill that was never going to pass this session anyway?

How do we get around this? Well, for starters, we reach out to these Bronx communities and try to beat these thugs in primaries in 2010…but also, head upstate and out to Long Island and fight for progressives. We nearly picked up seats in Nassau County (Kristen McElroy) and another in Queens (Jim Gennaro) that would have made Diaz/Esparada’s bigotry moot. If we can elect a black man President of the United States, then by God we can elect a progressive Democrat to represent Rochester in the State Senate.

The news just broke here in New York City on Fox 5. Vito Fossella, the Republican from the 13th district of New York who was arrested for drunk driving two weeks ago and was discovered to have a love child with a mistress will NOT run for reelection in November, but he will serve out his term.  

That opens up another seat ripe for the taking. The district, based in Staten Island and includes parts of Southwestern Brooklyn, has a PVI of D+1. Gore won here in 2000, but Bush won in 2004. This is the third open Republican seat in New York State. Half of the state’s Republicans are retiring.

Possible Republican candidates may include State Senator Andrew Lanza, NYC Councilman James Oddo, Staten Island DA Dan Donovan.

Democratic candidates Steve Harrison and Dominic Recchia are in the race, but an open seat may entice a couple of strong Staten Island Democrats; State Senator Diane Savino, State Assemblyman Mike Cusick, NYC Councilman Michael McMahon.