Crossposted at LibertyAvenuePolitics.com
After narrowly losing the Democratic Primary for NYC Mayor in 2005 to Fernando Ferrer, Congressman Anthony Weiner of Queens appeared to be the instant frontrunner for 2009. At times during his second term, Mayor Bloomberg’s numbers were so bad that it appeared Weiner would waltz into Gracie Mansion.
But Democrats are apparently fortune’s fool when it comes to New York City Mayoral Elections. Since the economic crisis, Bloomberg’s numbers have shot up and their frontrunner, Anthony Weiner, appears to be backing out of the race according to a letter to supporters;
Over the next months, the task of lifting our nation and our city out of the worst economic turmoil in 70 years will be – and I hope agree, should be – my top priority.
So you won’t see me holding campaign rallies. You won’t see me knocking on doors asking for votes.
There is a time for politics, but this is a time for problem solving. And boy do we have a lot of problems to solve in Washington today.
Weiner says he will make a final decision in late Spring, but it is unlikely, given that the election is eight months away and he is behind in the polls, that Weiner would enter the race so late.
A January Quinnipiac poll http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x130… showed that while Weiner was ahead of NYC Comptroller Bill Thompson in the Democratic Party, Weiner would start out well behind Bloomberg in a general election. Despite supporting a controversial bill that allowed him to run for a third term, Bloomberg lead Weiner 50%-35%. He also leads Thompson 50%-34%. Is Weiner willing to fight a year long battle he would an underdog in during a time when he could be a major player in a Democratic majority in Congress?
Weiner is also face with the reality that his district, the 9th district of New York, was the only one in the New York Metropolitan Area where President Obama actually lost ground from John Kerry and Al Gore. Where Kerry won the district 56%-44%, Obama beat McCain in the district 55%-44%. Although most district residents are Democrats and Obama ran away with the Queens portion of the district, a special election to fll the seat if Weiner vacates it may produce a nasty divisive Democratic split that could enable a Republican or conservative Democrat to win the seat. (The 9th district produced nasty Democratic primaries in the past, including the divisive battle between Weiner and now City Councilwoman Melinda Katz in 1998 after Charles Schumer vacated the seat to run for the Senate).
Good news for the Democrats is that with Weiner out, it’s likely they will avoid a divisive primary, something that has hurt the Democratic Party in every mayoral race sincethe infamous Ed Koch/David Dinkins battle in 1989. Bill Thompson becomes the instant frontunner with his only opponent, NYC Councilman Tony Avella of Queens, largely unknown and underfunded only six months out from the primary. A well run campaign by Thompson could unite the Democratic Party and help him win an election, but many Democrats appear to approve of Bloomberg, so even with a clear path through the primary, the race is probably uphill for Thompson.
Thompson may still face a competitive primary, if Avella runs a strong campaign to gather support from those who would have supported Weiner, or if another strong Democrat enters the race. Other Democrats looking into the race include Deputy Mayor Patricia Harris, Queens Borough President Helen Marshall, Schools Chancellor Joel Klein, and actor Alec Baldwin. Bloomberg also hasn’t yet received the full support of the city’s Republican party. John Catsimatidis, CEO of the Red Apple Group, has indicated he is running for the Republican nomination.