Month: January 2009

Baruch College Survey Research for New York 1 (1/25-30, NYC residents, no trendlines):

Anthony Weiner (D): 36

Mike Bloomberg (R-inc): 43

Undecided: 16

Won’t Vote: 4

Bill Thompson (D): 32

Mike Bloomberg (R-inc): 45

Undecided: 19

Won’t Vote: 4

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Nice to see Bloombleberry dithering this far under 50, and the Weiner numbers are especially heartening. I think Thompson might be suffering from a little name-rec lag – his favorables are a nifty 48-10, but some 41% of people have no opinion of him. The poll didn’t ask Weiner’s favorables, but he’s probably better-known because of his 2005 mayoral run.

Interestingly, despite a still-lofty 64-29 approval rating, Bloomhauer doesn’t have much of an advantage in the top-lines horserace nums. Could people be growing sick of Bloombleberry even while they think he’s doing a good job? I can only hope.

P.S. The poll also tested the Dem primary:

Anthony Weiner: 31

Bill Thompson: 22

Tony Avella: 4

Won’t Vote: 6

Avella is a City Councilman. It’s not clear what the D sub-sample was. It’s also not clear to me why Baruch used city residents rather than registered voters, though they say there were 535 RVs out of a total sample of 705.

UPDATE: Quinnipiac also has a poll out today (1/20-25, registered voters, Nov. 2008 in parens):

Weiner: 35 (34)

Bloomberg: 50 (5)

Undecided: 12 (13)

Thompson: 34 (34)

Bloomberg: 50 (49)

Undecided: 13 (14)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

And for the Dem primary:

Weiner: 30

Thompson: 23

Undecided: 47

(MoE: ±3.5%)

The Dems’ numbers are the same, but I’m not sure what explains the Bloomster discrepancy. Could be wording, could be the sample, could be who knows.

(H/t Conspiracy):

On to another installment in our House Recruitment series, and, having just done PA-06, we’re off to another district that has been a consistent, painful tease to the Democrats for the last three cycles: WA-08. Despite a D+2 lean, Republican Rep. Dave Reichert has eked out three close victories in a row.

For background on this district, including its demographics and potential other challengers, a good starting place would be the post-mortem I wrote following Darcy Burner’s second loss. Since not much has changed in the last few months, the names I mentioned there are still probably the likeliest ones to make the race: State Sen. Rodney Tom and State Rep. Chris Hurst.

As you may remember, these two guys were both considering jumping into the 2008 primary race against Burner, although only if the other one didn’t. Finally, Tom jumped in, only to hastily jump back out a few weeks later after Burner’s “Burn Bush” fundraiser showed him the futility of trying to compete for fundraising dollars against a united netroots. (He graciously endorsed Burner and was a big help during the campaign.)

While neither of them would be as purely progressive as Burner, they both have pretty solid voting records in the legislature, and would have stronger appeal to voters who were deterred by the ‘experience’ meme regarding Burner. Hurst, in addition, is a tough-guy ex-cop and is from Reichert’s base of rural southern King County, so he’d be able to run straight at Reichert’s strengths. (One downside for both of them: they’d have to give up their seats to run in 2010.)

Other legislators in the district:

*State Senator Fred Jarrett. Like Tom, he’s a former moderate Republican turned center-left Democrat, and unlike Tom, would be in the middle of his term in 2010… however he’s older, and unlike Tom, I haven’t heard of any interest from him regarding the seat.

*State Senator Claudia Kauffman. She is still getting settled in a more marginal seat and doesn’t seem likely to run, although she would be Congress’s first Native American woman if she ran and won.

*State Rep. Ross Hunter. An ex-Microsoftie himself, he was one of the first Dems to pierce the once-Republican stronghold of the Eastside… in fact, he was widely expected to be the 2006 nominee in WA-08 before health problems derailed him and gave Burner the opening for her first shot. He may be feeling up to the task of taking on Reichert in 2010, and if he does it’s possible that Tom would defer to him.

As for Burner herself, I haven’t heard any indication of her future plans; considering that her numbers went down the second time, I wouldn’t expect a third try. One other vaguely Burner-esque figure that comes to mind, although I haven’t heard a peep out of him lately, is Alex Alben, a well-to-do techie (former exec at Starwave and Real Media) who ran as tech’s candidate in the 2004 primary and lost to milquetoast talk radio host Dave Ross; I could see him at least sniffing out the possibility of becoming the netroots’ horse in the race (which he didn’t try to do in 2004). Also, in this district there’s always the possibility that some other Generic Tech Millionaire will emerge from heretofore-unknown territory and swamp the race with money.

Anybody else I might have missed?

(Cross posed from Kansas Jackass)

With radical right-winger Todd Tiahrt not running for re-election to the Kansas 4th District seat in Congress in favor of a bid for the United States Senate(probably), we’ve got another open congressional seat on our hands in Kansas.

We already talked about who the Republicans might decide to put up, with Susan Wagle, Matt Schlapp and his Mom Sue, and Derek Schmidt all seeming to be likely candidates.

Now we turn to the Democratic side.

Just like our previous lists for Governor and the United State Senate, these are folks I think could potentially make a respectable run at the office in discussion, and they certainly do vary in likelihood and viability.

State Rep. Raj Goyle shocked the Kansas political establishment when he beat incumbent Republican State Rep. Bonnie Huy in 2006, and has since made a name for himself as an able and ambitious member of the state legislature.  As a testament to the quality of a candidate he is, in his reliably Republican district his original election in 2006 wasn’t that close (56%-44%) and his re-election in 2008 was a blow-out: He won 67% of the vote.

Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer certainly does have the name recognition to run, though we aren’t sure how the non-Wichita parts of the KS-04 would react to him.  State Representative Jim Ward and Board of Regents member and 1996 Senate candidate Jill Docking are also both candidate who could certainly raise the cash and create the organization needed to win.

In my eyes, after Docking, we’ve got quite a jump in the likelihood these folks might consider running.

Former State Senator Don Betts ran in 2008 and got smashed by Tiahrt.  While Betts certainly might do better when the seat is open, I’m afraid his political future has been dashed in some pretty cold water.  State Rep. Melody McCray-Miller is a long shot, but, again, could put together the campaign needed to win a seat.

Here’s two way, way, way wild cards:  Former Congressman Dan Glickman and Vice Chairwoman of the Kansas Democratic Party Teresa Krusor.  Both these politicos could certainly raise oodles of cash through connections in Kansas and nationwide.  Also, we know Glickman can run and win in the area- he did represent Wichita for a hundred thousand years in Congress before Tiahrt swept in in the ’90’s.

These are just initial thoughts, again, it’s a long way to 2010, but I think each of these people could run against anyone and win.

And, by-the-by, our money’s on Goyle.

From the St. Petersburg Times:

Democratic state Sen. Dan Gelber is expected tomorrow to become the second major candidate to announce for the U.S. Senate seat to be vacated by Republican Mel Martinez. Gelber has a press conference scheduled for 10 a.m. at his Miami Beach home.

Gelber already has a campaign site set up where you can learn more about his accomplishments. It’s my understanding that Gelber has a lot of support from key movers in the Florida Democratic establishment, but with only 1% support in the latest Democratic primary polling, he sure has a lot to prove over the next year and a half.

The sole Republican holding statewide office in Colorado, Attorney General John Suthers, announced today that he won’t run against newly-appointed Sen. Michael Bennet — and he won’t take a crack against Gov. Bill Ritter, either:

“I realize the decision I’ve made will be disappointing to many Republicans and friends and acquaintances of mine that wanted me to run for Governor or for the United States Senate in 2010 and that it may be disappointing to many Democrats who thought I’d be easy prey if I did,” he said. “But I hope everyone will understand that such decisions have to be made on the basis of very personal values and beliefs. I must ultimately be directed by my inner compass.”

In other good news for Bennet, ex-Rep. Scott McInnis has also told the Denver Post that he won’t run for Senate, though he’s seriously considering making a run against Ritter. Former US Attorney Troy Eid is now pondering a Senate run, though he would have to be considered a significant downgrade from Suthers.

Below is a table listing the committee assignments for the freshmen Senators in the 111th Congress (taken from here):

Note: Michael Bennet, Al Franken and Kirsten Gillibrand have not yet received any committee assignments.

While we don’t cover the legislative process here at SSP (for that, I’ll recommend you check out Kagro X’s new blog, Congress Matters), committee assignments can actually have a big impact on the electoral process. The gig you land can have an impact on what sort of legislation you can pass, how much pork you can direct home, what sort of fundraising you have access to, and what kind of influence you wind up accruing in general.

They can, on occasion, also play a direct role on the campaign trail. In 2006, Conrad Burns argued that replacing him would hurt Montana’s juice in the Senate. To help counter this, Harry Reid promised Jon Tester a seat on the powerful appropriations committee “as soon as possible.” I have to admited I snorted a bit at that formulation (who knows when “as soon as possible” is?), though of course Republicans tried to paint Reid as a liar for not giving Tester the Aprops seat right away.

But Harry Reid kept his word and came through with the assignment a few weeks ago. It’s good news for Tester as he starts thinking about his freshman re-election battle looming four years off in the horizon. And it’s also helpful for other Dems, because it shows that these sort of promises actually mean something.

We’ll bring you a House version of this chart soon.

A number of people who’ve expressed interest in helping gather election data so that we can compile presidential results by CD have asked for a more detailed guide. So here’s what I suggest:

1) Open up this spreadsheet.

2) Find a county where the three right-hand columns (F, G & H) are all blank. (If there’s information in any of those, it means someone has already requested data from that county, or at least investigated it.)

3) Call the phone number listed in column D. (If there’s no phone number, please look it up and paste it into column D.) When I call, this is what I like to say:

Hi. I’m a researcher looking for detailed election results from the 2008 election. Whom might I speak with about this?

Once I have the right person, this is the request I make:

I’m interested in precinct-level results for the Presidential and Congressional races in your county for the 2008 election. Are you able to send that to me?

That’s really you need to ask for – this request is very basic and should be readily understood. If you encounter any confusion, report back here in comments and we’ll try to figure out what the misunderstanding is.

4) At this point, the response you might get will vary. Some election officials will email you on the spot, some will only mail you hardcopy versions, and some might even insist on mailing you a CD. Still others might ask you to fill out a particular request form, or fax them a signed letter, or file a Freedom of Information request.

Just ask what you need to do and you should be given straightforward instructions. If you follow these, you should get the data you’re looking for without a problem. Note: If the county you talk to can only send hardcopies but you don’t have access to a scanner, let us know in comments.

5) Side note: Some counties – and this really cheeses me off, but there’s not much we can do – may require a payment for the data. If that happens, I recommend you do NOT pay for the data. Rather, find out how much the data would cost. Then open up this spreadsheet again and type your username into column F and the cost into column G. We’ll look into making purchases later.

6) Once you get the data, please upload your files to Scribd. (You’ll need to create an account there first.) Then, post the URL(s) in column H. That way we’ll know we have the data, and we’ll know where to find it.

That’s really all there is to it. If you have any questions at all, please feel free to ask in comments.

Just a teaser from Page One Kentucky:

Sources close to Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo tell us that he has informed Governor Steve Beshear that he will announce his campaign for the U.S. Senate tomorrow.

I like Dr. Dan, who lost just 51-49 to Bunning in 2004, despite getting almost no love and outside money. Now we’ll see if this move clears the primary field – and if it pushes Bunning into retirement.

Safe R:

     IN (Open)

     ND (Open)

2010 Final Ratings:

     MA (Open): Tossup

Last Updated: November 1, 2010 at 10:00 AM

Previous Ratings

From Nathan Gonzales:

With Republican and Democratic candidates scrambling for position in the special election in New York’s 20th District, 2008 GOP nominee Sandy Treadwell is not jumping into the race, according to GOP sources.

Treadwell, who spent almost $6 million of his own money last cycle in his 61%-38% loss to Cong. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), expressed interest early on, and even released public statements saying as much, but will not ultimately throw his name into consideration. According to GOP insiders, he is currently out of the Empire State and is not making immediate moves toward another run.

I guess blowing through another $6 mil wasn’t such an appealing thought for Sandy in this economy. Then again, maybe this is the guy we would have wanted, given his abysmal 38% showing. Hell, Kieran Lalor did better in the 19th!

Nathan also tells us about who is in the running:

Meanwhile state Sen. Betty Little (R) who has already announced her candidacy. And according to the Albany Times-Union, the Saratoga County GOP has decided to back Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco and the Greene County GOP is with 2006 gubernatorial nominee John Faso.

With ten different counties covered by the district, this could get very interesting:

There will not be a primary for the special election, instead the party nominees will be chosen by a weighted vote among the county committees. Saratoga carries the most weight in the 10-county district.

Note that this applies to both sides – the Dems won’t have a primary, either (one of the worst aspects of New York’s often-cruddy election laws). So, apart from those of us on the ground in the 20th, we’re mostly gonna just have to hang tight here.