Month: February 2009

RNC chair Michael Steele, in an interview with the Washington Times:

“We want to convey that the modern-day GOP looks like the conservative party that stands on principles,” Steele told the Washington Times. “But we want to apply them to urban-suburban hip-hop settings.”

“It will be avant garde, technically,” he said of the new public relations team he’s signing on. “It will come to the table with things that will surprise everyone – off the hook.” He also added: “I don’t do ‘cutting-edge.’ That’s what Democrats are doing. We’re going beyond cutting-edge.”

Simpsons episode 4F12, “The Itchy and Scratchy and Poochie Show:”

EXECUTIVE

(pause) We at the network want a dog with attitude. He’s edgy, he’s “in your face.” You’ve heard the expression “let’s get busy”? Well, this is a dog who gets “biz-zay!” Consistently and thoroughly.

KRUSTY

So he’s proactive, huh?

EXECUTIVE

Oh, God, yes. We’re talking about a totally outrageous paradigm.

MEYER

Excuse me, but “proactive” and “paradigm”? Aren’t these just buzzwords that dumb people use to sound important? Not that I’m accusing you of anything like that. I’m fired, aren’t I?

MEYERS

No, no, no! He was supposed to have attitude.

SILVERMAN

Um… wh-what do you mean, exactly?

MEYERS

Oh, you know, attitude, attitude! Uh… sunglasses!

EXECUTIVE

Can we put him in more of a “hip-hop” context?

KRUSTY

Forget context, he’s gotta be a surfer. Give me a nice shmear of surfer.

EXECUTIVE

I feel we should rastafy him by … ten percent or so.

LOL!  At first glance I thought this had to be some sort of snark.  It’s actually not.

Michael Steele deathwatch time yet?

http://politicalticker.blogs.c…

Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele says his party is going to launch an “off the hook” public relations campaign that will update the GOP’s image by translating it to “urban-suburban hip-hop settings.”

The new GOP leader told the Washington Times that the party’s defeat in states such as North Carolina and Virginia made it clear they needed a new approach.

“We need messengers to really capture that region – young, Hispanic, black, a cross section…” he said in an interview published Thursday. “We want to convey that the modern-day GOP looks like the conservative party that stands on principles. But we want to apply them to urban-surburban hip-hop settings.”

He added, jokingly, that “we need to uptick our image with everyone, including one-armed midgets.”

Steele described the new multi-platform PR offensive as “avant-garde, technically. It will come to [the] table with things that will surprise everyone – off the hook.” Asked whether that meant cutting-edge tactics, Steele demurred. “I don’t do ‘cutting-edge,'” he said. “That’s what Democrats are doing. We’re going beyond cutting-edge.”

Steele, who began a massive personnel overhaul at the RNC shortly after his election, said he has started meeting weekly with congressional Republicans. He said he’ll be gathering input from House and Senate leaders, not giving instructions – but he criticized national Republican leadership’s focus on party unity as a top priority, saying the failure to devote itself instead to developing fresh faces had cost the GOP.

“We missed the mark in the past, which is why we are in the crapper now,” he said. “We had the White House, the Senate and the House and were not building a farm team over the last years. We could have been ahead of Democrats and their 50-state strategy.”

Steele dismissed the assessments of some Republicans that he needs a deputy to handle areas like logistics, fundraising and candidate recruitment. “I can run this organization just fine,” he said. “There will be no deputy chairman, period. …People who said I can’t make the trains run on time never gave a reason. I say to them, ‘Stuff it.’

“I am not afraid of being held accountable for my leadership,” he said. “The idea I am somehow going to handicap myself before I begin is nuts. I am not going to buy into this mind-set among a few people who probably have never run anything but their mouths.”

Steele defeated a crowded field last month, including sitting RNC chairman Mike Duncan, to claim the party’s top spot.

The short version, which is all I have time for: David Paterson under water in New York, according to SUSA’s latest tracking poll.

By 2:1 Margin, New York Disapproves of Paterson Performance as Governor: 66% of New York State adults today say they disapprove of the job performance of Governor David Paterson

[. . .]

One month ago, 54% of New York adults approved of Paterson’s performance as Governor.

This could just be a one time polling error, but given some of the other polling we’ve seen out of New York recently, I’m inclined to think that it’s the real deal. Bizarre tax/budget schemes and the Senate appointment process appear to have done deep damage to New York’s Governor.  

Quinnipiac University tested several different segments and scenarios in FL-Sen. Here they are (2/11-16, registered voters, 1/21 in parens):

Dem primary:

Pam Iorio: 16

Kendrick Meek: 16

Ron Klein: 14

Dan Gelber: 5

Other: 2

Wouldn’t Vote: 4

Undecided: 43

(MoE: ±5.1%)

GOP primary without Crist:

Connie Mack: 34

Vern Buchanan: 11

Marco Rubio: 6

Allan Bense: 4

Other: 2

Wouldn’t Vote: 5

Undecided: 38

(MoE: ±4.7)

GOP primary with Crist:

Charlie Crist: 53

Connie Mack: 13

Vern Buchanan: 5

Marco Rubio: 3

Allan Bense: 2

Other: 2

Wouldn’t Vote: 1

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4.7)

Crist vs. generic D:

Democrat: 25 (27)

Charlie Crist (R): 48 (47)

Undecided: 27 (27)

(MoE: ±3.1)

Since you probably want a scorecard:

State Sen. Dan Gelber (Miami area)

Mayor Pam Iorio (Tampa)

Rep. Ron Klein (FL-22)

Rep. Kendrick Meek (FL-17)

Former state House Speaker Allan Bense (Panama City area)

Rep. Vern Buchanan (FL-13)

Rep. Connie Mack IV (FL-14)

Former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (Miami area)

And of course, Gov. Charlie Crist needs no introduction. The only people on this list who have actually announced, though, are Meek and Gelber – the field is very much in flux. (North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns has also jumped in on the Dem side, but he wasn’t tested.) Anyhow, I only have two quick comments:

1) Yes, I realize that Connie Mack (aka Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV) is fortunate, politically speaking, to share the exact same name as his famous father, who was a US Senator until 2001. But wasn’t it a bit much for Quinnipiac to prod respondents by wording their question like so: “Is your opinion of Congressman Connie Mack IV, son of former United States Senator Connie Mack, favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?” I think that partly explains his unusually high numbers.

2) Crist looks like he’s riding tall right now in the Republican primary, but a colleague of mine well-versed in Florida politics has me convinced that Crist’s apostasy will guarantee him a fierce challenge from the right. His cheerleading for the stimulus – which the GOP standard-bearers have insanely decided to turn into the ultimate conservative litmus test – is just Exhibit A on his list of sins. We’ll see if the wingnuts can really make him feel pain, or if they’ll just have to suck it up and (gasp!) support someone electable. Obviously, we’re rooting for option one.

(Hat-tip: Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire)

Looks like we can soon dust off those Sparksmania stickers…

Alabama Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks is moving closer to a decision on which statewide office he’ll seek in 2010.

Sparks, a Democrat, said he has narrowed his options to the races for governor or lieutenant governor. He said he plans to announce his choice by mid-March.

“If I could run for ag commissioner again, I’d do it,” said Sparks, who is term-limited from running for re-election to that post. “But I do have a desire to continue serving the people of this state.”

Sparks apparently won’t wait on Lt. Gov. Jim Folsom to tip his hand. Folsom, also a Democrat, is expected to enter the 2010 race to replace Gov. Bob Riley. U.S. Rep. Artur Davis, D-Birmingham, announced his candidacy earlier this month.

Sparks ruled out speculation that he might challenge U.S. Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Tuscaloosa, who is up for re-election in 2010. Shelby’s campaign war chest – currently at more than $13 million – and his Senate seniority give him an overwhelming advantage over any potential challengers.

Brace yourselves.

The Hill:

Rep. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) will announce his candidacy for Senate on Thursday, sources close to Blunt have confirmed.

Blunt has been expected to enter the 2010 race for weeks. His candidacy sets up a potential clash of the families in Missouri, as Secretary of State Robin Carnahan has entered the race on the Democratic side.

If Blunt, the father of unpopular ex-Gov. Matt Blunt, is the best the GOP can come up with here, then I like our chances with Carnahan. But like any statewide Missouri race in recent history, I would expect this to be closely-fought, and the early polling agrees.

However, primaries are still a distinct possibility here — state Treasurer Sarah Steelman is still contemplating a run on the Republican side, and 1st CD Rep. Lacy Clay is still “weighing his options” for the Democratic nomination.

Open seat fans shouldn’t get too excited about Blunt’s 7th CD — Obama lost the district by a 63-35 margin last November, only a slight improvement from John Kerry’s 67-32 beatdown four years earlier.

Very disappointing:

President Obama has settled on Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, a key ally with a record of working across party lines, as his top choice for secretary of health and human services, advisers said Wednesday. […]

It remained unclear whether the White House would finish vetting Ms. Sebelius in time to finalize her nomination by next week. Advisers described her as “the leading candidate” and said there were no others to mention, although they emphasized no final decision has been made. After the troubles with Mr. Daschle and other recent nominees, the White House has intensified its vetting to make sure it thoroughly scrubs its choices before Mr. Obama gives the final signoff.

Assuming Sebelius is nominated and accepts the gig (and you would think she would have publicly declined by now if she were not willing to serve), Democrats will have a pretty barren shelf of possible candidates for the state’s open Senate race in 2010. What a bummer.

SSP currently has this race on our list of Races to Watch, but it’s hard to see how this contest heats up without the presence of Sebelius.

The presidential-results-by-congressional-district crowdsourcing project at Swing State Project just keeps rolling along, and we’re really getting close to total completion. We’re adding 31 more districts today, having scored precinct-level data from some of the largest counties still outstanding (most notably, Queens County, NY, and Wayne County, MI). That leaves only 18 districts with problem counties left to go! (Nassau and Erie Counties, we’re lookin’ at you…)

As always, big thanks to all SSP readers who’ve contributed to this project, with extra thanks for this batch to Democratic Luntz and jeffmd, who rocks an Excel pivot table like nobody’s business. If you want to see a handy list of all districts in one place, look here. If you want a fuller picture, waves one, two, three, and four are here. And if you want an absolutely crushing level of detail, just click on our master database and then on a particular state to see each district in all its precinct-level glory.

District	Obama #	McCain #	Other #	2008 %	2004 %	2000 %
CA-11	169,183	139,863	5,495	53.8/44.5	45/54	45/53
CA-14	213,671	72,707	5,883	73.1/24.9	68/30	62/34
CA-15	174,571	75,753	4,837	68.4/29.7	63/36	60/36
CA-16	154,324	63,975	3,585	69.6/28.8	63/36	64/33
CA-18	104,299	68,629	3,141	59.2/39.0	49/50	53/44
CA-19	124,533	141,013	4,990	46.0/52.1	38/61	39/58
CA-20	77,158	50,146	2,257	59.6/38.7	51/48	55/44
CA-21	93,578	125,293	3,591	42.1/56.3	34/65	37/61
CA-23	172,348	85,261	6,312	65.3/32.3	58/40	54/40
CA-24	160,738	151,678	5,916	50.5/47.7	43/56	43/54
IN-06	133,459	151,596	3,933	46.2/52.5	35/64	40/59
MI-11	196,909	163,190	6,075	53.8/44.6	47/53	47/51
MI-12	212,850	108,752	5,626	65.1/33.2	61/39	61/37
MI-13	167,242	32,722	1,763	82.9/16.2	81/19	80/19
MI-14	189,406	33,533	1,906	84.2/14.9	83/17	81/18
MI-15	219,674	106,322	5,680	66.2/32.1	62/38	60/38
NJ-01	198,196	103,992	3,687	64.8/34.0	61/39	63/34
NJ-02	165,983	137,448	3,967	54.0/44.7	49/50	54/43
NJ-04	150,975	169,848	3,914	46.5/52.3	44/56	50/46
NJ-12	198,145	139,367	3,575	58.1/40.9	54/46	56/40
NY-06	185,890	22,302	598	89.0/10.7	84/15	87/11
NY-07	148,242	38,170	943	79.1/20.4	74/25	75/21
NY-09	111,237	88,307	1,533	55.3/43.9	56/44	67/30
NY-12	154,394	23,504	1,283	86.2/13.1	80/19	77/15
NY-14	212,802	56,946	2,402	78.2/20.9	74/25	70/23
OH-06	142,474	150,551	6,268	47.6/50.3	49/51	47/49
OH-13	183,254	136,316	4,640	56.5/42.1	56/44	53/44
OH-16	152,509	160,914	6,355	47.7/50.3	46/54	42/53
OH-17	179,531	104,773	6,011	61.8/36.1	63/37	60/35
TX-15	100,398	66,501	922	59.8/39.6	49/51	54/46
TX-27	97,830	84,366	1,283	53.3/46.0	45/55	50/50

So what are the highlights and lowlights for this installment? As we’ve seen earlier, California just went from dark blue to even bluer, and that seeped all the way down to some of its reliably red districts (CA-24 in Ventura County went narrowly for Obama… which hopefully will convince Elton Gallegly of the many botched retirement attempts to actually get off the pot this time… and we even came close in CA-19, which stitches together the Sierras and the whiter parts of the Central Valley). A lot of that movement may have to do with California’s huge Latino population, fed up with the GOP’s increasing reliance on immigrant-bashing; parallel movement is seen in Texas, where two mostly-Latino districts (TX-15 and TX-27) also show wide swings in the Democratic direction.

Also, as we’ve seen in other districts, Indiana had some of the biggest Democratic swings in the nation, simply by virtue of the Democrats showing up and competing there for once. Check out IN-06. Remember, this is the district represented by Mike Pence, arch-wingnut who just got promoted from leading the RSC to the #3 position in the whole GOP caucus… and now he’s in a district that McCain won by just 6 points.

On the bad side of the ledger, we’re seeing continued declines in some of the blue-collar white-ethnic districts in the NYC area. These districts suffered some of the biggest declines in that nation from Gore to Kerry, and I thought that might be a temporary 9/11 effect since those districts were some of the ones hardest hit. However, we’ve continued to lose ground in NY-09 (the old-school parts of Brookyln and Queens), and are stagnant in NJ-04 (Ocean and Monmouth Counties, where people from NY-09 go to retire). Not that it matters too much; these districts are outweighed by the overall blue trends in these already-blue states. And in NY-09 they still managed to kick out state senator Serphin Maltese to finally flip control of the New York senate; Obama’s performance may have to do more with 2008-specific racism/latent PUMAism than an overall trend.

Also troubling is what’s going on in eastern Ohio, where we lost ground in OH-06 and OH-17. It’s not hard to explain — OH-06 is considered the Appalachian part of Ohio, while OH-17 is centered on Youngstown, a place similar to Pittsburgh’s collar counties where the once-strong union base is dying off or drifting away as the manufacturing sector evaporates. This is more worrisome since Ohio is a swing state where every vote counts, but as this part of the state is hollowing out while the Columbus and Cincinnati areas are starting to move into our column, it’s not a killer.

Finally, I’m making good on my promise of some updates, based on further refining of early-vote or split-precinct data, or finding more data from small counties where we’d previously made a “close enough” judgment. As you’ll see, the numbers haven’t moved that much, with a few exceptions (perhaps most significantly in IL-18, which we originally thought Obama had won by a few thousand votes but turns out he lost by a few hundred; see also improvements in FL-06 and FL-07, SC-01 and SC-06). This will only be of interest to people who are real sticklers for accuracy or who are keeping their own spreadsheets on this subject. (Of course, since we’re talking about Swing State Project here, that probably describes most of our readership!) The updates tables is over the flip…

District	Obama #	McCain #	Other #	Updated %	What we’d said
FL-01	112,793	234,185	4,349	32.1/66.7	32.2/66.7
FL-02	163,954	199,591	4,207	44.6/54.3	44.7/54.3
FL-03	169,406	60,062	1,636	73.3/26.0	73.0/26.4
FL-04	143,324	233,446	3,765	37.7/61.4	37.6/61.5
FL-06	174,701	228,651	4,662	42.8/56.0	38.4/60.6
FL-07	183,619	213,831	4,516	45.7/53.2	42.0/57.0
FL-08	189,402	168,842	2,742	52.5/46.8	52.4/46.8
FL-11	178,935	89,793	2,691	65.9/33.1	65.7/33.3
FL-12	163,745	168,399	3,112	48.8/50.2	47.7/51.3
FL-13	178,967	199,216	4,525	46.8/52.1	46.7/52.3
FL-14	169,067	226,967	3,827	42.3/56.8	42.3/56.9
FL-15	186,597	200,229	4,638	47.7/51.2	46.9/52.0
FL-16	175,017	192,431	4,038	47.1/51.8	47.2/51.8
FL-23	194,488	39,578	1,152	82.7/16.8	82.8/16.7
FL-24	189,895	197,541	3,937	48.5/50.5	47.3/51.7
FL-25	127,290	129,940	1,382	49.2/50.3	49.3/50.2
IL-08	167,812	129,030	4,208	55.7/42.9	56.6/42.1
IL-11	175,033	147,758	5,059	53.4/45.1	53.6/44.9
IL-14	168,611	132,838	4,298	55.2/43.5	54.4/44.2
IL-15	143,659	151,477	5,264	47.8/50.4	48.8/49.4
IL-17	149,220	112,197	3,837	56.3/42.3	58.1/40.4
IL-18	143,140	143,551	4,823	49.1/49.2	49.6/48.7
IL-19	139,335	171,883	5,616	44.0/54.3	42.0/56.2
IN-04	142,930	185,843	3,557	43.0/55.9	43.0/55.9
IN-08	140,063	151,570	3,727	47.4/51.3	47.4/51.3
IN-09	154,628	160,248	3,930	48.5/50.3	49.1/49.7
KS-02	134,337	170,635	6,013	43.2/54.9	43.1/54.9
KS-03	187,372	177,814	5,186	50.6/48.0	50.6/48.1
LA-01	78,325	221,781	4,868	25.7/72.7	25.3/73.1
LA-02	137,748	46,205	1,873	74.1/24.9	74.3/24.7
LA-03	101,428	167,046	5,411	37.0/61.0	36.6/61.4
LA-04	108,273	162,198	3,152	39.6/59.3	39.6/59.3
LA-05	106,097	177,277	3,718	37.0/61.8	36.7/62.0
LA-06	132,556	184,422	4,297	41.3/57.4	41.4/57.3
LA-07	105,117	188,576	4,953	35.2/63.1	35.0/63.4
MA-01	195,983	102,450	6,984	64.2/33.5	66.0/34.0
MA-02	178,090	117,272	6,269	59.0/38.9	60.3/39.7
MA-05	175,986	117,710	4,968	58.9/39.4	59.9/40.1
MA-06	192,502	135,956	5,474	57.7/40.7	58.6/41.4
MA-07	189,228	97,123	4,948	65.0/33.3	66.1/33.9
MA-08	202,152	32,445	1,612	85.6/13.7	86.1/13.9
MA-09	188,863	120,436	3,545	60.4/38.5	61.2/38.8
MA-10	196,304	155,992	5,461	54.9/43.6	55.8/44.2
MD-01	147,543	215,918	7,136	39.8/58.3	39.8/58.3
MD-02	178,241	113,929	5,684	59.8/38.3	59.6/38.5
MD-03	192,690	128,593	6,523	58.8/39.2	58.6/39.5
MD-04	270,377	45,014	2,486	85.1/14.2	85.1/14.1
MD-05	233,917	119,020	4,520	65.4/33.3	64.9/33.9
MD-06	139,744	200,475	7,528	40.2/57.7	40.2/57.7
MD-07	234,422	59,183	3,929	78.8/19.9	78.7/20.0
MD-08	232,533	77,730	4,461	73.9/24.7	73.4/25.2
MO-08	101,889	173,128	4,651	36.4/61.9	36.3/62.1
OH-18	115,868	132,972	6,226	45.4/52.1	45.5/52.0
OR-02	154,848	193,002	10,473	43.2/53.9	43.3/53.7
OR-04	201,143	161,079	11,698	53.8/43.1	53.7/43.2
PA-02	298,834	31,584	1,435	90.1/9.5	90.7/8.9
PA-08	192,570	160,695	3,905	53.9/45.0	53.6/45.3
PA-15	179,589	139,396	4,158	55.6/43.1	56.3/42.4
SC-01	146,919	196,389	4,298	42.3/56.5	39.9/58.8
SC-02	159,063	189,949	3,567	45.1/53.9	43.2/55.8
SC-03	103,434	188,316	3,803	35.0/63.7	34.4/64.3
SC-04	119,259	190,113	5,254	37.9/60.4	37.9/60.4
SC-05	144,267	167,072	3,635	45.8/53.0	45.2/53.7
SC-06	189,507	103,057	2,829	64.2/34.9	61.9/37.1
TX-01	81,872	184,963	1,433	30.5/69.0	30.5/68.8
TX-04	93,316	213,565	2,262	30.2/69.1	30.1/68.9
TX-06	114,283	172,535	1,870	39.6/59.8	39.7/59.5
TX-08	74,545	215,377	2,058	25.5/73.8	25.4/73.8
TX-10	150,713	187,496	2,941	44.2/55.0	44.3/54.6
TX-11	58,275	184,814	1,915	23.8/75.4	23.6/75.4
TX-13	53,860	181,541	1,786	22.7/76.5	22.9/76.2
TX-17	82,326	172,822	1,992	32.0/67.2	31.8/67.3
TX-19	65,020	170,969	1,693	27.4/71.9	27.4/71.8
TX-23	124,716	117,817	1,630	51.1/48.3	50.9/48.1
TX-26	137,613	193,132	2,213	41.3/58.0	41.8/57.3
TX-31	124,608	172,570	2,879	41.5/57.5	41.5/57.3

Sounds like Robbie Simmons is full of piss and vinegar:

“My consideration of running against Sen. Dodd is not poll-driven,” said Simmons, who criticized Dodd for losing touch with his constituents. “When I first ran for Congress in 1999, the Republican brand was way down in the toilet, and people said I was crazy to run when the GOP was out of favor – and I was able to beat a 20-year incumbent.”

Simmons said that, if he runs, he would face a significant fundraising disadvantage against Dodd. Still, he believes he would be financially competitive enough to run a formidable statewide campaign.

“He’ll go to his pals in the banking industry and get lots of money – and I won’t have that opportunity. But I don’t believe that Senate offices are meant to be bought and sold,” Simmons said.

Even more spunk:

“I’m definitely interested,” Simmons told Capitol Watch. “I’m angry about what’s going on in Washington, D.C. … I’ve worked all my life, and I’ve watched my IRA go down 50 percent, and I’m luckier than most.”

If I were to guess, I’d say that Simmons will go for it. And why not? He certainly has nothing to lose, and a scrappy campaign against a stodgy, troubled incumbent could be pretty fun.

(H/T: Genghis Conn)

PS: In case you’re wondering, yes, Simmons is still an asshole:

“Good for him to stand up for his beliefs,” Simmons said of Gregg. “It’s ironic that the Democratic choices don’t get approved because they don’t pay their taxes, and the Republicans don’t get approved because they won’t sell out their principles.”

This may be what Charlie Cook had in mind last month:

David Leavitt, the former Juab County attorney best known for his successful prosecution of polygamist Tom Green, has been telling folks at the various Republican Party’s Lincoln Day dinners this month that he plans to run for the Senate next year. That is a direct challenge to the incumbent Bennett, who will be seeking his fourth term.

David Leavitt, the brother of former Utah Gov. and Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt, ran for Congress last year, but was defeated at the State Republican Convention by then-incumbent Chris Cannon and eventual winner Jason Chaffetz. Earlier, David Leavitt was defeated in his bid for re-election as Juab County attorney.

Other Republicans mentioned as possible challengers to Bennett include Utah Attorney General Mark Shurtleff and Mike Lee, former counsel to Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr.

(Hat-tip: The Hill)