Tag: OH-05

While it may not even be 2008 yet, here’s a sampling of some of the congressional campaign ads currently on the air across the nation:

NY-20: Sandy Treadwell (R)	IL-14: Bill Foster (D)
OH-05: Robin Weirauch (D)	IL-10: Jay Footlik (D)

Any other ads that we missed? Feel free to post ’em in the comments.

Crossposted at OhioDailyBlog. Jeff did all of the number crunching.

Robin Weirauch (D-Napoleon) pulled in a remarkable $138,152.51, leaving her with $66,587.05 cash-on-hand as of 11/21. She received $38,002.51 from individuals, $1,400.00 from political party committees, and $98,750.00 from PACs. Included are $5,000 from Emily’s List and $2,000 each from committees affiliated with Rep. Rahm Emmanual (D-IL), Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD), Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo), Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Niles), and Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-Cleveland). She also recived funds from various Congressional leadership PACS, including $5,000 from Rep. Kaptur’s PAC. Weirauch also got over $34,000 from union PACs.

But the big news today is the incredible results on ActBlue. General Wesley Clark endorsed Robin today and as of this moment, she has gained $9,638.01 in contributions today (AFTER the closing deadline for the FEC filing.)

Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green) brought in much more than Weirauch.. He reported raising $246,173.98 in contributions, and he loaned himself $50,000, leaving him with $132,488.78 in the bank. Latta received $128,367.38 in contributions from individuals and $117, 806.60 from PACs. Included are $20,000 from the National Republican Congressional Committee, $2,300 from Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Urbana), and $2,000 each from Rep. Deborah Schmidt (R-Upper Arlington) and Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-Loveland). Of course, we knew that the forces of wealth and power would flock to get in some “play to pay” action with Latta, and they did.

Two observations:

This remains a VERY difficult situation for a Democrat. This District was built precinct by precinct to protect it’s former “do nothing” reactionary representative. Latta enjoys (undeserved) name recognition in Wood County which tends to negate Weirauch’s strength here.

But, the ODP, the DCCC and the DNC ARE fully engaged in this campaign. They are providing people, money and resources to the Weirauch campaign.

This all leads up to a series of the campaign stops coming up all day this Saturday with Governor Strickland.

This Saturday is “(D)” Day for OH-05.

When you’re as hard-pressed for cash as the NRCC is, I’m sure that the last thing you want to do is dump money that you don’t have into defending two deeply red districts in off-year special elections.  But the NRCC is doing just that — spending precious cash to defend the seats of the late Reps. Paul Gillmor (OH-05) and Jo Ann Davis (VA-01).

As a refresher, let’s take a look at how red these districts really are.  OH-05 has a PVI of R+10.1, and VA-01 sits at R+8.9.  To put it another way, these districts supported Bush by 21 and 22-point margins in 2004.  On any given day, these districts should be rock solid turf for the GOP.

But, as Roll Call reports, the NRCC is taking nothing for granted, making some independent expenditures against VA-01 Dem nominee and Iraq vet Phil Forgit on behalf of state Delegate Rob Wittman, the GOP candidate:

NRCC officials refused to comment about the committee’s strategy in the special election.

But the committee’s independent expenditure arm this week spent almost $8,000 to produce an ad attacking Forgit that hasn’t yet aired, bringing its total expenditures for anti-Forgit activity to almost $39,000. The NRCC also has spent about $3,100 on phone banks to help Wittman.

As Roll Call implies, that expenditure will balloon very shortly, as the NRCC buys the necessary ad time to put their Forgit attack ad on the air.

We can also expect some NRCC-funded fireworks in Ohio’s 5th district, where Republicans have spent over $9000 for the production of another ad (this one positive in tone, apparently) in support of Republican Bob Latta.  Latta, as you may recall, won a bruising primary against state Sen. Steve Buehrer earlier this month.

Is the NRCC really sweating over the prospect of losing these districts?  It would be a shocker for either of these races to end up in the Dem column, but perhaps Republicans are intent on playing it safe, because they can’t afford not to.

Former Democratic presidential contender Gen. Wesley Clark has a post up on his WesPAC blog, praising Robin Weirauch (D-Napoleon) and calling for donations for the special election that is now only twelve days away. Clark describes Weirauch as:

the daughter of a retired Master Sergeant in the United States Air Force, [who] will do more than simply repeat slogans like “Support the Troops.” She will fight to bring a responsible end to the war in Iraq and make sure our veterans receive the health care they deserve.

This is just the latest of many signs I am seeing that the Weirauch campaign is really taking off (examples after the break).

* Weirauch has been endorsed by Emily’s List and a host of labor unions, which means that she has logistical and strategic support for a huge get-out-the-vote election in a contest that will be marked by very low turnout — she did not have Emily’s List’s support in her past races against deceased incumbent Paul Gillmor (R);

* The DNC is deploying internet-based GOTV support;

* Gov. Ted Strickland reportedly will campaign with Weirauch in the next few days, and Sen. Sherrod Brown did so a few days ago — these two political superstars each carried the 5th District in 2006;

* Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) hosted a big fund-raiser for Weirauch last night, and all the other Democratic members of Congress from Ohio are actively supporting her as well (I was at a fund-raiser two night ago featuring Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones(D-Cleveland));

* I just went to ActBlue.com and Weirauch is second on the list of busiest recipients this week;

* Even hard-core Republican voters in the 5th District were extremely turned off by the bitterly negative GOP primary and many will either stay home or vote for change — I heard at the Weirauch fund-raiser two nights ago that the father of a well-known former GOP state legislator, himself an outspoken right-winger, is supporting Weirauch.

This is a race that will set the stage for 2008, and an upset victory is looking more and more possible. Please click here now and support the Weirauch campaign!

Cross-posted at Ohio Daily Blog

With the December 11th special election to fill the seat of the late Rep. Paul Gillmor (R), we now have our first poll of the race.

Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Bob Latta (Nov. 11-12, likely voters):

Robin Weirauch (D): 36%
Bob Latta (R): 50%

Generic Democrat: 37%
Generic Republican: 45%
(MoE: ±5.2%)

This is a district that gave Bush 61% of its vote in 2004, so Latta’s 50% and especially the generic R tallies are especially underwhelming.  POS isn’t the most reputable of Republican pollsters, but the result is still interesting.  Weirauch has a tough hill to climb and not much time to do it, but Latta isn’t blowing her out of the water yet.

Today’s the day! Below is a list of poll closing times and races to watch in five states:

State	Polls Close	Races to Watch	Results	Key Blogs
Kentucky	6pm and 7pm EST	Governor/Lt. Gov, Secretary of State, Attorney General, Auditor, Treasurer, Agriculture Commissioner	KY SoS	Bluegrass Report
Mississippi	8pm EST	Governor, Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, Auditor, Treasurer, Agriculture Commissioner, Insurance Commissioner, SD18, SD29, SD43, SD46, SD52, HD12, HD20, HD43, HD99, HD102	MS SoS	Cotton Mouth
New Jersey	8pm EST	SD01, SD02, SD08, SD12, SD39, HD01 (x2), HD02 (x2), HD08 (x2), HD11 (x2), HD12 (x2), HD14 (x2), HD39 (x2)	NJ.com	Blue Jersey
Ohio	7:30pm EST	OH-05 Special Primary	OH SoS	BSB | ODB
Virginia	7pm EST	SD01, SD06, SD22, SD27, SD28, SD33, SD34, SD37, SD39, HD32, HD33, HD34, HD40, HD50, HD51, HD52, HD67, HD83, HD86	VA SBE	Raising Kaine

Special thanks to The Green Papers, which was the source for several of the poll closing times. One note: the New Jersey state House races are listed slightly oddly, as each numerical district actually has two seats up for grabs.

If you have any races happening in your area that aren’t on this list, let us know in the comments. And if you’d like to give any predictions for any of today’s contests, now is the time to share them. How many counties will Ernie Fletcher win in Kentucky? Will Bob Latta prevail in Ohio? How far will Virginia Democrats go?

Other useful links: PoliticsNJ’s race ratings | WaPo’s key Virginia races

Let’s do a little exercise in “compare and contrast” between reality and the nonsense that Bob Latta and Steve Buehrer are peddling here in their primary race to replace Paul Gillmor in Ohio District 5. Both have filed claim and counter claim that the THEY are really the most reactionary wingnut running. (Boy, now THERE is a dubious distinction!)

There was a brilliant episode of the “West Wing” where an inside the Beltway political consultant convinces the Bartlett staff that they should support a flag burning amendment because some poll showed that a large majority of voters are “in favor” of it.

But Marilee Matlin played another consultant who pointed out that although a majority of voters might say “yes” to such an amendment, they attach VERY little importance to it. (Which happens to be true.)

Basically, the “Bob and Steve Show” is engaging in blatant hucksterism and demagoguery by ONLY focusing on “issues” that gain the support of their most rabid base while absolutely NOT addressing the issues that actually matter to Americans.

The evil, mean-spirited, mudslinging going on between these two, is just pathetic. While they babble on about school prayer, the “defense of marriage,” and flag burning, they have nothing so say about the REAL issues facing our nation.

Let’s take a look at the most recent  Rassmussen Report on what issues are most important to voters and, more importantly who they trust the most on those issues.

Flag burning Bob? School prayer Steve? Sorry. Complete nonstarters. Here are the top issues to American voters ranked by how important they are to the voter.

And, who do Americans trust the most on those issues? More bad news for Bob and Steve.

The garbage that these charlatans are peddling will enable them to eek out a narrow victory for one or the other in a GOP primary, but they are just painting themselves into a corner for the general election.

Ever since Cheney and Rove were able to wrest control of our Nation via first the Supreme Court in 2000 and then 218,000 “values voters” in Ohio in 2004, the reactionary right has come to rely more and more on these provocative but ultimately meaningless “wedge” issues.

And now, they are increasingly on the losing side of both the wedge issues and the real issues. But when it comes to the most important issue facing our country, all of a sudden Latta and Buehrer run out of anything to say. According to an article in today’s Toledo Blade:

“Both GOP candidates prefaced their football analogies by admitting they lack a full understanding of the situation, saying that congressmen ought to rely on recommendations from a military hierarchy that ultimately reports to the Oval Office.”

And then Latta resorts to that most favorite neo-con subterfuge– blame it on the media.

“Mr. Latta said adhering to the wisdom of generals is better than setting military policy based on public opinion polls. A CBS News poll two weeks ago found that 67 percent of Americans disapprove of how Mr. Bush is handling the Iraq war.

Mr. Latta blames the media for the war’s unpopularity. “

Gee guys, you don’t think that it could it be the thousands of American soldiers killed? Could it be that the American people have come to grasp that there was never any WMDs? Could it be the TRILLIONS of their tax dollars going to waste at a time when we face huge natural disasters at home?

So while Latta and Buehrer play their stupid game of trying to see who can scare away the greatest number of GOP primary voters, the rest of us have to deal with the horrors of the real world.

The first reporting deadline for the special election to replace deceased Rep. Paul Gilmor (R) was yesterday, and the big story is that ideological extremist State Sen. Steve Buehrer (R-Delta) has a large Club for Growth-generated cash advantage over the conservative but more pragmatic State Rep. Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green), whose father preceded Gillmor and who is leading in the GOP primary according to the limited polling data available. On the Democratic side, third-time candidate Robin Weirauch (D-Napoleon) is far back in fund-raising but has received a recent boost from unions, and she faces no serious primary opposition to deplete her war chest. The primary is set for regular general election day, November 6th.

Details after the flip. And visit Ohio Daily Blog for continuing coverage!

Buehrer reported total fund-raising after refunds of $256,017.00, less than the “more than $260,000” he had told the Toledo Blade to expect. Of that amount, $13,000 is from PACs and 60% of the rest is from individuals whose contributions are earmarked as relating to the Club for Growth, and almost all of them non-residents. Buehrer’s cash-on-hand is $188,217.97. His campaign has been buttressed by large independent TV buys by Club for Growth, attacking Latta as “tax happy” despite a generally anti-tax voting record.

Latta reported  $238,582 in total contributions, 90% of them Ohio residents, with $23,050 from PACs. Latta has spent more than Buehrer, leaving only $86,485.36 as cash-on-hand on his report. However, today’s Toledo Blade reports that Latta’s current cash on hand is actually $150,185, attributable in large part to loaning himself $50,000. Of course, Latta sees a positive message in the out-of-state/in-state contrast (quotes from the Blade story):

“Not only do [local Ohioans] contribute, but they’ve got relatives and friends within the district,” Mr. Latta said. “It’s a big advantage for the folks at home to support you.” …

“What connection do these [Club for Growth] people have to northwest Ohio?” Mr. Latta asked. “Do we want this group to be able to buy an election? I don’t think that’s what voters want.”

Republicans Mike Smitley (R-Van Wert), Mark Hollenbaugh (R-Bowling Green), and Fred Pieper (R-Paulding) did not raise enough money to require filing.

On the Democratic side, Weirauch reported taking in $40,354.89 in contributions, of which $4,750 is from Democratic party committees and $2,200 is from PACs. Over $19,000 is from individual contributions too small to require itemization. She reported $26,845.17 cash-on-hand, but the Blade reports that she received an additional $11,000 from unions after the filing deadline, so at the moment she has $37,845 on hand. “I’m very enthusiastic about our fund-raising and I’m confident we’ll have the resources we need,” Weirauch told the Blade. Wierauch’s primary opponent George Mays, who is self employed in the karaoke and disc jockey business, did not raise enough to require filing.

I’m (pleasantly) surprised by the news about union support for Weirauch, as I had heard that they were leery about supporting Wierauch strongly this time around after seeing her lose two prior attempts at the Congressional seat. If their attitude has changed, it has to be due to the nastiness of the GOP primary fight between Buehrer and Latta (extraordinarily negative for this staid, largely rural district), and perhaps the impressive ground-game effort displayed by the Weirauch camp, both tending to improve her prospects in the general election.

I’m sure that Weirauch would decline to answer the question of which GOP front-runner she’d rather face, but in my mind it would unquestionably be Buehrer, whose ideological extremism and out-of-state support would surely be negatives to moderate and independent voters in the general election (set for December 11th). With his larger war chest and more help from PACs like Club for Growth, Buehrer could conceivably make that come true, although Latta still seems to me the candidate to beat on the GOP side.

I’m Robin Weirauch. I’m running for Congress in the December 11th special election in Ohio’s 5th District and I need your support!

When I heard that President Bush had vetoed the bill expanding SCHIP, I couldn’t believe it. The State Children’s Health Insurance Program helps millions of American children whose families are struggling.

I recently spoke with a single mother from our district that told me she has worked at least two jobs her whole adult life but has never had health insurance through her work. Her daughter has been covered by the SCHIP program since infancy.  She told me she wouldn’t know what she would do without the program.

Read the rest of the story and see my video message after the jump:

She was glad to have the choice with SCHIP between three plans so that she could, for example, choose a plan that would give vision coverage for her daughter, which she has needed most of her young life.  She was not aware of the President’s veto of the expansion of the program or of the fact that the President’s budget did not provide enough funding to cover all those already in the program. She would be in serious financial trouble if her daughter’s healthcare coverage through SCHIP were not available.

She has to pay for her own insurance coverage and is forced to put off the regular checkups that are recommended until she can afford to pay the deductible.  She delays her vision checkup and replacing her glasses for much longer than recommended as she must save up to be able to afford it. If she also had to pay for her daughter’s coverage, she wouldn’t be able to take care of her own health needs.

People often ask me what difference one Representative can make in Congress? But when a 15-vote margin will decide whether American children in need will receive health care or be struck by the business end of George Bush’s veto pen, it becomes evident that every vote counts.

This is where I need your help.  We all know that the online community can  bring much needed attention to competitive special elections.  Senator Sherrod Brown and Governor Ted Strickland both won this district and I believe that we will win this special– but I need your support! 

While my Republican opponents Bob Latta and Steve Buehrer are focused on tearing each other down, I’m focused on the issues that matter to working families. Where would the Republican candidates be on this critical issue? Would they side with the bipartisan coalition fighting for children or with the President who denies them care? Voters deserve to know. They know where I stand– for kids, every time.
Please visit my website to learn more and support our campaign today!

Thank you!

Robin Weirauch

Ohio Governor Ted Strickland has set the primary and special election dates to fill the vacancy of the late Republican Rep. Paul Gillmor.  The primary will be held on November 6th, and the special election on December 11th.

Ohio’s 5th is sharply Republican turf, with a PVI of R+10.  To put that into perspective, only six Democrats in the House represent districts with a redder hue.  State Rep. Bob Latta, a Republican, has thrown his hat into the ring, but he may face primary competition.  For the Democrats, 2004 and 2006 nominee Robin Weirauch may try again.  Weirauch, a Bowling Green State University employee, scored 33% of the vote on her first attempt and 43% last year in a tough statewide environment for Ohio Republicans.  I’ve also heard that Judge James Sherck, a Democrat who contested this seat four times from 1978 to 1984 (and only came close once, in ’82), and Tiffin city councillor Mike Grandillo as possible entrants.

Race Tracker: OH-05