Tag: Tom Cole

Faced with the likelihood of unprecedented November losses and piss-poor fundraising, the NRCC has been forced to make some very hard choices lately, including ones to cut the plug on GOP Reps. like Marilyn Musgrave, Tom Feeney, Michele Bachmann, and Joe Knollenberg. Understandably, though, some major GOP allies are furious with NRCC Chair Tom Cole for abandoning some staunch social conservatives without so much as a life preserver.

From The Hill:

The Family Research Council’s (FRC) political arm ripped Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) Thursday for withdrawing ad spending on behalf of two endangered Republican candidates.

FRC President Tony Perkins said in a letter to Cole, chairman of the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC), that the committee “is abandoning social conservative candidates” by pulling ads from the reelection races of Reps. Marilyn Musgrave (R-Colo.) and Michelle Bachmann (R-Minn.). […]

Perkins, an influential conservative leader, said in his letter that he believes Cole, whose committee has been hemorrhaging money in an uphill battle against Democratic congressional candidates, “made a grave error in judgment” by pulling ads from Musgrave’s and Bachmann’s districts.

“The left is attacking both of these outstanding women because they are true conservatives,” Perkins said. “They vote pro-life and pro-family.”

Perkins wrote that both candidates are in “winnable districts,” and that “pulling funds from their campaigns sends the wrong message to their supporters and gives their opponents a chance to produce headlines that the NRCC has undermined these campaigns.”

“This is no time to cut and run from a fight,” Perkins wrote.

He added that he will “urge supporters” of the FRC to stop contributing to the NRCC “until it starts supporting and fighting for conservative candidates in close races.”

Time’s almost up, Mr. Cole.

The U.S. News & World Report:

The document provided to Whispers is no gag: It comes from one of the key House GOP vote counters. The source called it a “death list.” The tally shows several different ratings of 66 House Republicans in difficult races or open seats held by retiring Republicans. “Rating 1” finds 10 Republicans “likely gone.” Those districts are New York 13, Alaska, Arizona 1, Virginia 11, New York 25, Illinois 11, Florida 24, Michigan 7, Nevada 3, and North Carolina 8. Under “Rating 2,” nine Republican seats are listed as “leaning Democratic.” Under “Rating 3,” some 22 GOP seats are listed as “true toss-up.” The fourth rating, “lean Republican,” finds 15 seats in the category that comes with this warning: “If there’s a wave, some could be in trouble.” The last “likely Republican” rating finds another 11. Only three Democratic districts are seen as “hopeful” GOP pickups. They are Florida 16, Pennsylvania 11, and Texas 22. Another 10 Democratic seats are listed as “possible” pickups.

Republicans facing the music? Or just a sly way of gaming expectations? In any event, I’d buy the full list for a dollar!

Here’s one House member that Republicans should add to their deathwatch, even though he will be re-elected: NRCC Chair Tom Cole.

(Hat-tip: Andy Dufresne)

UPDATE: “The Fix” says that the NRCC is pulling out of CO-04, FL-24, and MN-06. Maybe that’s true, but the NRCC did dump $375K against Democrat Betsy Markey in Colorado yesterday.

LATER UPDATE: The Politico says that the NRCC plans to pull out after their current $375K buy expires in Colorado’s 4th CD.

Well, I knew that times were lean at the NRCC, but this is a whole ‘nother level of stinginess:

Visiting Huntsville and Montgomery on Monday, U.S. Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla. gave a $5,000 check from the NRCC to each one: 5th District GOP hopeful Wayne Parker, a Huntsville insurance executive, and 2nd District candidate state Rep. Jay Love of Montgomery.

Cole said the NRCC expects to put about $80,000 into each of the races before the Nov. 4 general election. That’s as much as the committee plans to put into any campaign. He said the races are among the top 10 priorities for the NRCC, and he expects candidates will have to spend at least $1 million to win in each district.

It’s difficult to imagine the NRCC spending a mere $80K on any race among their “top 10 priorities”, especially in the 2nd District, where the DCCC has reserved nearly $600K worth of ads for the open seat race. Just take a look at the kind of money that Tom Reynolds threw around last time (see here, here, and here).

Now, I realize that the NRCC is cash-strapped, but they do have nearly $8.5M on-hand, and surely they’ll have much more than that in the bank to spend come fall. Cole’s statement is altogether baffling. Is he just trying to light a fire under local donors, or is he saving the bulk of the NRCC’s booty for their other eight “priorities”?

(Hat-tip: Left in Alabama)

Tom Cole dead? Not quite, but John Boehner definitely just took some advice from Bob Barker and spayed his NRCC Chair:

• The NRCC will now wade into competitive GOP primaries when appropriate. This is a significant shift, as Cole’s policy has been to stay out of such contests even when the party believes one candidate would clearly be the best general election bet. In Illinois and Louisiana in particular, Republicans suffered because they fielded a poor nominee. The race to replace retiring Rep. Vito Fossella (R) in New York, which could draw several GOP contenders, could be the first high-profile test of the new policy.
• There will be an “audit” of the three special election losses conducted by two as-yet-unnamed Republican lawmakers, designed to figure out what went wrong and how to avoid repeating those mistakes in the future. This could be an embarrassing exercise for Cole and his top staff, but they agreed to it, likely because they didn’t have a choice.
• The party will step up its efforts to establish special fundraising committees for seats with contested GOP primaries occurring late in the season, which will raise cash that will automatically go to the eventual nominees. This fairly common practice will prevent those nominees from starting the general election race at a financial disadvantage after a costly primary. This effort will be led by Rep. Pete Sessions (Texas), who lost to Cole in the race to chair the NRCC for this Congress. (Emphasis added.)

Oh, and one of the two “auditors” will be Tom Davis, who just wrote a scathing memo about the GOP’s problems as a party. I’d be surprised if his report on Cole is any less harsh.

Cole is in denial mode, though, flatly contradicting Boehner by announcing that, with regard to primaries, NRCC “policy hasn’t changed. There seems to be some confusion about that.” And just to prove he’s utterly delusional, he invoked Lou Gherig:

I feel like I’m the luckiest guy in the conference to have this job.

And we feel lucky to have you, too, Tommy.

Call it the “Deathwatch Watch” – the Hill writes about us:

Swing State Project, a blog focused on congressional races from the 2004 swing states, started the “Tom Cole Deathwatch” in March, after Democrat Bill Foster won former House Speaker Dennis Hastert’s (R-Ill.) old seat in a special election. The blog updated the “deathwatch” last week, asking readers to guess how long it would be before Cole was ousted.

The optimism among liberal blogs over this year’s congressional races is in stark contrast to the mood of conservatives.

“Unless congressional Republicans plan on making a dramatic course correction on Iraq withdrawal, SCHIP [the State Children’s Health Insurance Program], healthcare reform and fair trade, they’re in for a world of hurt in November,” said James Lambert, one of Swing State Project’s editors.

The premise for the article, though, is that rightwing bloggers are furious with Cole and want to see him get booted. Given how utterly impotent the conserative blogosphere is, this probably means that Cole is actually more likely to stay on.

In fact, a separate Hill piece about the Republicans who (well, sorta) matter – ie, the House Republican caucus – suggests that Cole (and John Boehner) are safe. That’s why I love this deathwatch – we win whether Cole stays or goes.

Twelve states still have open filing (or will have open filing).  Then there’s Virginia with its filing date (passed) and the party congressional district conventions.  This does not include states like Massachussetts and hawaii with an entirely Democratic delegation.  In the remaining states, New York has the most Republican members of congress (6) but Oklahoma has the most who have not announced retirement (4).  In total, these states have 36 GOP representatives with eight retirements.

Alaska has a June 2 filing deadline.  The case for a Don Young retirement is simple.  It will allow him to spend all his remaining cash on hand on his legal defence.  The seat already has an announced Republican who has filed, Sean Parnell.  Young still has a huge cash advantage over his opponents and would, at the least, stand a good chance at defeating Parnell.  We’ll know by June 2.

My second ranked retirement choice would be a surprise but given the flak he’s taken, it seems like an interesting personal choice.  Tom Cole has a safe seat in Oklahoma (June 4 deadline) but has receiveds merciless criticism, particularly from Boehner.  Given that the last NRCC head ts retiring this year, this job takes a lot out of its current place holder and gives little in return (Tom Davis was, after all, shoved out of the US Senate race in VA).  Maybe he’ll decide to chuck it, do his best, and say sayonara.

None of the other Oklahoma incumbents (Sullivan, Lucas, and Fallin) seem even remotely likely to leave.  Others have been on rumor lists in the past so they migh seem like possible retirement choices.

Colorado is the next state out of the chute and Marilyn Musgrave was frequently mentioned as being pressed to drop out.  There is no talk of that, Doug La,born is a first-term true believer and Tancredo is the one leaving.  No change.

Wyoming is next and Barbara Cubin has already announced she’s departing.

No, next on my list is someone who is independently wealthy, 65 years old, but who is unopposed.  That would be Jim Sensenbrenner in Wisconsin.  If Sensenbrenner.  Sensenbrenner would have the added benefit of being able to basically name his successor.  (other Wisconsin Republicans are Tom Petri and Ryan).

Fourth and fifth on my list are two Washington Republicans, Cathy McMorris Rogers and Doc Hastings.  McMorris Rogers missed a lot of time while giving birth.  She may prefer spending more time in a more stable environment than being a member of the House representing a district coveriong Spokane.  Hastings is a member of the Republican class of 1994.  He lost a lot of clout when the Democrats took power and was frequently mentioned early on as a possible retiree.  Dave Reichert spent seemingly 20 years hunting the Green River Killer.  I don’t see him giving up on a House seat he holds (if barely) this soon in his career.  Lose, yes.  Retire, no.

6 and 7. John McHugh won easily in 2006 and faces an opponent, in Mike Oot, with a slim $15,415 in the bank. OTOH, McHugh was mentioned on this site IIRC as possibly stepping down and running for a State Senate set recently taken by Darrell Aubertine.  McHugh is not exactly rolling in cash with a paltry $261,698.It’s a toss up district (R+0.2)in a Democratic state where the GOP seems to be doing its best to disappear.  Randy Kuhl has the safest Republican district in the state (R+5, NY-29).  Kuhl has a volcanic temper, though, and trails Eric Massa in cash on hand by $365 K (Kuhl) to $565 K (Massa).  My guess is that Kuhl is far more likely to lose this seat than give it up.  Still, since another candidate might well do better, retirement is possible.  (Peter King is safe in the other activer NY seat as he has money ($802 K) and lacks a challenger.

8. Mike Castle.  Castle has plenty of money but he earlier suffered a stroke (which he and his staff covered up).  Health problems are the only thing that could drag Mike from defending this D+7 seat.

9. Marilyn Musgrave.  Musgrave was pushed to retire early as she has badly underperformed her district.  Instead, the feisty conservative has tried to position herself as more bi-partisan.  I think it’s a crock but it does show she’s running again.  Doug Lamborn has a primary opponent but he’s already running again.  (The Colorado system shows some districts earlier than others based on the district assembly date for the party.)  Tom Tancredo has long since announced his retirement.

10.  John Shadegg.  Shadegg already retired once and has a pile of cash.  He’s running.  Bur Jeff Flake is running for a leadershio position and Trent Franks has shown no inclination to join the retirees.  Rick Renzi is awaiting his defence and retirement.

Nothing happening:  KS (Moran and Tiarrht); LA (the newly elected Scalise, Alexander, and Boustany); MN (Kline and Bachmann).

Don Young may realistically retire.  Anybody else seems highly unlikely.

Depending on who you talk to, it sure sounds like John Boehner and crew want to send Tom Cole’s sorry ass packing — and fast.  From The Hill:

Speculation continued to swirl that some members of the leadership team want to remove Cole and install Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), a former NRCC chairman, as his replacement. One former senior GOP leadership aide close to the leadership team said there have been  “quiet conversations” with Davis about taking the NRCC chairmanship, and that GOP leaders believe he will do so if asked.

Finding an appropriate way to get rid of Cole, though, remains the primary obstacle, the source said.

“Leadership can’t fire Tom Cole,” the former staffer said. “If they could, yes, they would. It doesn’t appear that the conference wants to self-initiate, but people at the leadership table think he needs to step down and he needs to step down soon.”

Thursday afternoon, the source said, leaders were trying to find a way to pressure Cole to make several changes at the party committee that he may not be able to stomach, such as firing staff and accepting new hires of the leaders’ choosing. Leaders want the change at the top to occur before the Memorial Day recess, sources said.

You may recall that, last September, Cole threatened to resign after Boehner attempted to force some personnel changes at the NRCC.  So this would be a roundabout way of showing Cole the door.

How long do you give Cole?  Two weeks?  Or another six months?

Sure, Tom Cole may be somber, but that doesn’t mean that he isn’t delusional:

“Clearly, we have got problems that are deep and serious in terms of how we are going to do in the fall elections,” Cole said.  “Having said that… we haven’t lost as a party because of the ideological agenda on the other side. The obvious challenge we face is we had somebody running as a Republican, pro-life, pro-gun, who wants to cut taxes, wants to control spending. That’s not particularly in step with where the Democratic majority is. So, that is going to create some opportunities for us. I think those issues clarify and reinforce [our agenda].”

Roy Blunt joins in on the insanity:

GOP Whip Roy Blunt downplayed the GOP’s problems, saying that “six months ago, Rudy Giuliani was the front runner in the Republican contest and Barack Obama did not have a chance.”

Blunt said that Democrats won in Mississippi and Louisiana by running “on what the GOP is for.”

“So we know now that the message works,” he said. “So we have to be sure that nationally, we connect the message with the Republican Party, rather than the other party.”

I understand the art of spin, but did these clowns not watch the election that just unfolded?  Sure, Childers embraced conservative social values that made him a good fit with his Northern Mississippi district.  But he also ran as an unabashed economic populist, and launched scathing attacks against Greg Davis for yukking it up with Dick Cheney.

On oil:

“We need to strip away the subsidies from ExxonMobil and Big Oil,” Childers said to a question about high gasoline prices. “They’re not going to get a lot of sympathy from me.”

On healthcare:

Travis Childers will fight to improve the quality of healthcare, while lowering costs for working families.  He supports expanding the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (S-CHIP), which will provide affordable healthcare to tens of thousands of middle-income children in Mississippi.

On the economy and corporate trade deals:

Our leaders should have been thinking of the economic problems we face today when they passed unfair trade deals that sent our jobs overseas, gave billions in subsidies to big oil companies, ignored the home mortgage crisis, and kept spending as the deficit and national debt hit all time highs.

On Iraq, Childers was the only candidate who favored withdrawal:

He was the only one of five candidates — three Republicans, two Democrats — at a campaign stop in Nesbit last week who said point-blank that U.S. troops don’t belong in Iraq. […]

Childers said he favors coming up with a plan to withdraw troops over 12 to 18 months and leave the Iraqis to fight among themselves, as they have for thousands of years.

He said he’s amazed more people on the campaign trail haven’t asked about a national debt of more than $9 trillion.

“We’re spending our money, folks, in Iraq. We need to be spending our money in America.

If all that is what morons like Tom Cole and Roy Blunt consider a “Republican platform”, then maybe their party isn’t doomed to the electoral dustbin after all.

However, we all know that that is pretty damn far from the truth.

Keep dreaming, GOP.

As David articulated last night, the “every man for himself” attitude that is crippling the House GOP conference will only grow stronger in the weeks and months ahead now that the NRCC is left with no excuses for losing a safe seat in Mississippi.

Already, they’re tripping over themselves to lay the blame at someone’s feet:

Texas Rep. Jeb Hensarling, who chairs the conservative Republican Study Committee, defended the campaign chairman during the closed-door session, saying “the problem was not Cole, but the Republican brand” and the lack of well-formulated policy planks articulated by the party.

But other members did point fingers; Tennessee Rep. Marsha Blackburn complained that newly-appointed GOP Sen. Roger Wicker did not do enough to help Republican Greg Davis retain his seat, members in attendance said afterward. Blackburn also explained that an ongoing feud between Republican Sen. Thad Cochran and the state’s recently retired GOP Sen. Trent Lott also played a part in the loss.

How bad is it?  Rumors are raging that Cole might be sacked in favor of retiring Rep. Tom Davis:

The finger-pointing wasn’t just limited to the conference room in the Capitol basement where members met; former NRCC Chairman Tom Davis, who has become a pointed critic of his party and President Bush since announcing his retirement earlier this year, gave members a 20-page memo he typed up over the weekend about what the party needs to do to improve its brand nationally, the Virginia Republican told reporters after the meeting.

“This is the floor,” Davis said, stopping his foot on the concrete. “We’re underneath it.”

Davis, however, dowmplayed a rumor that he would be elevated to replace Cole, and the current job holder said no major changes were in the works at the committee “yet.”

It’s no surprise that a lot of House GOPers would want to sack Cole’s sorry ass, but they may not have a chance with only six months to go until election day.

The Hill sums up the situation in the starkest of terms:

The sky is falling on House Republicans and there is no sign of it letting up.

The GOP loss in Mississippi’s special election Tuesday is the strongest sign yet that the Republican Party is in shambles. And while some Republicans see a light at the end of the tunnel, that light more likely represents the Democratic train that is primed to mow down more Republicans in November.

Get ready to rock this November.  Republicans can run, but they can’t hide.

Update: Blackburn has taken issue with the characterization of her remarks:

Blackburn referred to her former House colleague, but did not criticize him for a lack of effort. She was referring to a rift that emerged during the primary between rival regions in the district, a member present said.

I’d like you to imagine, for a moment, that you are the NRCC’s junior press secretary. You’ve just been tasked with the impossible: Spin tonight’s disastrous election loss in the deep red, R+10 first congressional district in Mississippi. Well, it would be impossible for normal people, but we’re talking about Republicans. No spin is too absurd! Anything will do! Those saps in the “emm-ess-emm” will dutifully transcribe whatever you write, anyhow. (Remember how they bought your line about how LA-06 was a bad portent for… Democrats? Delicious!) The key thing is, whatever explanation you decide on, it absolutely, positively, cannot be the fault of any Republican anywhere.

With that in mind, start writing!

UPDATE: The verdict is in: Tom Cole should have hired all the commenters on this thread! His staff has clearly forgotten how to write a Republican press release.