Tag: WY-AL

They’re dropping like flies, aren’t they?

Just after we learned that Republican Rep. Jim Saxton (R-NJ) will retire, we now learn from Roll Call that Barbara Cubin of Wyoming will retire at the end of her team.

The writing was on the wall here for quite some time.  Cubin’s disastrous victory against Democrat Gary Trauner in 2006 (she won by a mere 1000 votes and lost 25% of Republicans and a whopping 71% of independents to Trauner) sealed her fate, with the local and GOP aiming to knock her off in a primary.  A host of health issues in her family made the decision obvious.

Unlike Saxton’s retirement, which moves his seat into “Lean Dem” territory, Cubin’s retirement is a setback for Democrats, who were relying on the state’s deep dissatisfaction with Cubin’s performance to carry their nominee in the 12th-most Republican district in the country.  Still, Gary Trauner will perform strongly here for a Democrat, and there’s no telling how rancorous the GOP primary will be (and how ugly of a cretin that primary will produce).

How did you use your extra hour today?  I’m going to use mine right here by rounding up various House race flotsam and jetsam from the past several days.

• FL-10: Bring ’em to Justice?  At a recent Young Democrats breakfast in Florida, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz announced that State Senator Charlie Justice (D), the man whose name is most often mentioned as a potential opponent for crumb-bum Republican Rep. Bill Young, may have “big news” to announce soon. 

  When pressed for comment, Justice told the St. Petersburg Times that: “If [Young] retires, the seat hasn’t been open in 40 years, everyone should take a good look at it.  Am I looking at it? Absolutely.  Does that mean 100 percent that I’m going to run?  No, but it’s pretty darn close.”
  

  The Times keeps hearing rumors that Young will step down and that his wife will run in his place.  With a PVI of D+1, this would be one of the hottest takeover opportunities for Democrats next year.  I don’t have their sources, but by reading the tea leaves, I suspect that Young will have some “big news” of his own to share soon.
  

• AK-AL: Speaking of crumb-bums named Young, the Defenders of Wildlife are up on the airwaves in Alaska, hitting scandal-tainted Rep. Don Young (R) hard.  Let’s hope we can make a Pombo out of Young.

• NC-09: Remember Harry Taylor, the man who shocked a Republican-friendly audience when he told President Bush, face-to-face at a PR event, that “I would hope from time to time that you have the humility and the grace to be ashamed of yourself”?
  

  Well, he’s now running for Congress against Rep. Sue Myrick (R).  I welcome the courage that Taylor will bring to this R+12.2 district.

• IN-07: With Democratic Rep. Julia Carson’s health concerns continuing to affect her House attendance (she’s on medical leave until December 15), it looks like Republicans are trying to tap into their minimal bench in Indianapolis in order to pounce on the opportunity.  In the 11/5 issue of Indiana Daily Insight (subscription required), it is reported that freshman state Rep. Jon Elrod (R) is “seriously considering” a bid against her.  Blue Indiana has more on Elrod, and welcomes the opportunity that his open legislative seat could bring.  Could Elrod scare Carson into a retirement?  Without one, this heavily Democratic seat (with a PVI of D+8.7) won’t be safe.

• WY-AL: If Barbara Cubin is planning on running again, she’ll be facing a crowded primary.  Retired Naval officer Bill Winney, who mounted an underfunded long-shot primary challenge to Cubin in 2006 and walked away from it with 40% of the vote, is running again.  However, Winney wouldn’t be the only challenger on the ballot: Swede Nelson, a motivational speaker and teacher, is also running, and state Rep. Colin Simpson said earlier in the year that he planned on challenging Cubin for the nomination if she ran again. 

  If Cubin decides to run again, her only chance of survival is having the anti-incumbent vote split between several different options.  Her stock has sunk so low, that I would bet that she’d be in danger of losing a head-to-head match up against even an unknown like Winney.  Sadly for us, I strongly suspect that Cubin will hang up her spurs and broomstick.

UPDATE (David):

• MD-04: The netroots fundraiser for Donna Edwards has been a huge success so far. We’ve blasted past our intial goal of 4,000 total donors to Donna (we’re at 4,250, in fact). We’ve also raised around $75,000 so far. We’re hoping to hit an even $100,000, so if you can help make it happen, please do so.
• Illinois: The filing deadline in the Praire State is tomorrow, Nov. 5th. Illinois has the first Congressional primaries in the nation, on Feb. 5th, so it’s no surprise that their filing deadline is so soon. Diarist benawu informs us that IL Dems look to be fielding challengers in all districts except the 15th. We’ll know the final shape of our field tomorrow.

Is it retirement time for GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin?  In a lengthy article dealing with her personal troubles and recent tragedies (and they are significant), Cubin says that she’ll make a re-election decision and announcement very soon:

Cubin, who turns 61 in November, told the Associated Press recently that she plans to run for re-election. But on Thursday she said only that she will make a decision and announcement in the next few weeks.

“I just need to make the announcement at a time that is right,” she said. “Certainly whatever I decide to do there are people I need to notify first before it is in the media – staff, family, all those kind of things.”

I don’t know about you, but I can’t imagine Cubin deciding to give 2008 another go.  That’s going to be bad news for Democrat Gary Trauner, but I suppose you never know what kind of Bill Sali-esque goon might emerge from the bowels of the Wyoming Republican Party, leaving a ray of hope in one of the reddest states in the nation.