Tag: Kay Hagan

Elon University (9/15-16, residents):

Kay Hagan (D): 35

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 35

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Bev Perdue (D): 35

Pat McCrory (R): 37

(MoE: ±4.9%)

First off, this is a strange poll, from a pollster I’ve never heard of before: a poll of North Carolina residents, with no regard to voting likelihood or registration, with a 4.9% MoE, and, judging by the very low numbers, little interest in pushing leaners. (UPDATE: Nor does the poll even give the names of candidates, only asking whether respondents are voting Democratic or Republican in each race!)

On the other hand, the numbers seem quite consistent with what we’ve seen recently: a tied race in the Senate, and a governor’s race moving in the last month from a slight Dem lean to a slight GOP lean. McCain leads Obama 41-35, also plausible.

{Update: We’re up to $335!  You’ve responded amazingly.  Can we get to $500?  Just another $165.  We can do it!  If you can swing it, send Hagan $25 right now via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.}

{Originally posted at Senate Guru.}

You read that right.  The Senate Guru is going on strike for Kay Hagan!  Currently, on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page, Hagan is at $50 raised.  Well, the Guru will not write another post until Hagan has crossed the $300 mark.  That’s right!  The Guru is on strike until the community contributes another $250 to Hagan.

Contributions to Hagan will be money very well spent.  Hagan’s primary victory last Tuesday gave her a great deal of momentum; and, the most recent poll actually sees her in a statistical dead heat with (actually, with a one point lead over) the contemptible Elizabeth Dole.  Hagan is well-positioned to make the North Carolina Senate race a top tier battle.  But she needs our help with raising the resources necessary to cut through Dole’s spin.

We can help make this a top tier race.  I feel strongly enough about that that I’m willing to go on strike until we reach the $300 mark for her on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.  C’mon, whether it’s ten wonderful people giving $25 each or one generous soul chipping in $250, I want to see the Senate Guru community step up to help Hagan and put Dole on notice.

Wow.  From a Rasmussen Reports poll (5/8, 500 likely voters, 4/10 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 48 (39)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 47 (52)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

A very nice primary bump for Kay Hagan.  Looks like this race is shifting fast — and in the right direction.

(H/T: AndTun1)

SSP is moving NC-Sen from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican.” Several factors contribute to this change:

1) Democrat Kay Hagan (who convincingly won her primary earlier this week) has done a good job raking in cash so far, raising $1.5 million since she got into the race, including $900K in the first quarter. She had to spend a lot of her warchest in her race against Jim Neal, but it looks like her fundraising will continue to be strong.

2) Democratic turnout rocked the house on Tuesday. In the most directly comparable races, the parallel gubernatorial primaries, the number of votes cast on the Dem side was almost three-and-a-half times greater than in the GOP contest. Of course, Dem turnout was likely to be greater given the presidential battle atop the ticket, but new Democratic voter registrations are far outstripping Republican registrations. There has also been a huge flux of new independent registrations, and early voting patterns show that indies overwhelmingly prefer Team Blue.

3) The Obama factor: Barack Obama almost certainly makes this state far more competitive than Hillary Clinton would have. We’re not saying Obama’s going to win NC, but it will be in play. And while Obama’s nomination has been inevitable for months, his grudging coronation by the tradmed finally allows him to focus on the general election. This is good news in the Tarheel State.

4) Finally, Liddy Dole’s polling is less than stellar. A Rasmussen poll a month ago put the race at 52-39, while a more recent Research 2000/DailyKos poll showed a tight 48-41 margin. Now that Hagan is past the primary, much like Obama, she can turn her attention to her Republican opponent.

SSP’s complete Senate race ratings are available here.

As you might remember reading last week “on some political gossip Web site,” it was reported that State Senator Kay Hagan (D-Greensboro) was reconsidering a challenge to Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC). Today, Hagan announced she's officialy in the race and came out of the gate swinging:

“To make a difference in North Carolina, we need change in Washington,” Hagan said. “We need a Senator to make our voice heard. We need a Senator who will stand up, lead and make a difference. That's what I've done, and it's what I'm going to keep doing in Washington.”

“We need accountability to end the war in Iraq so we can re-invest those resources here at home. How can Washington reject health care for 123,000 North Carolina children, while continuing to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on this mismanaged war?” Hagan said. “Making those kinds of decisions is hard, but I know it can be done – because those are the kinds of fights I've led in the State Senate.”

Hagan joins businessman Jim Neal in the Democratic primary.

Two well-placed sources, independent of each other, have contacted the Swing State Project to let us know that NC State Senator Kay Hagan (D-Greensboro) has reconsidered her earlier decision and will challenge Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

Blue NC had picked up earlier rumors that Hagan might be back in from a local Democratic strategist:

Even before Jim Neal outed himself, Kay Hagan was looking at getting back in the U.S. Senate race. Now she’s getting more encouragement – from home and from Washington. Hagan, a state senator from Greensboro, had looked at running earlier. She pulled back because Senator Charles Schumer from New York, who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, was intent on recruiting Grier Martin. Martin eventually opted out.

Now Hagan is reconsidering. She’s being wooed by North Carolina Democrats – and by Schumer. The garrulous New Yorker’s first task was to eat crow with Hagan. 

Public Policy Polling recently pegged Dole's approval at 44% with 41% disapproval. If our sources are correct, these numbers certainly suggest Hagan would have something to work with.