CA-42: Gary Miller Caught Red Handed

Hey, remember the House Republicans?  I know, it’s easy to forget a group that’s become such a spent, marginalized force in Washington, DC.  The DCCC, however, reminds us today that corruption still lingers in their ranks:

As you may know, the FBI is investigating Gary Miller for deferring tax payments on profits he made from selling his land to the City of Monrovia.  Miller claims the city forced him to sell the land under eminent domain.  Under California law, you can defer tax payments if the city forces you to sell the land.  However, we have obtained video of a City of Monrovia council meeting where Miller repeatedly begs the city to buy his land:

Miller’s district is seriously rough territory for Democrats–at R+10.2, it’s the sixth-most Republican district in California.  California Democrats hold no comparable seat in the state–the most Republican-leaning seat in their possession is Jerry McNerney’s CA-11 (R+3).  But, reminding voters that Republicans still have to clean up their side of the aisle makes going after Miller worth it alone.

AL-Sen: Introducing Ron Sparks

Alabama’s junior Senator, Republican Jeff Sessions, hasn’t made the usual shortlists of targeted Republican incumbents in most of the preliminary “battle plans” for the Senate Democrats’ 2008 campaign strategy for obvious reasons: with rare exceptions, Democrats have fared pretty poorly in Southern Senate elections, and even worse in the Deep South.  But mounting serious challenges to Senators like Sessions can pay off with dividends elsewhere, even if such campaigns don’t score explicit victories.  Lighting brushfires behind supposedly Republican lines has the potential to stretch NRSC and RNC resources to the breaking point, all in a critical Presidential election year.  And, of course: you can’t ever expect to win if you don’t even show up.

Let’s start with Jeff Sessions of Alabama.  Sessions, as you may recall, is an extremely conservative Senator whose career highlights include being a staunch advocate for the partial privatization of social security as well as attempting to exploit the deaths of Katrina victims in order to build support for his pet cause, repealing the Estate Tax. 

So where do we go from here?  Is there an Alabama Democrat credible enough to mount a respectable challenge to Sessions–a challenge that’s strong enough to turn some heads on the national scene, and maybe, just maybe has an outside shot of delivering a deep South victory for the Democratic Party?  Meet the man who could make it happen: Ron Sparks.

Ron Sparks has been Alabama’s Agriculture and Industry Commissioner since he was elected in 2002 over his Republican opponent by a 51-46 margin.  In 2006, he was one of Alabama’s top vote getters, enjoying a 59-41 victory while winning 62 of the state’s 67 counties.  During his first term in office, he secured new trade markets for the state in Cuba, improved Alabama’s school lunch system from a grade of F to a B-plus (you can see Sparks’ video message on YouTube), moved to protect Alabama’s water resources, and generally served as a hard-nosed consumer safety advocate.  His successful tenure allowed him to build a broad coalition of support, from the Alabama Education Association, to the conservative Alabama Farmers Federation (which endorses very few Democrats), to the AFL-CIO and the Business Council of Alabama.  And he was able to build this coaltion all while being a fiery, populist Democrat.

Sparks is generally regarded as one of the Alabama Democratic Party’s strongest stump speakers.  Sparks is an authentic son of Alabama, and you can see it in his upbringing: he didn’t just come from a family of mill workers, he was one himself, working alongside his grandmother in the local sock mills while in high school.  During a stump speech, he easily weaves in themes of progressive populism that strike the right chords with Alabama’s grassroots, reminding them why their daddies and granddaddies were Democrats–and why, even though the state hasn’t voted for a Democratic Presidential nominee since 1976, Democrats have a three-point edge in partisan identification according to the latest Gallup polling.

Just to give you a taste, here’s Sparks on issues of economic justice during the fall of 2006:

“I don’t know about you, but I’m getting tired of the $3 a gallon gasoline. I’m tired of seeing Exxon-Mobile bringing out these $10 billion profits. I’ll tell you something: There’s something wrong when you pay an executive, a CEO of a large company, $28,000 an hour,” Sparks said to applause. “We haven’t increased minimum wage in this country since 1997. We had a minimum wage in Washington, and they tied the estate tax to it.”

He said the estate tax would give Vice President Dick Cheney a $61 million break and President Bush a $6.2 million break. Meanwhile, 7.3 million people work for minimum wage and 8.2 million work for a dollar over minimum wage, he said.

“It’s not about the working people when you tie those two types of legislation together,” Sparks said.

[…]

“Pour it on, brother,” someone shouted, starting applause.

“The cost of living has increased 8.1 percent,” Sparks said, adding that Americans are not saving anymore and that people are only saving at a pace that is the slowest since the Great Depression. 

“The rich have gotten richer and the poor have gotten poorer,” Sparks said.

[…]

The nation is No. 1 among developed nations in poverty – and in billionaires, he said. Sparks said 37 million Americans live in poverty and 25 million go through food banks every day.

“That’s wrong,” he said, saying Democrats have to get that message out and what they stand for.

On treating America’s veterans with respect:

“Things are not getting better in this country. You know, we’ve got a president who marched us off to war with no plan. I’m a veteran. I served this country. But there is something wrong when you carry your soldiers into battle and won’t give them the tools to fight with,” he said to applause.

“Don’t send these young men and women across the water to fight for our freedom in this country when you won’t give them a gun to fight with and you won’t give them a bullet-proof vest.

“Then when they come home, you don’t want to give them what they deserve. That’s wrong, ladies and gentlemen,” Sparks said, starting more applause.

And on dealing with the dreaded “L-word”:

“Sometimes people say, `Commissioner, why do you get so emotional?’ Because I’m sick and tired of people taking a simple word and spinning it and making us look like we’re bad. Let me tell you something: I’m not ashamed of people saying, `Commissioner, you’re a liberal,'” Sparks said, creating more applause.

He said he was taught by his grandmother that when people were less fortunate, you should help them and that everyone deserves the same education and healthcare.

“If that’s a liberal, then I’m a liberal. They need to quit spinning it, folks, and we need to step up to the battle,” Sparks said to more applause.



Like what you hear?  So do I.  And so does General Wesley Clark, who has become close friends with Sparks over the past several years–so much so that Clark agreed to preside over Spark’s swearing-in ceremony earlier this year.  His comment at the time:

“Ron Sparks is the epitome of a true public servant,” said General Clark.  “In the four years he’s been in office, Ron has transformed the Department of Agriculture and Industries into a cutting edge, consumer oriented agency.  He’s a real innovator and I am proud to be a part of this ceremony for such a forward thinking leader and dedicated servant of the people of Alabama.”



Sparks’ name has popped up in the past few months as a potential opponent to Sessions, but my sources at the Alabama Democratic Party tell me that such a run is looking more and more possible.  While Sparks would love to be Governor of Alabama some day, Folsom is the favorite for the Democratic nomination in 2010 and Sparks would never want to challenge his friend and colleague in a primary.  Since Sparks is term-limited as Agriculture & Industry Commissioner, his other option would be to run for the Lt. Governor’s office and wait out a hypothetical Folsom administration.  Since the position is largely ceremonial in Alabama, such a course might be unappealing to a man of action like Sparks.  Another possibility would be to keep his powder dry on the national scene next year and run for Richard Shelby’s Senate seat in the event of a retirement in 2010, but he could face stiff opposition from Artur Davis in the primary and possibly Gov. Bob Riley in the general.  Insiders have been persuading Sparks that a run in 2008 would be a good move, and I’m inclined to agree.  For one thing, even if Sparks loses, a valiant effort would raise his profile and could earn him the right to a clear path to the Democratic nomination should Shelby retire in 2010.

While it would be one hell of an uphill battle, Ron Sparks is just the kind of guy we need to put Republican defenses to the test in even the reddest of the red states next year.  And Sessions is hardly an institution in Alabama: his 52-35 approval rating is solid on the surface, but it’s still nothing remarkable–especially when you consider that he scores a 46% approval rating from African-Americans, and it is virtually guaranteed that Sessions will score far less than 46% of the black vote in November 2008.  While national Democrats have not had much success in Alabama, Sparks’ brand of economic populism and down-home authenticity could potentially deliver a rare spectacle: a competitive Deep South Senate race where the Republicans are forced to play defense.  If you happen to agree, please consider name-dropping Sparks on the new Senate recruitment form on the DSCC’s web site.

Race Tracker: AL-Sen

TN-Sen: March Update on the Potential 2008 Candidates

by sidof79

After brief talk of his retirement after his current term expires, Lamar Alexander appears to be posed to defend his seat in 2008.  He was a surprisingly vocal opponent of The Surge, and yet still voted with the GOP when the time came.  He has hired Tom Ingram as his chief of staff, the same Tom Ingram who helped get Fred Thompson, Bob Corker, and Lamar himself get elected to the Senate (if you still think “flannel shirt” when you hear “Lamar Alexander,” that was Ingram’s idea).  Curiously, though, he has raised very little money at this point.  With all the talk about being a moderate, calling for bi-partisanship in the Senate, he remains a Bush rubberstamper (anti-gay marriage, pro-gun, pro-Bush tax cuts, pro-capital punishment, pro-life, anti-marijuana legalization, pro-social security privatization, pro-missile defense) and party loyalist.  So he needs to go.  Maybe they’ll talk him into another presidential run.  They’re asking pretty much everybody nowadays.  Here’s a look at his possible Democratic replacements.

http://bluesunbelt.c…

NM-Sen: Domenici’s Sky-High Approvals Fall Back to Earth

During the nearly two years that SurveyUSA has tracked Senatorial approval ratings, Republican Sen. Pete Domenici of New Mexico has never seen approval ratings below 60%.  Well Pete, that era is now over:

Granted, a 57/35 approve/disapprove rating is by no means catastrophic, but as the U.S. Attorney scandal continues to bubble, I wouldn’t expect to see his numbers improve any time soon, either.  And if an ethics complaint against Pajama Pete manages to materialize in the Senate over his role in the David Iglesias scandal, expect to see even further damage to his “Saintly” image in the state.

(Hat-tip to New Mexico FBIHOP for the scoop.)

Race Tracker: NM-Sen

House Republicans Playing With Fire on Iraq

The House of Representatives passed an emergency supplemental war spending bill today by a 218 to 212 margin. The bill includes a firm deadline–August 31, 2008–for American troops to disengage and leave Iraq. Only two Republicans–Reps. Walter Jones of North Carolina and Wayne Gilchrist of Maryland–voted to hold the Bush Administration accountable and move to end the war in Iraq. The rest? Loyal as ever to the President. It seems that the vast majority of the Republican caucus has yet to learn the hard lessons of the 2006 elections. Must we teach them a second time?

Here is a list of the 62 Republicans occupying marginal districts (those with a PVI of R+5.0 or weaker) who voted against the bill in a show of solidarity with President Bush today.



























































































































































































































































































































































































State CD Incumbent PVI
DE AL Castle D+6.5
CT 4 Shays D+5.4
NJ 2 Lobiondo D+4.0
IL 10 Kirk D+3.6
NY 25 Walsh D+3.4
NJ 3 Saxton D+3.3
NM 1 Wilson D+2.4
WA 8 Reichert D+2.3
PA 6 Gerlach D+2.2
NY 3 King D+2.1
PA 15 Dent D+1.6
FL 10 Young D+1.1
NV 3 Porter D+1.0
NY 13 Fossella D+0.8
IA 4 Latham D+0.4
MI 9 Knollenberg R+0.1
NY 23 McHugh R+0.2
MN 3 Ramstad R+0.5
OH 1 Chabot R+0.5
VA 11 Davis, Tom R+0.6
NJ 7 Ferguson R+0.6
OH 12 Tiberi R+0.7
NJ 4 Smith R+0.9
IL 11 Weller R+1.1
OH 15 Pryce R+1.1
MI 11 McCotter R+1.2
PA 3 English R+1.6
MI 8 Rogers R+1.9
AZ 1 Renzi R+2.2
WI 1 Ryan R+2.2
PA 18 Murphy R+2.2
OH 14 LaTourette R+2.2
MI 6 Upton R+2.3
MI 7 Walberg R+2.5
MN 2 Kline R+2.7
OH 3 Turner R+2.9
IL 6 Roskam R+2.9
FL 8 Keller R+3.0
NC 8 Hayes R+3.0
FL 24 Feeney R+3.1
CA 45 Bono R+3.2
NY 26 Reynolds R+3.5
OH 16 Regula R+3.6
MI 4 Camp R+4.0
CA 26 Dreier R+4.1
FL 13 Buchanan R+4.1
FL 7 Mica R+4.1
FL 15 Weldon R+4.1
FL 9 Bilirakis R+4.3
AL 3 Rogers R+4.3
FL 18 Ros-Lehtinen R+4.3
NJ 5 Garrett R+4.4
MI 10 Miller R+4.4
FL 25 Diaz-Balart, M. R+4.4
IL 16 Manzullo R+4.5
CA 50 Bilbray R+4.6
IL 13 Biggert R+4.7
CA 24 Gallegly R+4.8
IL 14 Hastert R+4.8
MO 6 Graves R+4.8
VA 4 Forbes R+4.9
WV 2 Capito R+5.0

MT-AL: Who Will Challenge Rehberg in 2008?

Matt Singer over at Left in the West has a good summary of the latest Montana-At-Large House race rumors:

So what’s going on with the Congressional race here in Montana? Recently, I’ve been hearing three names over and over again:

  • Bill Kennedy — Bill is the lone Democratic County Commission in Yellowstone County. I’m hearing that he’s definitely throwing his hat into this ring, but there’s been no announcement, so take it with the same grain of salt that you take anything in the political rumor mill. That said, Bill brings some strengths to this race. He represents a swing county that is Dennis Rehberg’s base. He lost the race for Secretary of State in 2004, but I hear he appreciates the reasons for that defeat and has vowed to not repeat the mistakes. If there are “factions” in the Democratic Party, Bill and I are from different ones. I worked for and supported Jon Ellingson for S.O.S. in 2004. Bill was John Morrison’s primary treasurer in 2006, while I supported Jon Tester. All that said, Bill has always struck me as a genuinely nice guy and good human being. With the right kind of campaign, he could be a formidable opponent to a huckster like Rehberg.
  • Jim Foley — A former top aide to both Pat Williams and Max Baucus, Jim Foley has flirted with running for office for years. A recent Roll Call article said rumors were spreading that he was eyeing a race for Congress. Both the DCCC, which works on recruiting for these campaigns, and Jim himself refused to comment. That said, the story wouldn’t have mentioned him if someone hadn’t placed it and it wouldn’t have been placed for no reason. He’s probably feeling out the waters. His strength? A huge percentage of members of Congress are former staff people who understand the grueling work it takes to get there. His weakness? He’s been based for years in Missoula, so he’ll have to deal with the (often exaggerated) implications of being tied to the progressive hotbed of Montana, but he’ll do it with few of the benefits. Jim himself is not beloved by the Missoula ‘roots. Final Note: I don’t have this on any authority, so don’t quote me, but I’d guess Jim Foley would not jump into this race until after Rehberg explicitly says he’s running for re-election. Jim knows the tougher race Rehberg expects, the more likely he is to jump into the Senate race. Jim is loyal and he wouldn’t look to set up a tougher race for his former boss. Again, this is just my gut, so take it with a half a grain of salt.
  • Dennis McDonald — The current chair of the Democratic Party in Montana, Dennis may find his background as a rancher and relative political outsider comes in more useful as a candidate than as a behind-the-scenes manager. Dennis is a founder of R-CALF, has deep connections across rural Montana, and could undermine part of Dennis’s base. He’d continue the successful formula that has worked for Montana Democrats — run a rancher or farmer who is good on gun issues and can be forceful on trade, keep the base unified, and win. What’s his biggest weakness? He’s never been a candidate, much less a statewide one in a high-profile race. And he doesn’t receive the natural political benefit of that, since as chair of a political party, he’s relatively easy to paint as a typical insider.

Here’s my dream scenario: an aggressive, credible Montana Democrat tosses his hat in the ring, giving Republican Denny Rehberg an extra incentive to vacate his House seat and take on Democratic Senator Max Baucus that same year.  Baucus beats back Rehberg, like he did in 1996, and Democrats have a serious shot to reclaim the House seat that Democrat Pat Williams held until 1996.  Two stones to kill one bird–that sort of thing.

Of course: A) this is extremely wishful thinking, and B) I’m sure that neither Max Baucus nor the DSCC would look upon such a strategy with good humor.  Baucus has what it takes to beat Rehberg, but I’m sure he’d prefer to take on someone a bit lower down the totem pole.

Race Tracker: MT-AL | MT-Sen

CO-Sen: Scott McInnis Officially Pulls the Plug on Senate Bid

From the Rocky Mountain News:

Former Congressman Scott McInnis announced today that he will take a pass on the 2008 U.S. Senate race, clearing the way for what could be a wide-open contest for the Republican nomination.

McInnis, who was widely regarded as a front-runner for the GOP nomination, said he will remain involved in politics, but that the contest was not right for his family.

[…]

With the contest still more than a year away, Rep. Mark Udall, D-Eldorado Springs, is positioning himself to run on the Democratic side. McInnis’ decision is sure to fuel speculation among Republicans about who might run. Several names have surfaced, including former Rep. Bob Schaffer, retired Air Force Gen. Bentley Rayburn, Attorney General John Suthers.

While this isn’t quite the same bombshell as yesterday’s news from Louisiana was, it is still a game-changing event in Colorado.  McInnis, who had nearly $1 million sitting in his dormant House campaign account, was expected to be no slouch in his bid against Udall for Colorado’s open Senate seat.  The Republican field, at this point, is whittled down to two names: AG John Suthers and former Rep. Bob Schaffer, a very right-wing figure who lost a bitterly disputed primary battle with beer baron Pete Coors by a 39-61 margin.  Suthers is an NRSC favorite while Schaffer is a warm friend of Colorado GOP chair Dick Wadhams (yes, of George Allen ’06 fame).  As the Guru notes, the Colorado Republican grassroots seem less than impressed with Suthers.  I smell a food fight coming on!

The Colorado GOP will be running uphill from now until November 2008.

Race Tracker: CO-Sen

OH-02: Does Jean Schmidt Have a Political Deathwish?

Whether it’s advocating for the importation of nuclear waste into her congressional district (which inspired one of my all-time favorite editorial cartoons), sending out infantile, racist campaign mailers, or embarrassing herself on the floor of the House of Representatives, you’ve got to wonder if Jean Schmidt was born with some of the worst instincts in American politics today, or if she’s simply trying to test the upper limits of endurance that her ruby red district (R+13) is capable of handling.

Add disregard for America’s veterans to the list:

Schmidt, a Clermont County Republican, decided to take “several hours” to travel to the hospital in Washington, D.C., to see the situation “first hand.”

Her conclusion?

“I found the situation at Walter Reed to be overblown by both politicians and the media.”

Unbelievable.

(Hat-tip to TPM.)

Race Tracker: OH-02

Concern Trolls at the National Journal

A lot of ink has been spilled in the past couple of days over this YouTube clip, which mashes up Apple’s 1984 Superbowl commercial with the image and voice of Hillary Clinton presiding over a numbed Orwellian dystopia.  But whatever–you’ve all seen it at least once by now, so I don’t need to describe it any further.  Let me share with you some commentary, though, from the National Journal’s Blogometer that really dogs my cats:

We don’t know whether the creative license taken by the creator of the “Hillary 1984” infringes on any of Apple’s intellectual property rights claims (some bloggers did not even know of the original ad), but there’s no doubt the official Obama logo on the hammer lady’s shirt infringes on Barack Obama’s copyright and trademark properties. Trademark in particular would be a strong claim since many viewing the ad could conclude the logo signals Obama’s endorsement of the message. YouTube policy on intel. property rights enables Obama to flag the video, and given the clear violation involved, YouTube would have to remove the video if Obama protested.

Currently the Obama campaign refuses to discuss the spot, only saying: “There is a lot of energy for Sen. Obama on the Web, in communities all over the country … and frankly, that energy will manifest itself in a lot of ways.” But what if those manifestations come on Swift Boat-style anonymous ads? Shouldn’t a candidate, especially one campaigning on ending ‘negativity‘ in politics, move to silence such ads when they can? We certainly Hope Obama isn’t playing a cynical game of allowing other to attack for him while he stresses how positive and uplifting politics should be.

For the record, I like the National Journal’s Hotline, and by and large I have a great deal of respect for the work they do.  Heck, back in the good old days when Hotline-on-Call actually bothered to write about House, Senate, and Gubernatorial races, I would link to them regularly on this blog.  Conn Carroll, the author of this particular piece and the editor of the Blogometer, is by and large a sharp guy who has a decent grasp on the dynamics of online activism.  But this note of “concern” misses the mark in so many laughable ways.

Carroll makes an attempt to equate this viral YouTube clip with the nasty “negative” politics that Obama has condemned in the past, and therefore he argues that Obama has only one choice: that he must to pull the plug on this wildly popular video by filing a legal complaint.  Carroll and others like him should get a grip.  For one thing, this is hardly the “Swift Boat-style” ad that Carroll implies it is.  Anonymous, sure, but this ad does not in any way possess the vile character defamation of a Swift Boat attack, nor the kind of crass “negativity” that Carroll puzzlingly attributes it with.  What’s so offensive about this ad to Carroll?  If anything, it complements Obama’s narrative about unlikely actors bucking the grain to achieve impossible results.  Heck, it’s pretty easy to view this ad and see it as “positive and uplifting”, depending on your perspective.  I’m not sure what Carroll’s “concern” is trying to accomplish here.  If this is an attempt to A) preemptively disarm Obama, and/or B) de-energize his netroots base, then it’s an extremely weak one.

CT-04: Richter Out, Himes In

From Maura at My Left Nutmeg:

A few weeks after having dinner with local party chairs and less than a week after former Rangers goalie Mike Richter was introduced to the Democratic Congressional caucus in DC, Richter has made calls to key players in the the district today to say he has decided not to challenge Shays next year.

I’m disappointed that things didn’t pan out for Richter, but since he didn’t have ties to the district, I think it would have been hard to beat the carpetbagger rap. I’d like to see him return to an area where he has real roots, work the scene for a few years, and then run. I think he would make a huge splash.

But as for CT-04, Maura tells us about the great candidate we’ve got who actually is running:

Jim Himes has done an impressive job of beginning to lay the cornerstones of  his campaign against Shays.  In the past two weeks, Himes has published great op-ed pieces against Shays in the  Greenwich Citizen and two days ago in the The Advocate (Stamford and Norwalk) and Greenwich Time.

More biographical details in Maura’s post, plus some info on how Himes is already kickin’ the tires and lightin’ some fires. With Chris Shays running up a serious borrowed-time debt, I think this race could shape up to be the marquee challenge in the Northeast this cycle.

Race Tracker: CT-04