MN-Sen: Gap Closes Again in New Strib Poll

Star Tribune (9/10-12, likely voters, 5/12-15 in parens):

Al Franken (DFL): 37 (44)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 41 (51)

Dean Barkley (I): 13 (-)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

With Barkley in the mix, Coleman’s lead has shrunk to four points from seven in May. Some more numbers: Coleman’s job approval is pretty poor, clocking in at 42% (down from 45% in May). Still, Franken’s personal unfavorables continue to be higher than his favorability rating among voters. One piece of good news for Franken is that, by a 62-25 margin, voters consider Coleman as someone who “follows President Bush’s lead” as opposed to being an independent thinker. That association will be driven hard and heavy from now until November.

The results are fairly close to a recent SUSA poll released on Saturday that showed Coleman leading by 41-40, with Barkley picking up 14%. It seems that Barkley is hoping that Franken and Coleman will nuke each other to death in the air wars, allowing him to get to 35 or 36% based on a strong debate performance. Can’t say that I think such a scenario is likely, although his impact on this race will not be negligible.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

MN-Sen: Franken Closes the Gap in New SUSA Poll

SurveyUSA (9/10-11, likely voters, 8/13-14 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 40 (39)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 41 (46)

Dean Barkley (I): 14 (-)

Undecided: 5 (5)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

SurveyUSA has generally given more favorable margins for Coleman than Rasmussen (the only two outfits that regularly release polls of this contest), in part perhaps based on a sample of younger voters who are more pro-GOP than you might expect. So while it might be tempting to say that Franken is performing well in the face of a funky cross-sample, I’d prefer to wait for SUSA to release the poll’s crosstabs to pick this one apart. UPDATE: Crosstabs are available here. Look like SUSA finally solved the young voter problem — in this poll, Franken leads 48-33 among 18-34 year-olds.

Note: In the August poll, Dean Barkley’s name wasn’t explicitly mentioned, but “Other” gobbled up 11% of the vote.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by a 49-47 in the poll, the same margin that SUSA showed here in August.

(Via MN Publius)

9/9 Primary Results Round-up

A quick round-up of last night’s congressional and gubernatorial primaries:

  • DE-Gov (D): State Treasurer Jack Markell edged Lt. Gov. John Carney by 1,700 votes for the Democratic nomination to succeed retiring Gov. Ruth Ann Minner. Markell will face Republican Bill Lee in November.
  • DE-AL (D): Children’s rights activist Karen Hartley-Nagle beat Mike Miller by a 55-34 margin for the right to take on GOP Rep. Mike Castle in November. Kossack Jerry “Possum” Northington gobbled up 10% of the vote.
  • MN-Sen (D): Al Franken jogged past attorney Priscilla Lord Faris by a 65-30 margin for the Dem nomination against Norm Coleman.
  • MN-01 (R): Physician Brian Davis schooled state Sen. Dick Day by 67-33 for the right to challenge Democratic Rep. Tim Walz. I guess it just wasn’t a Dick Day Afternoon.
  • NH-01 (R): Former Rep. Jeb Bradley squeaked by former state Health Commissioner John Stephen by a 51-47 margin for the GOP nod against frosh Dem Rep. Carol Shea Porter.
  • NH-02 (R): Radio personality Jennifer Horn beat state Sen. Bob Clegg by a 40-34 margin for the dubious prize of a GOP nomination in this D+2.7 district. Horn faces steep odds against Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes in November.
  • NY-10 (D): Crusty Democratic Rep. Ed Towns held back a primary challenge from former reality TV star Kevin Powell, winning with a comfortable 67-33 spread.
  • NY-13 (D & R): NYC Councilman Mike McMahon easily dispatched ’06 candidate Steve Harrison by a 75-25 margin for the Dem nod for this open seat. In what has been the most pathetic offering of candidates by the Staten Island GOP in decades, unpopular ex-Assemblyman Robert Straniere bounced unpopular physician Jamhsad Wyne by 59-41.
  • NY-21 (D): Ex-Assemblyman Paul Tonko nabbed the Dem nod to replace retiring Rep. Mike McNulty in this D+8.7 district by 39-30 over former Hillary Clinton aide Tracey Brooks.
  • NY-26 (D): I believe this is called a “murder-suicide”. Iraq Vet Jon Powers and perennial candidate (and billionaire nativist industrialist) Jack Davis were trounced by unheralded environmental attorney Alice Kryzan, who won the Dem nod for this open seat with 42% of the vote to Powers’ 36% and Davis’ 23%. Kryzan will go up against businessman Chris Lee, who is partially self-funding his campaign, in November.

NY, MN Primary Results Thread

Polls have now closed in New York and Minnesota. Lots of sideshows here, but NY-26 is by far the biggest marquee race of the night.

RESULTS: NY (AP) | MN-01 (AP) | MN-Sen (AP)

11:38PM: The AP has called it for Brian Davis in MN-01. Al Franken’s at 66%-30%, which doesn’t strike me as so hot.

10:53PM: It’s now official — Alice Kryzan is the Dem nominee in NY-26. She leads by 1200 votes with 4% outstanding.

10:42PM: Amusing tidbit of the day: The loser of the Dem primary in NY-13, Steven Harrison, claimed more votes than the winner of the GOP primary, Robert “Weiner King of Manhattan” Straniere, by 3,805 to 3,591 with 98% reporting.

10:36PM: Checking in on Minnesota, Franken leads by 68%-28% over Priscilla Lord Faris with 40% reporting. In MN-01, Brian Davis leads Dick Day by 68%-32% with 38% of precincts reporting. I guess it wasn’t a Dick Day afternoon.

10:22PM: 91% in, and Kryzan leads by 1300 votes. I think we can stick a fork in this one. With Powers still on the ballot as the Working Families Party candidate, I think we can strike this district off the map of Democratic pick-up opportunities.

10:10PM: 85% in, and Kryzan still leads by 995 votes. Tonko with a big 42%-29% lead over Brooks in NY-21.

10:04PM: 41%-36% now, but the gap is now 1000 votes for Kryzan, with 82% reporting.

10:00PM: Powers just closed the gap a bit, but Kryzan still leads by 42%-36% (900 votes) with 69% reporting.

9:57PM: In NY-21, Paul Tonko has huge lead over Tracey Brooks with 11% reporting: 59%-19% (1200 votes).

9:44PM: 41% reporting now, and Kryzan is building her lead: 45%-32%-23% (a 1300 vote margin over Powers). On the one hand, it’s lovely to see Davis in third so far, but Kryzan is not exactly an A-game general election candidate.

9:39PM: 25% in now for NY-26, and Kryzan still leads: 43%-33%-24% (Powers-Davis). Could Powers and Davis have bludgeoned each other to death, allowing Kryzan to slip up the middle? Over in NY-10, Towns is back up with a 20% lead with 22% reporting.

9:33PM: Over in NY-26, Kryzan has an early lead with 22% reporting: 43% Kryzan, 33% Powers, 24% Davis.

9:29PM ET: With 9% reporting in NY-13, McMahon and Straniere have comfortable early leads. Over in NY-10, with 3% in, Kevin Powell leads Edolphus Towns by 10% (43 votes).

DE, MN, NH, NY Primary Predictions Thread

There are a whole lot of primaries that will be decided tonight. Most of them are sideshows, but a few of them are real races. Here’s everything of remote interest:

  • DE-Gov (D): Jack Markell vs. John Carney
  • DE-AL (D): Moose vs. Squirrel Jerry “Possum” Northington vs. Karen Hartley-Nagle and Mike Miller
  • MN-Sen (D): Al Franken vs. Priscilla Lord Faris
  • MN-01 (R): Dick Day vs. Brian Davis
  • NH-01 (R): Jeb Bradley vs. John Stephen
  • NH-02 (R): Jennifer Horn vs. Bob Clegg and various losers
  • NY-10 (D): Ed Towns vs. Kevin Powell
  • NY-13 (D & R): Mike McMahon vs. Stephen Harrison; Jamshad Wyne vs. Robert “Weiner King of Manhattan” Straniere
  • NY-21 (D): Paul Tonko vs. Tracey Brooks vs. Phil Steck vs. Darius Shahinfar
  • NY-26 (D): Crazy Jack Davis vs. Alice Kryzan vs. John Powers

Got any predictions?

MN-Sen, NH-Sen: DSCC On the Air

The DSCC is up with their first ads of the general election cycle (to the best of my knowledge) in Minnesota and New Hampshire.

The MN-Sen ad, “Running Man”:

And the NH-Sen ad, “Choice”:

The Minnesota piece, which mimics the style of a TV spot for an upcoming film, is pretty cleverly-made. The first of many more to come, I’m sure.

The NRSC also has their own ad up in New Hampshire. You can view it here.

September Election Preview: Races Worth Watching

The light at the end of the tunnel is upon us: the last batch of primaries occurs during the first few weeks of September. While there’s only one last good shot at bouncing an incumbent (LA-02), there is still a wide variety of tasty races in this smorgasbord.

September 2

AZ-01: As Rick Renzi looks forward to his golden years in prison retirement, there are battles on each side of the aisle to replace him. On the Democratic side, the frontrunner is former state representative Ann Kirkpatrick. There haven’t been any polls, but Kirkpatrick has thoroughly dominated the fundraising chase. Two of her opponents can’t be ruled out, though, especially given their connections to the Native American community (Natives make up nearly one-quarter of this district which encompasses much of rural Arizona, by far the most of any congressional district): environmental attorney Howard Shanker, who has often represented the tribes in court, and former TV reporter Mary Kim Titla, who as an Apache would be the first-ever Native American woman in Congress.

On the Republican side, ultra-conservative mining industry lobbyist Sydney Hay somehow got stuck carrying the party’s flag after more prominent (and electable) recruits demurred. Hay’s fundraising has been sub-par, giving attorney/ex-State Dept. official Sandra Livingstone an opening to surprise her. The odds still favor Hay… which may favor the Dems this November, given Hay’s unlikeability, the narrow lean of the R+2 district, and the stench left behind by Renzi.

AZ-05: Freshman Democratic Rep. Harry Mitchell might have been endangered in this suburban R+4 district in a less Dem-friendly year, having drawn a slew of credible challengers in the Republican primary. Former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert seems to have the best shot, based on fundraising and having the largest constitutency. However, ex-city councilor Susan Bitter Smith, ex-state senator Laura Knaperek, ex-state representative Mark Anderson, and lobbyist Jim Ogsbury are all in this thing, and without a runoff, one of the lesser candidates could easily sneak by, if they have a more cohesive bloc.

September 6 (?)

LA-02: Here’s the big opportunity for Democrats to clean house, by ridding themselves of their most corrupt member, Bill Jefferson. In a purely one-on-one race, Jefferson might be facing some long odds (although maybe not, given Louisiana residents’ tendency to be a little more forgiving of their pols’ indiscretions than in most places). Unfortunately, Jefferson faces an extremely crowded field, with the anti-Jefferson vote split among six other candidates (some of whom might actually be pro-Jefferson Trojan horses?): state representative Cedric Richmond, Jefferson Parish councilor Byron Lee, New Orleans city councilor James Carter, former New Orleans city councilor Troy Carter, Ray Nagin aide Kenya Smith, and former TV anchor Helena Moreno. Jefferson also has the edge in very cold, very hard cash on hand, although his pre-primary numbers showed slackening fundraising.

The good news is, what with a corrupt incumbent and a raft of challengers, this is almost certainly going to a runoff (which will be held October 4). I have absolutely no idea who will be opposing Jefferson in the runoff… and remember that the runoff didn’t work so well in 2006, when then-state representative Karen Carter Peterson lost to Jefferson despite the corruption allegations having surfaced (prior to his indictment, however). The runoff is the de facto general in this D+28 district.

LA-04: There’s a three-way fight among the top-tier Republicans in this battle to replace the retiring GOP Rep. Jim McCrery in this Shreveport-based R+7 district. The fundraising advantage seems to go to former Bossier Chamber of Commerce president Jeff Thompson and to self-funding trucking company executive Chris Gorman. However, several internal polls give a sizable edge to physician John Fleming.

The good news (for us) is that each of these guys is a relative unknown, and going up in November against Paul Carmouche, who has been the district attorney in Caddo Parish (home of Shreveport) for literally decades, and who faces only token primary opposition. With the likelihood of none of the three GOPers hitting 50%, and the nastiness getting dragged out for another month till a runoff, Carmouche looks to be in the catbird’s seat.

September 9

DE-Gov: The main event in Delaware is the Democratic primary in the governor’s race, between Lt. Gov. John Carney and Treasurer Jack Markell. (Either one is expected to coast in November, against retired judge Bill Lee.) Both seem like solid Dems; Carney is more associated with labor and party insiders, and Markell is considered more of a ‘fresh’ face, despite an endorsement from the DLC last year. This becomes more interesting when considering that the winner may be the one who appoints Joe Biden’s successor (although that could also be Ruth Ann Minner’s last act), and the gubernatorial loser may be the one who gets to be the next senator.

DE-AL: On paper, this should be a competitive race; at D+6, it’s the most Democratic-leaning district still occupied by a Republican (Mike Castle). Barring something weird happening, though, Castle will continue to occupy this seat for at least the next two years. This is worth mentioning mostly because this primary gets a lot of netroots focus; veterinarian and Kossack Jerry Northington is running, as well as ’06 independent candidate Karen Hartley-Nagle and accountant Mike Miller.

MN-Sen: Al Franken pretty much locked this nomination down long ago at the DFL convention, which is ordinarily the end game in Minnesota. However, attorney Priscilla Lord Faris is hanging around the margins, raising arguments about Franken’s electibility and otherwise trying to bleed him to death with paper cuts. Don’t look for Faris to come close to winning, but Franken’s numbers in the primary might help us gauge just how vulnerable he is to the whole ‘juicy porn’ line of attack in the general.

MN-01: There’s still a duel going on in this R+1 Rochester-based district for the right to get flattened by freshman Dem Tim Walz. State senator Dick Day seemed an early favorite for the GOP nomination, but Mayo Clinic physician Brian Davis has run an aggressive campaign well to the right of the affable Day, and with his sizable fundraising edge (much of which may be out of his own pocket) may shoot past Day. Either way, the nasty primary only serves to bolster Walz, who’s on the verge of securing this seat for good.

NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter was one of the biggest Democratic upsets in the 2006 cycle, and with mediocre polling numbers, a desire to hold the DCCC at arm’s length, and a potential rematch against the narrowly-defeated ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley, she may be one of this cycle’s most endangered Dem incumbents. However, the good news is that Bradley has been stumbling around in his own primary, against former New Hampshire Health and Human Services Director John Stephen. Stephen has been hitting the more moderate Bradley hard from the right, and has drawn even with him in fundraising. Both lag Shea-Porter’s cash stash (for a woman who hates to raise money, she sure raises money). Even if Bradley makes it through the primary, his empty wallet and mud-spattered suit will complicate efforts to retake this D+0 seat.

NH-02: Of the two new New Hampshire representatives from 2006, conventional wisdom has always viewed Paul Hodes as the safer one. Talk radio host Jennifer Horn is the challenger who’s probably drawn the most attention from the rest of the right-wing punditsphere (gee, I wonder why?), and she leads the fundraising chase. State senator Bob Clegg and former congressional aide Grant Bosse are still in the mix. Between the seat’s D+3 lean and Hodes’ huge cash advantage, though, any of them are likely to be no more than a speed bump for Hodes (as seen by our recent upgrade of this race to Safe Dem).

NY-10: At D+41, in this mostly African-American seat in Brooklyn, the primary is the main event. Edolphus Towns, who has held this seat since 1982, survived a three-way challenge in 2006, giving him the whiff of vulnerability. (Indeed, he’s seen stiff primary fights in other years as well.) This year, he faces another spirited challenge, this time from writer and community organizer Kevin Powell (best known for playing the role of ‘angry black guy’ on the very first season of MTV’s The Real World back in 1992). Towns has survived higher-profile challenges before, but with his checkered past (voting for bankruptcy reform and CAFTA, snuggling up to black Republican J.C. Watts) and Powell’s celebrity-fueled run, this is one to watch.

NY-13: This race has been an SSP staple since May. Rather than give you a blow-by-blow recap, I’ll simply redirect anyone not familiar with this race to SSP’s Timeline of GOP Disasters, as this race seems to make up a large portion of that epic work. Starting with Vito Fossella’s retirement upon his admission of his affair and love child, the GOP has with each subsequent incident fallen deeper and deeper into a rabbit hole of embarrassing absurdity.

As it stands, there is still an ostensibly competitive primary on each side of the aisle in this D+1 seat. On the Dem side, city councilor Mike McMahon is poised to win over attorney Steve Harrison. (McMahon is considered more conservative than Harrison, and Harrison has the advantage of being the ’06 candidate, but McMahon has the gigantic advantage of being from Staten Island, unlike Brooklynite Harrison, which is key in this parochial SI-based district.) McMahon has a large cash edge and DCCC backing.

On the GOP side, after every credible candidate (and some incredible ones as well) passed on the race, we’re down to a primary between Manhattan resident Robert Straniere (always referred to as “ex-Assemblyman/hot dog restauranteur”) and Jamshad “Jim” Wyne, treasurer of the Staten Island GOP. Both Straniere and Wyne are widely detested, have no money, and to make matters worse (for them), are now bashing each other incessantly.

NY-21: This race is a little reminiscent of CO-02: a big slate of liberal Democrats vying to take over a safe Democratic (D+9) seat being vacated by long-timer Mike McNulty. There are at least four credible candidates here: ex-Assemblyman Paul Tonko, former Hillary Clinton aide Tracey Brooks, Albany County Legislator Phil Steck, and former congressional aide Darius Shahinfar. Steck received the endorsement of the Albany County Democratic Committee, but Tonko seems to have a big edge in name recognition, based on an internal poll giving him a sizable lead. Tonko has key labor endorsements such as the SEIU; Brooks has the NOW endorsement; Steck and Shahinfar are endorsers of the Responsible Plan. In other words, we have four pretty solid progressives; just pick the flavor you like.

NY-26: This R+3 open seat in the Buffalo suburbs, left vacant when Tom Reynolds decided to hit the eject button, looked to present one more easy pickup for the New York Dems. Charismatic Iraq War vet Jon Powers quickly moved to grab the endorsement of all the Democratic Party organizations in each county. However, there’s one huge obstacle between Powers and the nomination: crazy tycoon Jack Davis, who, with his single-minded focus on fair trade and illegal immigrants, was possibly the only person who could have wrested defeat from the jaws of victory against Reynolds in 2006 at the height of the Mark Foley scandal. Davis, if you’ll recall, was the vanquisher of the Millionaire’s Amendment, freeing him to spend willy-nilly to buy this race. He was last heard from worrying about how immigrants will lead to the Second Civil War.

Although Powers has been a strong fundraiser, Davis has still been outspending Powers lately, purely out of his own pocket, and pummeling Powers over the alleged inefficacy of Powers’ charitable efforts for Iraqi kids. Either outcome doesn’t look good: Davis buying the primary and being cannon fodder in the general against the well-funded and uncontroversial Republican businessman Chris Lee, or a wounded and depleted Powers staggering into the general. (There’s a third candidate, “environmental” lawyer Alice Kryzan, but it doesn’t seem she has enough of a base to sneak unnoticed past the other two.)

MN-Sen: Franken Noses Coleman in New MPR Poll

The University of Minnesota/Humphrey Institute for Minnesota Public Radio (8/7-17, likely voters, 1/20-27 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 41 (43)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 40 (40)

Dean Barkley (I): 8 (-)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

The “trend line” presented here is stretched over such a long period, that it’s almost not worth including. Lest you think that the Humphrey Institute’s methodology is giving Franken a boost, keep in mind that Franken was running very close in other surveys from SurveyUSA, Rasmussen, and even the GOP firm McLaughlin & Associates in the early part of the year.

Is Franken pulling this one out of the fire?

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

MN-Sen: Gap Closes in New SUSA Poll

This one has been making the rounds today, but we finally have the opportunity to cut ‘er open and take a peak at its innards. SurveyUSA (8/13-14, likely voters, 7/11-13 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 39 (39)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 46 (52)

Other: 11 (n/a)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

A 13-point gap turns into a 7-point gap, but what’s the X factor here? The Independence Party, who have fielded seven candidates in their primary field, including Dean Barkley (whose 15 minutes expired five and a half years ago). “Other” wasn’t an option in the July poll, and the change in methodology, it seems, has helped shave a few points off Coleman’s hide.

SUSA’s age breakdowns have attracted some skepticism in their prior polls, and Coleman continues to hold a 48-36 lead among 18-34 year-olds, but that’s down sharply from the 58-31 lead he held in the July poll.

Bonus finding: In the presidential race, Obama edges McCain by a mere two points. However, SUSA is finally showing Obama with a clear lead among younger voters; he holds a 51-43 lead among the 18-34 bracket, which seems more reasonable than the 48-48 tie among these voters in SUSA’s June poll of Minnesota.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

MN-Sen: Still Close

Rasmussen (8/13, likely voters incl. leaners, 7/22 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 46 (49)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 49 (46)

(MoE: ±4%)

Franken and Coleman trade the lead, but the spread remains tight; without including leaners (although, again, I don’t see why this method is preferable), the race is tied at 45% apiece.

Franken’s favorables are still weak (48-48, compared to Coleman’s 53-44), and it’s worth pointing out that Rasmussen is the only pollster to show this race close or tied in the last several months.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.