Tag: MN-Sen

Quinnipiac just released two sets of Senate polls from two states, taken before and after the most recent Presidential debate. Let’s take a look.

Quinnipiac (10/8-12, likely voters, 10/3-7 in parens):

Mark Udall (D): 54 (48)

Bob Schaffer (R): 40 (43)

Undecided: 6 (9)

(MoE: ±3%)

It’s hard for me to believe that Udall had that big of a bounce after Obama’s debate, but I’ll take it.

Quinnipiac (10/8-12, likely voters, 10/3-7 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 38 (39)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 36 (37)

Dean Barkley (IP): 18 (17)

(MoE: ±3.1%)

Well, this is a pretty big deal, as Franken has never posted a lead in a Q-poll before now. It also happens to be the first time that Quinnipiac has included Barkley as an option, and it appears that his presence on the ballot has thrown this race wide open.

Bonus findings: Obama leads McCain by 52-43 in Colorado (through both polls), and 51-40 in Minnesota (51-43 pre-debate).

A few days ago, SSP changed its ratings of the Alaska and Minnesota Senate contests, but we didn’t get the chance to write about these moves until now. Let’s take a look.

Alaska (Stevens): Lean Democratic to Tossup

After Ted Stevens was indicted in July, we moved our rating of this race from Lean Republican to Tossup, and again a week later to Lean Democratic. However, recent polls and events at Stevens’ trial are forcing us to backtrack here.

After enjoying a brief bounce in the polls with the news of Stevens’ indictment, Begich’s numbers have come back down to earth, with one Rasmussen poll even showing Stevens taking a marginal lead. There’s no denying that Stevens is an institution within Alaska, and it’s not surprising that many voters feel reluctant to dump a man who has been representing the state in Washington for 40 years.

But most unsettling to us is what appears to be a very bungled prosecution of Stevens by the Feds. Due to sheer (willful?) mismanagement, Stevens’ federal prosecutors have seen key evidence been thrown out by Judge Emmet Sullivan, and stomach-turning fuck-ups like this one:

“Jurors will be instructed that the government presented evidence to those jurors that the government knew was not true,” Judge Sullivan told both sides this afternoon.

It would be no shock if Stevens received a full acquittal, which would be a huge boost to his re-election chances. That turn of events might not be fatal for Begich, but it would make this race significantly harder. With the trial’s outcome so uncertain, we no longer see a clear edge for Begich in this race.

Minnesota (Coleman): Lean Republican to Tossup

There’s no question that Al Franken had a pretty rough summer. He was put on the defensive for income tax snafus, off-color jokes cherry-picked from his long career as a comedian, and his temperament as a radio host. Lately, though, it seems that Norm Coleman is the one on the defensive — not only for his party label during a time of economic crisis, but also for a steady drip, drip of ethical woes (including shopping sprees at Neiman Marcus on the dime of one of his lobbyist pals).

Some recent polls have shown a lot of volatility, and the three most recent surveys all give leads of varying sizes to Franken. But one thing is also clear: Dean Barkley has emerged as a real spoiler in this race, consistently gobbling up a share of the vote in the mid-to-high teens in the polls — and at least some polling suggests that Barkley is cutting deeper into Coleman’s share of the pie than he is against Franken’s.

Perhaps sensing real danger, Coleman has made the move of pulling all of his negative ads from the airwaves. It remains to be seen whether this turns out to be too little, too late, but it is an indication that Coleman feels the need for a major strategic reorientation.

Rasmussen (10/9, likely voters, 9/18 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 43 (47)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 37 (48)

Dean Barkley (IP): 17 (3)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Talk about a big shift: in the three weeks since the last Rasmussen poll of the Minnesota senate race, Norm Coleman has dropped 11 points. (Some of that is related to the GOP’s rapidly declining fortunes at the Senate level, but Coleman’s constant drip drip of ethical woes can’t be helping.) Al Franken has also dropped, though by a much smaller amount, leaving him with the biggest lead he’s seen all year in Rasmussen.

The real news here is Dean Barkley’s surge, which right now seems to be coming disproportionately out of Coleman’s slice of the pie. However, in the poll’s fine print, only 3% of all voters are “absolutely certain” they will vote for Barkley, so his actual number may be much lower than 17%. The good news is: when uncommitted Barkley voters and other leaners are pushed to choose Franken or Coleman, Franken still leads, 50-46.

However, there’s one other possibility that we at least need to start considering: that Barkley continues to gain, and in fact wins Jesse Ventura-style by elbowing aside two unpopular candidates. Given the very high unfavorables for both Coleman (55% somewhat or very unfavorable) and Franken (53%), it can’t be ruled out.

Norm Coleman has availed himself with great gusto of the various side benefits of being a senator, without too much concern for technicalities like the “Senate Gift Ban.” For instance, you may recall from several months ago the story of the Capitol Hill apartment that he rented for a laughable $600 per month from a friend… er… business associate… uh… let’s just make that “lobbyist.” (He also occasionally outright neglected to pay the rent until the National Journal started asking, and once paid the rent with used furniture, with no problem.)

Turns out Coleman has other means of enjoying the largesse of his closest friends, if by close friends you mean “donors”: Harper’s just detailed Coleman’s relationship with Minnesota businessman and big GOP donor Nasser Kazeminy. This included several junkets, to the Bahamas and Paris, on Kazeminy’s plane.

It also included Kazeminy covering the cost for Coleman’s clothing shopping sprees, and by that, I don’t mean a trip to Target to buy a sweatshirt:

I’ve been told by two sources that Kazeminy has in the past covered the bills for Coleman’s lavish clothing purchases at Neiman Marcus in Minneapolis. The sources were not certain of the dates of the purchases; if they were made before Coleman joined the Senate in 2003, he obviously would not be required to report it under senate rules. But having a private businessman pay for your clothing is never a good idea if you’re a public official (Coleman was mayor of St. Paul from 1994 to 2002).

Remember a charming gentleman by the name of Robert Toricelli (aka “The Torch”), who was an up-and-coming Democratic power broker in the Senate until he got swamped by a self-inflicted tidal wave of sleaze in 2002? Apparently, the Torch had a taste for bespoke suits on someone else’s dime as well:

In a three-page judgment, the panel chastised Torricelli for allowing businessman David Chang–a friend who later was convicted of illegally siphoning money into the senator’s campaign–to provide him with personal gifts that some have called bribes. According to Chang, these “gifts” included cash, Italian-made suits, a 52-inch television and an $8,000 Rolex watch.

Sensing a potential problem here (in the face of a fast-rising Al Franken), Coleman’s campaign manager gave a press conference earlier today to deny any wrongdoing on this or any other ethical front. Much hilarious stonewalling ensued (see video link here). With his race suddenly descending into a tie in the last few days, this is one distraction that Coleman can’t afford.

Minnesota Public Radio recently commissioned two polls of the Minnesota Senate race, coinciding just before and after the VP debate — and the results were wildly different. Let’s take a look.

MPR/Humphrey Institute (9/29-10/1, likely voters, 8/7-17 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 31 (41)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 40 (40)

Dean Barkley (I): 14 (8)

(MoE: ±5.3%)

And here’s what they found in their next poll (10/3-5):

Al Franken (D): 41

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 37

Dean Barkley (I): 14

(MoE: ±4.8%)

MPR spins the dramatically different results as being influenced by “the extraordinary financial crisis and the resulting congressional response along with the polarizing reaction to the Vice Presidential debate on Oct. 2”.

Maybe. Or maybe there’s a flaw with their methodology. If anything, we’ve seem some dramatically varying polls out of Minnesota in recent days, so it’s hard to trust anything other than the Pollster.com composite. And guess what? It’s tightening.

Princeton Survey Research for Minneapolis Star Tribune (9/30-10/2, likely voters, 9/10-12 in parentheses):

Al Franken (D): 43 (37)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 34 (41)

Dean Barkley (IP): 18 (13)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

OK, the Minnesota senate race is officially making my head hurt. In the last 24 hours, we’ve seen a SurveyUSA poll give Coleman an unbeatable 10-point edge and a Dem internal give Franken a fragile 2-point edge… and now Minnesota’s principal newspaper (the Star Tribune) finds a 9-point lead for Franken, a huge turnaround from a 4-point Coleman lead two weeks ago during the height of Palinmania.

Like the SurveyUSA poll, this poll sees Barkley taking a bigger chunk out of the electorate. Interestingly, though, in this poll Barkley seems to be taking an equal bite out of each party: Franken and Coleman both get the support of 78% of their respective party members, while 12% of both Republicans and Democrats support Barkley. Instead, the real source of Franken’s success in this poll seems to be Coleman’s job approval rating, which has drifted down into Gordon Smith territory at 38%.

The presidential race numbers from the Star Tribune poll won’t be released until Sunday, but somehow I suspect they’ll be a bit better than the 1-point McCain lead that SUSA just reported.

The Mellman Group for the DSCC (9/29-10/1, likely voters):

Al Franken (D): 38

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 36

Dean Barkley (IP): 12

(MoE: ±4%)

This poll comes on the heels of a suspect SUSA poll that showed McCain leading by one point and Coleman by 10. Mellman finds that Norm’s job approval is still on the rocks, with only 32% approving and 56% disapproving of his performance in DC.

The poll also confirms that Independence Party nominee Dean Barkley is attracting a significant share of the vote, making this race a tough one to handicap.

SurveyUSA (9/30-10/1, likely voters, 9/10-11 in parens):

Al Franken (DFL): 33 (40)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 43 (41)

Dean Barkley (IP): 19 (14)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

I like SurveyUSA a lot, but their work in Minnesota has been all over the map, often with some weird results for younger voters. This poll is no different; voters aged 18-34 support Coleman by a margin of 44-33-13, that’s down from 48-33-14 for Franken earlier in September. Franken isn’t having an easy time in this race, yes, but I highly doubt that the kids love Coleman that much.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

UPDATE: Major warning bell — SUSA just released their Presidential numbers for Minnesota (conducted as part of the same poll as the Senate numbers), and McCain is leading by 47-46. That’s starkly different from the latest CNN/Time poll showing Obama up by 54-43. I’m pretty suspicious of this poll altogether.

(Hat-tip to Minnesota Mike for flagging this one.)

We’re up to our neck in new polls today — in other words, we’re now in horse race junkie heaven.

First, Colorado. Public Policy Polling (9/20-21, likely voters, 8/5-7 in parens):

Mark Udall (D): 48 (47)

Bob Schaffer (R): 40 (41)

Undecided: 12 (12)

(MoE: ±3%)

And Quinnipiac (9/14-21, likely voters, 7/14-22):

Mark Udall (D): 48 (44)

Bob Schaffer (R): 40 (44)

Undecided: 11 (11)

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Two quality polls from quality pollsters showing great results for Mark Udall. Sooner or later, Dick Wadhams & Co. will have to look down and realize that they’ve run off a cliff.

Bonus findings: Quinnipiac shows Obama leading McCain by 49-45 in Colorado, and PPP pegs Obama’s lead at a dramatic 51-44.

MN-Sen: Quinnipiac (9/14-21, likely voters, 7/14-22 in parens):

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 49 (53)

Al Franken (D): 42 (38)

Other: 3 (2)

Undecided: 6 (8)

(MoE: ±2.7%)

Well, the trend line is positive, so at least we have that much, but I wish that Quinnipiac included Dean Barkley in the match-up. We’ve already seen Barkley taking a significant share of the vote in other polls, so he’s the big X-factor here.

Bonus finding: Qunnipiac shows Obama edging McCain by 47-45 in Minnesota.

Rasmussen (9/18, likely voters, 8/13 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 47 (46)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 48 (49)

Dean Barkley (I): 3 (-)

(MoE: ±4%)

Coleman leads by a single point, which is not out of line with other recent polls showing Franken getting his groove back. What is out of line is Rasmussen pegging Dean Barkley at 3% of the vote. The last three polls of this race had Barkley gobbling up anywhere between 8-14% of the vote. While I don’t think that he’s going to take an exceptionally large share of the vote, I have to believe that in an exceptionally nasty race, he’s going to attract more than 3% in November.

Still, it’s good news for Franken, who has been on the receiving end of a series of attack ads recently that portray him as a mentally unhinged rageaholic. Perhaps the voters of Minnesota aren’t entirely turned off by someone who is steamed with the last eight years.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 52-44 in the state.