The markers that identify a likely retirement are a bit hazy and sometimes they move quickly. A likely retiree may be a bit up in years, in bad health, not fund raising, facing a difficult race, facing opposition within his own party. He or she may even be facing legal troubles. Among the likely contenders are Bill Jefferson, Vic Snyder, Leonard Boswell. Age and seniority alone might make John Dingell a possibility but I think that he will have to die in office or be seriously disabled.
Jefferson comes from a safe district but he has been indicted and has just $29,000 cash on hand. Considering his possible legal bills that is frightening (see Don Young for instruction). It is likely that post Katrina, the Republicans will try to conbine Jefferson’s LA-2 and Melancon’s LA-3. This could be the time for an ambitious and less tarnished NOLA pol to push Jefferson out.
Boswell is sitting pretty with over $700,000 cash on hand. Still, he’s 67 and has experienced bad health. I saw a tape of him in 2006 and he looked grandfatherly and sluggish. Boswell is facing energetic progressive legislator Ed Fallon in a primary. Fallon carried the Des Moines based district when he ran for Governor. Unlike in 2006, Boswell is not facing a top tier Republican challenger like Jeff Lamberti.
Vic Snyder pulled a miracle, again. For the third straight quarter, Snyder has failed to raise even a nickel. Zip, zero, nada. He’s got a comfortable seat representing Little Rock. Snyder can self fund a bit. The man is both a physician and a lawyer. He has no opponent and got nearly 60% of the vote vs. Andy Mayberry in 2006.
Al Wynn is being out fund raised by Donna Edwards. He certainly has friends in the telecom business. I figure Wynn to go down fighting but Maryland’s primary is on February 12. One spin of the dice and the precarious Mr. Wynn could be retired within the week.
Dennis Kucinich is being out raised, too. He’s got several opponents and Cimperman is well funded and feisty. Dennis is facing a March 3 primary. Retire into the sunset like Tancredo or Duncan Hunter? Nah. Be defeated? Possible.
Yvette Clark is young, a freshman. Still she doesn’t have a ton of cash and suffered from bad health earlier in the session. The seat was highly competitive when open, but just among Democrats. Clark is a maverick who was early pushing impeachment. New York’s primary is not until September.