Tag: Norm Coleman

Today’s Electoral-Vote.com write-up says that Coleman’s lead has dwindled to just FIVE votes (out of some 2.9 million cast), with another 379 Coleman challenges to go today.

I don’t know how many more Franken challenges, absentee ballots, or other miscellany there are to go, though.

Also, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v… says that the Lizard People ballot was rejected as an overvote (causing the person who hilariously made this ballot to probably become pissed at the canvassing board), but the Flying Spaghetti Monster and Frankenstin (sic) ballots were accepted as Franken votes.

Also, according to Coleman’s lawyer, “Lizard People” may in fact be the name of a real person.  Hmm, are the dinosaurs coming back???

Finally, it seems that the Minnesota Star-Tribune is seeking the person who marked the now infamous Lizard People ballot.

UPDATE: http://news.google.com/news/ur… says that Franken is up some 262 votes now.  But of course, let’s not forget that there are several thousand challenged ballots and another 1600 rejected absentees yet to be factored in.  Don’t hold your breath, and don’t become complacent either.

After a week of recounting, with 88% of the votes recounted:

http://ww2.startribune.com/new…

Coleman has added to his lead, partly by challenging more ballots (2885 to 2738), but also

because there aren’t many Democratic areas to recount.  St. Louis County is complete, Hennepin and Ramsey Counties are 87% and 81% complete, respectively.  Of the eight counties not yet started, seven of them went to Coleman.

So is it over for Al?  Without challenges, he’s only picked up 80 votes.  And with the strong possibility that the missing absentee ballots might not be counted, it’s getting grimmer for Franken.

The latest from the Star-Tribune with 77% of the votes recounted:

http://ww2.startribune.com/new…

Coleman is now up 210 votes, and Coleman is challenging 124 more ballots than Franken 1625 to 1501.

Ramsey County is 55% complete with a Franken gain of 40.  Even with all of the questionable Coleman challenges, I doubt Franken can overtake

Coleman in the December review.  There’s to just too much of a gap for Nate Silver’s projection to come through.

And most of the counties that haven’t reported anything yet are smaller and mostly rural–and Coleman won most of them.

So is it over for Al?

The latest:

http://ww2.startribune.com/new…

With 13% of precincts reporting, and 8% of the vote recounted, Norm Coleman is now ahead by 195 votes–a net gain of 20 for Al Franken.  Norm Coleman’s camp is challenging more ballots: 105 vs. 89 from Franken’s camp.

Note that challenged ballots are set aside and not included in the recount totals.

Somewhat encouraging, don’t you think?

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp…

So CQ Politics has the scoop that John Cornyn will be the next head of the NRSC. Sure has big shoes to fill after Liddy Dole and John Ensign’s sterling performances – if he only hemorrhages 5 seats it’ll be a major coup for the GOP.

This move shouldn’t come as a surprise as the two names previously mentioned for the seat were Cornyn and Norm Coleman, and Coleman’s too busy gaming the recount in Minnesota to focus on recruiting and fundraising for candidates across the nation quite yet.

John Ensign was quoted by the Politico in July:

They both would be very strong candidates,” Ensign said. “Cornyn brings Texas, but Coleman brings a national fundraising list and the Jewish fundraising base. They’ll both be good candidates.

http://www.politico.com/news/s…

Disregarding his Tommy Thompsonesque gaffe assuming Jewish people are inherently wealthy… it’s clear that the Republican Party would have liked to expand its fundraising base and electoral appeal beyond the South. You know, to actually combat the meme that they’re precipitously becoming a regional party?

But instead they get Cornyn, a Texan, Bush’s #1 lackey in the senate. Correct me if I’m wrong, but he’s never seemed like the most politically savvy guy in their caucus.

Quite auspiciously for us, this follows the news that Pete Sessions (R-TX) is Boehner’s pick to chair the NRCC. There’s only so much milkshake in Texas to go around, and it looks like the campaign wings of the GOP are going to be fighting over it, exhausting each other’s resources.

So, looking forward to 2010, it’s hard to predict what headwinds or tail winds the national mood will throw our candidates. But the way things look, we have reason to be hopeful that we at least won’t be outmaneuvered or out-fundraised.

Star Tribune (10/29-31, likely voters, 10/16-17 in parens):

Franken (D): 42 (39)

Coleman (R-inc): 38 (36)

Barkley (I): 15 (18)

Other/Undecided: 4 (7)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

This has been one hell of a race and looks to be as tight as they come, with a very narrow lead for Franken in the Pollster average:

Election night should be pretty fun in Minnesota.

Rasmussen (10/22, likely voters, 10/9):

Al Franken (D): 41 (43)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 37 (37)

Dean Barkley (I): 17 (17)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

There’s been little movement in Minnesota over the last few weeks, according to Rasmussen. Al Franken has lost a few points (apparently back to the undecided column), but things seem pretty stationary. The wild card in this race is independent Dean Barkley, but his rapid climb of the last couple months seems to have plateaued. This sample finds Coleman continuing to have trouble with the favorable/unfavorable question (46/50), while Franken actually cracks the 50% mark on favorability this time (51/47, with a very high 31% viewing him “very unfavorable”).

Univ. of Wisconsin (Big 10 Poll) (10/19-22, likely voters):

Al Franken (D): 40

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 34

Dean Barkley (I): 15

(MoE: ±4.2%)

The Big 10 poll, primarily a poll of presidential battlegrounds in midwestern states, also came out today, and this time they threw in the Minnesota Senate race for good measure (so no trendlines available on this one). Here, Franken leads by 6. Obama leads McCain in this sample by a crushing 57-38.

Rasmussen (10/9, likely voters, 9/18 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 43 (47)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 37 (48)

Dean Barkley (IP): 17 (3)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Talk about a big shift: in the three weeks since the last Rasmussen poll of the Minnesota senate race, Norm Coleman has dropped 11 points. (Some of that is related to the GOP’s rapidly declining fortunes at the Senate level, but Coleman’s constant drip drip of ethical woes can’t be helping.) Al Franken has also dropped, though by a much smaller amount, leaving him with the biggest lead he’s seen all year in Rasmussen.

The real news here is Dean Barkley’s surge, which right now seems to be coming disproportionately out of Coleman’s slice of the pie. However, in the poll’s fine print, only 3% of all voters are “absolutely certain” they will vote for Barkley, so his actual number may be much lower than 17%. The good news is: when uncommitted Barkley voters and other leaners are pushed to choose Franken or Coleman, Franken still leads, 50-46.

However, there’s one other possibility that we at least need to start considering: that Barkley continues to gain, and in fact wins Jesse Ventura-style by elbowing aside two unpopular candidates. Given the very high unfavorables for both Coleman (55% somewhat or very unfavorable) and Franken (53%), it can’t be ruled out.

Norm Coleman has availed himself with great gusto of the various side benefits of being a senator, without too much concern for technicalities like the “Senate Gift Ban.” For instance, you may recall from several months ago the story of the Capitol Hill apartment that he rented for a laughable $600 per month from a friend… er… business associate… uh… let’s just make that “lobbyist.” (He also occasionally outright neglected to pay the rent until the National Journal started asking, and once paid the rent with used furniture, with no problem.)

Turns out Coleman has other means of enjoying the largesse of his closest friends, if by close friends you mean “donors”: Harper’s just detailed Coleman’s relationship with Minnesota businessman and big GOP donor Nasser Kazeminy. This included several junkets, to the Bahamas and Paris, on Kazeminy’s plane.

It also included Kazeminy covering the cost for Coleman’s clothing shopping sprees, and by that, I don’t mean a trip to Target to buy a sweatshirt:

I’ve been told by two sources that Kazeminy has in the past covered the bills for Coleman’s lavish clothing purchases at Neiman Marcus in Minneapolis. The sources were not certain of the dates of the purchases; if they were made before Coleman joined the Senate in 2003, he obviously would not be required to report it under senate rules. But having a private businessman pay for your clothing is never a good idea if you’re a public official (Coleman was mayor of St. Paul from 1994 to 2002).

Remember a charming gentleman by the name of Robert Toricelli (aka “The Torch”), who was an up-and-coming Democratic power broker in the Senate until he got swamped by a self-inflicted tidal wave of sleaze in 2002? Apparently, the Torch had a taste for bespoke suits on someone else’s dime as well:

In a three-page judgment, the panel chastised Torricelli for allowing businessman David Chang–a friend who later was convicted of illegally siphoning money into the senator’s campaign–to provide him with personal gifts that some have called bribes. According to Chang, these “gifts” included cash, Italian-made suits, a 52-inch television and an $8,000 Rolex watch.

Sensing a potential problem here (in the face of a fast-rising Al Franken), Coleman’s campaign manager gave a press conference earlier today to deny any wrongdoing on this or any other ethical front. Much hilarious stonewalling ensued (see video link here). With his race suddenly descending into a tie in the last few days, this is one distraction that Coleman can’t afford.

Princeton Survey Research for Minneapolis Star Tribune (9/30-10/2, likely voters, 9/10-12 in parentheses):

Al Franken (D): 43 (37)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 34 (41)

Dean Barkley (IP): 18 (13)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

OK, the Minnesota senate race is officially making my head hurt. In the last 24 hours, we’ve seen a SurveyUSA poll give Coleman an unbeatable 10-point edge and a Dem internal give Franken a fragile 2-point edge… and now Minnesota’s principal newspaper (the Star Tribune) finds a 9-point lead for Franken, a huge turnaround from a 4-point Coleman lead two weeks ago during the height of Palinmania.

Like the SurveyUSA poll, this poll sees Barkley taking a bigger chunk out of the electorate. Interestingly, though, in this poll Barkley seems to be taking an equal bite out of each party: Franken and Coleman both get the support of 78% of their respective party members, while 12% of both Republicans and Democrats support Barkley. Instead, the real source of Franken’s success in this poll seems to be Coleman’s job approval rating, which has drifted down into Gordon Smith territory at 38%.

The presidential race numbers from the Star Tribune poll won’t be released until Sunday, but somehow I suspect they’ll be a bit better than the 1-point McCain lead that SUSA just reported.