Tag: MO-Sen

The Hill:

Rep. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) will announce his candidacy for Senate on Thursday, sources close to Blunt have confirmed.

Blunt has been expected to enter the 2010 race for weeks. His candidacy sets up a potential clash of the families in Missouri, as Secretary of State Robin Carnahan has entered the race on the Democratic side.

If Blunt, the father of unpopular ex-Gov. Matt Blunt, is the best the GOP can come up with here, then I like our chances with Carnahan. But like any statewide Missouri race in recent history, I would expect this to be closely-fought, and the early polling agrees.

However, primaries are still a distinct possibility here — state Treasurer Sarah Steelman is still contemplating a run on the Republican side, and 1st CD Rep. Lacy Clay is still “weighing his options” for the Democratic nomination.

Open seat fans shouldn’t get too excited about Blunt’s 7th CD — Obama lost the district by a 63-35 margin last November, only a slight improvement from John Kerry’s 67-32 beatdown four years earlier.

http://rturner229.blogspot.com…

The Turner Report reports that Talent issued a statement saying:

I have decided to withdraw my name from consideration for the Senate in 2010, for several reasons. First, there are other qualified Republicans who are seriously investigating the race, and it is vital to prevent the kind of dissension that hurt my Party’s ticket so greatly in 2008. In addition, I have family and public obligations which this unexpected race would disrupt. Chief among the latter is my work as Vice Chairman of the Commission on WMD Proliferation and Terrorism, which is working to prevent a nuclear or biological attack on the United States.”

“I am still very interested in serving the people of Missouri in elective office, but the considerations I have recited in this statement are more important than my personal goals.”

“My political priority in 2010 will be electing a strong and qualified Republican to replace my friend Kit Bond in the United States Senate”

Alexi Giannoulias, Illinois state treasurer, upset the incumbent in 2006 after being endorsed by Barack Obama met with Dick Durbin in Washington recently to discuss a potential senate bid.  Giannoulias also has the ability to self fund, being the former vice president of a bank.  

Giannoulias was in DC again last week to meet with potential campaign staff, fundraisers, etc. He also met with US Sen. Dick Durbin, who said yesterday that Giannoulias would be a “formidable” candidate if he runs. Giannoulias is clearly gearing up for a Senate bid.

http://thecapitolfaxblog.com/2…

In Ohio, Lt. Governor Fisher is all but in and will likely announce in the next 45 days.  

The quick entry of former Congressman Rob Portman into the contest for George Voinovich’s seat turned the heat up on everyone else in the kitchen, Fisher included. He said his answer will come in the next 45 days-maybe soon, maybe not-but it will be based on the first two of what he believes are the three reasons a candidate runs : personal, professional, and political. Fisher says this isn’t a run for his own gratification, but rather another way to help Governor Strickland and Senator Brown bring good paying jobs back to Ohio.

http://www.ohiodailyblog.com/c…

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Former State Treasurer of Missouri Sarah Steelman is also all but in, for Missouri’s senate race, ensuing, she is expected to cause collateral damage in a primary with Washington’s favorite Blunt.

Two Republican sources close to Steelman say after weeks of laying the groundwork, Steelman is “very, very likely” going to run for outgoing Sen. Kit Bond’s seat.

“She is continuing to meet with people across the state. She’s being encouraged by many supporters to run. She has had some great meetings in D.C. and around the state,” says one source. “Her message is about reform, transparency and accountability in government. That message is relevant now more than ever before.”

http://ky3.blogspot.com/2009/0…

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Tiarht’s (KS-04) R+12 district probably won’t be very competitive in the general election, but that doesn’t make the primary uninteresting!  First into the ring, State Senator Dick Kelsey.  

Kansas Sen. Dick Kelsey, R-Goddard, announced Friday that he will run for the 4th Congressional District seat being vacated by Todd Tiahrt.

Kelsey, the first candidate to officially announce he is seeking the office, made his plans known before about 100 supporters during a news conference at the Wichita Independent Business Association.

http://www.kansas.com/news/sta…

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In Virginia’s Democratic primary for Governor, Former state delegate Brian Moran turned on the offense against McCauliffe in front of Bill Clinton at the Democratic party’s Jefferson-Jackson dinner, trying to turn his financial advantage into a negative.  

At the Democratic Party of Virginia’s annual Jefferson-Jackson dinner  on Saturday, McAuliffe got an earful from former House member Brian Moran, who implied that the onetime DNC chairman is trying to buy the governor’s mansion by tapping his rolodex of national donors.

“We must decide what our party stands for,” Moran told the audience of activists in Richmond. “Will our party be dominated by big money and those who raise it, or will we be the party of the people?”

http://politicalticker.blogs.c…  

Say hello to two possible new senators in 2011: Robin Carnahan and Paul Hodes. Both confirmed today that they will be running in 2010, Carnahan in Missouri and Hodes in New Hampshire.

Missouri Sec. of State Carnahan will be running for the seat left open by Kit Bond’s retirement; her opponent won’t be known for a while (there will probably be a competitive GOP primary, with Rep. Roy Blunt, ex-Sen. Jim Talent, and ex-Treasurer Sarah Steelman eyeing the race), but a recent PPP poll shows her ahead of all of them. Her announcement video is here.

Rep. Paul Hodes is running for a seat that may or may not be open; it’s still unclear who Gov. John Lynch will appoint to replace Judd Gregg (who will become Commerce Secretary), although sources point to Gregg’s former chief of staff Bonnie Newman. The Union-Leader reports: “She is not expected to run for a full term in 2010.”

Hodes had already been considering an uphill battle against an incumbent Gregg, but with the Gregg’s departure and the expectation that Newman will serve two years and not run for re-election, it looked like too good an opportunity for Hodes to pass up.

The developments surrounding that surprising appointment by President Obama “has sped up his timeline and he will make a formal announcement within the week,” the source said.

PPP (1/10-11, registered voters):

Robin Carnahan (D): 45

Roy Blunt (R): 44

Robin Carnahan (D): 47

Jim Talent (R): 43

Robin Carnahan (D): 47

Sarah Steelman (R): 36

(MoE: ±3.3%)

As we suspected, Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is more or less the front-runner for the open seat left behind by Kit Bond’s retirement. At the same time, it’s not currently a cakewalk for her, as Rep. Roy Blunt and ex-Sen. Jim Talent poll within close striking distance of her.

I’ll admit I’m surprised to see Blunt so close to Carnahan and in fact doing better than Talent, considering that Blunt, at least in his House leadership role, seemed like an unlikable, polarizing figure (and add to that the fact that Talent has run statewide a number of times, while Blunt may not be that well known outside MO-07). That’s just not my gut talking; PPP finds that Blunt is the only one of the four candidates with greater unfavorables than favorables (he’s at 40/43, while Carnahan is at 45/36 and Talent is at 45/39.

PPP has a good explanation, though. Their crosstabs suggest that Blunt has a large bipartisan core of support in his conservative southwestern House district, and some of that support includes a fair number of Democrats in his district who apparently would support Carnahan in a Carnahan/Talent matchup.

Strike one off the list:

Missouri Rep. Jo Ann Emerson (R) will not run for Senate in 2010, her office confirmed Friday morning. Sen. Kit Bond (R-Mo.) announced Thursday that he is retiring from the Senate after four terms.

Emerson spokesman Jeffrey Connor said the Congresswoman was content to stay in the House with her new post as the ranking member on the Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government.

Benji Smith:

Two Republican operatives close to former Sen. Jim Talent say he is likely to run for the Missouri Senate seat of retiring Sen. Kit Bond (R-Mo.).

One Republican operative close to Talent said that he has been “itching to run” since losing to Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) in 2006, and is eager to make a political comeback.

Interesting. I’d love to see this loser get his ass handed to him for the second time. On the Democratic side of the bench, Smith writes that Robin Carnahan seems like a solid bet to run:

On the Democratic side, Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, daughter of the late Sen. Mel Carnahan, will likely be the nominee. One Democratic operative said she has already been preparing for a Senate campaign – even before Bond announced his retirement.

Carnahan won more than 1.74 million votes statewide in 2008 – more than any other statewide Democratic candidate in Missouri history.

I have to wonder if a Robin Carnahan candidacy would clear the Democratic field of all serious comers. At this point, I suspect it would.

Update: The National Review hears buzz that GOP Rep. Roy Blunt is also interested in the race.

Big news out of the Show Me State: Christopher “Kit” Bond, senator since 1986, will not be running for re-election in 2010. This contradicts Bond’s statements of even several months ago that he would seek a fifth term.

Previous polls had indicated this would be a competitive race even with Bond running for re-election (R2K recently saw only a 4-point edge for Bond against Secretary of State Robin Carnahan). But with an open seat… and with a whole bench full of Carnahans on our side and rather middling pickins on the GOP side… this suddenly moves up next to Florida on the 2010 senate watch list.

We recently discussed possible candidates in the Missouri recruitment thread. (bpfish‘s comment in that diary is pretty comprehensive, and definitely merits a read.) On the Dem side, as previously mentioned, Robin Carnahan probably tops most people’s lists, but her brother, Rep. Russ Carnahan, could just as easily be the one. (The other Dem representatives are Lacy Clay and Emanuel Cleaver, African-Americans representing urban districts who are unlikely to make the jump to statewide, and Ike Skelton, who is in his 70s and unlikely to give up his Armed Services gavel.) Other possibilities include Auditor Susan Montee, and ex-state rep. Judy Baker, who just narrowly lost the House race in the conservative 9th District.

Tons of possibilities on the GOP side, starting with former governor Matt Blunt, who’s young but may need more time than that to rehabilitate his image from his unsuccessful gubernatorial term. Representatives Sam Graves (who won convincingly in a should-have-been-competitive race), Jo Ann Emerson, and Todd Akin may all be eyeing the race. (The other GOP reps are Blaine Luetkemeyer, who’s brand new, and Roy Blunt, who seems to be looking for an exit strategy.)

Ex-Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who lost the gubernatorial primary, may also be a possibility, as may be ex-Rep. Kenny Hulshof, although he may have lost the governor’s race by too large a margin to be taken seriously any more. More remote possibilities include former senators Jim Talent and John Ashcroft (yes, John Ashcroft) coming back for another bite at the apple. Last but not least… don’t rule out Brock Olivo. The 9th District was just too small a stage for a mind as expansive as his. (Discussion already underway in txobserver‘s diary.)

Via Political Wire from Politico:

Sen. Kit Bond, the senior Republican from Missouri who sits on powerful Senate committees, announced Thursday that he will not run for reelection in 2010, giving Democrats a shot to pick up a seat in a state that has emerged as a major battleground.

The announcement is a blow to Senate Republicans who now will have at least four of their incumbents seeking retirement at the end of the session, a sign that 2010 could be another tough cycle for the weakened GOP minority.

In addition to Bond, Sens. Mel Martinez of Florida and Sam Brownback of Kansas are retiring, and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas may run for governor of her home state, creating another opening.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (12/2-4, likely voters)

Robin Carnahan (D): 43

Christopher Bond (R-inc): 47

(MoE: ±4%)

The Great Orange Satan has started polling potential matchups for 2010, and as suspected, one potentially vulnerable Republican incumbent is Kit Bond in Missouri. Matched against possible candidate Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (member of Missouri’s preeminent political family), 22-year incumbent Bond leads by only 4 points.

Bond’s favorables are just under the 50% mark at 49/43, while the less-known Carnahan clocks in at 48/26 with 26% having no opinion, giving her a lot of room for growth. Interestingly, the only region of the state where Carnahan currently leads is the city of St. Louis; if (like Claire McCaskill in 2006) she can maintain usual Democratic margins in the urban parts of the state while holding down losses in the state’s big red middle, she can eke out the victory.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (12/2-4, likely voters)

Ken Salazar (D-inc): 49

John Elway (R): 38

(MoE: ±4%)

Ken Salazar (D-inc): 51

Tom Tancredo (R): 37

Research 2000 also released the first set of polls for the 2010 senate race in Colorado (diaried yesterday by safi), which at least has the potential of being the Democrats’ top vulnerability. However, Ken Salazar is looking pretty safe against two top GOP contenders. One of those contenders is polarizing bigot Tom Tancredo, whom you wouldn’t expect to get much traction, but the other one is former Broncos QB (and car dealer) John Elway, a popular if not legendary figure in Colorado. But apparently he’s lacking in the political skills department, if he’s barely running ahead of the loathsome Tancredo (and he certainly can’t blame lack of name recognition).

Former GOP Gov. Bill Owens is sometimes mentioned as a candidate, although he hasn’t taken any steps in that direction. He ended his term fairly popular and would probably fare better than either of these clowns, so it would be interesting to see a head-to-head with him included.