Tag: OH-Sen

Little Bobby Portman wants to make good:

Rob Portman will run for the U.S. Senate in 2010, the former Cincinnati congressman told The Enquirer.

“I’ve made up my mind. I really think that our state is in such deep economic trouble right now, and our country has so many challenges that it’s time to step forward,” Portman said in a phone interview.

Portman, 53, of Terrace Park, said he will make a formal announcement of his candidacy at an 11 a.m. event at the Golden Lamb in Lebanon. He’ll then depart on a two-day campaign announcement tour through the state with stops in Toledo, Cleveland, Columbus and ending back in Cincinnati with an event at the Montgomery Inn on Thursday.

I’m really looking forward to watching the DSCC do their thing against this Bush lackey. Still, I have to wonder if any of the other potential candidates (Ken Blackwell, state Auditor Mary Taylor, and Mike DeWine) will make it a contested GOP primary. Let’s hope so!

Good news:

Senate Minority Leader Capri Cafaro of Liberty, D-32nd, said she’s not interested in running for the U.S. Senate.

Not so good news:

But if Ryan decides to run for the Senate, thus not seeking re-election to the House, Cafaro may run for the House seat. She’d first wait for Ryan to announce his candidacy for the Senate.

“It’s not something I’d rule out,” she said. “I’d consider that option at that time, but it’s very premature.”

For a two-minute refresher on Cafaro, see this vintage DavidNYC post for more.

Update: Another thought here — this would be the third CD that Cafaro has run in during the past six years. She already ran (and flamed out horribly) against 14th District Rep. Steve LaTourette in 2004, and then lost the 13th CD primary in 2006 after Sherrod Brown ran for Senate.

It’s been the world’s worst-kept secret for the last three days or so, but this morning George Voinovich made it official: he’s hanging it up in 2010, leaving behind an open seat in a swing state where the recent momentum has been with the Democrats.

In a statement from his office, Voinovich emphasized that he wanted to spend his final two years in the Senate focusing on legislating instead of campaigning.

“These next two years in office, for me, will be the most important years that I have served in my entire political career,” Voinovich said in a statement. “I must devote my full time, energy and focus to the job I was elected to do, the job in front of me, which seeking a third term – with the money-raising and campaigning that it would require – would not allow me to do.”

All eyes turn to the ensuing musical chairs now; Roll Call, like most outlets, posits ex-Rep. and ex-OMB Director Rob Portman as the likeliest GOP candidate (although with no mention of John Kasich as a backup; instead it offers retread Mike DeWine and nutjob Ken Blackwell as other options). As always, we’ll keep you posted as hats get thrown into the ring.

UPDATE: Well, that was fast. Politico‘s Scorecard is already reporting that Rob Portman is getting in the race and will announce his candidacy shortly. Let’s see if that has the effect of clearing the field.

UPDATE, part deux: On the Democratic side, Politico is now reporting that Rep. Tim Ryan is making loud public noises about “certainly consider”ing the Senate race, while Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher’s surrogates are saying that he is “leaning against running.” I wonder if we could have both fields cleared within the next few days?

Politico:

Ohio Republican George Voinovich is expected to announce Monday that he won’t seek reelection to the Senate in 2010.

A two-term senator, former governor and Cleveland mayor, Voinovich has been a political fixture in his state for decades. But recent press reports from his home state have indicated the 72-year-old lawmaker is considering retirement, and a person close to him told Politico that the announcement will come Monday. […]

A Voinovich spokesman would only confirm that he will make an announcement Monday on his future. But a Senate Republican leadership aide said that Voinovich’s planned retirement is “real” and an announcement will come soon.

Assuming Voiny follows through tomorrow, his announcement will be the fourth GOP Senate retirement this cycle so far (Brownback, Martinez, and Bond being the other three amigos), and will hand Democrats another excellent opportunity to pad their majority.

For the Democrats, Lt. Governor Lee Fisher and 17th CD Rep. Tim Ryan appear to be on a primary collision course, though other names could conceivably throw down, as well. Republican contenders include ex-Reps. Rob Portman and John Kasich, though it might be nice for House Democrats if someone like, say, current 12th CD Rep. Pat Tiberi gave up his seat to run for the job, as well.

Perhaps more importantly, the recent wave of Republican retirements seems to have induced a certain level of panic among Senate GOPers:

Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), one of the biggest fundraisers for the NRSC last cycle, said the wave of retirements has caused some panic among Republicans.

“I’m really concerned because it’s important we have some balance here because if we don’t, one side can do whatever it wants to do, and that’s not good for the country,” Hatch said. “To the extent that some of these folks decide to leave and they certainly have the right to do that, we’re going to have to find good candidates to run and hopefully hold onto our seats.”

Finding good candidates should be Job No. 1 for Republicans right now, but the early signs aren’t all that encouraging for John Cornyn’s NRSC: Jeb Bush has already turned down a Senate seat that could have easily been his in Florida, and the committee has no obvious silver bullets in Missouri and Ohio. Moreover, we have yet to hear much in the way of serious buzz surrounding challenges to Democratic incumbents in 2010.

Republicans may have some wind at their backs if Obama stumbles or if the national economy slides further over the next two years, but they may not be in much of a position to take advantage of that if they end up being saddled by retirements and recruitment failures made in these early days of no hope.

More discussion already under way in Populista’s diary.

Update: CNN says that their sources are also confirming the same details about Voinovich’s announcement tomorrow, which will come at 4pm Eastern.

So says Politico

Ohio Republican George Voinovich is expected to announce Monday that he won’t seek re-election to the Senate in 2010.

Cue the music

This is retirement number four for Big Bad John and Co. just five days into the 11th Congress. In addition to that everyone knows that Kay Bailey Hutchison will make a run for governor and may resign to focus on that. Democrats have legitimate chances to pick up all of them.

Republicans likely to take a shot at the seat include Rob Portman and John Kasich. Democrats have a large field of potential candidates including Rep. Tim Ryan and Rep. Betty Sutton but the CW in Ohio says that Lt. Governor Lee Fisher will run and clear the field with Gov. Ted Strickland’s backing.  

The Republicans so far are dropping like flies. Big Bad John Deathwatch Part 1?

Also at this point in the 2008 cycle no Republican had announced their retirement. Wayne Allard announced his retirement on January 15th, 2007. The next retirement wasn’t until August 31. In 2006 only Bill Frist retired for the Republicans.  If I remember correctly Democrats won quite a few seats in those elections, imagine what 2010 will look like.  

Matt Lewis sez so:

… In other news, I am hearing rumors coming out of Ohio that Senator Voinovich is seriously considering making an announcement next week that he won’t be running for re-election. According to my sources, Rob Portman would likely be the Republican to replace him. This also opens up the GOP gubernatorial nomination for former Republican Congressman John Kasich.

Hoo-boy. A Voinovich retirement would make four in the Senate GOP’s ranks (Brownback, Martinez, and Bond being the first to go), and would surely turn into a top-tier tossup race, with Democrats Lee Fisher (Ohio’s Lt. Governor) and Rep. Tim Ryan being two of the most likely primary contenders. I have to wonder, though: would it have been better for either of these guys to run against Voino rather than a magically unblemished Rob Portman? Discuss.

(Mad props to Populista for the catch.)

Update: Voiny’s office confirms what we already know:

Sen. George Voinovich (R-Ohio) is considering retirement, but his office confirmed he has not yet made a final decision about what he will do in 2010.

“For over 40 years, Sen. Voinovich has demonstrated a passion for public service,” said Chris Paulitz, a senior adviser to Voinovich. “He is thinking about the challenging situation in his beloved Buckeye State and the direction of the country, as well as what is best for his family. If he changes his mind about running, he will share that decision quickly with the people of Ohio – people he considers his second family.”

Whether or not GOP Sen. George Voinovich actually runs for another term in 2010 remains to be seen, but you can bet that Democrats will attempt to mount a major challenge for his seat that year — especially with Voiny running neck-and-neck with “Generic D” in the latest polling. Who is your preferred candidate for the task?

On the gubernatorial side of the equation, Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland has earned positive reviews during his first term so far, but the GOP probably won’t cede this race by any means. Who do you imagine will step up for Team Red?

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I love reading nonpartisan Marc Ambinder’s blog, as he’s very often good for insider tidbits on my favorite hobby of campaigns and elections.

But one little thing he passed off as merely incidental today is anything but……

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I love reading nonpartisan Marc Ambinder’s blog, as he’s very often good for insider tidbits on my favorite hobby of campaigns and elections.

But one little thing he passed off as merely incidental today is anything but……

Ambinder posted a lengthy scribe today about the “meaning” of Chambliss’ victory over Jim Martin in the 2008 GA-Sen runoff.

Key text, at the very very very end:

“But… more Republican retirements are expected, including at least two in blue states (Chuck Grassley of Iowa and George Voinovich of Ohio.)”

WOAH!  Don’t you dare try to pass that off as an aside, Marc!  🙂

Seriously, I don’t think Ambinder realizes this is not any kind of “common knowledge” or “open secret” in the world of political junkies, and I speak as one in Greater D.C. even though I’m far from an “insider.”

If a bunch of insiders “expect” Voinovich and Grassley to hang it up, that’s news to me and to almost every blog I read.  In Grassley’s case, yes, the 77-year old 5-term Senator is the speculation of retirement, but naked speculation is all I’ve read or heard.  And I’d read or heard nothing about Voinovich retiring.

If these seats are open, then my home state of Iowa is a “should” win for us, with Dems having the much deeper bench these days, but Ohio could be much more competitive.  Iowa is a state where I’d love to see Vilsack vs. Latham, in which case we very easily could pick up both the Senate seat and IA-04.  Ohio is just a more ideologically conservative state than Iowa, and one that I think still has a very slight red tilt.  Ultimately recruitment in Ohio is much more wide open on both sides.

But make no mistake, in either state a retirement only helps us pick up the Senate seat.

Our friends over at Public Policy Polling are once again opening the floor for you to suggest Democratic candidates to include in their 2010 Senate match-up polls of Missouri (Kit Bond) and Ohio (George Voinovich). PPP has previously tested Robin Carnahan and Susan Montee against Bond in Missouri, so it’ll be interesting to see who they’ll choose next. Former Gov. Roger Wilson or Rep. Russ Carnahan, maybe?

In the 2010 race against Ohio Sen. George Voinovich, PPP has previously tested Betty Sutton, Tim Ryan, Mike Coleman, and Jennifer Brunner — all of whom posted competitive numbers. Who should be next?

If you feel so inclined, please swing by Public Policy Polling and drop them a note with your suggestions.

Because it’s never too early to look ahead, Public Policy Polling tested Republican Sen. George Voinovich’s strength in two hypothetical 2010 match-ups. Let’s check the score (5/17-18, likely voters):

Tim Ryan (D): 33

George Voinovich (R-inc): 33

Undecided: 34

Betty Sutton (D): 32

George Voinovich (R-inc): 37

Undecided: 32

(MoE: ±3.6%)

If Voinovich’s term expired this year, it’s clear that he’d be in a Mike DeWine-style world of trouble. Ohioans seem to have little patience for the Senator, giving him an abysmal 31%/39% job approval/disapproval rating.

Tim Ryan has been frequently touted as a future statewide candidate for Democrats, but Betty Sutton is a newer name on the speculation scene. One potential candidate that PPP did not test is perennial loser and heiress Capri Cafaro. I highly doubt she would ever make it out of a statewide primary against a top-tier Democrat, though.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 50-39 in the poll.

(H/T: Andy Dufresne)