Tag: OH-Sen

Is Zack Space serious?

The Ohio Democratic Party’s Saturday dinner in Cleveland, organized to celebrate its 2008 victories, was actually dominated by talk of victories in 2010. (Finally, the party is looking ahead!)

Five Democrats – Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, Lt. Governor Lee Fisher, Cincinnati State Rep. Tyrone Yates, Dover Congressman Zack Space and Cuyahoga County Commissioner Peter Lawson Jones – pitched themselves for the U.S. Senate seat occupied by Republican George Voinovich, who is retiring at the end of next year. (Emphasis added)

“Pitched” himself? Really? How does Space expect to find oxygen in an already-crowded field? By running as the conservative alternative in what is shaping up to be a fairly liberal pack? I find it difficult to imagine that Space is foolish enough to give up his seat in the House for a slim shot in a Senate primary, but I guess you never know.

And speaking of potential Ohio vacancies, perhaps there’s still a chance that 17th CD Rep. Tim Ryan may go statewide after all:

Fisher’s door to run for re-election with Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland is closing fast. Strickland, who already endorsed Fisher for the senate seat, is actively interviewing candidates for a new running mate. He is said to be interested in, among others, Youngstown Congressman Tim Ryan. Democrats say the governor hopes to announce a decision in a month.

• OH-Sen: Dennis Kucinich announced yesterday that he would not be a candidate for the open Senate seat in Ohio, saying he wanted to spend more time with his mothership. (D)

• WA-08: Darcy Burner makes it official that she won’t be running a third time in WA-08; she throws her endorsement behind Suzan DelBene, another former Microsoft exec who hasn’t run for office before. Don’t expect DelBene to have the primary field to herself, though.

• CT-Gov: After a few years out of the spotlight, Ned Lamont is exploring a run for Connecticut governor. Jodi Rell hasn’t decided whether she’s going to run for re-election, and Lamont might also face a crowded Dem primary field.

• IL-Sen: The prospect of a special election to replace Roland Burris was unlikely, given the expense, and now it just got a lot unlikelier: a 3-2 party-line vote against the election in a state senate committee has effectively put the idea to bed.

• CO-Sen: The first Republican opponent for Michael Bennet (or another victor of a Democratic primary) has surfaced, and it’s not the highest-profile guy around: Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (who’d mostly been discussed as a challenger to Betsy Markey in CO-04). Ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez may be the GOP’s top recruit left who’s still interested, but he hasn’t made anything official yet.

• Blue Dogs: The Blue Dog Coalition two years ago capped its enrollment at 20% of the Dem caucus, but they agreed to raise their limit to 21% to accommodate two additional members. New members include the four freshmen who ran under the Blue Dogs’ endorsement (Bobby Bright, Parker Griffith, Frank Kratovil, and Walt Minnick), two veterans who’ve been on the waiting list (Henry Cuellar and Harry Mitchell), and two more last-minute additions thanks to the lifted cap (Glenn Nye and Jason Altmire). The NRCC has sent out a hilarious press release attacking vulnerable Democratic freshmen who didn’t join the Blue Dogs (such as Larry Kissell), claiming that they were rejected for not meeting the Blue Dogs’ litmus test for fiscal discipline, but the Blue Dogs, to their credit, fired back, saying that the representatives in question didn’t ask to join.

• Votes: Speaking of Blue Dogs, they provided most of the defections on yesterday’s 234-191 vote on the Helping Families Save Their Homes Act, which included the controversial mortgage modification provision. After all the agitas from Ellen Tauscher and other New Dems, they almost all voted yea. There were 24 Democratic nays, with Eric Massa probably the biggest surprise: also Mike Arcuri, Marion Berry, Dan Boren, Rick Boucher, Bobby Bright, Travis Childers, Kathy Dahlkemper, Lincoln Davis, Chet Edwards, Brad Ellsworth, Bart Gordon, Parker Griffith, Baron Hill, Tim Holden, Ron Kind, Larry Kissell, Frank Kratovil, Betsy Markey, Jim Matheson, Bart Stupak, Gene Taylor, and Harry Teague. (Big ups to Walt Minnick, who voted yea.) 7 Republican yeas: Mike Castle, Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Mario Diaz-Balart, Walter Jones, John McHugh, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, and Jim Turner. (Joe Cao didn’t vote.)

• TN-06: Democratic Rep. Bart Gordon gets a challenger: Dave Evans, a Major General in the United States Army Reserve. Rick Goddard 2.0? (J)

• NH-Sen: Oh, darn. Ex-Sen. Bob Smith isn’t planning to run in the GOP primary for Judd Gregg’s open senate seat. He said he prefers to remain a Florida resident.

• OH-Sen: Add a fourth candidate (and, with Tyrone Yates, a second African-American with a less-than-statewide profile) to the mix in the Ohio senate primary: Cuyahoga County Commissioner Peter Lawson Jones. Last week he told Ohio Daily Blog that he’d be forming an exploratory committee this week. (No telling if that actually happened.)

• OH-02: You may remember David Krikorian, an independent who racked up double-digits in last year’s Schmidt/Wulsin faceoff. He’s announced that he’s going to seek the Democratic nomination for a rerun, as a loud ‘n’ proud Blue Dog.

• IL-05: It’s the last weekend of campaigning before the Mar. 3 primary for the special election to fill Rahm Emanuel’s seat. With 12 candidates and projected low turnout, basically anything can happen. While Emanuel hasn’t endorsed, Politico does observe that there’s a Sara Feigenholtz sign in his yard in Chicago.

• DCCC: Chris Van Hollen announced his 2009-10 chair for candidate recruitment: Rep. Steve Israel (of NY-02). He also announced that Robby Mook, most recently Jeanne Shaheen’s campaign manager, will take over as the DCCC’s political director.

• FEC: This ought to make James’s job a lot easier: Russ Feingold has introduced legislation, widely expected to pass, requiring Senate candidates to electronically file their campaign finance reports with the FEC, the way House candidates already do. Currently, Senate filings are paper-only.

• KY-St Sen.: Here’s a bit of good news that’s a few weeks old that eluded us until now: a Democratic candidate, Mike Reynolds, won the Feb. 11 special election to fill the state senate seat vacated by Republican Brett Guthrie (elected in KY-02 in November). The 32nd, based in Bowling Green, is in a deep red area at the federal level, but apparently still maintains a downballot Dem tradition. The GOP still controls the state senate, 21-16-1.

• NYC: SSP doesn’t usually delve into county-level governance, but this involves one of the legal community’s most legendary members: Bob Morgenthau, the District Attorney of New York County (aka Manhattan), has decided not to go for a 10th term. Currently 89 years old, he’s been in office for 35 years.

• Retread Watch: Yeah, there’s some precedent for this. But isn’t it a little sad that twice-defeated House loser Jeb Bradley is considering a run for New Hampshire state Senate?

We’re going to try out a new feature for weekday afternoons here at Swing State Project: four or five links to various items that we want to get out there but don’t feel like investing a diary’s worth of effort on. Enjoy the bullet points! (We encourage you to add your own bullet points in the comments, and otherwise treat this as an open thread.)

• UT-Sen: Daily Kos polls the 2010 Utah Senate race, where the action appears to be in the primary, but Bob Bennett looks safe for another 6 years. Bennett beats David Leavitt 44-23 in the primary, and, in the general, manhandles Rep. Jim Matheson 55-32 and Jeopardy! champion Ken Jennings 57-21, not that we should expect either of them to run.

• OH-Sen: A third Dem has jumped into the primary field for the 2010 Senate race: state representative Tyrone Yates. He doesn’t have the stature of Fisher or Brunner, but as the only African-American and only Cincinnati-area candidate, he may well complicate things.

• WA-08: The first Dem challenger has announced, and it’s another wealthy ex-Microsoft executive, Suzan DelBene. Don’t look for her to have the field to herself this time, though.

• MN-Sen: In an indication that the Coleman camp has exhausted every possible legal argument that can win in court, he’s moved onto arguing that it was basically a tie so let’s just have a do-over election. Not the kind of thing that someone who has a hope of winning in court ever says.

• Census: The Congressional Black Caucus is pushing the White House to keep the Census within its portfolio even though reliable Dem Gary Locke will now be taking over at Commerce.

• Blogospheria: Blogger brainpower (including Jane Hamsher, Glenn Greenwald, Markos Moulitsas, and Nate Silver) and union bucks come together in the new Accountability Now PAC. The goal is to pressure (and where there’s a good target, primary) bad Dems and create more space for good Dems to maneuver on the left.

• RI-01: Republican state representative John Loughlin is strongly considering a suicide mission against challenge to Rep. Patrick Kennedy. Kennedy got 69% against no-names in his last two elections, but apparently his approval ratings are softening.

• HI-01: In another district where you might be surprised to know there’s an elected Republican, Honolulu city councilor Charles Djou has announced his candidacy for HI-01, which is expected to be vacated by Neil Abercrombie as he goes for governor. Djou claims the endorsement of every Republican in Hawaii’s legislature (all 7 of them).

• NC-Sen: Former state treasurer, and gubernatorial primary loser, Richard Moore won’t be getting involved in the Dem primary to take on Richard Burr in 2010. The field looks clearer for AG Roy Cooper.

It looks like Tim Ryan will be staying out of the race for retiring GOP Sen. George Voinovich’s Senate seat, but he isn’t staying out of the primary war between Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher:

Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), who mulled running for the Senate seat, will now be endorsing Fisher according to a senior Ohio Democratic source.

So it begins. Expect more movers and shakers to pick a side in the near future. One key player to keep an eye on: Sherrod Brown.

But hey, at the very least, with Ryan taking a pass on the Senate race, we won’t be seeing Capri Cafaro in Congress anytime soon.

Politico:

Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner will be announcing that she’s running, according to a senior Ohio Democratic operative. She will be declaring her candidacy in a statement to be released this afternoon.

If elected, Brunner would become the first woman elected to the Senate from Ohio.

Brunner will be receiving the endorsement of the women’s group EMILY’s List, which will help her raise the millions necessary for a statewide campaign.

This comes as something of a surprise, as Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland was engaged in something of a blocking pattern for his Number One, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher — who has himself set up an exploratory committee and was expected to announce a decision within a few weeks. It remains to be seen whether Strickland and Fisher would want to go ahead with a major primary skirmish.

Two recent polls have actually shown Brunner in slightly weaker shape than Fisher against Rob Portman (PPP and Quinnipiac), although Brunner may be suffering a bit from a contentious election (and post-election) season after engaging in a number of battles with the Ohio GOP on early voting and the drawn-out OH-15 saga. (Although, according to Quinnipiac’s latest, voter resentment on this score may be fading away.)

In any case, holding Brunner’s SoS seat will be imperative for a lot of reasons. (UPDATE by Crisitunity: Of course, there’s making sure that there’s no voter suppression in Ohio in the 2012 presidential election. But Democrats also desperately need to hold the SoS seat for purposes of state legislative redistricting (decisions for which are made by a 5-member board, one member of which is the SoS). Dems hold a 3-2 advantage on the board right now, so holding the SoS seat is necessary to crack the current ridiculous pro-GOP gerrymander of Ohio legislative districts.)

UPDATE (James): Fisher is now in, too. Get ready to rumble. (Hat-tip: LeftistAddiction)

LATER UPDATE: Brunner announcement video available here.

Alexi Giannoulias, Illinois state treasurer, upset the incumbent in 2006 after being endorsed by Barack Obama met with Dick Durbin in Washington recently to discuss a potential senate bid.  Giannoulias also has the ability to self fund, being the former vice president of a bank.  

Giannoulias was in DC again last week to meet with potential campaign staff, fundraisers, etc. He also met with US Sen. Dick Durbin, who said yesterday that Giannoulias would be a “formidable” candidate if he runs. Giannoulias is clearly gearing up for a Senate bid.

http://thecapitolfaxblog.com/2…

In Ohio, Lt. Governor Fisher is all but in and will likely announce in the next 45 days.  

The quick entry of former Congressman Rob Portman into the contest for George Voinovich’s seat turned the heat up on everyone else in the kitchen, Fisher included. He said his answer will come in the next 45 days-maybe soon, maybe not-but it will be based on the first two of what he believes are the three reasons a candidate runs : personal, professional, and political. Fisher says this isn’t a run for his own gratification, but rather another way to help Governor Strickland and Senator Brown bring good paying jobs back to Ohio.

http://www.ohiodailyblog.com/c…

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Former State Treasurer of Missouri Sarah Steelman is also all but in, for Missouri’s senate race, ensuing, she is expected to cause collateral damage in a primary with Washington’s favorite Blunt.

Two Republican sources close to Steelman say after weeks of laying the groundwork, Steelman is “very, very likely” going to run for outgoing Sen. Kit Bond’s seat.

“She is continuing to meet with people across the state. She’s being encouraged by many supporters to run. She has had some great meetings in D.C. and around the state,” says one source. “Her message is about reform, transparency and accountability in government. That message is relevant now more than ever before.”

http://ky3.blogspot.com/2009/0…

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Tiarht’s (KS-04) R+12 district probably won’t be very competitive in the general election, but that doesn’t make the primary uninteresting!  First into the ring, State Senator Dick Kelsey.  

Kansas Sen. Dick Kelsey, R-Goddard, announced Friday that he will run for the 4th Congressional District seat being vacated by Todd Tiahrt.

Kelsey, the first candidate to officially announce he is seeking the office, made his plans known before about 100 supporters during a news conference at the Wichita Independent Business Association.

http://www.kansas.com/news/sta…

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In Virginia’s Democratic primary for Governor, Former state delegate Brian Moran turned on the offense against McCauliffe in front of Bill Clinton at the Democratic party’s Jefferson-Jackson dinner, trying to turn his financial advantage into a negative.  

At the Democratic Party of Virginia’s annual Jefferson-Jackson dinner  on Saturday, McAuliffe got an earful from former House member Brian Moran, who implied that the onetime DNC chairman is trying to buy the governor’s mansion by tapping his rolodex of national donors.

“We must decide what our party stands for,” Moran told the audience of activists in Richmond. “Will our party be dominated by big money and those who raise it, or will we be the party of the people?”

http://politicalticker.blogs.c…  

A great day for the Ohio Retread Watch:

Mike DeWine, the former Republican senator from Ohio, said that he will be running for statewide office in 2010.

“I intend to run next year, and there are a lot of different possibilities,” DeWine said. “I have not ruled anything out.”

DeWine would not dismiss running against Rob Portman in the Republican Senate primary, though the two are on good terms from serving in Congress together.

“Rob and I are friends, and we’ve talked over the last few months about a lot of things,” DeWine said. “I’ve got to go through my own assessment.”

DeWine also is considering a campaign for governor against Democrat Ted Strickland — or for the state’s attorney general position.

As we saw earlier today, ex-Rep. Steve Chabot also wants his old seat back. DeWine, it seems, is less choosy, and with good reason – his gubernatorial numbers are not inspiring. But no matter what he decides, I welcome another run from him!

Quinnipiac (1/29-2/2, registered voters):

Lee Fisher (D): 42

Rob Portman (R): 27

Jennifer Brunner (D): 38

Rob Portman (R): 28

Lee Fisher (D): 41

Mary Taylor (R): 27

Jennifer Brunner (D): 38

Mary Taylor (R): 26

(MoE: ±2.9%)

Rob Portman (R): 33

Mary Taylor (R): 11

(MoE: ±5.1%)

Lee Fisher (D): 18

Jennifer Brunner (D): 16

Tim Ryan (D): 14

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Quinnipiac polls a whole bunch of different permutations on the Ohio Senate race, including the primary races, and you gotta like what you see here. Lt. Gov Lee Fisher and Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner both lead ex-Rep. and ex-OMB Director Rob Portman by double digits. The only missing element is head-to-heads involving Rep. Tim Ryan, who also seems likely to run (and they do poll him in the primary)… but judging by the similarity between Fisher and Brunner’s numbers, it seems like the candidates are running more as ‘generic D’ and ‘generic R’ right now, and he’d do just as well.

The unknowns are very high even in the general, but they’re catastrophically high in the primary heats, with the majority of the electorate in the “don’t know” camp right now. This is especially the case in the hypothetical GOP primary, where Portman (who has already committed to the race) is tested against the little-known Auditor Mary Taylor. (Taylor hasn’t publicly expressed any interest in the Senate race; discussion of her at this point seems to be limited to online GOP fanboys depressed with the drab Portman and casting about for someone Sarah Palin-esque to give them the twinkles.)

A few weeks ago, PPP tried out Fisher, Brunner, and Ryan against Portman, and Portman won all three of those tests, although not by particularly large margins. So this Q-poll, in and of itself, shouldn’t be taken as a promise of a pickup; this is going to be a hard fought race for the next two years. (H/t Leftist Addiction.)

Public Policy Polling (1/17-18, registered voters):

Jennifer Brunner (D): 34

Rob Portman (R): 42

Undecided: 24

Lee Fisher (D): 39

Rob Portman (R): 41

Undecided: 20

Tim Ryan (D): 34

Rob Portman (R): 40

Undecided: 26

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Portman begins the race with an early edge over the potential Democratic field, but it’s nothing insurmountable. Name recognition may be something of a factor here, but interestingly, Portman registers the highest percentage of ambivalence among voters of the four names tested; a full 49% have no opinion of him, while his favorable/unfavorable score clocks in at 28-23.

By comparison, Fisher’s numbers are 40-32, Ryan’s are 26-27, and Brunner (Ohio’s Secretary of State) has the highest unfavorables of the bunch at 34-36. Undoubtedly, Brunner’s involvement in a plethora of lawsuits during and after the election (most notably surrounding early voting, but also the drawn-out OH-15 saga) drew a good deal of scorn from the Ohio GOP. Perhaps those numbers might settle down some when the ’08 election fades farther away in our rear view mirrors — or perhaps not.

Portman also scores very highly among Republican voters — he draws in a full 80% of Republicans off the bat against Fisher and Brunner (and 74% against Ryan), while the potential Democratic candidates are only drawing between 59% (Brunner) and 68% (Fisher) of Democrats. Still, with the kind of baggage that Portman is carrying, a good campaign should be able to shore up these numbers over the next two years.