Tag: 2000 election

Tipping Point Counties

One of the many interesting features at 538.com, and one that they’ve particularly drilled into the heads of the blogosphere, is the notion of the “tipping point” states. In other words, which states are in the middle of the left-to-right spectrum and the likeliest to be the ones that put a presidential candidate over the required 270 electoral votes to win (and thus get the most emphasis)?

This left me wondering: is this something that can be applied at the state level to identify which counties are the likeliest to be the decisive ones in terms of which way the state falls? Of course, the method is a little different, because a state is won simply by reaching a plurality of votes, rather than through the complicated machinery of the Electoral College. So while a Democratic campaign might particularly emphasize the swing voters clustered in a state’s median counties, it would also certainly want to push turnout in strongly-Democratic urban areas and still try to mine as many votes dispersed around conservative rural areas. But in an era of micro-targeting (via cable, internet ads, direct mail, etc.), knowing where the decisive voters are located, and how an entire state pivots around them, seems critical.

Naturally, I don’t have access to up-to-the-minute county-by-county polling data, so what I tried is arranging every county in each state from highest Democratic percentage to lowest Democratic percentage, for both the presidential races in 2004 and 2000, and then finding in which county the 50% mark fell, in terms of total number of votes. As you’ll note, the usual location tends to be an affluent suburban county, home to the stereotypical moderate swing voter. The tipping point tends to be in a slightly Republican-leaning county (even in some bluish states like Minnesota), which reflects, well, that the Republicans won the last two presidential elections, as well as the heavy concentration of Democratic votes in a few urban counties in many states.

I’m restricting my list to the states where there are prominent statewide races this year, as well as a few states where there isn’t a prominent statewide race but that are key to the presidential race (yes, I know this is Swing State Project, but I also know what everyone is fixated on right now, with the realization that the presidential race is going to turn into yet another house-by-house battle in a few key swing states… so if nothing else, this can be a handy scorecard for watching election returns in November). Rather than list every single freakin’ county in each state, I’m listing only counties with more than 100,000 residents (c. 2000). I’m also listing the D and R percentages for each county for each year. The !!! indicates the county where the tipping point falls. (In a few cases, it fell in a small rural county instead, which I’ll mention in the footnotes.)

Let’s start with Colorado, which is on a lot of people’s minds right now. Other states are over the flip…

County 2004 County 2000
Denver 70/29 Denver 62/31
Boulder 66/32 Pueblo 54/42
Pueblo 53/46 Adams 50/44
Adams 51/48 Boulder 50/36
Arapahoe 47/51 Arapahoe 43/51
Larimer !!! 47/52 Jefferson !!! 43/51
Jefferson 47/52 Larimer 39/53
Weld 36/63 Weld 36/58
Douglas 33/67 Douglas 31/65
El Paso 32/67 El Paso 31/64
Mesa 32/67 Mesa 30/63

Florida

County 2004 County 2000
Broward 64/35 Broward 67/31
Leon 61/38 Palm Beach 62/35
Palm Beach 60/39 Leon 60/38
Alachua 56/43 Alachua 55/40
Miami-Dade 53/47 St. Lucie 53/44
St. Lucie 52/48 Volusia 53/45
Volusia 50/49 Miami-Dade 53/46
Orange 50/50 Osceola 51/47
Pinellas 50/50 Pinellas 50/46
Osceola 47/52 Orange 50/48
Hillsborough !!! 46/53 Hernando 50/47
Hernando 46/53 Pasco !!! 49/48
Sarasota 45/54 Hillsborough 47/50
Pasco 44/54 Sarasota 45/52
Charlotte 43/56 Manatee 45/53
Manatee 43/57 Polk 45/53
Citrus 42/57 Citrus 45/52
Martin 42/57 Brevard 45/53
Duval 42/58 Charlotte 44/53
Brevard 42/58 Marion 43/54
Seminole 41/58 Seminole 43/55
Marion 41/58 Martin 43/55
Polk 41/59 Lake 41/56
Indian River 39/60 Duval 41/57
Lee 39/60 Lee 40/58
Lake 39/61 Indian River 40/58
Collier 34/65 Escambia 35/63
Escambia 34/65 Collier 32/66
St. John’s 31/69 St. John’s 32/65
Bay 28/71 Bay 32/66
Clay 23/76 Clay 25/73
Santa Rosa 22/77 Santa Rosa 25/72
Okaloosa 22/78 Okaloosa 24/74

Georgia

County 2004 County 2000
DeKalb 73/27 DeKalb 70/27
Clayton 70/29 Clayton 65/33
Fulton 59/40 Fulton 58/40
Clarke 58/40 Richmond 55/44
Richmond 57/43 Muscogee 54/45
Muscogee 51/48 Clarke 52/41
Bibb 51/49 Bibb 50/48
Chatham 50/50 Chatham 49/49
Cobb !!! 37/62 Cobb !!! 37/60
Gwinnett 33/66 Houston 36/63
Houston 33/66 Gwinnett 32/64
Henry 33/67 Henry 31/66
Hall 21/78 Hall 27/70
Cherokee 20/79 Cherokee 23/73

Indiana

County 2004 County 2000
Lake 61/38 Lake 62/36
Monroe 53/45 La Porte 50/48
Marion 51/49 St. Joseph 49/49
La Porte 50/49 Vigo 48/50
St. Joseph 48/51 Marion 48/49
Vigo 46/53 Delaware 47/50
Porter 45/54 Porter 45/52
Delaware 43/56 Madison 45/54
Vanderburgh 41/59 Vanderburgh 44/54
Madison 40/59 Monroe 44/48
Tippecanoe 40/59 Tippecanoe * 39/56
Allen * 36/63 Allen 36/62
Elkhart 29/70 Elkhart 30/67
Hendricks 26/73 Johnson 28/70
Johnson 26/74 Hendricks 27/71
Hamilton 25/74 Hamilton 24/74

Maine

County 2004 County 2000
Cumberland 58/40 Androscoggin 53/41
Androscoggin 54/44 Kennebec 53/41
York !!! 53/45 Cumberland 52/41
Kennebec 53/45 York !!! 49/45
Penobscot 49/49 Penobscot 45/49

Michigan

County 2004 County 2000
Wayne 69/30 Wayne 69/29
Washtenaw 63/35 Genesee 63/35
Genesee 60/39 Washtenaw 60/36
Ingham 58/41 Ingham 57/39
Muskegon 55/44 Bay 55/43
Bay 54/45 Muskegon 55/43
Saginaw 53/46 Saginaw 54/44
Kalamazoo 51/48 Monroe 51/47
Oakland !!! 50/49 Macomb 50/48
Macomb 49/50 Calhoun 50/48
Monroe 49/51 Oakland !!! 49/48
Calhoun 48/51 Kalamazoo 48/48
Eaton 46/53 St. Clair 48/49
St. Clair 45/54 Eaton 47/50
Berrien 44/55 Jackson 45/52
Jackson 43/56 Berrien 43/55
Kent 40/59 Livingston 38/59
Livingston 36/63 Kent 38/59
Allegan 36/63 Allegan 35/63
Ottawa 28/72 Ottawa 27/71

Minnesota

County 2004 County 2000
St. Louis 65/34 St. Louis 60/33
Ramsey 63/36 Ramsey 57/36
Hennepin 59/39 Hennepin 54/39
Dakota !!! 48/50 Dakota !!! 47/48
Washington 48/51 Anoka 47/48
Olmsted 47/52 Washington 46/48
Anoka 46/53 Olmsted 43/52
Stearns 43/55 Stearns 40/52

Mississippi

County 2004 County 2000
Hinds 59/40 Hinds 53/43
Harrison !!! 36/63 Harrison * 36/61
Jackson 30/69 Jackson 31/67
De Soto 27/72 De Soto 27/71
Rankin 20/79 Rankin 19/80

Missouri

County 2004 County 2000
St. Louis city 80/19 St. Louis city 77/20
Jackson 58/41 Jackson 59/38
St. Louis 54/45 St. Louis 51/46
Boone 50/50 Jefferson 50/48
Jefferson 49/50 Clay 49/49
Clay !!! 46/53 Boone !!! 48/48
St. Charles 41/59 St. Charles 42/56
Greene 37/62 Greene 40/57
Jasper 29/71 Jasper 31/66

New Hampshire

County 2004 County 2000
Strafford 56/44 Strafford 51/43
Merrimack 52/47 Merrimack 48/47
Hillsborough !!! 48/51 Hillsborough !!! 47/49
Rockingham 47/52 Rockingham 46/49

New Mexico

County 2004 County 2000
Santa Fe 71/28 Santa Fe 65/28
Bernalillo !!! 51/47 Dona Ana 51/46
Dona Ana 51/48 Bernalillo !!! 49/47
San Juan 33/66 San Juan 35/62

North Carolina

County 2004 County 2000
Durham 68/32 Durham 64/36
Orange 67/32 Orange 63/36
Robeson 53/47 Robeson 60/39
Mecklenburg 52/48 Cumberland 50/49
Guilford 50/49 Guilford 49/51
Buncombe 49/50 Mecklenburg 48/51
Wake 49/51 Wake 46/53
Cumberland 48/52 Pitt 46/54
Pitt 46/53 Buncombe * 45/54
Forsyth !!! 46/54 New Hanover 44/55
New Hanover 44/56 Forsyth 43/56
Alamance 38/61 Wayne 38/61
Wayne 38/62 Alamance 37/62
Cabarrus 33/67 Onslow 34/65
Rowan 32/67 Iredell 34/65
Catawba 32/67 Rowan 34/66
Gaston 32/68 Johnston 33/66
Johnston 32/68 Cabarrus 33/66
Iredell 32/68 Gaston 33/67
Onslow 30/69 Catawba 32/67
Union 29/70 Union 32/68
Davidson 29/71 Davidson 31/68
Randolph 25/74 Randolph 27/73

Ohio

County 2004 County 2000
Cuyahoga 67/33 Cuyahoga 63/33
Mahoning 63/37 Mahoning 61/35
Trumbull 62/38 Trumbull 60/36
Lucas 60/40 Lucas 58/39
Summit 57/43 Lorain 53/43
Lorain 56/43 Summit 53/43
Franklin 54/45 Ashtabula 50/45
Portage 53/46 Portage 50/45
Ashtabula 53/46 Montgomery 50/48
Montgomery 51/49 Franklin 49/48
Stark !!! 51/49 Clark 49/48
Clark 49/51 Stark !!! 47/49
Lake 48/51 Columbiana 46/49
Columbiana 47/52 Lake 45/50
Hamilton 47/53 Wood 43/53
Wood 46/53 Hamilton 43/54
Medina 43/57 Medina 40/56
Richland 40/60 Richland 39/57
Greene 39/61 Greene 38/58
Wayne 38/61 Licking 37/60
Licking 38/62 Fairfield 35/62
Fairfield 37/63 Wayne 35/61
Butler 34/66 Butler 34/63
Delaware 34/66 Allen 32/65
Allen 33/66 Delaware 31/66
Clermont 29/71 Clermont 30/67
Warren 28/72 Warren 28/70

Oregon

County 2004 County 2000
Multnomah 72/27 Multnomah 64/28
Lane 58/40 Lane 52/40
Washington 52/46 Washington 49/46
Clackamas !!! 49/50 Clackamas !!! 47/48
Marion 44/54 Marion 44/51
Jackson 43/55 Jackson 39/54
Deschutes 42/56 Deschutes 38/56
Linn 38/60 Linn 38/57
Douglas 33/66 Douglas 30/64

Pennsylvania

County 2004 County 2000
Philadelphia 80/19 Philadelphia 80/18
Allegheny 57/42 Lackawanna 60/36
Delaware 57/42 Fayette 57/40
Lackawanna 56/42 Allegheny 57/40
Montgomery 56/44 Delaware 54/43
Erie 54/46 Montgomery 54/44
Fayette 53/46 Washington 53/44
Luzerne 51/48 Erie 53/44
Bucks 51/48 Beaver 53/44
Beaver 51/48 Luzerne 52/44
Lehigh !!! 51/48 Northampton 51/45
Washington 50/50 Bucks !!! 50/46
Northampton 50/49 Cambria 50/46
Monroe 50/50 Mercer 49/47
Cambria 49/51 Lehigh 49/48
Mercer 48/51 Monroe 47/50
Centre 48/52 Westmoreland 46/52
Chester 48/52 Schuylkill 45/51
Berks 46/53 Dauphin 44/53
Dauphin 46/54 Berks 44/53
Schuylkill 45/55 Chester 44/53
Westmoreland 44/56 Centre 43/53
Cumberland 36/64 York 36/61
York 36/64 Butler 35/62
Butler 35/64 Cumberland 35/62
Lancaster 34/66 Lebanon 35/62
Blair 33/66 Blair 35/63
Lebanon 33/67 Lycoming 34/63
Lycoming 31/68 Lancaster 31/66
Franklin 28/71 Franklin 30/67

Virginia

County 2004 County 2000
Richmond city 70/29 Richmond city 65/31
Arlington 68/31 Portsmouth city 63/36
Alexandria city 67/32 Norfolk city 62/35
Norfolk cit 62/37 Alexandria city 61/34
Portsmouth city 61/38 Arlington 60/34
Hampton city 57/42 Hampton city 57/41
Fairfax 53/46 Newport News city 51/47
Newport News city 52/47 Fairfax 47/49
Prince William 46/53 Chesapeake city 45/53
Henrico 46/54 Prince William 45/53
Loudoun * 44/56 Henrico * 43/55
Chesapeake city 42/57 Virginia Beach city 42/56
Virginia Beach city 40/59 Loudoun 41/56
Chesterfield 37/63 Chesterfield 35/63

Washington

County 2004 County 2000
King 65/34 King 60/34
Thurston 56/43 Thurston 52/41
Whatcom 53/45 Snohomish 52/44
Snohomish !!! 53/46 Pierce !!! 51/44
Kitsap 51/47 Kitsap 49/45
Pierce 50/48 Whatcom 46/46
Skagit 48/50 Clark 46/50
Clark 47/52 Skagit 45/49
Spokane 43/55 Spokane 43/52
Yakima 39/60 Yakima 38/59
Benton 32/66 Benton 33/64

The 2004 tipping point in Indiana is Fayette County; Allen is the closest large county.

The 2000 tipping point in Indiana is Wayne County; Tippecanoe is the closest large county.

The 2000 tipping point in Mississippi is Scott County; Harrison is the closest large county.

The 2000 tipping point in North Carolina is Duplin County; Buncombe is the closest large county.

The 2004 tipping point in Virginia is Nottoway County; Loudoun is the closest large county.

The 2000 tipping point in Virginia is Dinwiddie County; Henrico is the closest large county.

(I know that, short of looking at a map, it’s not always readily apparent what cities are in a county or where the county is, so if you have any geographic questions, feel free to ask in the comments.)

Districts That Swung the Most From 2000 to 2004

I stumbled on this topic when I was thinking of posting in the AL-05 diary that this was one of the districts that had swung the hardest to the right from 2000 to 2004, as measured by Gore % vs. Kerry %. That left me wondering if that was really the case, though, and I did some quick database manipulation. In fact, while Kerry did suffer an embarrassing drop in this district (4.3% lower than Gore, from 43.8% in 2000 to 39.5% in 2004), it was only the 35th worst drop for the Dems. Many of the ones that were worse really surprised me, and since this is a good place for discussing minutiae like this, I thought a diary on the topic might be a good conversation-starter. (PVI, as most of us here know, is the best shorthand for a district’s lean, but it averages out the results from 2000 and 2004 and one weakness it has it that it doesn’t indicate the direction the votes moved between 2000 and 2004.)

Biggest drops:

Rank District % change PVI
1 NY-09 11.2% D+14
2 TN-06 9.5% R+4
3 AL-04 9.4% R+16
4 NY-13 7.9% D+1
5 CA-47 7.7% D+5
6 TN-04 7.5% R+3
7 FL-19 6.5% D+21
8 TN-07 6.5% R+12
9 NJ-04 6.5% R+1
10 TN-01 6.1% R+14
11 OK-02 5.9% R+5
12 TX-15 5.7% R+1
13 CA-43 5.6% D+13
14 OK-03 5.5% R+18
15 AL-03 5.5% R+4
16 OK-04 5.2% R+13
17 TX-27 5.2% R+1
18 NY-03 5.1% D+2
19 FL-20 5.1% D+18
20 NJ-02 5.1% D+4

I see four different trends at work here… none of which indicate a potentially damaging long-term trends in any of these areas.

1) 9-11 districts, for want of a better word. These are white ethnic districts in the New York metro area (and where retirees from these districts are found, i.e. the Jersey Shore and Broward County, Florida) where the impacts of 9-11 were felt the most, both actually and in terms of perception, and there was a rally-around-the-President effect (whether it was out of fear or jingoism is unclear, but it’s not likely to be as much of a factor next time).

2) Tennessee, where Gore benefited (somewhat) from favorite son status and Kerry necessarily fell off.

3) Predominantly white districts in Oklahoma and Alabama, two states that the Kerry campaign essentially wrote off and where highbrow Yankees are particularly unlikely to play well. Not so much of a problem if we have a presidential candidate running a 50-state strategy this time.

4) Certain heavily Latino districts in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley and southern California suburbs, where apparently Bush’s Latino outreach efforts paid off some dividends. These districts already lean a bit more conservative than the more urban heavily Latino districts, and at any rate, with the 2006 election as an indicator, the GOP’s new tactics on immigration are likely to wipe out these gains and then some.

Biggest gains:

Rank District % change PVI
1 VT-AL 8.3% D+8
2 CA-06 8.2% D+21
3 MN-05 8.2% D+21
4 CA-01 8.0% D+10
5 AK-AL 7.9% R+14
6 CA-08 7.5% D+36
7 CO-01 7.5% D+18
8 WA-07 7.4% D+30
9 GA-13 7.4% D+12
10 CA-09 7.4% D+38

I decided to stick with only 10 on this table because these aren’t as surprising: strongly Dem, mostly urban districts where there was a strong Nader effect in 2000 and most left-leaning voters returning to Kerry in 2004. The only exceptions are Alaska (again, explained by the lack of Nader) and GA-13, a suburban district where the African-American percentage of the population has shot up tremendously.