cross-posted from Election Inspection.
The latest Pennsylvania primary polls show a lot of movement towards Obama:
| Pollster | Date | Obama | Clinton |
|---|---|---|---|
| PPP | 3/31-4/1 | 45 | 43 |
| Quinnipiac | 3/24-3/31 | 41 | 50 |
| SUSA | 3/29-3/31 | 41 | 53 |
| Rasmussen | 3/31 | 42 | 47 |
| ARG | 3/26-3/27 | 39 | 51 |
Analysis below the flip.
Compared with the previous result from each pollster, all except ARG show a net gain for Obama:
PPP: Obama net gains 28 from two weeks prior
Quinnipiac: Obama net gains 3 from two weeks prior
SUSA: Obama net gains 7 from three weeks prior
Rasmussen: Obama net gains 5 from one week prior, 8 from 3/12, and 10 from 3/5.
ARG: Obama net loses 1 from 19 days prior.
PPP published an article immediately before they released their PA poll today touting their accuracy in prior contests like Texas and Ohio. Looks to me like they’re trying to protect their reputation in the face of the fact that today’s poll and the prior one in the state are major outliers in opposite directions. In other words, let’s discount PPP for now; and ARG while we’re at it, since ARG polls tend to be way off until the final day of the contest. That leaves a spead of 5, 9, and 12, which is right in line with my analysis from Monday suggesting that as things stand today, Clinton would win Pennsylvania by 5-15 points. However, the trending suggests that the race continues to tighten, and if this continues, Clinton will win Pennsylvania by single digits, if at all.
And as I’ve said previously, a single digit win in Pennsylvania will make any suggestion that she could win this nomination sound mathematically ridiculous instead of merely far-fetched. Clinton’s campaign should be in full panic mode by this point, because this is their last chance and it is slipping away.
Election Inspection’s current delegate breakdown: Clinton 55, Obama 48
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