Tag: Gordon Smith

Enough has happened in the past few weeks for me to do one of my occasional Oregon political news roundups.  Specifically, the following four stories will be covered:

1. Gordon Smith the Elitist-Smith is revealed to be at least the 10th richest member of Congress.

2. One expensive movie ticket-The Governator no shows for a Smith fundraiser, choosing to appear via satellite.  

3. Republican Wingard gets hit for child abuse conviction in new ad.

4. Democrats continue rise in voter registration.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Gordon Smith the Elitist:

According to Roll Call’s list of the 50 Richest Members of Congress, Oregon’s own Gordon Smith comes in at #10, with an estimated worth of $28.65M.

Yet that is not the end of the story, to quote Roll Call:

If you take financial disclosure forms seriously (never a good idea), you might be led to believe that Smith’s net worth tripled last year. His 2006 financial disclosure form disclosed net assets of about $8.5 million.

But Smith’s worth is largely derived from Smith Food Sales, a purveyor of frozen vegetables. In 2006 he listed that asset as being worth $5 million to $25 million. In 2007, the value has jumped to the next category, $25 million to $50 million, so even if the value of the asset rose from just under to just more than $25 million, the effect on the disclosure form is to add $20 million to Smith’s minimum net worth. Since Smith doesn’t have to report the assets of the corporation, his actual net worth may be far above what is reported on the Congressional form.

Add to that the recent news that Gordon Smith’s house is worth more than the rest of the OR delegation combined ($3.5M) and that he is the only member of the delegation to not actually live in DC, and one wonders who Gordon Smith really thinks he’s fooling when he says he is not elitist.

Source for the houses info: Congressional Cribs (OR).

One Expensive Movie Ticket

Source: Smith fundraiser turns into pricey movie ticket

Gordon Smith had long planned to hold a fundraiser with the Governator Ahnold (R-CA) and had secured gifts of $1k per person to see the Governator speak.  However, due to the budget crisis in CA, the Governator did not come, instead speaking via satellite link to the event.  There is now some word that he will come up later for Gordon Smith, but this still begs the question of how deep Smith must be reaching if he needs to rely basically solely on a former action star to fundraise.

Wingard gets hit on child abuse conviction:

Source: Democratic ad hits Wingard on assault

A few months back, it was reported that Matt Wingard had been convicted several years back for misdemeanor assault after hitting his then 7-year old son with a screwdriver.  At the time, the OR Repubs tried to get Wingard, who is running for the state house from Wilsonville, a slightly red seat but certainly winnable, to drop out but were unsuccessful.  Now the Democrats have released a mailer attacking Wingard for his conviction, an attack that Democratic candidate Jessica Adamson stands behind, stating “This is a community of Saturday morning football games and family dinners and game nights. I don’t believe that Mr. Wingard’s actions reflect the community that I know.”  It remains to be seen what impact this will have but I have to say I like the strategy.

Oregon Democrats Continue Voter Registration Rise:

In just released voter registration figures covering registration through the end of August (http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/votreg/aug08.pdf) it was revealed that once again the Democrats have increased their lead in the state.  Statewide, there are now 894k Democrats and 677k Republicans, with the rest of Oregon’s slightly more than 2M registered voters independents or third party members.  For comparison, in 2006, there were 763k Democrats and 701k Republicans.  Although the increase has certainly been seen most in heavily Democratic areas, such as Multnomah County, Democrats now hold a voter registration edge, or are within a couple thousand at worst, in more than two thirds of the state’s legislative districts.

Let me know what you think.

Rasmussen (9/15, likely voters, 8/7 in parens):

Jeff Merkley (D): 45 (39)

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 46 (47)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

There’s been a decided shift in momentum in the last few weeks in this race: the Merkley internal poll giving him the lead (and giving Smith a catastrophic 61% disapproval rating), a panicky Smith dropping his ‘nice guy’ image to run sleazy attack ads, and Willamette Week pounding away at Smith on the hiring-illegal-immigrants front (with new research released today, interviewing five people who were illegals at the time of employment for the Prince of Peas).

Well, we have some confirmation from a public pollster: Rasmussen, who last month seemed to show a race slipping away from Merkley, shows a huge bounce-back for Merkley, now down just by 1. Significantly, Merkley leads 46-42 among unaffiliated voters.

We at SSP had been suspecting that where there was smoke, there was fire; with confirmation from a public pollster, we feel confident in upgrading this race to “Tossup.”

Over the weekend, skywaker9 diaried about Gordon Smith’s outrageous new ads accusing Jeff Merkley of being soft on sex offenders. The ads, of course, are bogus and misleading, and Merkley is hitting back with a pair of his own spots released today:

The first ad features Kristi Gustafson, an Oregon law enforcement officer, defending Merkley against Smith’s “lies and innuendo”. It’s an effective spot.

Gordon Smith is making a dangerous play with his ads, hoping to saddle Merkley with a Willie Horton-type of situation. It’s a kind of nastiness I haven’t seen in an ad since the 2005 Virginia gubernatorial campaign, when Tim Kaine was pilloried in attack ads for serving as a defense attorney to clients charged with homicide. We all know how that one turned out for Jerry Kilgore.

I sort of wonder if this could be Gordon Smith’s Nancy Johnson moment — an example of an incumbent who everyone thought was “nice” suffering from a heavy backlash after releasing over-the-top attack ads against their political opponents.

It’s a bit too early to tell, but Gordo is skating on some thin ice.

It’s 49-37 Smith in SUSA’s first poll of the Oregon Senate race.  

Gordon Smith leads among women 48-39, peels off 28% of Democrats, and wins 18-34 year-olds, 53-29%.  Sample is 100% white, and breaks down 41D-37R-21R.  Smith even leads in the Portland region.

This was taken just before Smith’s latest attack ads, and there are serious questions about Merkely’s financial ability to fight back.  So is this another screwy SUSA poll, or can this one be written off?

Yesterday I wrote about how Gordon Smith and the Oregon Republican party had released a web ad and website smearing Jeff Merkley’s record.  Today, the DSCC fired back with a brilliant ad nailing Gordon Smith on the war on Iraq.  See more below the jump…

Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

First things, first, if you’ll recall, Gordon Smith and the NRSC released the following web ad a few days back criticizing Merkley’s appearance in some issue ads funded by the Democratic Party of Oregon:

Today the DSCC fires back with an ad (not a web ad, an actual TV ad) criticizing Smith, and particularly his insistence that he is bipartisan and supports tax cuts for real families:

Let me know what you think and if you want to help Jeff take back this country by taking out one of Dubya’s most loyal friends, donate at: http://www.jeffmerkley.com/

Proof that Jeff Merkley is gaining fast in his quest to be the next Senator from the great state of Oregon increases by the day.  In the latest, the Oregon GOP goes after Merkley’s supposed campaign finance violations and then puts up a pathetic website attempting to smear Merkley’s tax record.  More below the jump.

Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

The first item today is an ad put out by the NRSC opposing Jeff Merkley’s appearance in some issue ads sponsored by the OR D’s:

The ad makes referrence of a website (http://www.musttaxmerkley.com/) which supposedly proves Merkley has a pro-tax increase record.  Some facts:

1. The newest article on this page is nearly four months old.  Oh and as I was writing this, their site went down…

2. If you go to the “Jeff Merkley’s Record” page, they give two examples of how Merkley supposedly supports higher taxes and bad budget policies  The second is his vote for a renovation of the State Capitol, which was supported by both parties.  Trust me when I say that the pipes were in bad enough condition that the water that came out of them was brown, not to mention other problems the building had.

Enjoy the smell of fear folks, they’re reeking of it.  

Rasmussen (7/15, likely voters) (6/11 in parentheses):

Jeff Merkley (D): 43 (38)

Gordon Smith (R-inc.): 41 (47)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

I was not expecting this, at least not so soon, but now we have a public poll that shows Jeff Merkley with a very small lead over Gordon Smith in the Oregon Senate race. (Rasmussen also now gives alternate results with ‘leaners’ pushed: if so, the race is tied at 46/46.)

Smith’s favorability numbers have also dropped since the last poll. Last time, 58% of voters viewed him either very or somewhat favorably; this month it’s 53%. Coupled with a re-elect number well below 50%, and with only a 3% edge among men, that all spells trouble for Gordo. Maybe all the lashing himself to the mast of the Good Ship Obama isn’t helping him much.

The following is a review of Oregon’s primary and a preview of Oregon’s fall elections now that the primary results (with the exception of Ballot Measure 53) are certified.  Crossposted from Daily Kos (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/16/121742/983/269/536725).

The Oregon Primary is nearly all in the books, so I thought it was appropriate to offer a final review of it and preview the fall campaigns.  I posted a more detailed preview a few weeks ago here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/5/12544/25866/676/530200.

The major source for my numbers is the SOS’s election results page: https://secure.sos.state.or.us/eim/goToElectionResults.do?actionId=viewLoad&mode=view.

The Oregon Primary, by the numbers:

Total Number of Votes Cast: 1,170,553, or 58.04%

Turnout in the 2006 Primary: 38.58%.

Democratic Turnout: 75.66% (a new record for an Oregon primary, smashing the previous record of 71.3% set during the 1968 Presidential Primary).

Number of Votes for Barack Obama: 375,000.

Number of Votes for Hillary Clinton: 260,000

Number of Votes for John McSame: 286,000.

Biggest margin of victory in any county for Hillary: 800 votes (Coos County).

Biggest margin of victory in any county for Obama: 53,000 votes (Multnomah County).

Jeff Merkley’s Margin of Victory over Steve Novick: 16,000.

Number of undervotes in the US Senate Primary: 90,000, or well above Merkley’s margin of victory.  By my estimate, Novick would have netted 3-5,000 or so more votes in Multnomah County alone had everyone cast ballots, assuming his margin of 52-40% had held.

Approximate cost per vote for Mike Erickson in the CD 5 Republican Primary (through the end of April only so the number is going to be higher than this): $23.

Approximate cost per vote for Kurt Schrader in the CD 5 Democratic Primary (through the end of April only): $1.70.

Closest Race: Ballot Measure 53, the “original certification” puts the margin at 450 votes out of 978,000 cast, or .06%.  It is currently being recounted and results will be known by 6/24.

Undervotes in this race: 192,000, or more than 425 times the margin.

Enough fun with numbers, now for a quickie Oregon General Election Preview:

Race-Rating Key:

Tossup-Less than 3% margin.

Lean-3 to 10% margin.

Likely-11 to 20% margin.

Safe-Over 20% margin.

When discussing a race I list the incumbent, or failing that the incumbent party, first.  

Candidates are indicated by the following symbols:

Inc-Incumbent.

Int-Interim Incumbent, someone who was appointed to fill out a term.  Oregon law allows the political party that controls a seat to basically appoint a replacement in case of resignation and so it is not uncommon for state legislators to resign so their successor can run as an incumbent.  Appointments are valid until the start of the next legislative session in a year following a general election.  Therefore, those appointees who have two years left on their term following an election must face a special election for those two years.   For example, Brad Avakian (D) resigned his State Senate seat and was replaced by Suzanne Bonamici (also D).  Since Avakian was not up for re-election until 2010, Bonamici will face a special election for the last two years of Avakian’s term this fall.

Statewide Races:

US President

Candidates: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D).

Summary: The latest polling shows Obama with a solid lead in the 10% range.  Expect him to win by this much or more.  Barr might hurt McCain here because many of the urban Rs are libertarians who aren’t particularly fond of him.

Outlook: Leans to Likely Obama.

US Senate

Candidates: Sen. Gordon Smith (R-inc) vs. Speaker of the OR House Jeff Merkley (D).

Summary: The latest poll shows Smith with a 9% lead but under 50%.  Merkley will definitely benefit from Obama’s strength here.  For now, his biggest weakness is most certainly his cash disadvantage but its nothing he can’t overcome.

Outlook: Leans Smith.

Labor Commissioner (Nonpartisan) (2-year interim):

Brad Avakian (int) is facing only token opposition, namely this nut, who likes to put curses on his opponents: http://www.getenergized.com/vote.html.  

Outlook: Safe Avakian.

Attorney General:

John Kroger (D) is unopposed and even won the OR R’s nomination by write-in.

State Treasurer:

Candidates: Ben Westlund (D) vs. Allen Alley (R).

Summary: Against someone else Alley might have a chance, but Westlund has friends on both sides of the aisle.  This one is going to be a rout.

Outlook: Likely to Safe Westlund.

Secretary of State

Candidates: Kate Brown (D) vs. Rick Dancer (R).

Summary: Brown is going to kick Dancer’s ass, period.  Dancer has no real base to speak of and has received only a lukewarm reception from Oregon Rs.  This is an important race this year, obviously, since the next SOS will help with redistricting.

Outlook: Likely to Safe Brown.

Congressional Races:

District 1 (Wu-D)-Likely to Safe Wu.

District 2 (Walden-R)-Likely to Safe Walden.

District 3 (Blumenauer-D)-Safe Blumenauer.

District 4 (DeFazio-D) is unopposed.

District 5

Candidates: State Sen. Kurt Schrader (D) vs. Businessman (and hypocrite) Mike Erickson (R).

Summary: Schrader is a well known and respected legislator in this district and his wife is the current chair of the Clackamas County Commission.  Erickson, on the other hand, lost the endorsements of both Oregon Right to Life and the Oregon Farm Bureau, two groups without which no Republican can really hope to win.  I think he has enough cash to keep this race within 10% but not to win.

Outlook: Leans Schrader.

Oregon Legislature:

Oregon Senate:

In brief:

Current Composition: 18 D, 11 R, 1 I.

Projected Composition: 18 D, 12 R (1 D to R (Westlund), 1 I to D (Gordly).

Races by Rating:

Safe: 7D, 5R.

Lean/Likely Hold: 2R, 1D.

Lean Takeover: 1D (Ben Westlund’s Seat in Central Oregon looks likely to flip to the Rs.  Put it this way, if they can’t win that seat, the Oregon Rs are really really in horrible shape.

Oregon House:

In brief:

Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.

Projected Composition: 32 D, 23 R, 5 Tossups (all Rs) and it could be a lot worse for the Rs.

Races by Rating:

Safe/Likely: 25D, 10R.

Lean Hold: 6D, 13R.

Tossup Districts: 5 (all Rs, specifically: Berger (R-inc, Independence/Monmouth), Wingard (R-open, Wilsonville), Bruun (R-inc, West Linn, Kennemmer (R-open, Canby) and Lindland (R-open, Corbett).

Lean Takeover: 1R (Minnis’s old seat, now as an open seat, should flip to the Ds).

Let me know what you think.

{Originally posted at Senate Guru.}

As I noted in my wrap-up of the OR-Sen Democratic primary, Speaker Jeff Merkley and the Democrats have the grassroots, the issues, and the momentum.  All Republican Gordon Smith has going for him is a campaign bankroll just shy of $5 million.

Smith is unquestionably vulnerable.  With enough resources, Merkley will be able to cut through Smith’s spin and deliver the facts of Smith’s record to the voters of Oregon.  But, of course, he’ll need the support of people throughout the grassroots and the netroots.

To that end, I have added Merkley to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page and am announcing the “Twenty Twenties for Jeff Merkley” effort.  Basically, I’m pleading with twenty of you to contribute at least twenty dollars via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page toward helping Jeff Merkley oust Gordon Smith.  Can twenty of you spare twenty bucks to bounce a bum like Republican Gordon Smith from the hallowed halls of the U.S. Senate?

I think we can get twenty twenties in by the end of Memorial Day weekend.  Please contribute if you can.  Thanks yet again!

Oregon House Speaker and U.S. Senate candidate Jeff Merkley has his first TV spot up on the air!

The ad highlights Jeff’s history as a fighter for Oregon’s progressive values and Jeff’s commitment to going to the U.S. Senate to end the war in Iraq, protect a woman’s right to choose and gain accessible health care for all.

Check it out:

Carla–Netroots Outreach, Jeff Merkley for Oregon