The DSCC’s latest ads in Oregon go for the jugular: Gordon Smith’s support for Social Security privatization (not the kind of “SSP” that we can believe in):
And:
The GOP’s ill-advised schemes to gamble away Social Security are now coming home to roost in a major way. Hope you enjoy it, El Gordo!
The following is my analysis of the latest numbers put out by Survey USA. I am choosing to analyze this both because I want to explain to folks what is going on but also because SUSA does provide crosstabs, making analysis easier. This is NOT just another poll diary.
Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…
The Full SurveyUSA Poll is available at this link: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2587d5be-1ce6-48a3-ad0d-3245a66a7a00.
General Comments:
This poll is fairly believable for the most part. The sampling looks good, although some of the cross-tabs are a little weird (like McBush winning among Hispanics). Still, they slightly oversampled Rs, and Ds to a lesser extent, giving Ds only a 7% reg. edge, when the real edge is around 9%. I’m not quite sure what they consider to be the “Portland Region” but even that makes sense. Some of the other demographic trends also suggest a fairly good sample, such as the percentage of regular churchgoers, which is within the accepted range of 30-35% (OR is the least churchgoing state in the US).
President:
Top Line (August Numbers in Parenthesis):
Obama-52% (48%).
McCain-41% (45%).
Obama strengths: Obama wins among men and women, but of course much more substantially among the later. Obama wins among independents by 14%. Obama also wins among those who say that anything besides terrorism or immigration are the most important issue (which only adds up to 13% of voters). The most notable spread, however, is that, among the 65% of Oregonians who support alternatives to drilling, Obama wins 70-24%.
McCain strengths: Strength is a relative term in this case but McCain is doing okay outside of Portland, only losing by 5% versus 15% inside Portland. He is doing well among those who like Bush, which, and I am proud of Oregon for this, only includes 24% of voters. There are no Palin approval numbers, so it is hard to tell directly what impact she has had.
What it means: Obama is well positioned to take Oregon fairly easily.
US Senate:
Top Line (August Numbers in Parenthesis):
Merkley-44% (37%)
Smith-42% (49%)
Brownlow (Constitution)-8% (8%).
Merkley strengths: Merkley is currently winning men, according to this poll and tied among women. If he wins men, he wins the election without a doubt. Merkley is also carried by his strength among younger voters, winning by 18% there. He has stopped a lot of the bleeding of Dems to Smith, historically a Smith strength, or has at least grabbed an equal number of Republicans. Finally, among those who do not attend church regularly (42% of Oregonians), Merkley enjoys a 33% lead.
Smith strengths: Smith remains fairly strong with many of the groups that have historically backed his candidacy, moderates, losing only by 7%. He is favored by a substantial margin by voters older than 65, winning by 9%. He is winning outside of Portland, by only by 3%, not a great showing for someone who is from Pendleton. A Smith voter is a McCain voter as well, perhaps not surprising given their shared party ID.
What it means: Smith is in trouble. His approval rating is down to 31% and among independents only 29% approve of him. Merkley has nowhere to go but up, as although his disapproval is a little high (35% versus 30% approval) he is the challenger and is still relatively unknown. If you ask me today, Merkley will more likely than not win this fall.
Let me know what you think.
SurveyUSA for Roll Call & KATU-TV (9/22-23, likely voters, 8/2-4 in parens):
Jeff Merkley (D): 44 (37)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 42 (49)
Dave Brownlow (C): 8 (7)
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ±3.8%)
That’s a sharp drop for Smith, and it confirms all the recent polling we’ve seen here. Interestingly, both candidates have weak approvals: 31-42 for Smith and 30-35 for Merkley. But Merkley leads independents 45-36 and is benefitting from a top-of-the-ticket surge. Obama now beats McCain 52-41. (He led just 48-45 early last month.)
SSP currently rates this race Tossup.
Enough has happened in the past few weeks for me to do one of my occasional Oregon political news roundups. Specifically, the following four stories will be covered:
1. Gordon Smith the Elitist-Smith is revealed to be at least the 10th richest member of Congress.
2. One expensive movie ticket-The Governator no shows for a Smith fundraiser, choosing to appear via satellite.
3. Republican Wingard gets hit for child abuse conviction in new ad.
4. Democrats continue rise in voter registration.
Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…
Gordon Smith the Elitist:
According to Roll Call’s list of the 50 Richest Members of Congress, Oregon’s own Gordon Smith comes in at #10, with an estimated worth of $28.65M.
Yet that is not the end of the story, to quote Roll Call:
If you take financial disclosure forms seriously (never a good idea), you might be led to believe that Smith’s net worth tripled last year. His 2006 financial disclosure form disclosed net assets of about $8.5 million.
But Smith’s worth is largely derived from Smith Food Sales, a purveyor of frozen vegetables. In 2006 he listed that asset as being worth $5 million to $25 million. In 2007, the value has jumped to the next category, $25 million to $50 million, so even if the value of the asset rose from just under to just more than $25 million, the effect on the disclosure form is to add $20 million to Smith’s minimum net worth. Since Smith doesn’t have to report the assets of the corporation, his actual net worth may be far above what is reported on the Congressional form.
Add to that the recent news that Gordon Smith’s house is worth more than the rest of the OR delegation combined ($3.5M) and that he is the only member of the delegation to not actually live in DC, and one wonders who Gordon Smith really thinks he’s fooling when he says he is not elitist.
Source for the houses info: Congressional Cribs (OR).
One Expensive Movie Ticket
Source: Smith fundraiser turns into pricey movie ticket
Gordon Smith had long planned to hold a fundraiser with the Governator Ahnold (R-CA) and had secured gifts of $1k per person to see the Governator speak. However, due to the budget crisis in CA, the Governator did not come, instead speaking via satellite link to the event. There is now some word that he will come up later for Gordon Smith, but this still begs the question of how deep Smith must be reaching if he needs to rely basically solely on a former action star to fundraise.
Wingard gets hit on child abuse conviction:
Source: Democratic ad hits Wingard on assault
A few months back, it was reported that Matt Wingard had been convicted several years back for misdemeanor assault after hitting his then 7-year old son with a screwdriver. At the time, the OR Repubs tried to get Wingard, who is running for the state house from Wilsonville, a slightly red seat but certainly winnable, to drop out but were unsuccessful. Now the Democrats have released a mailer attacking Wingard for his conviction, an attack that Democratic candidate Jessica Adamson stands behind, stating “This is a community of Saturday morning football games and family dinners and game nights. I don’t believe that Mr. Wingard’s actions reflect the community that I know.” It remains to be seen what impact this will have but I have to say I like the strategy.
Oregon Democrats Continue Voter Registration Rise:
In just released voter registration figures covering registration through the end of August (http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/votreg/aug08.pdf) it was revealed that once again the Democrats have increased their lead in the state. Statewide, there are now 894k Democrats and 677k Republicans, with the rest of Oregon’s slightly more than 2M registered voters independents or third party members. For comparison, in 2006, there were 763k Democrats and 701k Republicans. Although the increase has certainly been seen most in heavily Democratic areas, such as Multnomah County, Democrats now hold a voter registration edge, or are within a couple thousand at worst, in more than two thirds of the state’s legislative districts.
Let me know what you think.
The Portland-based Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall (9/11-14, registered voters):
Jeff Merkley (D): 39
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 42
Dave Brownlow (C): 4
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Here is the money shot:
More than half of Oregon voters viewed Smith favorably as recently as a year ago, but now that’s down to one-third of the voters, less than those who view him unfavorably. Only 53 percent of Republicans view him favorably – lower than President Bush’s 65 percent approval rating among Oregon Republicans.
A Rasmussen poll released yesterday gave Smith a 1-point lead, and a Merkley internal poll from last week showed the incumbent trailing by three points.
Things are just not looking up for El Gordo.
SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.
UPDATE by Crisitunity: I didn’t immediately grasp the magnitude when seeing “one-third” written out, so remember: Smith’s overall favorable rating is 33%. Let that sink in for a while: 33%. (Also worth noting, via the Oregonian‘s story on this poll: the original numbers released for the poll, which didn’t account for pushing leaners, were Smith up by only 1: 37-36.)
If there was any confusion about the pollster, Tim Hibbitts (who’s little known outside Oregon, but is considered the gold standard within the state), this is an independent poll commissioned by the local Fox TV affiliate, not an internal.
Rasmussen (9/15, likely voters, 8/7 in parens):
Jeff Merkley (D): 45 (39)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 46 (47)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
There’s been a decided shift in momentum in the last few weeks in this race: the Merkley internal poll giving him the lead (and giving Smith a catastrophic 61% disapproval rating), a panicky Smith dropping his ‘nice guy’ image to run sleazy attack ads, and Willamette Week pounding away at Smith on the hiring-illegal-immigrants front (with new research released today, interviewing five people who were illegals at the time of employment for the Prince of Peas).
Well, we have some confirmation from a public pollster: Rasmussen, who last month seemed to show a race slipping away from Merkley, shows a huge bounce-back for Merkley, now down just by 1. Significantly, Merkley leads 46-42 among unaffiliated voters.
We at SSP had been suspecting that where there was smoke, there was fire; with confirmation from a public pollster, we feel confident in upgrading this race to “Tossup.”
Over the weekend, skywaker9 diaried about Gordon Smith’s outrageous new ads accusing Jeff Merkley of being soft on sex offenders. The ads, of course, are bogus and misleading, and Merkley is hitting back with a pair of his own spots released today:
The first ad features Kristi Gustafson, an Oregon law enforcement officer, defending Merkley against Smith’s “lies and innuendo”. It’s an effective spot.
Gordon Smith is making a dangerous play with his ads, hoping to saddle Merkley with a Willie Horton-type of situation. It’s a kind of nastiness I haven’t seen in an ad since the 2005 Virginia gubernatorial campaign, when Tim Kaine was pilloried in attack ads for serving as a defense attorney to clients charged with homicide. We all know how that one turned out for Jerry Kilgore.
I sort of wonder if this could be Gordon Smith’s Nancy Johnson moment — an example of an incumbent who everyone thought was “nice” suffering from a heavy backlash after releasing over-the-top attack ads against their political opponents.
It’s a bit too early to tell, but Gordo is skating on some thin ice.
Just a quick post for these two ads below that are absolutely the two slimiest I have seen out of either camp this year.
Quote:
Republican Sen. Gordon Smith has enlisted the victim of a serial rapist to appear in an emotional TV ad accusing his Democratic rival, Jeff Merkley, of failing to crack down on serious sex offenders.
Tiffany Edens, who became well-known in Oregon as she fought convicted rapist Richard Troy Gillmore’s attempt to win parole, charges that Merkley voted in the state Legislature against extending the statute of limitations on rape.
“Jeff Merkley,” Edens says, staring into the camera as the commercial concludes, “you should have voted to protect victims, not rapists.”
Video below the jump…
Damn, this is great news. Benenson Strategy Group for Jeff Merkley (9/7-9, likely voters, August in parens):
Jeff Merkley (D): 43 (38)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 41 (47)
Dave Brownlow (C): 6 (4)
(MoE: ±3.7%)
The full polling memo is below the fold, and do check it out if you like to read about good news. As you can see from Smith’s job approval ratings, he’s in a world of trouble: 70% of undecideds give him a negative job approval rating!
The following is my look at the races in Oregon this fall, from statewide down to state legislative and excluding ballot measures. Unlike my previous updates, I rank each race within its category, rather than by district number.
Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://loadedorygun.net/showDi…
Data Sources:
The Most Recent Voter Registration Data is at: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/votreg/jul08.pdf
Candidate information comes from ORESTAR: https://secure.sos.state.or.us/eim/jsp/CEMainPage.jsp?CONTENT_PAGE=cf/CFSearchPage.jsp
The Statewide Layout:
Total Registered Voters: About 2.05 Million.
Democrats: 42% (+210k vs. Republicans)
Republicans: 33%.
Nonpartisan/Others: 25%.
Key:
Size of Districts:
State House: Aprox. 55k.
State Senate: Aprox. 110k.
The incumbent is always listed first, or failing that, the incumbent party. All minor parties are listed after the two major parties.
Party Key:
D=Democratic
R=Republican
G=Pacific Green
C=Constitution
L=Libertarian
I=Independent Party (This IS a political party, NOT those running as independents).
N=Unaffiliated, otherwise known as Independents.
P=Peace Party (Ralph Nader’s Oregon party).
Ratings:
Tossup-Margin less than 3%.
Lean-3-10% margin.
Likely-11-20% margin.
Safe-More than 20% margin.
Inc=Incumbent, Int=Interim Incumbent (Someone appointed to fill a seat until the next election due typically to resignation of the previous holder. State law allows the party which held the seat to essentially appoint the replacement. For example, when my State Senator resigned to take a job as the leader of a moderate Business Lobbying group, as a Precinct Committee Person I was entitled to vote for his replacement, which was then ratified by the County Commission).\
Rankings:
Within each category, the highest rated seat is the one considered closest. E.g. the highest rate seat in the tossup category is considered the most of a “tossup”.
Statewide Races:
US President
Candidates: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D), Ralph Nader (P), Cynthia McKinney (G), Bob Barr (L) and Chuck Baldwin (C).
Summary: Its September now and I have yet to see any ads by either campaign. However, the Obama folks are clearly on the ground in this state and McCain has just as clearly made now effort. Count 7 EVs for the Big O, the only question is the margin.
Rating: Leans to Likely Obama.
US Senate
Candidates: Sen. Gordon Smith (R-inc) vs. Speaker of the OR House Jeff Merkley (D) and David Brownlow (C).
Summary: Smith, the DSCC and Merkley are busy slinging mostly negative ads at each other. In fact, only Merkley is really running any positive ads at this point as Smith’s only positive ad is an issue ad on health care sponsored by a major business group. This race has not been polled for a while so I would guess Smith is still sightly ahead. Yet, the dynamics of this state make this race a tossup.
Rating: Tossup.
Secretary of State
Candidates: State Senate Majority Leader Kate Brown (D) vs. Eugene TV Reporter Rick Dancer (R) and Seth Allan Wooley (G).
Summary: Kate Brown is going to absolutely kick the crap out of Dancer. Dancer isn’t even that good of a candidate. On an early appearance on Lars Larson’s talk radio program (he’s a well known conservative for those who don’t know), he seemed unaware of much of what the SOS actually does.
Rating: Likely to Safe Brown.
Attorney General
John Kroger (D) faces only minor party candidates and should cruise.
State Treasurer
Candidates: State Senator Ben Westlund (D) vs. former Kulongoski staffer Allan Alley (R) and Michael Marsh (C)
Summary: It is always so fan to see the Republicans go after Westlund, who used to be one of them until he saw the light. Ben has the support of those on both sides of the aisle and should cruise to an easy victory here. Not to mention Alley’s own problems as well (he ran his company into the ground).
Rating: Likely to Safe Westlund.
Labor Commissioner (Technically a nonpartisan race, 2 year vacancy filling election)
Candidates: Former State Senator Brad Avakian (D-inc.) vs. Founder, Instructor/Provider of a physical and mental fitness program Pavel Goberman (D) and Losing CD1 Candidate Mark Welzycko (D).
Summary: Avakian should have little trouble, given his status as a well known figure in state politics.
Rating: Safe Avakian.
Congressional Races:
Safe Races:
1st-District 2: Walden (R-inc) will have little trouble. If the margin is under 10% that’s a victory for the Ds.
2nd-District 3: Blumenauer (D-inc) is well-loved in this district and for good reason.
3rd-District 4: DeFazio (D-inc) faces only minor party opposition.
Likely Races:
1st-District 1: Wu (D-inc) should have little trouble with Joel Haugen abandoning the Republcian party to run as a member of the Independent Party. The Republicans do not have a candidate.
Lean Races:
1st and only-District 5
Candidates: State Senator Kurt Schrader (D) vs. Businessman and 2006 R Nominee Mike Erickson (R).
Registration Info: 165k Ds, 144k Rs, 88k NP/Others.
Summary: Time was this was considered one of the most contentious house races in the country. Then three things happened. First, the Obama registration boost changed this district from one with a very slight D edge to a somewhat substantial one. Second, Kevin Mannix, who lost the R primary to Erickson, accused Erickson, who had claimed he was pro-life, of paying for a former girlfriend’s abortion. This assertion was proven to be at least somewhat true and the resulting turmoil, along with some other recent discoveries has knocked Erickson well behind the pace. Then, to add to Erickson’s pain came the discovery that he had made a trip to Cuba that appears to be nothing more than a glorified vacation. Schrader just went on the air and Erickson doesn’t appear to be contesting this one too much. Still, he can self-finance enough that this race can’t be upgraded for the Ds.
Rating: Leans Schrader.
Oregon Legislature:
Note: Races within the “Safe” category are not ranked.
Oregon Senate
Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.
Projected Composition: 18D, 12R (1 I to D and one D to R).
Safe Races:
1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).
2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).
5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D).
14 (West Slope/Beaverton)-Hass (D).
18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).
21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D).
22 (Portland)-Carter (D).
23 (NE Portland)-Dingfelder (D), this is technically a net pickup of 1, as Avel Gordly is an I.
25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D).
28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R).
29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R).
30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R).
Lean Races:
1st-27 (Bend)
Candidates: Marien Lundgren (D) vs. Chris Telfer (R).
Registration: R+3k
Summary: This is Ben Westlund’s seat and it would be a huge accomplishment to hold it (he won it twice running as a Republican). That being said, I think its far more possible that a hold could occur now given the blue trend of Deschutes County, the center of this district.
Outlook: Leans Telfer.
2nd-9 (Stayton)
Candidates: Fred Girod (R-int) vs. Bob McDonald (D).
Registration: R+4k.
Summary: The fact that this race is even competitive ought to really scare the Rs. Girod still has the edge though.
Outlook: Leans Girod.
3rd-12 (McMinnville)
Candidates: Brian Boquist (R) vs. Kevin Nortness (D).
Registration: R+2.5k
Summary: The Rs had to scramble to get Boquist to run for this fairly safe seat. This district is certainly changing but I don’t know if it is changing fast enough or if Nortness is a good enough candidate to replace the well-known Boquist.
Outlook: Leans Boquist.
Oregon House:
Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.
Projected Composition: 32 D, 20 R, 8 Tossups (all Rs) and it could be a lot worse for the Rs.
The following seats are rated either safe or likely:
1 (Gold Beach)-Krieger (R).
2 (Myrtle Creek)-Freeman (R).
3 (Grants Pass)-Maurer (R).
4 (Central Point)-Richardson (R).
5 (Ashland)-Buckley (D).
8 (Eugene)-Holvey (D).
10 (Newport)-Cowan (D)-She won this seat by all of 750 votes two years ago and the Rs couldn’t find an opponent for her.
11 (Eugene)-Barnhart (D).
12 (Springfield)-Beyer (D).
13 (Eugene)-Nathanson (D).
14 (Eugene)-Edwards (D).
16 (Corvallis)-Gelser (D).
21 (Salem)-Clem (D).
25 (Keizer)-Thatcher (R).
27 (West Slope, my district!)-Read (D).
28 (Beaverton)-Barker (D).
29 (Hillsboro)-Riley (D).
31 (Clatskanie)-Witt (D).
32 (Cannon Beach)-Boone (D).
33 (Portland)-Greenlick (D).
34 (Beaverton)-Harker (D).
35 (Tigard)-Galizio (D).
36 (Portland)-Nolan (D).
38 (Lake Oswego)-Garrett (D).
40 (Oregon City)-Hunt (D).
41 (Milwaukie)-Tomei (D).
42 (Portland)-Koppel-Bailey (D).
43 (Portland)-Shields (D).
44 (Portland)-Kotek (D).
45 (Portland)-Dembrow (D).
46 (Portland)-Cannon (D).
47 (Portland)-J. Smith (D).
48 (Happy Valley)-Schaufler (D).
53 (Sunriver)-Whisnant (R).
55 (Medford)-Gilliam (R).
56 (Klamath Falls)-Garrard (R).
57 (Heppner)-G. Smith (R).
58 (Pendleton)-Jenson (R).
60 (Ontario)-Benz (R).
Lean Races:
1st-26 (Wilsonville)
Candidates: Matt Wingard (R-int.) vs. Jessica Adamson (D).
Registration: R+2k
Summary: Sometimes the opportunities just fall into your lap. In this case, it turns out that Wingard has been arrested for hitting his children before. The Repubs were panicked enough that incumbent Jerry Krummel resigned so that Wingard could go in as the “incumbent”. Wingard also raised a few eyebrows when he sent out a “legislative update” mere days after taking office, despite the fact that he had not yet voted on a single bill or even attended a committee hearing (h/t to Loaded O for this: Wingard: I Can Haz Spend Ur Money, C?). My heart tells me this will be close but my head tells me that Wingard still has a slight edge.
Outlook: Leans Wingard.
2nd-19 (Salem)
Candidates: Kevin Cameron (R-inc.) vs. Hanten (HD) Day (D).
Registration: R+ less than 1k
Summary: This is a district that should be more competitive than it has in the past. Cameron is vulnerable, especially to a good candidate such as Day. Interesting fact, Cameron runs the cafeteria that operates in the basement of the Oregon Capitol that I ate in probably three times a week during the 2005 session. Let’s just say, his food is much better than he is as a legislator but this is still a historically R-leaning district so he has the edge.
Outlook: Leans Cameron.
3rd-49 (Gresham)
Candidates: John Nelsen (R) vs. Nick Kahl (D).
Registration: D+4.5k
Summary: Two years ago about the only major disappointment I had was Minnis winning this district. Republicans think Kahl is a lightweight because he’s young and relatively inexperienced. They’re wrong, he’s a great candidate, especially with the youth voter empowerment machine known as the Oregon Bus Project (http://busproject.org/) on his side. With Mannix out of the picture, this should be a D pickup, especially with the substantial D edge in this district, if they vote, which they did not in 2006.
Outlook: Leans Kahl.
4th-30 (Hillsboro)
Candidates: David Edwards (D-inc.) vs. Andy Duyck (R).
Registration: D+2k
Summary: The Republicans are all excited that Duyck is going to be their candidate here. The well-known Washington County Commissioner is a solid candidate but this is not the Hillsboro that existed ten or even five years ago. It has taken a solid blue turn and add to that the fact that Edwards survived some of the most vicious smears of any candidate in 2006 and still won to give him a slight edge. This is by far the best Republican chance for a pickup though.
Outlook: Leans Edwards.
5th-23 (Dallas)
Candidates: Jim Thompson (R) vs. Jason Brown (D).
Registration: R+2k
Summary: This open seat battle could be one for the books. That being said, I have to give the edge to Thompson for now because it is an R-leaning district.
Outlook: Leans Thompson.
6th-18 (Silverton)
Candidates: Vic Gilliam (R-int.) vs. Jim Gilbert (D/I).
Registration: R+2.2k
Summary: Jim Gilbert is back for another attempt at an upset here. This is clearly his best chance yet but it won’t be easy. If the Repubs lose this district, it will have been a big night.
Outlook: Leans Gilliam.
7th-59 (The Dalles)
Candidates: John Huffman (R-int.) vs. Mike Ahern (D).
Registration: R+1k
Summary: This was the district that shocked everyone in 2006 as it was almost a D pickup. However, I think Huffman will not be caught unaware as a result, though an upset is possible.
Outlook: Leans Huffman.
8th-15 (Albany)
Candidates: Andy Olson (R-inc.) vs. Dick Olsen (D).
Registration: D and R even
Summary: This district was not on anyone’s list but mine two years ago as potentially competitive. Now with an even registration mix, a chance for an upset is there. Olson, a former State Policeman, has the edge at this point though.
Outlook: Leans Olson.
9th-17 (Scio)
Candidates: Sherrie Sprenger (R-int.) vs. Dale Thackaberry (D).
Registration: R+2k
Summary: Following a bloody and divisive R primary, Thackaberry has a real chance to pull an upset. Add to that the fact that Sprenger has never won a general election here. Still, this is definitely a district with an R tilt, so it’ll be an uphill battle.
Outlook: Leans Sprenger.
10th-9 (Coos Bay)
Candidates: Arnie Roblan (D-inc.) vs. Al Pearn (R).
Registration: D+3k
Summary: This 2006 rematch should not be any different than the last one. Roblan has a good read on this district and should win his easiest battle yet.
Outlook: Leans Roblan.
11th-6 (Medford)
Candidates: Sal Esquivel (R-inc.) vs. Lynn Howe (D).
Registration: R+3k
Summary: No one believed me two years ago when I said this seat would be competitive, and then Esquivel barely eked out a win. My guess is that he won’t be caught napping this time, though.
Outlook: Leans Esquivel.
12th-7 (Roseburg)
Candidates: Bruce Hanna (R-inc) vs. Donald Nordin (D).
Registration: R+1.4k
Summary: This would be my shocker of the year if an upset happened. This district, which has been solidly red for decades, or so it seems, has seen a huge drop in the Republican registration edge. Hanna is also not the greatest politician in the world to begin with but still has an edge here. He also has a huge cash edge as the minority leader from the OR House.
Outlook: Leans Hanna.
13th-22 (Woodburn)
Candidates: Betty Komp (D-inc.) vs. Tom Chereck (R).
Registration: D+2k
Summary: I have to put this as competitive because its Woodburn. However, Komp has really done a great job in this district and should win pretty easily. Interestingly, this district has the lowest number of registered voters in the state, likely due to the large number of undocumented workers living here.
Outlook: Leans Komp.
Tossup Races:
1st-39 (Canby)
Candidates: Bill Kennemer (R) vs. Tony Forsberg (D).
Registration: D+1k
Summary: Kossack Mike Caudle almost pulled off a major upset here in 2006 against the then R-leader Wayne Scott. As an open seat race, this one is too close to call. Both candidates are well known and respected in the community. This one should be very close.
Outlook: Tossup.
2nd-52 (Corbett)
Candidates: Matt Lindland (R) vs. Suzanne VanOrman (D).
Registration: D+2k
Summary: In case you’re wondering, yes Matt Lindland is indeed otherwise known as UFC fighter Matt “The Law” Lindland. This is a dead tossup district this year and should be fun to watch. If I had to guess, I’d give a very slight edge to VanOrman right now.
Outlook: Tossup.
3rd-54 (Bend)
Candidates: Chuck Burley (R-inc.) vs. Judy Stiegler (D).
Registration: D+1.5k
Summary: This district has been trending blue over the past several years thanks largely to an influx of California retirees. This could well be the year Stiegler, who barely lost to Burley in an open seat race here four years ago, breaks through and wins it.
Outlook: Tossup.
4th-50 (Fairview)
Candidates: John Lim (R-inc.) vs. Greg Matthews (D).
Registration: D+3k
Summary: How Lim keeps winning here is a mystery. He should be in for the fight of his life this year with this district clearly trending blue.
Outlook: Tossup.
5th-51 (Clackamas)
Candidates: Linda Flores (R-inc.) vs. Brent Barton (D).
Registration: D+1k
Summary: How I would love to get rid of the racist Flores. Barton has as good a chance as anyone and has huge financial backing. I’m moving this race to tossup for that reason alone.
Outlook: Tossup.
6th-20 (Independence/Monmouth)
Candidates: Vicki Berger (R-inc.) vs. Richard Riggs (D).
Registration: D+1k
Summary: Berger is one of the last remaining liberal Republicans that Oregon used to develop like crazy. She’s in for fight for her life this time due much more to both the state of the Republican party and the slight D registration edge though.
Outlook: Tossup.
7th-37 (West Linn)
Candidates: Scott Bruun (R-inc.) vs. Michele Eberle (D).
Registration: D+ less than 1k.
Summary: Bruun is a well-known figure in this district; his family has run a construction business for over 100 years in the area. Still, this year he will have to fight hard to keep this swing district, which now has a very slight D edge.
Outlook: Tossup.
8th-24 (McMinnville)
Candidates: Jim Wiedner (R) vs. Bernt Hansen (D).
Registration: D and R even.
Summary: This was the seat that Kossack Sal Peralta almost won in 2006. If Hansen can run a good campaign, a win is definitely possible here.
Outlook: Tossup.
Well that’s it, let me know what you think.