Tag: AK-Sen

Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. (9/17-21, likely voters)

Mark Begich (D): 47

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 43

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 47

Don Young (R-inc): 41

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Fairleigh Dickinson has decided to expand its operations from New Jersey… to Alaska? Well, at any rate, it’s at an opportune time, as they join the pack of pollsters seeing tightening races in Alaska in the post-Palin environment (and as the initial shock of Uncle Ted’s indictment fades). In fact, these numbers quite closely resemble those announced by Ivan Moore earlier today (Begich up 48-46, Berkowitz up 49-44).

Ominously for the incumbents, Stevens pulls down only 67% support from Republicans, and Young is supported by only 50% of Republicans. Both races are also built on glaring gender gaps: for instance, Young is up by 10 among men, while Berkowitz is up by 22 among women.

Ivan Moore Research (9/20-22, likely voters, 8/30-9/2 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 48 (49)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 46 (46)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

And here’s the House race:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 49 (54)

Don Young (R-inc): 44 (37)

In other words: these races are far from over. Ivan Moore offers some candid thoughts on why neither Begich or Berkowitz have been able to put their races away:

My thinking is that Begich stayed too long on his cutesy advertising message: He started off in the car wash talking about minimum wage and congressional pay increases, then segued to a charming No Child Left Behind ad featuring his son Jacob. Nice ads, both of them, but the feel is wrong. They don’t set him up as being strong, decisive and dominant, they don’t give him weight and gravitas, they don’t establish him in effective contrast to Stevens, and I think therein lies the fall in numbers. All this while Ted’s growling about how he’s never going to get taken alive.

Begich needs something strong, something that portrays him as someone who can go to DC and kick ass. He needs to rely less on attack ads from the DSCC, which I don’t think are doing him any good, and more on convincing people that he’s got the balls to do this job.

I’m inclined to agree with his note on the DSCC’s ads being counter-productive in this race. Look, you won’t find a bigger booster of the party committees in the blogosphere than us, but the DSCC injecting itself into this contest allows Ted Stevens to frame the race around “enemies of Alaska” trying to “take him down”. This stuff does not play well in Alaska. Just ask the Club For Growth, who learned their lesson the hard way.

And here’s Moore on Berkowitz:

Berkowitz, on the other hand, has a problem. In the last two months, his positive hasn’t moved anywhere and his negative’s gone up nearly ten points. That despite a bunch of pre-primary advertising and a solid win in the primary. He needs to catch fire and he’s not going about it the right way to make it happen. So far, we’ve seen him doing the walking and talking thing on his ads, and having a little love-in on his deck with people hanging on his every word. But for goodness sakes, he’s running against Don Young! Where’s the feistiness, where’s the strength, where’s the toughness, where’s the courage that he had in Juneau to stand up to the powerbrokers and the lobbyists and the corruption? It hasn’t appeared yet, and as a result, the race has narrowed to just five points.

Berkowitz and Begich both have the same problem. Both these races set up perceptually as contests between a couple of intellectual, wishy-washy, weak-kneed, liberal Ds (and that’s not me talking, I’m channeling voter thoughts out there) and a couple of tough, grizzled, possibly corrupt but otherwise experienced old warhorses who know how to get the job done. It’s incumbent on the Ds to show that the perception of them is false, and that they can stand toe-to-toe with Stevens and Young. But time is running out.

Food for thought.

UPDATE: Sarah Palin just declined to endorse Ted Stevens. That can’t help.

Research 2000 for The Great Orange Satan (9/15-17, likely voters, 7/14-16 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 50 (47)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 44 (45)

(MoE: ±4%)

I never underestimate the ability of Republicans to rally around their own — especially in Alaska — but things are still looking good for Begich. How about the House race?

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 53 (51)

Don Young (R-inc): 39 (40)

(MoE: ±4%)

Looking even better. Kos also tested Berkowitz against Sean Parnell, and found that Berko held a 48-43 lead — a sharp contrast with other recent polls that indicated that Parnell would have an edge in a general election match-up.

But still, I want to extend a warm thank you to Sean Parnell and the Club for Growth for gingerly snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. A job well done, you nuts.

Bonus finding: In the Presidential race, McCain has a 55-38 lead over Obama.

Rasmussen (9/9, likely voters, 7/30 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 48 (50)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 46 (37)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Stevens isn’t dead yet — no doubt about it. This is the third poll confirming the incredible closeness of this race (releases by Moore Information and Ivan Moore being the other two).

It’s clear that even with the taint of corruption, Stevens is still gonna be one tough sumbitch to beat. Let’s hope for a conviction.

Bonus finding: With Palin on the ticket, McCain is now utterly wrecking shop in Alaska: 64-33. Not very surprising.

Moore Information (not to be confused with Ivan Moore Research) for the NRSC (registered voters, 9/2-3):

Mark Begich (D): 44

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 46

(MoE: ±4.4%)

The Tarrance Group for the NRSC (likely voters, 9/2-3):

Mark Udall (D): 40

Bob Schaffer (R): 39

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Public Opinion Research for the NRSC (likely voters, 9/2-3):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 46

John Sununu (R-inc): 44

Ken Blevens (L): 5

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Now, I’m not gonna sound the alarm bell over a trio of NRSC polls taken during the GOP’s convo week, but the numbers are worth chewing on. We have already seen Stevens bouncing back in Alaska in another recent poll by Ivan Moore, although that survey showed Begich still leading by 49-46.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 47-45 in Colorado.

Ivan Moore Research polls the Alaska races (8/30-9/2, likely voters, 8/9-12 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 49 (56)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 46 (39)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

I believe we could call this the “Tom Reynolds effect” of political scandals: Stevens’ numbers took a nosedive immediately after his indictment, but now that the shock is wearing off (and after his primary win), the numbers have readjusted back to a tight race. The good news is, Mark Begich is running a brilliant campaign, and is doing everything right. Let’s just hope that Stevens isn’t acquitted before election day.

And now for the House race:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 54 (51)

Don Young (R-inc): 37 (41)

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 38 (42)

Sean Parnell (R): 49 (46)

The numbers tell you everything you need to know about this race: we better hope that Young survives his primary. The crumb-bum currently leads by 151 votes, but guess what? There are over 25,000 uncounted absentee and provisional ballots still outstanding. This primary isn’t nearly over by any stretch of the imagination — and the electoral fate of Ethan Berkowitz could rest in the balance.

Bonus finding: With Palin on the ticket, Alaska is no longer in play, according to the poll. McCain crushes Obama by a 54-35 margin, up from 47-44 in July.

Democrats were sitting pretty in these two races (esp. if Young hangs on in the primary) until McCain picked Gov. Palin.

My short take:

Stevens is done unless he is acquitted.  The outcome of the trial may be important.  I just don’t think there are many coattails in this race.  The House race may be a different story as Palin could pull Young through.

Any thoughts?

A quick round-up of the results from last night’s congressional primaries:

• AK-Sen (D): Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich won the Democratic Senate nomination with an impressive 91% of the vote, with 98% of precincts reporting.
• AK-Sen (R): Ted Stevens survived his primary against banker Dave Cuddy and Floridian beardo Vic Vickers (and several other also-rans), but only with 63.5% of the vote.
• AK-AL (D): Ethan Berkowitz won the Democratic nomination for the state’s at-large House seat by a 59-41 margin over ’06 candidate Diane Benson. Alaskan Independence Party candidate Don Wright received 5600 votes and will appear on the November ballot.
• AK-AL (R): With 98% of precincts reporting and many absentee ballots still outstanding, Don Young has taken a 145-vote lead over Sean Parnell. This race is heading into “contentious recount territory” real fast.
• FL-08 (D & R): Democrat Alan Grayson upset ’06 nominee Charlie Stuart by a 48-28 margin for the right to take on Ric Keller in November. Keller, meanwhile, barely survived his primary challenge from right-wing radio personality Todd Long, with only 53% of the vote to Long’s 47%.
• FL-09 (D): In a bit of an upset for the DCCC, attorney Bill Mitchell beat out wealthy former Plant City Mayor John Dicks by a 38-33 margin for the nomination against frosh GOP Rep. Gus Bilirakis.
• FL-10 (D): Dunedin Mayor Bob Hackworth dispatched ’06 nominee and Ron Paul acolyte Samm Simpson by a 47-29 margin for the chance to take on longtime GOP Rep. Bill Young. Max Linn, a self-funding candidate who ran for Governor in 2006 on the Reform ticket, only earned 24% of the vote.
• FL-15 (D & R): Physician Stephen Blythe crushed pilot Paul Rancatore by a 65-35 margin for the Democratic nomination for this open seat. Republicans nominated state Sen. Bill Posey with 77% of the vote, and he seems poised to run away with this race come November.
• FL-16 (R): Pittsburgh Steelers heir Ed Tom Rooney won a tight three-way race by a 37-35-28 margin for the GOP nod to face off with Democratic Rep. Tim Mahoney.
• FL-24 (D): Former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas crushed ’06 nominee Clint Curtis by a 72-28 margin. Kosmas will face ethically-challenged GOP Rep. Tom Feeney in November.

RESULTS: AP (House) | AP (Senate) | AK Division of Elections | ADN.com

12:06PM: I’m awake and alive. Let’s keep this party going over in thread #3.

9:59AM (David): Wow. With 97.9% of all precincts counting, Don Young has taken a 145-vote lead. Let’s pray it holds.

6:27AM: Alright, one more update. Parnell’s lead has shrunk to 142 votes with 89% reporting.

6:04AM: My friends, I am zonked. We’ll sort this mess out in the morning. Goodnight, all!

5:51AM: With just under 86% of precincts reporting, Young has cut the deficit to just 213 votes. In other news, I can’t believe I’m still awake.

5:17AM: Young has inched back a bit closer, trailing Parnell by 263 votes with 84% counted. They don’t come any closer than this.

4:53AM: Parnell gains back a bit of precious ground — he’s now up by 367 votes with 76% counted.

4:47AM: Well, things seem to have screeched to a stop, so I wouldn’t blame anyone for deciding to hit the hay right now. I’m going to give this a few more minutes, myself.

4:28AM: If there was any doubt, just ask the locals:

Most of the uncounted precincts are in rural Alaska villages, where Young has traditionally enjoyed strong support.

4:20AM: Our back of the cocktail napkin analysis reveals that Young will have to run roughly 0.7% better in the two-candidate vote in the outstanding precincts in order to win. Entirely doable.

4:05AM: By “popular demand”, SSP is calling AK-Sen for Ted Stevens and Mark Begich. Our number crunchers are also coloring a gigantic imaginary red check mark beside Ethan Berkowitz’s name.

3:55AM: Getting closer — Parnell is up by just 230 votes. Come on, you old bastard!

3:51AM ET: Time for a fresh new thread.

Polls in Alaska close at 12am Eastern, and we’ll be following the results for the Alaska Senate primary, the Democratic primary for the state’s at-large House seat, and most importantly, the battle between Sean Parnell and Don Young. Stay tuned.

RESULTS: AP (House) | AP (Senate) | AK Division of Elections | ADN.com

3:52AM: Alright, let’s continue the discussion over in thread no. 2.

3:46AM: Uncle Ted is Uncle Ted:

This is still a Republican state. You think they’re going to go for Obama? You think they’re going to go with Schumer who’s against drilling in the arctic and offshore? […]

But this is a Republican state – don’t forget that. And we know why we’re Republican – because the Democrats have opposed our development every inch of the way.

Senator. How are you going to campaign during the trial?

(didn’t answer)

3:28AM: The gap is closing — Young now trails by only 360 votes…

3:23AM: Mush, mighty huskies, mush! We need to see the Coconut Road precincts before daylight!

3:11AM: A source close to the action in Alaska writes in to note (just as many of you have written about in the comments) that many of the Young-friendly precincts in rural Alaska have yet to report. Parnell doesn’t have anything in the bag yet.

2:58AM: Our quickie back-of-the-napkin analysis reveals that Young would have to perform about 1.51% better among the outstanding votes in order to win.

2:54AM: 58% reporting, and Parnell has increased his lead to about 700 votes.

2:38AM: Parnell is now up by over 400 votes.

2:07AM: Young trails by four. Not percent. Four votes. Jebus; there’s no way I’m going to bed tonight.

1:45AM: 37% in, and things are looking a bit hairier for The Donald, with Parnell ahead by 300 votes. With a ton of votes outstanding, though, this lead is hardly safe.

1:21AM: Why is the Dem primary ballot referred to as the “ADL” Party primary, you ask? Answer: typical Republican ballot box b.s.  

1:15AM: Here we go, folks! 31% is in, and Young is up by a nose. Wow. Berkowitz and Stevens are cruising.

1:07AM: A friend on the ground in Alaska tells SSP that AK officials may hold off reporting any numbers until 50% of precincts are counted.

12:38AM: It may take a few minutes before we start to see any results trickle in. They still have to wait for a shipment of ballot boxes stuffed with votes for Don Young to come in from the Coconut Road precincts in Florida, after all.