Tag: AK-Sen

Huge news out of Alaska: former Democratic State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz has announced that he will run against the muck-encrusted GOP Rep. Don Young.  Berkowitz, considered a rising star within the state party, served five terms in the state House from 1996-2006 and ran for Lt. Governor on the ticket led by Tony Knowles last year.  You can check out his campaign website here.

Berkowitz has been heavily courted by the DCCC to run for the seat, but his name has also been mentioned as a potential opponent to Internet guru and Senator Ted Stevens if Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich passed on that race.  This is a pretty big development, as Begich and Berkowitz have been in contact with each other during the past few months to co-ordinate their potential campaigns and each settle on a target (Stevens or Young).  With Berkowitz formally in the ring against Young, we can safely assume that it’s a Senate bid or nothing for Begich.

Berkowitz faces former Alaska Democratic Party Chairman Jake Metcalfe and 2006 nominee Diane Benson in the Democratic primary.

UPDATE: It looks like Young will have a primary opponent–state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, a former Democrat.

Race Tracker: AK-AL

Buried in Newsweek’s very recent interview with Idaho Governor Otter is this statement:

We’ve now got five Republicans [retiring or resigning], and I guess there’s a few more that may make a statement, from what [Senate Minority Leader] Mitch McConnell’s told me.

Full analysis at Campaign Diaries.

Otter plainly hints here at the possibility of more Republican seats opening up! But which could those be? At this point, few Senate watchers are expecting any, as most people on the retirement watch list have announced their intentions: John Warner and Chuck Hagel retired, and so did Pete Domenici who had been on this watch list since the beginning of the cycle. The reason his retirement caused such a surprise is that Domenici had started to raise money, leading to the assumption that he would run again.

The last senator who was facing persistent retirement rumors earlier in the year was Mississippi’s Cochran, but the conventional wisdom soon became that Cochran would run again (mostly because Cochran’s heir apparent, Rep. Pickering, announced he would leave Congress next year, which he presumably would not have done if Cochran had hinted at the possibility of the Senate seat opening up).

So who are those “few more” Republican who could still pull the plug on a re-election run? The first person that comes to mind, obviously, is Alaska’s Ted Stevens. Stevens is in the middle of an FBI investigation for alleged corruption, and the scandal has been picking up in recent weeks. Who knows what the investigation’s state will be a year from now. Stevens might even be indicted by then, which has got to worry Republicans who might be pressuring Stevens to step down.

This is the only obvious answer. Otter clearly used plural form, so who else remains? Could we have misjudged Cochran’s intentions? An open seat in Mississippi would be a huge opportunity for Democrats who have a strong candidate (Attorney General Moore). Two other faint possibilities are North Carolina’s Elizabeth Dole and Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander. Both senators faced some rumors they might call it quits early this year, but speculation quieted down as all signs were pointing towards both of them preparing a new run.

Check out these recently updated Senate Rankings for a take on where those races rank for now, and how much open seats there could dramatically expand the playing field.

In a recent poll comissioned by the state Democratic party, Alaskan voters said that they were unlikely to re-elect Republican Internet Guru Ted Stevens to the US Senate.

Likelihood to re-elect (Hays Research Group, 9/17-18; June results in parentheses; n=401; MoE=+-4.9%):

Very Unlikely: 29 (30)
Somewhat Unlikely: 16 (13)
Undecided: 11 (6)
Somewhat Likely: 16 (22)
Very Likely: 27 (28)

These numbers are certainly moving in the right direction, as a full 45% of Alaskans say they're unlikely to re-elect the veteran legislator to a seventh full term.

I guess all the corruption was bound to catch up to him at some point.

Congressional politics is defying all electoral norms these days. Usually, parties fear retirements more than anything and do as much as they can to get their representatives and senators to run again. Last week, however, Republicans breathed a small sigh of relief when Rep. Renzi announced he would not seek re-election in AZ-1. Stuck in ethical investigations, Renzi was playing right in the hands of the Democratic argument that Republicans are ethically challenged, and he could have doomed GOP chances in his district. Republicans learned the lesson of 2006, when they lost many of their House seats in heavy Republican territory because the incumbent was embroiled in scandals. (The worst were girlfriend-beating and mistress-strangling allegations made against Sweeney in NY-20 and Sherwood in PA-10). An open seat, Republicans reason, might actually be easier to defend.

The same thing is happening now: the resilience of Senator Craig, Senator Stevens of Alaska and Rep. Doolittle (CA-4) in the face of scandal are making their seats pick-up opportunies for Democrats. If any of these Republicans were to retire, Democratic chances would diminish.

Read full analysis – as well as an analysis of the South Dakota Senate race, where Republicans are also looking for a resignation to have any hope of having the seat – here, at Campaign Diaries.

• Idaho

Senator Craig is the only one I believe should not retire, given the shady nature of the police report and Republican hypocrisy. But it is undeniable that his running for re-election is what gives Democrats the best shot. Yesterday, Mitch McConnell talked to Craig and confirmed reports that Craig was going to fight to invalidate his own guilty plea — and would stay in the Senate if he succeeded. McConnell implied he thought Craig should stay away from the Senate, and furious Republicans said the same, and moved to already replace Craig on the Senate committees he vacated last week.

But all might not be lost for Democrats even if Craig does resign. Idaho Governor Otter was reported yesterday to be considering appointing a place-holder, meaning someone who will not run for a full-term in 2008. Otter reportedly said that too many Republicans want the job, so that it would be unfair of him to act as a one-man Republican primary. In such a case, Otter would allow Lt. Gov Rish, Rep. Simpson and otehr Idaho Republican figures to fight it out in the primary, and then compete for an open seat. Republicans would probably still be favored, but La Rocco would at least have an opening.

• Alaska

Alaska Democrats have not been able to capitalize on opportunities the past few cycles, with former Governor Knowles losing a very tight Senate race in 2004 and a not-so-tight race for Governor in 2006. The Republican bench in Alaska is deep, and the Palin v. Knowles race 2006 indicated that the GOP has a huge edge in case of open seats. So, Dems have no chance against veteran Senator Stevens in 2008? Not so fast. We all remember how the FBI raided Stevens’s house last month. Yesterday came news from The Hill that the allegations of unethical behavior are mounting against Stevens:

Sen. Ted Stevens has quietly steered millions of federal dollars to a sportfishing industry group founded by Bob Penney, a longtime friend who helped the Alaska Republican profit from a lucrative land deal, according to public records and officials from the state. Critics say those earmarked federal dollars could be the first example of how Stevens rewarded Penney for a land deal in Utah that reportedly earned the senator more than $125,000. Penney’s group, for its part, rewarded Stevens with several expensive gifts at the time it was receiving the earmarked dollars.

With Anchorage Mayor Begich possibly getting in the race, Democrats would have an easier time making a case against Sen. Stevens than winning an open seat.

• CA-4

Rep. Doolittle represents a very Republican district of California that should be no trouble for Republicans. But he is being investigated for corruption and for his ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Plagued by the scandal, Doolittle barely survived in the 2006 election, edging Democrat Brown by a few points. Brown is back for a rematch, and knows that the Republican edge of the district would be to much to overcome if it wasn’t for Doolittle’s troubles. Yesterday, things got a bit more difficult for Doolittle, as two of his aides were subpoenaed to testify in front of a grand jury.

And then came out this poll from a Republican polling firm (Wilson Research Strategies) showing that Doolittle would lose against Charlie Brown 51% to 31%. Doolittle, who is facing a Republican primary against several candidates, would edge out his competitors with only 34% of the vote. You better believe Republicans are praying for Doolittle to resign or lose the primary. Or they might as well give up any hope of keeping CA-4 come November 2008.

Read full analysis – as well as an analysis of the South Dakota Senate race, where Republicans are also looking for a resignation to have any hope of having the seat – here, at Campaign Diaries.

In two successive election cycles, Alaska voters have shown signs of discontent with statewide politics as usual.  In 2004, newly-appointed Sen. Lisa Murkowski narrowly survived a challenge from Democrat Tony Knowles, while Bush crushed Kerry in the state.  Less than two years later, Murkowski's father, Frank, was ejected from the Governor's office by collecting a stunning 19% of the Republican primary vote amid charges of arrogance, nepotism, and wasteful spending.  At the same time, Alaska's long-serving Representative Don Young won re-election by his smallest margin in years, garnering 57% of the vote against underfunded, unknown Democratic challenger Diane Benson.

On top of it all, once invincible incumbents like Young (FL-AL) and Senator Ted Stevens are appearing much more mortal lately, with FBI investigations swirling around Stevens and his son regarding unethical transactions with the VECO Corporation (including a generous remodeling of the elder Stevens' home), and revelations that Young is not only wasting taxpayers' dollars in Alaska, he's doing it in Florida, too, with pleasant “side-effects” for a major contributor to his campaign (but no apparent benefit for Alaska, of course).

According to Roll Call, the Club For Growth, an organization always eager to intervene in Republican primaries in order to advance its Lochner Era economic agenda, is sniffing blood in the water.  In a poll commissioned by the CFG, 66% of likely Republican primary voters disapproved of the $223 million “bridge to nowhere” (a project vigorously defended by Stevens and Young), 71% believe that federal pork to Alaska should be cut, and 47% believe that it is time for a new Senator to replace Stevens.

Roll Call adds that such a salvo is well-timed, as some state Republicans are weighing challenges to Stevens or Young:

At least seven Republicans reportedly are mulling bids. Former Lt. Gov. Loren Leman is on the list, as is former state Senate President Mike Miller, who challenged Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) for the GOP nod when she sought a full term in 2004

While the Club For Growth has yet to commit to funding a primary challenge to either of these incumbents, I fully welcome their involvement.  Given the Club's dubious track record of backing candidates who struggle with mainstream appeal in solidly Republican districts (Bill Sali in ID-01, Doug Lamborn in CO-05, Tim Walberg in MI-07, Adrian Smith in NE-03, etc.), and the assist that they could provide Democrats by raising Stevens and Young's negatives while helping to drain the incumbents' cash reserves before the general election, a pair of primaries could be a very entertaining sideshow on the way to 2008.  It would be especially entertaining, of course, if the DSCC and the DCCC get their way and Anchorage mayor Mark Begich and 2006 Lt. Gov. nominee Ethan Berkowitz enter the races under the Democratic banner.

In the meantime, you've gotta love money quotes like this one from CFG wingnut extraordinaire Pat Toomey:

“Like the rest of the country, Alaska taxpayers are fed up with runaway spending, wasteful projects, and the corruption that they can breed,” said Club for Growth President Pat Toomey. “Defending his pork career in 2001, Ted Stevens told National Public Radio, ‘I am guilty of asking the Senate for pork and proud of the Senate for giving it to me.’ Clearly, the sentiment isn’t shared by Republican primary voters back home.”

[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

2008 could be a record year for unexpected Republican primaries. Whether or not strong contenders emerge, Republican primaries are, of course, expected in states from South Dakota to New Jersey, states with Democratic Senate incumbents but a handful (or more) of ambitious Republicans itching to take their shots. And, of course, there will be notable Democratic primaries ranging from Minnesota to Georgia. But the number of unexpected potential Republican primaries for Senate in 2008 is running high.

There are a number of reasons for this. One reason, illustrated more clearly in the Republican Presidential primary, is general discontent by Republican voters of Republican candidates and officials.  Another reason is that Republicans are particularly divided over the issue of immigration reform. Another reason could be that, in many races, the incumbent Republican simply isn’t conservative enough for the base.  Though several of these states with unexpected potential Republican primaries are traditionally red states, the emergence of a viable Democratic challenger in many of these states makes the possibility of a primary all the more daunting for Republicans.

(Much more below the fold.)

Lack of Leadership

Kentucky: Many elements of the conservative base are growingly unhappy with Mitch McConnell’s helming of Senate Republicans, and none have been more vocal than the conservative blogosphere across the country, many of whom have focused on their discontent with McConnell’s support for Bush’s bipartisan immigration reform attempts.  Further, in Kentucky, 1995 GOP gubernatorial nominee Larry Forgy, a loyalist to corrupt incumbent Governor Ernie Fletcher, has hinted that he would consider or support a primary challenge to McConnell if he felt McConnell did not do enough to help Fletcher’s embattled re-election bid.  While McConnell enjoys a hefty bankroll, the power of his political machine has diminished as demonstrated by Anne Northup’s gubernatorial primary defeat to Ernie Fletcher.  If a Republican primary challenger sapped significant resources of McConnell’s, he could find himself very vulnerable to a viable Democrat, say either 2003 Lt. Gov. nominee Charlie Owen or state Attorney General Greg Stumbo.

Immigration Reform

South Carolina: Primarily driven by anger over Lindsey Graham’s support for immigration reform, the South Carolina conservative netroots have begun voicing their displeasure with Graham and desire for a primary challenger.  Dump Lindsey.org and Dump Lindsey Graham express South Carolina conservatives’ preference for a replacement for Graham.  As Hotline’s Blogometer reported:

A new project launched by conservative bloggers promises a primary challenge for any GOP Senator who votes for the [immigration reform] proposal. The most prominent in that field? None other than McCain supporter Lindsay Graham (R-SC). So far, there have been rumblings of a primary challenge for Graham but no candidate yet. If the revived immigration plan comes up to a vote, will Graham’s yea or ney be the triggering mechanism?

This project is called The Payback Project and it seems to have successfully spooked Saxby Chambliss of Georgia into distancing himself from the immigration reform legislation.  If Graham continues his support for the immigration reform legislation, expect talk of a primary to intensify.  After that, Democrats still need to come through with a viable Senate candidate.

Not “Conservative” Enough

Oregon: For more than a decade, Gordon Smith has been Oregon’s only statewide Republican.  He has achieved this by presenting himself as a moderate who can voice Oregon’s concerns to the Republican leadership in the White House and Congress.  But with the Republican brand inreasingly tarnished, and with Smith’s back-and-forth on Iraq demonstrating his lack of integrity, he is coming off as too far to the right for Oregon moderates but also too fiscally irresponsible for conservatives.  As such, 1998 GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Sizemore has hinted that he would consider a primary challenge to Smith.  While Democrats have had a difficult time recruiting a top-tier challenger for Smith, the job would be considerably easier if a Republican primary challenger pulled Smith to the right and sapped significant resources.

Minnesota: Norm Coleman finds himself in a similar situation to Gordon Smith, having to maintain moderate credibility to ensure a necessary breadth of support.  Minnesota will have no shortage of Democratic candidates itching to take Coleman on, be it a famous satirist, an attorney who slew Big Tobacco, a Nobel Laureate, and so on.  It would help the eventual Democratic nominee if Coleman was pulled to the right and had resources sapped by a primary challenger.  Enter Joe Repya, a military veteran and former advisor to Coleman who is considering entering the race.  Despite Repya’s ideological position to the right of the GOP, his apparent sincerity and straightforwardness would offer a damaging foil for the political opportunist Coleman and severely weaken his character before entering the general election, if he wins the primary, that is.

Retirements

Colorado: Senator Wayne Allard has retired and former Rep. Bob Schaffer appears to be the presumptive Republican Senate nominee for 2008.  But enough rumblings keep occuring suggesting that a bloc of the CO-GOP is not convinced Schaffer is a viable candidate against Democratic Congressman Mark Udall.  As such, we could still see a CO-GOP primary, leaving the eventual Republican nominee worse for the wear.

Nebraska: There will be a Republican primary in Nebraska.  The only question is whether or not Chuck Hagel will be involved.  If he is, Hagel will likely still see opposition from state Attorney General Jon Bruning, whose campaign has highlighted Hagel’s lack of support for the Bush administration on Iraq, and former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub.  If Hagel does not run for re-election, expect those two candidates plus businessman Tony Raimondo and who knows how many others might consider a bid for an open seat.  This would not be as notable a scenario if it wasn’t for the fact that two prominent Nebraska Democrats were considering Senate bids: Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey and former Senator Bob Kerrey.  As it seems unlikely that there would be a Democratic primary, whichever Democrat steps up will be at full strength to await a battle-bruised, resource-diminished Republican.

Idaho: If Larry Craig doesn’t retire, than this paragraph is moot.  However, if I had to make a wager, I’d bet on a Craig retirement.  Should Craig retire, Idaho’s GOP Lt. Gov. Jim Risch has been drooling to enter the Senate race and GOP Rep. Mike Simpson has at times expressed interest.  While Idaho is just about as red a state as there is, the ID-Dems have put up their strongest Senate candidate in years in former Congressman Larry LaRocco.  Should Craig retire and a rough Republican primary politically injury the eventual Republican nominee, Democrats would have their best opportunity in years for a Senate pickup here.

Ethics Problems

New Mexico: Pete Domenici’s role in the Attorney Purge scandal has been widely reported and its impact on Domenici’s approval rating has been observed.  With Domenici’s approval bottoming out, for the moment, around 50%, he is still awaiting the results of the Senate Ethics Committee’s investigation.  Should findings or political fallout result in a Domenici retirement or resignation, we could very well see a Republican primary in New Mexico to replace Domenici.  Though far-right GOP Rep. Steve Pearce would be the frontrunner, a less far-right Republican might see an opening for a challenge.  Meanwhile, the prospect of an open seat could entice Democratic Congressman Tom Udall or another top-tier Democrat to enter the race.

Alaska: As Ted Stevens gets more deeply embroiled in FBI investigations surrounding renovations to his home and his relationship with the corrupt VECO Corporation, coupled with Stevens advanced age, declining poll numbers, and increased interest from Democratic Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, Stevens could yet opt for retirement (if the FBI’s investigation doesn’t turn up something sooner that might force Stevens from the Senate), leaving Alaska wide open for a Republican Senate primary.

With the NRSC’s fundraising being well eclipsed by the DSCC, and with 21 Republican incumbents to protect compared with 12 Democrats, Republican Senate resources will be spread awfully thin in 2008.  The prospect of all these primaries, sapping already sparse resources, looms large over Republicans hoping to minimize losses in 2008 following a majority-losing 2006.

MyDD’s Jonathan Singer recently had an excellent pair of posts chronicling the ethics controversies currently swirling around two of Alaska’s Republican federal statewide officeholders: Rep. Don Young and Sen. Ted Stevens.  While the FBI is sniffing around Stevens and his son, Young has been catching heat for inserting a $10 million dollar earmark in a 2006 transportation bill that just so happened to boost the fortunes of a local real estate developer–and Don Young fundraiser–over the objections of local officials:

The Republican congressman whose district does include Coconut Road says he did not seek the money. County authorities have twice voted not to use it, until Mr. Young and the district congressman wrote letters warning that a refusal could jeopardize future federal money for the county. […]

Mr. Young’s role, first reported by The Naples Daily News, has escalated objections to the project. Environmentalists say the interchange would threaten wetlands. And a Republican commissioner of Lee County, Ray Judah, is campaigning against the interchange, calling it an example of Congressional corruption that is “a cancer on the federal government.”

“It would appear that Don Young was doing a favor for a major contributor,” Mr. Judah said.

With former Governor Tony Knowles having flamed out in two successive elections, Democrats are setting their eyes on recruiting who they believe will be their party’s next great hope to take on one of these highly-entrenched incumbents next year:

With a trio of stories today involving ethical allegations against Alaska Republicans, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich’s phone started ringing early with calls from Capitol Hill.

Begich, a popular mayor who won his second three-year term a year ago, is being courted to challenge one or the other of Alaska’s longtime Republican incumbents, who have more than 73 years of combined congressional experience. He’s the son of the late Rep. Nick Begich (D-Alaska), who died in a 1972 plane crash with the late Rep. Hale Boggs (D-La.), in a remote part of the Frontier State. Begich, now 44, was 10 at the time.

Facing a term limit in the spring of 2009, Begich is in a minor bidding war between the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — which wants him to challenge Rep. Don Young (R), who took his father’s seat after the crash — and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee — seeking a challenger to Sen. Ted Stevens (R), 83, the longest-serving Republican in Senate history.

Now, if you were Begich, which race would you prefer to take a crack at?  Barring a retirement by either of these geezers (which is not outside the realm of possibility), I’d lean in favor of a Begich vs. Young match-up.  Both Young and Stevens are institutions within Alaska, but Stevens moreso, what with his seniority and his curious tie collection.  And while Young has cruised to comfortable re-election margins after a couple of scares in the early 1990s, the luster was removed after his relatively humble performance against little-known Democrat Diane Benson in 2006, where Young only won by a 57-40 margin despite outspending Benson by a nearly 10-to-1 ratio.  (Compare that to his 2002 and 2004 wins of 75-17 and 71-23, respectively.)

On top of that, the potential negative campaign narrative against Young could be devastating.  The last time I checked, Alaska and Florida are on polar opposite ends of the United States, and that could be especially damning if Begich and the DCCC slam Young for being “the unofficial representative of Florida.”   “Don Young (FL-AL)” has a pretty good ring to it, wouldn’t you say?

Race Tracker: AK-Sen | AK-AL

(From the diaries – promoted by DavidNYC)

[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

In the left-hand column of the Guru’s website, there is a list of “Democratic Senatorial Incumbents and Candidates” featuring Democratic incumbents, announced Democratic challengers for GOP-held seats, and Democrats considering bids for GOP-held seats.  Though there is still much time left to recruit challengers, there are seven states on the list featuring only “unknown” – in other words, there are seven states with Republican incumbent Senators where there are no Democrats even publicly considering a Senate bid, only rumors at best.  Let’s look at those seven states.

(Much more after the jump.)

Alaska: Given Ted Stevens’ advanced age (he’s 83), his penchant for flying off in a tizzy from time to time, and his proximity to scandal, Democrats ought to field someone credible just in case.  Much speculation has focused on Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, who is term-limited out of office in 2009.  I think he should definitely run.  Best case scenario, he wins.  Worst case scenario, he loses but he increases his statewide profile for a 2010 challenge to Lisa Murkowski, who is significantly less popular than Stevens at a time when the Murkowski name isn’t worth what it used to be in Alaska.  (Her father, former Senator and now-former-Governor Frank Murkowski, had a dismal 19% showing in his 2006 primary bid for re-election after having taken heat for the nepotism associated with naming his daughter to his old Senate seat.)  If the DSCC offered him continued support in 2010 if he didn’t win 2008, he could go for it.  Otherwise, we ought to check with Alaska Democratic mainstay former Governor Tony Knowles or, perhaps more quixotically, former Senator and current Presidential candidate Mike Gravel to see if they wouldn’t mind having their name on the line just in case.  Race tracker wiki: AK-Sen

Georgia: The Peach State has arguably shifted more than any other state in the nation from Democratic- to Republican-trending over the last decade.  Right now, the only thing Democrats have resembling a candidate under the Democratic banner is self-proclaimed “conservative Democrat” and 2004 Bush voter Vernon Jones, the weak-fundraising CEO of DeKalb County.  Beyond that, some Democratic insiders have been urging Congressman Jim Marshall to consider a Senate bid, though Marshall may have a tough House re-election bid on his hands (could that motivate him to just jump into the Senate fray?).  Meanwhile state Attorney General Thurbert Baker has done nothing to quash speculation about Senate interest.  DKos diarists biglib (also now at Tondee’s Tavern), Mister Gloom, and VolvoDrivingLiberal offer thoughts on the GA-Dem bench – mostly just rumors, former candidates, or current office-holders that like where they are.  “Shameless” Saxby Chambliss is the Republican incumbent I would most like to see lose in 2008 as a result of his despicable 2002 campaign, so I hope the GA-Dems come up with something interesting.  I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: not a day goes by where I don’t hope that true American patriot and former Senator Max Cleland doesn’t reconsider a rematch of 2002.  (If you’ll forgive the triple-negative in the previous sentence, I just really want Cleland to get in the race and give Chambliss his comeuppance.)  Race tracker wiki: GA-Sen

Kansas: Pat Roberts’ approval hovers right around the 50% zone, but Kansas is still a red state.  The dream candidate remains popular Governor Kathleen Sebelius, who has expressed no interest in a 2008 Senate race and may be holding out for the 2008 Veepstakes.  With an approval in the 60-70% range and approval among Republicans over 50%, I’m confident she could beat Pat Roberts.  Kansas does enjoy other Democratic statewide elected officials, including Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson (a former KS-GOP Chair who switched parties to run with Sebelius) and state Attorney General Paul Morrison, as well as Democratic Congresspeople Dennis Moore and Nancy Boyda (half of Kansas’ four-person House delegation), but none have indicated interest in a Senate bid.  It would be disappointing to see a potentially competitive race in the heartland fall by the wayside; and, as long as Roberts hovers around 50% approval, Kansas is potentially competitive.  Race tracker wiki: KS-Sen

Mississippi: There is a question as to whether or not incumbent Thad Cochran will run for re-election.  Despite the unusual signals that might suggest retirement, if I had to make a prediction right now, I would offer that Cochran would run for another term, given Cochran’s steady fundraising compared with the meager showing of Cochran understudy Chip Pickering.  The dream candidate in Mississippi would be former state Attorney General Mike Moore, but it has been suggested that Moore would only put the effort into a run if Cochran retired – the catch-22 being that Cochran might only retire if he faced a stiff challenge from someone like Moore.  Like Kansas, half of Mississippi’s four-person House delegation is Democratic, but there have been no rumblings.  Even yearnings for celebrity candidates like author (and former state legislator) John Grisham or actor Morgan Freeman have made the rounds.  But, so far, silence.  Race tracker wiki: MS-Sen

South Carolina: With a very lean SC-Dem bench, Lindsey Graham could be more likely to face a primary challenge from a Club for Growth-style right-winger unhappy with Graham’s maverick nature than a viable Democrat.  Nevertheless, every state should have a challenger.  The race tracker wiki only offers speculation on the SC-Dems’ 2004 Senate challenger, former State Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum, and former state Party Chair Joe Erwin.  Tenenbaum’s successor as Superintendent, Jim Rex, remains South Carolina’s only statewide elected Democrat (and barely, at that, with Rex taking 47.50% percent of the vote to the Republican’s 47.45% of the vote, winning by less than 500 votes in a race where the Green Party candidate took about 9,000 votes, while the Libertarian, Independence, and Constitution Party candidates combined for over 45,000 votes or over 4% of the total vote).  The Palmetto State’s six-person House delegation features two Democrats, both of whom have plum committee assignments in the new Democratic House majority that they probably would not want to part with.  A second-look at the 2006 state election results offer that the top vote-getting Democrat was not Jim Rex but rather Robert Barber, who narrowly lost his bid for the Lieutenant Governor’s office and who has a very interesting background.  If I were the DSCC, I’d give Mr. Barber a ring and find out if there was any interest.  Race tracker wiki: SC-Sen

Tennessee: Tennessee actually enjoys a fairly solid, intriguing bench of potential Senate candidates.  Still, pretty much nothing but silence.  Meanwhile, Lamar Alexander’s approval looms unintimidatingly in the low-50’s.  2006 Democratic TN-Sen nominee former Congressman Harold Ford Jr. has taken the reins of the DLC and seems to have backed off of speculation about a repeat bid in ’08.  Extremely popular Governor Phil Bredesen has not shown any interest in a Senate bid that he could very reasonably win.  Perhaps he, like Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, is waiting on the 2008 Veepstakes.  (Come to think of it, the “popular Democratic Governor uninterested in a very winnable Senate challenge against a lackluster Republican incumbent in favor of the ’08 Veepstakes” motif fits a few states, including Tennessee, Kansas, and North Carolina, and even Wyoming minus the Veepstakes angle.)  Ford’s 2006 primary opponent, state senator Rosalind Kurita, lost a lot of goodwill when she voted for the Republican Speaker of the Senate/Lt. Gov. over the Democratic incumbent.  Speculation has also surrounded Nashville Mayor Bill Purcell, former state Party Chair Bob Tuke, Tipper Gore, and musician & Bush critic Tim McGraw.  DKos diarist Sidof79 keeps regularly tabs on the potential candidates, offering a near-monthly update.  However, so far we have only heard speculation.  Race tracker wiki: TN-Sen

Wyoming: It frequently feels like there are only two Democrats who live in Wyoming: extremely popular Governor Dave Freudenthal, who has demonstrated no interest in a Senate bid; and Gary Trauner, who very narrowly lost his 2006 at-large House challenge to Barbara Cubin and looks like he may be opting for a rematch there.  If I were to gauge the landscape right now, I would deem Mike Enzi the safest Republican up for re-election in 2008 (and the most likely to get a free ride), unless Governor Freudenthal finds the desire to run for Senate.  Surely, somewhere in Wyoming is a Jon Tester/Scott Kleeb-style progressive, populist farmer/rancher.  Race tracker wiki: WY-Sen

Again, every state should find a challenger.  These seven states are not un-winnable.  In fact, most of these states have the potential to be highly competitive races.  Of the seven, three (Kansas, Tennessee, and Wyoming) have very popular Democratic Governors who could immediately make for top-tier races in their respective states.  Alaska has, in my mind, a clear choice to pursue in Mayor Begich, with the offer of continued support through 2010.  Mississippi sees a possible retirement in Cochran as well as another obvious preferred candidate in former AG Moore.  In Georgia, Chambliss’ approval also looms around the low-50’s; maybe if we ask for Senator Cleland politely enough he’ll change his mind and immediately turn Georgia into a highly competitive race.  South Carolina is tough, but there should be no free rides.

Taking a page from NC Dem Party chair Jerry Meek’s playbook, I thought we could open up the floor to a discussion of possible recruits for Senate races in each of the twenty-one GOP-held seats that are up for re-election in 2008. We’ll go in alphabetical order, starting with the first five. Links are to the Race Tracker wiki, in case you need to get your creative juices flowing, and incumbents are in parens:

1) Alabama  (Jeff Sessions)

2) Alaska (Ted Stevens)

3) Colorado (Wayne Allard)

4) Georgia (Saxby Chambliss)

5) Idaho (Larry Craig)

So whom do you like for challengers to these seats? As Meek said, don’t limit yourself to politicians. Businesspeople, community leaders, activists – even athletes or celebrities (think Heath Shuler or Al Franken) – are all fair game. Even seemingly outlandish suggestions are welcome. Would you have ever predicted that the guitarist from Orleans would now be a Congressman-elect?

You never know who might be reading this blog – and cribbing ideas from it!