Tag: TX-32

IVR Polls for Eric Roberson (6/4, likely voters):

Eric Roberson (D): 43

Pete Sessions (R-inc): 52

(MoE: ±4.1%)

TX-32 covers the northwestern suburbs of Dallas. Its population is 36% Hispanic and has a PVI of R+10.7. However, it’s been trending in the right direction: under its current lines, the district supported Bush by 64-36 in 2000, but narrowed to 60-40 in 2004. Mid-decade redistricting forced Democratic Rep. Martin Frost to face off against the incumbent Sessions in 2004, resulting in Frost’s defeat by a 54-44 margin. Dallas attorney Will Pryor (cousin of Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor) attempted a dark horse campaign against Sessions in 2006, but lost by 56-41.

Eric Roberson appears to be even more of a dark horse candidate, having only raised $21,000 for his campaign so far. Of all the “long shot” campaigns in Texas this year (TX-07 and TX-10 are the two other notables), this one seems to be the unlikeliest. But a good showing by Roberson could provide us with some clues and inspiration for the future here.

The Eric Roberson campaign commissioned a poll of CD32. As with earlier polls of CD7 and CD10, the population sampled was prior voters, and results were weighted to match historical turnout. These polls are designed to be apples-to-apples comparisons with earlier elections, looking at how much the district has shifted rather than projecting new turnout patterns. As with the other Congressional polls, I first asked about McCain v Obama, then Cornyn v Noriega and then the Congressional matchup.  While there was minor variation in the responses, margins were identical in all three races.

I find a nine point lead for Pete Sessions and the other Republicans, down from a fifteen point margin in the 2006 election. Three percent said they would vote third party or not vote, in line with the 2.3% that a Libertarian candidate received in 2006. Only one percent said they were undecided in the Congressional race, while the Presidential and Senate races had about 4% undecided.

Questions were posed in this format:

In the 32nd District Congressional race, the candidates are Republican Pete Sessions and Democrat Eric Roberson

If you would vote for Republican Pete Sessions, press 1

If you would vote for Democrat Eric Roberson, press 2

If you would vote for another candidate, or if you would not vote, press 3

If you are undecided, press 4

The order of candidate names and choices is randomized. As of last week, I have changed my format to add the Libertarian candidate’s name, but this poll was conducted prior to that change.

Additional questions requested by the Roberson campaign were asked after the three matchup questions so that there would be no bias. Sessions was viewed favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 39%, with the remainder neutral. Roberson’s name recognition was low, even among those who supported him. Top issue was the Economy, followed by the War.

Illegal Immigration, Change and Healthcare also received support at lower levels.

Sessions 52%

Roberson 43%

Third party/no vote 3%

Undecided 1%

Excluding third party/no vote

Sessions 54%

Roberson 45%

Undecided 1%

581 likely voters polled 6/4/2008, margin of error 4.1%

Other recent Texas polls for comparison

CD10, June 2 – McCaul 52% – Doherty 46%

CD7, April 8 – Culberson 57% – Skelly 39%