Tag: Dino Rossi

SurveyUSA (9/21-22, likely voters, 9/5-7 in parentheses):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 50 (47)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (48)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

I’ll file Washington’s governor’s race in the “good news” column: after a period in the post-GOP convention afterglow when Dino Rossi nosed ahead of Chris Gregoire (or shot ahead by 6, in the case of that sketchy Rasmussen poll), we may be returning the old stasis, with a tiny edge for Gregoire, who remains deeply dependent on Obama coattails to get her over the finish line. In the same sample, Obama leads 54-43, again, much more plausible than his +2 in the last Rasmussen. (H/t mikeel.)

UPDATE: Here’s an amusing little aside. The Washington Democratic Party is suing Secretary of State Sam Reed (a Republican, but a highly ethical one) to force him to change Rossi’s self-selected ballot line (from “GOP Party” to “Republican”). I don’t think the Dems have a legal leg to stand on, but it makes sense for them to try, in wake of last week’s Elway poll giving Gregoire a 4-point lead when Rossi is identified as “prefers GOP Party” and a 10-point lead when he’s identified as “Republican.”

PPP (9/17-19, likely voters, 9/9 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 44 (41)

Pat McCrory (R): 43 (40)

Michael Munger (L): 6 (6)

(MoE: ±3.0%)

Civitas (R) (9/17-20, registered voters, 9/6-10 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 41 (40)

Pat McCrory (R): 43 (39)

Michael Munger: 3 (2)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

I’ll file North Carolina under “mixed bag,” as PPP gives Perdue another small edge (this is the same sample that showed Obama and McCain tied at 46 and Hagan up by 5). Civitas gives McCrory a two-point edge, up from a one-point deficit before (this sample showed Obama/McCain tied at 45 and Dole up by 2). This one clearly will go down to the wire.

Research 2000 for St. Louis Post-Dispatch (9/15-18, likely voters, 7/7-10 in parentheses):

Jay Nixon (D): 50 (52)

Kenny Hulshof (R): 43 (35)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

I’ll file this under “bad news,” but this is the kind of bad news that I’ll gladly take. Jay Nixon still leads Kenny Hulshof by a comfortable margin in the race for the open governor’s seat in Missouri, except Research 2000 (working for the St. Louis newspaper rather than Daily Kos on this one) shows that Hulshof has closed within high single digits instead of the showy double-digit margins Nixon has mostly been posting. Rasmussen gave Nixon a 15-point spread last week, so there’s not much cause for alarm, though. (McCain leads in this sample, 49-45.)

SUSA released another poll on this fascinating governor’s race:

9/23 (682 LVs +/-3.8%) 9/8 in parentheses:

Gregoire 50 (47)

Rossi    48 (48)

So it’s back to where it was just before the primary.  Rossi is still up 53-43 among independents, and the gender gap is small.  They are tied at 48 among men and Gregoire is up 51-47 among women.  I’m starting to think Rossi may have a big barrier at the 48% level that he needs to cross.  Maybe we can be a bit more optimistic on this race.

Bonus result:  Obama leads McCain in the state 54-43.

 

Strategic Vision (R) (9/14-16, likely voters, 7/25-27 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 46 (47)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (45)

(MoE: ±3%)

Another poll of the Washington gubernatorial race, although from rather suspicious Republican polling firm Strategic Vision, confirms the movement in the last month of this race from lean Dem status to a tied, if ever-so-slightly-leaning-GOP, game. Gregoire, after ceding the airwaves for a while, appears to be renewing her ad efforts this week, but news of a $3.2 billion state budget deficit for the next biennium isn’t likely to play out in her favor.

Obama leads McCain 47-42 in Washington in the same poll, consistent with most other polling as well.  

Swing State Project is moving its rating of the Washington governor’s race to “Tossup.”

While we’re reasonably confident in governor Chris Gregoire’s ability to prevail in her rematch with 2004 GOP opponent Dino Rossi, thanks to Obama coattails on top of Washington’s Democratic lean, it’s impossible to ignore the fact that the most recent round of polling from both Rasmussen and SurveyUSA has given narrow leads to Rossi. If there’s any question, look at the trendlines.

There are several factors at work here: a higher energy level on the part of Rossi’s supporters (who have spent the last four years feeling that they wuz robbed), and Rossi’s skill as a retail politician vs. Gregoire’s reluctance to toot her own horn. Most significant is a sustained Rossi ad blitz, funded by big bucks from the Republican Governor’s Association (who don’t have too many other wise places to spend their money) and even more from the Evergreen State’s principal behind-the-scenes right-wing string-pullers, the Building Industry Association of Washington. Rossi will still be running into a stiff Democratic headwind in November, but a Rossi win is no longer out of the question.

SurveyUSA (9/5-7, likely voters, 7/18-20 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 47 (50)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (48)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

In Washington, SurveyUSA comes out with the first poll since March giving GOP challenger Dino Rossi a lead. Two thoughts: this poll was taken over the weekend, at the very peak of the afterglow from the Republican convention, and Rossi has also been hitting the airwaves hard with ads (although that looks to continue for the foreseeable future… the Republican Governor’s Association, not having many other places to spend its money, gave Rossi $1 million on Aug. 21).

Although the crosstabs look quite normal, there’s also something kind of fishy about how some of the numbers break down. In May, Gregoire led by 24 points among women, and trailed by 20 points among men. Today, Gregoire and Rossi are tied among women, and Rossi leads by 2 among men. The Palin pick couldn’t have had that much of an effect, could it? (Especially since polls have generally indicated that pick was more popular with men than women.) In addition, the same sample gave Obama a lead of only 49-45, which is the smallest lead he’s had in Washington since February.

The Pollster.com graph for the race can be seen here.

SurveyUSA (8/11-12, likely voters, 7/13-15 in parentheses):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 50 (49)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (46)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

SurveyUSA (8/9-11, likely voters, 7/12-14 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 47 (47)

Pat McCrory (R): 44 (46)

Mike Munger (L): 5 (3)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

The nation’s two closest gubernatorial races continue to be, well, close according to SurveyUSA. In Washington, SurveyUSA’s numbers stay extremely consistent, with each side gaining a smidge of support, to the extent that only 2% of respondents remain undecided with more than two months to go. I doubt too many people have changed their minds since 2004. (The stability of this race is best seen graphed over at Pollster.com.)

One thing to bear in mind is that Rossi has been engaged in saturation advertising this month (there’s a freakin’ Rossi banner ad at the top of my screen no matter what site I’m looking at), in order to ramp up his numbers for the primary/beauty contest next week, while Gregoire has backed off a bit on advertising. Rossi, I’d imagine, is counting on getting some momentum out of a surprise squeaker victory in the Top 2 primary, possible since he has the more motivated supporters and there won’t be any Obama coattails next week. (As I mentioned in the comments a few days ago, the minor candidates in the primary are a particularly hapless lot this year, incapable of playing spoiler to either Rossi or Gregoire.)

As for the Tar Heel State, that looks very stable too. Here’s its Pollster.com graph. The main fluctuation seems to be right-leaners trying to decide whether to go with McCrory or Munger. (I suspect they’ll, as usual, go with the Republican, which why I’d bet this race winds up being a little closer than Washington in November.)

Survey USA (8/11-12, 718 LVs, July in parentheses):

Gregiore:  50% (49)

Rossi:     48% (46)

One week before the “beauty contest,” Rossi has closed the gap a bit further.  This is going to be very close, and I think who finishes first on the 19th will win in November.  Gregoire just can’t put the race away.  No surprises in the internals this time (shock!) but Rossi leads 50-44 among independents and leads 51-47 among the 42% who think the economy is the most important issue.

Also of note:

Obama’s lead in the state is down to 51-44, a nine point drop from last month.  

Dino Rossi has been going to great lengths to hide his conservative nature in the Washington gubernatorial race: starting with deferring all questions about issues that are sure-fire losers in a blue state (like abortion, always deferred with an “I’m not running on that issue“), and even going so far as to ditch the entire Republican label in favor of the “GOP Party“.

Rossi has also taken extreme measures to keep Democratic cameramen out of his events (to the extent of roping off large swaths of public property), in order to avoid the fate that befell George Allen two years ago almost to the day. Last Thursday Rossi was making an appearance at the Seattle Police Guild headquarters to receive the Guild’s endorsement, and Democratic cameraman Kelly Akers showed up to join other photographers inside the Guild building. Rossi did not get the chance to welcome his friend Akers here, or welcome him to America and the real world of Washington. Instead, off-duty police officers providing security for the event roughed up Akers and forcibly removed him from the event. According to the Seattle Times:

Akers was confronted by three off-duty police officers, and he says one or more grabbed him and pushed him out of the building. Once outside they continued to argue as the officers held Akers in what he described as a “submission hold.”

That’s just current Rossi campaign policy, apparently:

“We don’t allow them in to collect attack video,” Rossi spokeswoman Jill Strait said.

Horse’s Ass has YouTube video of the confrontation, and also, as an amusing compare-and-contrast, video of the rough reception that Rossi’s trackers get when they show up at Christine Gregoire events. As Goldy puts it:

Jesus Christ… they did everything but offer him milk and cookies.

Rasmussen (8/6, likely voters, 7/9, 6/9 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc.): 47 (49, 50)

Dino Rossi (R): 43 (43, 43)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

I’ve repeatedly proclaimed my boredom with the stability of this race (howzabout a new MO-Gov poll instead now that we’ve had the primary?). And maybe the blogger code of ethics should demand that I recuse myself from reporting this poll since I was actually one of the persons polled. Nevertheless, here’s the new Rasmussen: a little more downward drift for Gregoire, Rossi still stuck in park at 43. It’s 50-46 with leaners pushed.

The same sample gives Obama a 52-40 lead, so Gregoire is underperforming the top of the ticket a bit (again). Given Rossi’s inability to increase his share, though, inertia might be enough to carry her over the finish line (again).

Elway Research (7/27-31, registered voters, 6/8-12 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc.): 52 (47)

Dino Rossi (R): 36 (39)

(MoE: ±5%)

The new Elway poll on the Washington governor’s race gives Gregoire her largest lead of any poll this cycle, although it’s pretty consistent with previous Elway and Rasmussen polling.

Strategic Vision (R) (7/25-27, likely voters, 10/5-7/2007 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc.): 47 (47)

Dino Rossi (R): 45 (45)

(MoE: ±3%)

SurveyUSA and Strategic Vision have been presenting a much closer picture of the race, although they’ve also been extremely consistent from poll to poll. (In fact, Strategic Vision gets exactly the same result as the last time they polled the race nine months ago.) As I’ve commented before, this is a race where almost every mind has been made up for four years, and we’re mostly just seeing differences in pollsters’ models.

The Elway poll also polled some downballot issues (albeit with huge undecided numbers), including the suddenly-hotly-contested race for Commissioner of Public Lands. Former Agriculture Director (and 2006 candidate in WA-05) Peter Goldmark (D) is leading two-term incumbent Doug Sutherland (R) 31-30. (Sexual harassment allegations against Sutherland recently came to light.)

In the Attorney General’s race, incumbent Rob McKenna (R) leads Pierce County Executive John Ladenburg (D) 41-30. And the highest-profile initiative on the ballot, I-1000 (to allow physician-assisted suicide), is favored 39-26.