The following is a preview of the initiatives that are expected to/may qualify for the 2008 fall ballot. All signatures are due by July 3, 2008 if they have not already been submitted. Crossposted from Daily Kos (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/25/113448/828/338/541717)
Some Oregon Initiative Basics:
Although commonly thought only as an Initiative process, the actual truth is that there are four major types of ballot measures (of which the first two are by far the most common):
Legislative Referrals-Typically these are constitutional modifications but they can be statutory as well (See 2007’s Measure 49, which modified the state’s land use laws as an example). Depending on the specific measure, they require either a simple majority or, in some cases, a 3/5 majority to get on the ballot.
Citizen Statutory Initiatives-Change or create state law. They require 82,679 signatures.
Citizen Constitutional Initiatives-Change the Oregon Constitution. They require 110,358 signatures.
Citizen Referrals-Refer a recently passed law, by the legislature, to the people for a vote, most recently seen in the failed attempts to get votes on the state’s new domestic partnership (civil unions) and GLBT civil rights laws. They require 55,179 signatures, which must be turned in within 90 days after the law is signed by the Governor.
Ballot Measures are listed by these types and then by their Initiative Petition (IP) number since ballot measure numbers will not be assigned until signature verification is completed on August 3, 2008. Measure numbers are sequential and the first measure this year will be Measure 54. This summary does not include any local ballot measures.
Key:
Measure Type:
C-Constitutional.
S-Statutory.
Will it make the ballot:
Qualified-The imitative is already qualified.
Likely to Qualify-The imitative is likely (85%+) to qualify.
Fate Uncertain-50-50 on whether this initiative will qualify.
Unlikely to Qualify-Less than a 50% chance of qualification.
Race Ratings:
Tossup-Less than 3% margin projected.
Lean-3 to 10% margin.
Likely-11 to 20% margin.
Safe-Greater than 20% margin.
Note: Ratings assume the measure will qualify.
Progress-O-Meter:
How progressive is this initiative, on a 1-10 scale, with 1 being very much not progressive and 10 highly progressive.
Legislative Referrals (Already all qualified):
405-C
Summary: This corrects a bizarre flaw in the state constitution that prohibits citizens under 21 from voting in school board elections (a provision which is, of course, not in effect but should be removed anyways).
Known Opposition: None.
Progress-O-Meter: N/A, technical measure.
Outlook: Safe Yes.
406-C
Summary: Minor fixes to the state’s redistricting process.
Known Opposition: None.
Progress-O-Meter: N/A, technical measure.
Outlook: Safe Yes.
407-C
Summary: Repeals the Double Majority law requiring that 50% of registered voters cast ballots in an election for a bond measure to pass.
Known Opposition: Taxpayer Association of Oregon (Far Right), Bill Sizemore (Sponsor of all things extremely libertarian).
Progress-O-Meter: 10, gets rid of a really stupid law.
Outlook: Likely Yes, the legislature’s approval should allow this one to win pretty easily.
408-S
Summary: Proposes an alternative to Kevin Mannix’s (R-Of Course) property crime sentence minimum initiative. Focuses state policy on treatment rather than prison for low level drug and property crimes.
Known Opposition: Kevin Mannix and his crew.
Progress-O-Meter: 7, its not a great law but its a damn sight better than Mannix’s proposal.
Outlook: Leans to Likely Yes, my guess is that with both on the ballot, Mannix’s extreme measure will fail when compared to this one.
Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:
3-S
Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore
Qualification Status: Qualified.
Summary: This is at least the third time, and I think the fourth, that Sizemore and his gang have proposed this measure, which makes federal income taxes fully deductible on state returns. This measure largely benefits high wage earners and would blow a huge hole in the state’s budget.
Known Opposition: A leading coalition of progressive groups will once again mobilize against this one.
Progress-O-Meter: 1, really really bad.
Outlook: Likely No, the good news is that although Sizemore can qualify measures, he can’t pass them. This proposal has failed by increasingly wider margins every time it’s been proposed.
19-S
Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore.
Qualification Status: Qualified.
Summary: This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.
Known Opposition: I would think a lot of progressive groups will mobilize against this one.
Progress-O-Meter: 2, progressives don’t like race-baiting measures like this one.
Outlook: Leans to Likely No, I think the racist anti-immigrant folks will discover that they have limited political power after this one fails. However, it is impossible to know exactly how this will turn out because this is the first immigration measure to make the ballot here.
20-S
Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore
Qualification Status: Likely to Qualify
Summary: This would require “merit-pay” for teachers in public schools.
Known Opposition: The Oregon Education Association will doubtless go all out against this measure.
Progress-O-Meter: 2, merit pay simply doesn’t work.
Outlook: Leans to Likely No, although the first time tried here, given the more conservative states that have seen this measure fail I doubt this has much of a chance here.
21-S
Chief Sponsor; Bill Sizemore
Qualification Status: Qualified
Summary: This measure would allow minor building changes without a permit.
Known Opposition: None but anything Sizemore proposes won’t stay without opposition for long.
Progress-O-Meter: 5, I honestly don’t know what Sizemore is up to here but I bet it’s no good.
Outlook: Leans to Likely No, I don’t get this one but Sizemore’s name on the measure should be good enough to kill it.
25-S
Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore
Qualification Status: Qualified
Summary: Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.
Known Opposition: The progressive movement in this state will mobilize to kill this one.
Progress-O-Meter: 1, strikes right at the heart of the progressive movement.
Outlook: Likely No, Sizemore=without power, Public Employee Unions=Powerful, enough said.
40-S
Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix
Qualification Status: Qualified
Summary: This is Kevin Mannix’s draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.
Known Opposition: Most of the Legislature for one (See Referral #408) as well as most of the moderate and progressive groups in the state.
Progress-O-Meter: 1, oh Kevin, your ideas suck so much.
Outlook: Likely No, with the competing measure by the legislature, this one appears headed for defeat.
41-C
Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix.
Qualification Status: Likely to Qualify
Summary: Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.
Known Opposition: The current groups that receive lottery funds, schools and parks, will likely oppose this.
Progress-O-Meter: 4, not horrible but not great either.
Outlook: Tossup, IMHO a bad idea but measures like this have fared pretty well in the past.
51-S
Chief Sponsor: R. Russell Walker (Libertarian Activist)
Qualification Status: Fate Uncertain
Summary: Limits contingency fee awards in lawsuits. Your classic “lawsuit reform” measure.
Known Opposition: The Oregon Trial Lawyer’s Association has already come hard strongly against this measure not surprisingly.
Progress-O-Meter: 2, not as bad as the similar measure in 2004, but still quite bad.
Outlook: Leans to Likely No, if a similar measure couldn’t pass in 2004, I doubt this one will now.
53-S
Chief Sponsor: R. Russell Walker
Qualification Status: Fate Uncertain
Summary: Establishes penalties for “frivolous lawsuits.”
Known Opposition: As with the last one, expect the Oregon Trial Lawyers Association to go full out against it.
Progress-O-Meter: 1, closing the courthouse door is not a progressive value.
Outlook: Leans to Likely No, assuming either or both of these qualify, they will likely pass or fail together.
109-S
Chief Sponsor: Former SOS Phil Keisling (D)
Qualification Status: Fate Uncertain
Summary: Creates a Top-Two Open Primary in which all parties run their candidates on the same ballot and the top two, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.
Known Opposition: Both the Oregon D’s and R’s oppose this strongly.
Progress-O-Meter: I’m not even going to try to rate this one because I know I will get slammed if I do but I personally oppose it.
Outlook: Leans No, if this qualifies, the state parties will spend a lot of $ to kill it, so I’ll list it as leans no for now.
Let me know what you think.