(Cross posted on Daily Kos)
Since Election Day, all of the election-related talk has naturally been about 2008, with a few Kissell, Jennings, and Jefferson stories sprinkled in between them. But I say wait a cotton pickin’ minute because we have some southern gubernatorial races to deal with in 2007. Below the fold, I’ll try and go through some background on the three races, the likely contenders, and our chances. I am a Yankee and live in none of the three states, so take my analyses with the required grain of salt.
Mississippi
Date of election:
November 6, 2006
Likely Republican Nominee:
Incumbent Haley Barbour
Possible Democratic Candidates:
Wayne Dowdy – Former Congressman and current head of the Mississippi Democratic Party
James Graves – Member of the Mississippi Supreme Court
Ray Mabus – Former governor, 1988-1992, and former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia
Mike Moore – Former Attorney General, 1988-2004
Ronnie Musgrove – Former governor, 2000-2004, defeated in 2003 by Barbour in a close election
Governor’s Approval Rating:
59%
Analysis:
Probably will be the least competitive of the three gubernatorial races, but that’s not to say it can’t get interesting. The only way, in my opinion, this race is winnable is if Musgrave or Moore throw their respective hats in the ring. Moore is apparently well-liked in the state for most notably taking on tobacco companies and getting them to reimburse the state for treating patients of smoke-related illnesses. Musgrove, being a recent former governor, obviously has the name recognition to make the race potentially competitive. He did however lose in 2003 to Barbour, so quite a few things would have to go right for him to win again in this deep-red state.
No matter who runs however, they face a huge uphill battle facing a fairly popular Republican governor in a Republican state.
Louisiana
Date of election:
October 20, 2007 & November 17, 2007 (if necessary)
Likely Democratic Nominee:
Incumbent Kathleen Blanco
Possible Republican Candidates:
Bobby Jindal – U.S. Congressman for Louisiana’s 1st congressional district
John Georges – CEO of several large Louisiana based businesses
Walter Boasso – State Senator from Arabi
Governor’s Approval Rating:
39%
Analysis:
Blanco may face a strong challenge from Mitch Landrieu, the current Lieutenant Governor, if he decides to enter the race, which some local pundits expect him to do. Former Senator John Breaux has been mentioned as another candidate, but has said he would not enter if Blanco runs for re-election, which she has stated she intends to do. Although she must be considered the favorite among Democrats, a strong challenge from Landrieu would be devastating to her chances as he’ll sifend much needed money from her and potentially cost her an outright victory or, at the least, might allow a Republican into the run-off election.
Bobby Jindal has already announced he will run against Blanco, and from what I can tell, he is already considered the frontrunner in the race. A poll of 600 people in late October showed Jindal with 52% to Blanco’s 20%. Landrieu is polling at 9%. That being said, a lot can happen between Oct 2006 and Oct 2007, but it seems like Blanco has an uphill battle here – a large part of which has to be contributed to the exodus of African-American New Orleans residents leaving the state. An unpopular Democratic governor in a Republican state is not a good thing. Throw in that a large part of her base is gone, and it’s hard to see Blanco winning re-election. One X-factor that’s in her favor is that Jindal is not very battle-tested in that he has won every election by a landslide since taking office.
The other two potential Republicans would not be very significant to the race if they entered.
Note: Louisiana has a run-off election system where if one candidate does not take more than 50% of the vote on Primary Day, another election with the top two finishers is held.
Kentucky
Date of election:
November 6, 2006
Likely Republican Nominee:
Incumbent Ernie Fletcher
Possible Democratic Candidates:
John Y. Brown III – Former Kentucky Secretary of State; son of former Governor of Kentucky John Y. Brown, Jr.
Julian Carroll – Member of the Kentucky State Senate; former Governor of Kentucky, 1974-1979; former Speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives
Ben Chandler – Representative from Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District
Martha Layne Collins – Former Governor of Kentucky, 1983-1987
Brereton Jones – former Governor of Kentucky, 1991-1995
Greg Stumbo – Attorney General of Kentucky
Otis Hensley, Jr – Private contractor
Governor’s Approval Rating:
35%
Analysis:
This is probably the most interesting of the races to watch in 2007, with a whole slew of Democratic heavy-hitters lined up to take on the very corrupt Fletcher. The only Democrat who has announced his candidacy thus far is Hensley (who received 3% of the vote in the 2003 Democratic primary), but as you can see, there are a lot of big names that are rumored to jump into this race.
On the surface – which is about the only place I’m capable of making judgements from – there doesn’t seem to be the one or two stand-out candidates that would make a formidable challenger like there is in Mississippi and Louisiana. Chandler seems like he would make a very formidable candidate, and his seat would not be at-risk as it is heavily Democratic. You probably can’t go wrong with a former governor – which there seems to be a plethora of on the Democratic side – either. Perhaps some Kentucky Swing Staters can shed some light on this race. One thing I do know, however, is that Fletcher is not liked and will face an uphill battle no matter who he faces.
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