Tag: 2007 Elections

That’s the question that has been on my mind since having these dizzying special election results seared into my cortex last weekend:

On Saturday, February 24, there were three special elections for vacancies in the Louisiana House of Representatives.  All three seats were previously held by Democrats, and Democrats easily held on to two of these seats by capturing both run-off slots.  This was no surprise, as both of these retained seats were African-American majority districts.  The other seat, HD01, however, was not a sure thing for Democrats.  Louisianagirl, in her coverage last weekend, wrote:

Although it was previously held by a Democrat named Roy “Hoppy” Hopkins, who recently died of cancer, this open seat can be won by either party.  Indeed, the district has a tendency to vote for Republicans in federal races: John Kerry only received 32.28% of the vote in 2004; Kathleen Blanco received 44.15% of the vote in 2003; and Mary Landrieu received approximately 45.34% of the vote in 2002.  A populist Democrat who understand agricultural and infrastructural issues can win in this district that includes rural Caddo and Bossier Parishes, but it will be a difficult seat for Democrats to hold in November.

And here’s what she had to say about what was at stake:

LA-HD1 is what I consider to be a bellwether race.  If we hold it, we will hold the Louisiana House in November.  If we lose it, then we need to prepare ourselves for the fight of our political lives in November.  Watch the returns of this race, as this race will determine how hard Louisiana Democrats will have to fight if they want to hold on to their majorities in the state legislature.

So let’s put it all on the table: at a combined 27% of the vote, the two Democratic candidates in this special election did even worse than John Kerry’s performance in the district in 2004.  When the locals can’t break Kerry’s benchmark, you know that we’ve written a new definition for “rock bottom” in Louisiana.

So what happened?  By the looks of it, Republicans showed up ready to wrestle this seat to the ground, and Democrats simply did not.  Their candidate, “Jim” Morris, as a Caddo Parish Commissioner, had a high profile in the local government, while Hollier was something of an unknown.  Based on his experience alone, Morris easily snatched up the endorsement of the Shreveport Times, and the rest is written on the wall.  By not putting forth a proven candidate and funneling the appropriate resources to this race, the Louisiana Democratic Party is sending signals of apathy and resignation, rather than the do-or-die, balls-to-the-wall ethos that they will need to exhibit in order to come out of 2007 alive.

Having a drag like Gov. Kathleen Blanco at the top of the ticket this year would be bad enough for the Democratic majorities in the state legislature, but Louisiana Democrats will have to deal with another vulnerability: term limits.  As louisianagirl wrote in her authoritative diary on the subject, half of the 60 incumbent Democrats in the Louisiana House will face mandatory retirement after this year.  With only 53 seats needed to obtain control of the House, that leaves a lot of room for an aggressive, district-by-district challenge by a renewed Louisiana GOP in coordination with a strong top of the ticket challenge to Gov. Blanco.

The stakes of this are fairly high.  Without friendly control of the LA legislature, Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon could see his U.S. House district, and his job security, go up in smoke due to creative redistricting by state Republicans.  On the other hand, if Democrats controlled the redistricting levers, Louisiana’s congressional delegation will almost assuredly lose at least one Republican member of the House in 2012, after the census readjusts the state’s representation to account for population loss.

Additionally, how does ceding certain “swing” districts to the Republicans bode for Democrats’ ability to retain the offices of Gov. Kathleen Blanco and Sen. Mary Landrieu?  Not well, I would argue.

If the Louisiana Democratic Party is serious about staying a relevant political force in the state after November, it has to aggressively defend these seats.  With the disturbing revelation that our one potential savior at the top of the ballot, former Senator John Breaux, is likely ineligible to run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination after he registered to vote in Maryland after he retired in 2005, this defense is all the more crucial.  Just as the New York GOP put everything into holding the State Senate in a wave year, the Louisiana Democratic Party should be preparing something similar for the legislature.

The Louisiana Democratic Party has a shot at redemption coming up very quickly–the March 10th special election for the 94th House District. Louisianagirl contends that, with candidate Deborah Langhoff at the helm, this is a legitimate pick-up opportunity for Team Blue–one of only a precious few that Louisiana Democrats will see during this cycle.  Is the Louisiana Democratic Party doing all that it can to help her out?  Given what pitiful lengths they went to keep the 1st District competitive, I almost dread to hear the answer.

Race Tracker: LA-Gov | LA-Sen | LA-03

The following is a diary Mike Stagg, who ran for the House in LA-07 last November, posted at MyDD on Friday, only to have it pushed aside by all the Presidential diaries.  After we lost one LA State House seat last weekend, I believe we should try to support Langhoff, whether it be through volunteering, contributing or blogging.  Here is Mike’s dairy, and I will try to write more at another time.  Although Mike works with the Langhoff campaign, I do not; I just support her candidacy. 

Deborah Langhoff, you may recall from my other diaries, is a Democrat running for a seat recently vacated by a Republican.  Because Republicans plan on sweeping all statewide and legislative offices this year, we really need to win this seat.  Langhoff’s main Republican opponent in the open primary is Jeb Bruneau, the son of Republican Peppi Bruneau, who evacuated this seat on short notice in order to create a short special election cycle to the benefit of his son.  Langhoff is a grassroots organizer who has the chance to win this seat, and I ask everyone to support her and her really promising campaign.

Anyone interested in seeing the Republican game plan for 2007 unveiled should keep their eye on the special election in House District 94 where Democrat Deborah Langhoff has emerged as a threat to win the seat.

Langhoff, who has won endorsements from the Greater New Orleans AFL-CIO and the New Orleans Coalition, has been warned in recent days that she is about to become the subject of a smear campaign. How did she learn of this? From Republicans (including at least one candidate) who wanted her to know that they “had nothing to do” with what is, allegedly about to happen.

Element One of the 2007 GOP Game Plan: Crank Up the Slime Machine! No doubt money from the Louisiana Committee for a Republican Majority is not far removed from this effort.

Then, today, Jeb Bruneau — the designated heir apparent for whose benefit this special election was engineered (thanks to his daddy’s resignation from the seat) rolled out a mailer touting an endorsement from the leading Republican candidate for governor — Bobby Jindal. Poor Jeb! Bobby’s probably telling him how to run his campaign now! 😉

The mailer looks more like a Jindal piece than a Bruneau piece. No 
doubt Jindal approved it.

Element Two of the 2007 GOP Game Plan: Create an air of inevitability. This, actually, is out of the Karl Rove playbook. Work the media, tout your internal poll numbers (that you won’t let anyone see) or the numbers of a friendly pollster who will skew things your way. Try to depress voter turnout among Democrats by creating a defeatist attitude.

But, the Langhoff campaign is going to unveil a Democratic template of its own. It’s called Fighting Back!

If/when the smear comes, Deborah and her team will come out fighting, slamming the Republican slime machine, calling them out on their cynicism, their reliance on manipulation of process and people in a deceitful effort to retain/gain power at all costs.

Deborah needs your help NOW! There are nine days until the primary. 

The wheels are coming off the Bruneau campaign. The Alliance for Good Government, of which Jeb Bruneau is a member, endorsed another candidate. Deborah’s direct mail campaign has slammed the blatant manipulation of the election process by Peppi Bruneau with the intent of benefitting Jeb — and people are responding. Why are they responding? Because they recognize the attempted manipulation and Deborah has had the courage to call the Bruneaus on it.

As you know, Republicans have targeted at least 37 House seats currently held by Democrats for Republican takeover this fall. They don’t believe they have a single vulnerable seat.

Democrats have a chance to take that seat through Deborah Langhoff’s inspiring campaign.

We can knock their alleged juggernaut off the tracks before it even gets rolling — IF YOU WILL HELP DEBORAH’S CAMPAIGN!!!

Go here: Deborah Langhoff’s website

Make a contribution — even if you don’t live in the district. If you live in or near the district, make a contribution and get involved directly in the campaign. Volunteer to phone bank or walk neighborhoods.

Republicans have big plans for Louisiana that start in 2008. As John Lennon said: “Life is what happens while you’re busy making plans.” Victories are won that way, too. We can upset those GOP plans by working together in 2007.

Help Deborah Langhoff resist the Swiftboating of her campaign! It’s a preview of what Democrats across this state are going to face this fall.

Help fight it NOW!!!

(The importance of holding on to what we can in Louisiana is critical. This will be a make-or-break year for Louisiana Democrats. Are we ready? – promoted by James L.)

Having had penned multiple diaries on Louisiana politics and the plight of the Democratic party in my state here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here, I am elated Thomas F. Schaller of Whistling Past Dixie fame has written this 20 FEB 2007 article for Salon.com on the GOP’s planned 2007 sweep of Louisiana.  The situation is grim, and the graphic accompanying his article, a blue Louisiana in the process of being delaminated into a red Louisiana, aptly summarizes the state of affairs in my state.

Here are some of the key passages from Schaller’s article, key passages I hope will compel my readers to begin participating in the mobilization project on behalf of Louisiana Democrats I am trying to enact here and elsewhere in the blogosphere:

“The polls show him [Bobby Jindal] ahead big.” Not surprisingly, state Republicans are licking their chops. “The GOP is very organized and aggressively fundraising,” says a top Louisiana Democrat, who asked not to be named. “They will be well financed and looking to use a big gubernatorial win [in 2007] to catapult other GOP wins down ballot.” Louisiana is, in short, perhaps the only state in the nation where George W. Bush’s policies may end up creating a permanent Republican majority.

In fact, however, Louisiana was trending away from Democrats even before the hurricane. Bill Clinton carried the state in both 1992 and 1996. But Al Gore — who spent little time there, despite the fact that his campaign manager, Donna Brazile, knows the state’s politics better than almost anyone — received just 45 percent of the vote in 2000. Four years later John Kerry slipped to 42 percent. So recently a swing state, Louisiana will be on neither party’s 2008 target list.

Notice how the second paragraph establishes a causal connection between the national Democratic party’s lack of investment in Louisiana and the state’s rightward trend.  Somehow the fifty-state strategy of Dr. Dean flew over Louisiana, and state Democrats on the local, state and federal level are paying dearly.  And 2007 will be no different.  All statewide, executive offices are on the ballot, as is the entire state legislature, and I have written many diaries that are cited above on the 2007 situation.  Republicans can sweep both state legislative chambers and control redistricting after the 2010 census, lending them the opportunity to gerrymander districts to the favor of the Republicans.  And if a Republican governor in Bobby Jindal is elected, the gerrymander will be especially damaging to Democrats, as he and Sen. David Vitter (R) have been planning the 2007 collapse of the Louisiana Democratic Party for many years.  Discussion of this latest installment of the Southern Strategy can be found in the diaries I cite above, which contain links to other writers who have elaborated on the cynicism undergirding the Republicans’ power grab in Louisiana.

So Schaller has alerted a broader audience of a problem about which I have been writing for at least three months.  What can be done?  Will we bring the fight to the Louisiana GOP?  Or will we allow them to steamroll over our state? 

The first step would be donating to a grassroots Democratic candidate who is running in a special election to be held on 10 March for Louisiana House District Seat 94, a seat vacated by a Republican named Peppi Bruneau, who has held that seat since 1974.  I have penned a long article about this race here, noting how the grassroots, Democratic challenger, Deborah Langhoff, who in my opinion is an excellent candidate we should all support, has a real chance at winning this race.  Her strongest opponent, Jeb Bruneau, Peppi Bruneau’s son, has raised a lot of money with the help of his father and lobbyists in Baton Rouge.  But the cynicism of his father’s last minute retirement has upset voters in District 94, and this gives Langhoff a chance to win this race with her compelling message of governmental reform and change.  

Langhoff’s race is important, as this is one of the first competitive races in 2007.  With the entire legislature up for reelection in November,  a Langhoff victory will send the Louisiana GOP a signal that they have a very big fight on their hands if they want to change this state red.  It will also give beleaguered voters the hope that they will have representatives in Baton Rouge who understand their plight.  

Louisiana, as many of you may recall, was a swing state in 2000.  Clinton won the state in 1992 and 1996, and Mary Landrieu managed to eke out wins for her Senate seat in 1996 and 2002.  If Louisiana falls to the GOP, Arkansas will be the only Democratic leaning state in the South, and the GOP will eventually focus their efforts there.  We must stop the Southern Strategy, and this begins with supporting Deborah Langhoff now.  

Schaller claims that John Breaux, who may run for Governor, may be the only hope for the Louisiana Democratic Party.  Perhaps he is.  But we can also help out by participating in races such as LA-HD94 that may at first seem very insignificant.

Expect more diaries on Louisiana politics.  If the GOP sweeps the state, our displaced residents will most probably never be able to return home.  The GOP has been cynically exploiting Katrina and Rita for political gain, and it is incumbent upon us to inform them that we as citizens will not allow them to destroy a wonderful state in order to expand their political power.  I hope you will join me on behalf of this beautiful albeit struggling state.  And please accept my apologies for the rushed diary.

The ballot for the 10 March open primary for the open Louisiana State House District 94 seat, recently abandoned by Peppi Bruneau, a New Orleans Republican who held this seat since 1974, is set.  Here is how the ballot will appear for the special election:

State Representative, 94th Representative District
0 of 53 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
0  0% Philip C. Brickman, R –
0  0% “Jeb” Bruneau, R –
0  0% John M. Holahan, Jr., D –
0  0% Deborah J. Langhoff, D –
0  0% Nicholas J. “Nick” Lorusso, R –
0  0% William “Bill” Vanderwall, Sr., D –

Louisiana House District 94,

located in the northwestern corner of Orleans Parish, encompasses the Lake Vista, Lakeshore, Lake Terrace, Lake Oaks, Lakewood, Lakeview, Country Club Gardens, Parkview and City Park neighborhoods as well as parts of Mid-City, Gentilly and Faubourg St John.  Traditionally Republican, the voters of District 94 and of northwestern New Orleans have shown signs of shifting their political allegiances.  For in 2006 they ousted Republican incumbent Jay Batt in the City Council District A race and replaced him with Democratic newcomer Shelley Stephenson Midura, who ran an aggressive grassroots campaign that included everything from humorous television commercials to women clad in aprons protesting and marching on Carrollton Avenue.  Although some claim Midura’s 52-48 victory over Jay Batt in the 2006 runoff was an anomaly that was largely the result of population shifts in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, others maintain her victory was undergirded by voters’ distrust of incumbent politicians who were viewed as aloof, corrupt and unresponsive to the needs of the citizens they were elected to represent.

Midura’s 2006 victory is apposite to this discussion of the special election for LA-HD94 for many reasons:  Midura’s City Council A District,

although it contains Democratic precincts in Uptown and Mid-City not included in LA-HD94, is similar in shape and composition to LA-HD94; the open primaries for Midura’s race as well as the race for LA-HD94 contain large fields of candidates along with a vulnerable Republican incumbent, although in the case of LA-HD94 Jeb Bruneau is not the incumbent but the heir apparent of Bruneau père, who is attempting to transfer power from father to son; and Midura’s campaign consultant, Michael Beychok, has been hired by Democratic challenger Deborah Langhoff, a movement candidate who similar to Midura is running a campaign that highlights the corruption and cronyism of the Republican heir apparent while promising to provide overdue advocacy and representation for the beleaguered LA-HD94 voters who are still trying to recover and rebuild in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.  In other words, Langhoff is running on a compelling message of change, and she is using Midura’s victorious 2006 campaign as a model.

Deborah Langhoff is a political activist, small business owner and community organizer who understands the plight of the constituents she desires to serve: a resident of Lake Vista, her home was destroyed in Katrina.  She also has the political and community experience to wage a winning campaign: she founded Democrats in Jeans, a network of Louisiana Democrats who organized to provide assistance to hurricane survivors in the wake of Katrina; she is a Founding Member of the Citizens’ Road Home Action Team, a group who organized on the New Orleans Wiki who desire to ensure everyone receives their Road Home Program funds; she created LaRoots.net, a private database project that sustains and nutures grassroots organization in Louisiana that began as KerryRoots.net during the 2004 Presidential race; she and the group surrounding her who call themselves Beaucoup Blues organized with Jim Dean and Democracy for America in 2005 in order to “turn Louisiana blue;” and she has created and volunteered for multiple arts education programs in public schools in New Orleans.  In other words, Langhoff is the real deal, and her grassroots organization skills will be a huge benefit to the Democratic Party in Louisiana and in the United States as a whole.

Langhoff definitely has a chance of qualifying for the runoff and beating Jeb Bruneau, the presumed frontrunner, with the right amount of effort and funds.  LA-HD94 is comprised of 53 precincts, 42 of which are located in Midura’s City Council A District.  Midura won 10 of these 42 precincts, garnering 3,419 votes to Batt’s 5,385, or 38.8% to Batt’s 61.2%.  The precincts Midura won are located in Mid-City and Parkview, while Batt one in precincts located in Navarre, Lakewood, West End, Lakeview, Lakeshore, Lake Vista, Lake Terrace and Lake Oaks.  LA-HD94 does contain a Mid-City precinct not included in Midura’s City Council A District, and it also includes 2 in Faubourg St. John, also Democratic, and 5 in Fillmore, which is a lot more Democratic than the precincts located along Lake Pontchartrain and the Metarie Canal, where Batt beat Midura, sometimes by large margins.  LA-HD94 also contains 3 Lake Terrace and Lake Oaks precincts not located in Midura’s City Council A District.  A resident of Lake Vista, Langhoff will be able to reduce Republican margins in these precincts.  Midura’s 2006 victory also provides Langhoff with a precedent with which to lure voters to take her candidacy seriously. 

Although Langhoff will have to fight in order to win this seat, it is definitely feasible: she is the only woman on the ballot; there are no other races on the ballot on 10 March, which makes the open primary and the runoff turnout elections, especially as one other special election for the LA House in Orleans Parish in the wake of Katrina, LA-HD97, had very low turnout in the open primary and in the runoff, 2,300 and 5,400 votes respectively, when turnout for such races is normally about 9,000 to 10,000 votes; and Langhoff is exploiting, indeed exacerbating, a general distrust voters have for incumbent politicians, especially local politicians who failed to keep their constituents safe while never delivering the services they promised.

Visit Deborah Langhoff’s website, and consider contributing to her campaign.  Not only will her victory enable us to gain a LA House seat and thereby ensure that chamber is in Democratic hands for redistricting; her victory will be the first signal to the Louisiana GOP that they will have a big fight on their hands when they try to take over both state legislative chambers later this year.

 

Here is some interesting news from the Cook Political Report:

February 16, 2007

Breaking News: Former Democratic Sen. John Breaux is seriously considering a bid for Governor of Louisiana.  John Maginnis, editor of the highly regarded Louisiana Political Fax Weekly, initially reported the news this morning, and the Cook Political Report has independently verified that it is true.  Apparently Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco has privately indicated a willingness to step aside if Breaux, or possibly another Democrat, such as Rep. Charlie Melancon, would run instead.

None of this is a done deal, but Breaux is serious, and his candidacy would change the face of the race for Democrats.

John Maginnis, the Republican operative Cook Political Report cites in their breaking report, writes the following:

Breaux Eyes Governor’s Race
Former Sen. John Breaux has told sources he is “very interested” in running for governor if Kathleen Blanco doesn’t. T. he Fax Weekly spoke to three individuals who say Breaux directly told them of his renewed interest during Washington Mardi Gras.
“This is the most interested I’ve seen him than all the other b.s. we’ve been through,” said a friend of the 61-year-old ex-senator turned high-powered Washington lobbyist. He toyed with campaigning for governor in 2003 and for re-election in 2004, holding the political community and other campaigns in suspense until he announced he would not run.
News of Breaux’s interest both heartens Democrats and puts pressure on Blanco to make her decision soon. The governor is said to have a poll in the field.

If Cook Political Report cites Maginnis, I believe this is news to be taken very seriously.  For Breaux, as many here already know, won his reelection bids for his US Senate seat in 1992 and 1998 in the open primary, not a runoff, with 73% and 64% respectively.  And unlike Landrieu, Breaux’s base is not in Orelans Parish; it is in Acadiana, specifically Acadia Parish.  Moreover, Breaux has overwhelmingly carried what is now the very important, indeed crucial, population center of East Baton Rouge Parish, a feat Mary Landrieu has had much difficulty acheiving, although her 2002 runoff performance is promising. 

Blanco claims a poll is presently in the field, but I am not sure it will convince her to run now that Beaux has indicated a strong interest in the gubernatorial race.  For a Southern Media and Opinion Research poll in January 2007 reported the following:

Republican Jindal leads Blanco, a Democrat, 59 percent to 35 percent, according to a survey of 600 likely voters conducted during the weekend by Southern Media and Opinion Research.

In a three-way race with Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell, Jindal leads Blanco 58 percent to 31 percent, with Campbell pulling 6 percent.

I am not aware of any legislative feat Blanco has acheived with the state House or the state Senate in the past month, but she has managed to convince Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats to craft legislation to benefit Louisiana.  Blanco has also spent the last month vociferously criticizing Bush in the wake of Brown’s statement that the Bush Administration purposefully undermined Louisiana in order to undercut Blanco’s credibility.

But there are at least three variables we need to consider before we assume Breaux would beat Jindal in the open primary or in a very competitive runoff:  Foster Campbell, John Georges and Walter Boasso.  Foster Campbell, a populist Democrat from North Louisiana who is presently the Public Service Commissioner for one fifth of the state, has a warchest of $750,000, and he plans to run.  But Jindal will be splitting the Republican vote with at least Walter Boasso, a state Senator representing Plaquemines Parish, St. Bernard Parish and parts of St. Tammany Parish, and Orleans Parish businessman John Georges, who has committed $2 million of his own money to his campaign.  Jindal has $2.67 million, and Blanco has $3 million.  Although Breaux has not yet announced, I imagine he will match if not surpass Jindal’s warchest.  We should also keep in mind that Blanco, if she abandons her campaign, will have $3 million to distribute through various channels to Breaux. 

If Breaux chooses to run, this race will become very interesting.  As you can see, Jindal already has viable challenges from two Republicans and two Demcrats, Blanco included.  If Breaux enters, it may be possible Jindal does not even make a runoff, as he will split the Republican vote, particularly the Republican votes of populous Jefferson and St. Tammany Parishes, with a popular state Senator and a wealthy Orleans Parish businessman.  And Foster Campbell will complicate Jindal’s bid in North Louisiana, where Blanco, according to the January poll, still maintains an edge.  John Breaux will only compound the problems Jindal already faces, as Breaux will seriously reduce any support Jindal has in Acadiana, which according the January poll could have been a Jindal stronghold. 

While I am still awaiting Breaux’s entry, I am more optimistic about this race than I was a week ago.  A ticket of Jindal, Georges, Boasso, Breaux and Campbell will make it impossible for Jindal to win the Governor’s seat in 2007.  And I imagine this will make it very difficult for the Louisiana GOP to focus on state House and state Senate seats, as they will have to spend to ensure a Republican, any Republican, makes a runoff with Breaux.

And what of Foster Campell, you may ask?  It is a legitimate question.  Building name recognition in 2007, Campbell can prepare himself for a 2010 race against David Vitter, who is now, according to Maginnis, fashioning himself as another John Breaux.  Perhaps Vitter knows Louisianans are not ready to swallow his callous conservatism. 

Folling the tragic news of Charlie Norwood’s death, the Republican vultures took little time to circle the sky above his still-warm body. Two Democrats were also mentioned, but none yet have announced

State Senator Ralph Hudgens (R) — who lost runs for Congress in 1988, 1992 and 1994 — already announced he will run. Hudgens was the early frontrunner in the 1994 GOP primary, but Norwood defeated him in an upset. State Representative Barry Fleming (R) also is likely to run. State Representative Jeanette Jamieson (D) and former Athens-Clarke County Mayor Doc Eldridge (D) are also possible candidates, although CD-10 demographics favor the GOP.

No date has been announced yet, but we should be prepared to at least make the Republicans work for it.

I believe that if Democrats are careful and make the right decisions their momentum from 2006 could push them over the top and that in itself could give them a very strong momentum in fundraising and fervor heading into the crucial 2008 election season. There are three distinct states of massive importance, and there could be a fourth, depending on how the courts fall on FL-13.

I believe that if Democrats are careful and make the right decisions their momentum from 2006 could push them over the top and that in itself could give them a very strong momentum in fundraising and fervor heading into the crucial 2008 election season. There are three distinct states of massive importance, and there could be a fourth, depending on how the courts fall on FL-13.

To start of, I’d like to go with my current state of residence, Louisiana. I’ll divide it into two sections; Governorship and legislature.

The Gubernatorialship

I’m utterly through with Kathleen Blanco, and I’ve been one of her most vocal opponents all along. Yes Mississippi did get far more money when it had 60% less damages than Louisiana, but that’s because they had a far, far more complex and comprehensive strategy to get residence back in real homes and rebuild Gulfport and the damaged areas of Biloxi. Looking at our statewide policy, the road home program has been a complete failure at getting either low income, or upper income families to move back. It’s poorly planned, and we’re still paying a private company millions of dollars a year to run the program.

Even bigger than that, I believe, if Blanco’s failure to push insurance companies much harder on reimbursing Louisiana residents. But, Blanco has yet to get a calculated assessment of all infrastructure damages the public needs to deal with, and then have Melancon or Landrieu submit a bill giving the state every penny that it needs.

Mississippi has used the money it’s gotten efficiently. Louisiana has squandered millions by overpaying contractors, and the state’s even diverted millions more back into the general treasury, something the next batch of federal money should have a safeguard against.

But, regardless of anything else, the varied and sketchy reports of a new, 10 billion dollar oil refinery being in the bag, while other economic observers saying it’s more likely to be built in Texas because of better infrastructure and a better business climate disappoints. Toyota appears to have dropped consideration of the Richland Parish Megasite, likely because the infrastructure of Ouachita Parish just isn’t massive enough for a plant employing five thousand people, though the economy here could really use a blast of nitroglycerin to get it started back up again. The Monroe area has lost State Farm and Guide for a total of 1,200 employees laid off, and that’s just in the last year and half. It may be a trading hub, but apparently it was too far out of the way, or connected well enough to the rest of the state to be a viable option.

These were her two big economic growth plans that she wanted to campaign and I was really disappointed to see them lose a great deal of steam. She did get the one billion dollar synthetic fuel plant built in Ascension Parish, (I could be wrong on what Parish it’s in), that will transform lignite deposits in Northwest Louisiana into a useable fuel. But that’s about it.

That’s one reason why I’ve dropped my support of her.
The other is that we have such a fantastic alternate at the moment. Foster Campbell of Bossier City. He’s known for giving the corrupt Democrats, (and the few corrupt Republicans), that control the state hell while he was in the State Senate. He’s been on the Public Services Commission for one term now. But, it is an obscure position, and his district only covers Northwest Louisiana, 1/8th of the state’s population.

But, not only is he a clean, non-establishment candidate, he’s also a fiery populist. I love populists, and I think that Louisiana’s been missing a major one for decades now. Campbell’s the kind of guy I think would stand up for the little guy, to push for economic growth, but also go after insurance companies and fight for small businesses. He’d try to get new corporations to come to Louisiana, while not being subservient to them.

At the moment, I still predict that Blanco will win the primary, (which in Louisiana is one ballot for all parties that goes into a runoff if no one gets 50%. But, Campbell, whom I strongly support, keeps raising money an even stronger rate than his current pace, and runs one hell of a campaign; I wouldn’t be surprised to see him upset Blanco on election night. However, he needs to maintain his status as the only valid anti-Blanco vote for independents and Democrats. He even needs to work to get a good 10-11 percent of the North Louisiana Republican vote to get in.
There won’t a runoff though, if another serious Republican candidate doesn’t jump in to take up 10-12 percent of Jindall’s vote share and hold him down to about 45%. I’m certain that the Republican Party, as centrally and well organized as it is statewide cannot keep at least one Republican from challenging Jindall. There will be at least one Police Juror, (in Louisiana each county is governed by a board called the Police Jury which serves the purpose of a County Executive, County Judge, County Commissioner, etc), but I’m not sure that would be enough to stop Jindall from getting 50% percent in the first election. The good news is that there are several term limited Republican State Senators mulling runs, and another few term limited State Representatives considering as well. The best case scenario is that two Republican state Senators, one State Rep, and three Police Jurors run against Jindall, and he’s held to a flat 40% vote total, and precious Republican resources go to the other Republican candidates.

If it were to go into a runoff between Blanco and Jindall, she will get her ass kicked, she will get a thumpin’, she will lose by twenty points and the Louisiana Democratic party will be shattered and left reeling. The Party will lose half a dozen State House seats in the runoff because of her horrible performance. It would probably lose a Senate seat on top of that.

Foster Campbell, I feel, could win with help from the national party. He’s a new face, and he’s not part of the establishment which Louisiana voters are so sick of. He’s got a populist demeanor, but it’s unlikely that he will outright scare small business away because he was a small business owner for decades. He’s a good campaigner, and he’s a good fundraiser. But, most of all, he exploits Jindall’s Achilles’ heel; North Louisiana.

In recent years, North Louisiana has been very strong for Republicans. Jindall, while beating Blanco by 25 points statewide in a recent independent poll, beat her by only one in North Louisiana. This area is Foster Campbell’s base, while Blanco hails from the lower half of Acadiana, where I grew up (the Lafayette-Lake Charles area, the lower half of Chris John’s old district in the bottom southwest quadrant of the state). The fact that she performs so well there despite here unpopularity and lack of regional connections, speaks volumes, to me at least, on what kind of sweep Campbell could make.

I think, that now that Chris John has demurred, Foster Campbell is our only chance of holding the Louisiana Gubernatorialship, and salvaging the Louisiana Democratic Party.

On the Legislature, Swing State Project poster louisianagirl has far more detail than I will provide. All I will give are my predictions.

I don’t know much about the house, but many close races will go into runoffs, and if Foster Campbell is in the runoff, whether he wins narrowly, or loses narrowly, I predict we lose four seats overall in the State House.

In the State Senate, I say that my Geometry Teacher’s husband Neil Riser beats the Democrat in Noble Ellington’s extremely Rural and Republican district, resulting in a Republican gain. But, several South Louisiana Republicans, originally elected as Democrats, are term limited out, and Democrats have a solid chance of picking up Craig Romero, who challenged Charlie Melancon last year and lost by about a 16 point margin, with a second Democrat in the race too. Thibideaux’s, I believe his name is, seat is also going to be a great target for Democrats. This leaves Democrats with an overall gain of one in the already overwhelmingly Democratic State Senate, while they do lose four seats in the State House, which, considering they won three seats in 2006 special elections, is not a serious loss.

Though I have to say the recent 527 created by Louisiana Republicans under the similar name as a Tom DeLay’s Texas 527, Louisianans for a Republican Majority I believe it’s called, has worried me. There are a lot of conservative districts that are open right now, and this 527 could raise a great deal of money and tip the balance. At any rate, the State House is where all the action, and the only Republican gains are going to be this year. All other statewide officers are running for reelection and are safe bets to win.

Let’s move on to Kentucky. I know nothing about the state of its State Legislature, that’s not an area I know much about. The Bluegrass Report though will have plenty of info on that. I’ll move solely onto the Gubernatorialship.

The Gubernatorialship

Republicans had their chance to destroy the Democratic Party in Kentucky even worse than it was obliterated in Georgia after 2002. They screwed up worse than any sane political pundit could have ever predicted.

After taking over because of Patton’s sex scandal, Gov. Ernie Fletcher has become embroiled in political scandal after political scandal; that has been the mark of his entire governorship. On top of that, he has not gotten any sweeping piece of legislation passed, he’s been complacent on education, he hasn’t balanced the budget, and he has not brought the state into a new era of economic growth. Fletcher hasn’t endeared himself to the Kentucky public in the least, in fact, he’s one of the most unpopular governors in the country, and has had disapprovals in the negatives by double digits for over a year now.

After it appeared she would not run for Governor, Anne Northup threw her hat in the ring, and it seems that she has the blessing of the kingmaker, (or in her case queenmaker), of the Kentucky Republican party, Mitch McConnell. But, she’s barely beating Fletcher outside the MOE in her own internal polls. Here’s a question for you Kentucky people, I’ve been pondering this, does Kentucky have a runoff in primaries? On another note, the conservative Republican party by and large seems to find the accusations purely political and unfounded. That gives Fletcher an opening, and gives Northup an even harder primary.

Anyway, 38 year old State Treasurer Jonathan Miller is easily the frontrunner for the Democratic primary, with the best connections, and strongest statewide name rec. What I like about him is that he could run for McConnell’s seat when it’s likely to be open, in 2014, and still just 45 years old. I think he’s a real rising star in the Kentucky Democratic Party, and has real Presidential potential in the future. He still has stiff challenge from Speaker of the State House, Jody Richards, but I think in the end he’ll overcome her.

Aside from how electable and strong a candidate he is, he’s also not a very conservative Democrat, his opinions are pretty moderate, and he appears to be a pretty good Democrat.
If Northup wins the Republican primary, which I believe is very likely, (unless there is no runoff in Kentucky and Billy Harper takes enough of the anti-Fletcher vote to allow Fletcher to edge Northup out), then this race is going to be close because she’ll rack up a landslide in KY-04, Geoff Davis’ district, and definitely hold Miller to a narrow margin of victory in strongly Democratic KY-03, her old district which is dominated by the liberal city of Louisville, (in fact, KY-03 is the only district in Kentucky that is not primarily suburban/exurban and rural, it’s the only urban district, and, despite Kerry’s weak showing, is reliably and strongly Democratic in statewide and local elections). I don’t think she win her old district, but a strong showing there would definitely require Miller to have a very strong showing in Chandler’s district, Hal Rogers district, (which is really Democratic on a local level, much like it’s neighbor, West Virginia. This district became even more Democratic when it was made to cover all of Eastern Kentucky after the 1992 reapportionment), Ed Barlow’s district, which some have called the most Republican of Kentucky districts, I disagree, and ancestrally Democratic KY-02, Ron Lewis’ district, (which is extremely socially conservative). Still, even with Northup and her infamous campaign savvy, as his opponent, I’d still predict him winning 52-47. With Fletcher, I’d say 59-40.

A quick note on the other statewide offices: Rep. Mike Weaver, who ran against Ron Lewis, is running for State Treasurer, I’d call him the underdog in the Democratic primary. Other statewide offices that are currently open are: Attorney General. I’d say we’ll definitely hold the State House in this great environment, and possibly, just maybe, pick up the State Senate, at the very least we’ll make gains.

I’m going to be brief on Mississippi as well, because, as with Kentucky, my knowledge of politics there is not as extensive and far reaching as I’d like, hell, I’m pissed off because I don’t know much about Louisiana politics after living here a year because the News-Star is the stupidest, shittiest, local newspaper I’ve ever encountered. It has no meat to it, and it’s absolutely useless for reading anything about politics. I don’t think I’ll even try on anything but the Governorship.

The Gubernatorialship

Things are remarkably low key in this race so far, but state Democrats salivating over the rumors of a Mabus/Moore candidacy. Mabus, a former Governor who lost his 1991 reelection campaign to a populist oriented Republican who ended up becoming very unpopular by the end of his two terms, is from North Mississippi and carries his own strengths as a candidate, including name rec. Moore was a popular four term Attorney General who retired in 2003. He’s from Biloxi, and carries great name rec., connections, and a base shared by Barbour.

This is a dream ticket, a dream ticket I’m skeptical will happen. I feel it’s likely that Mabus will jump in the ring, considering how publicly active he’s suddenly become in recent years. But, I don’t feel Moore will jump. I think Moore was through with politics in 2003, and if he did feel like getting in, I don’t think he’d want to take the backseat, even if it would probably only be for one term because of Mabus’ age and health, which could end up being campaign issues.

That’s all there really is to say about the race. This is just a skeleton analysis, because no major Democrat has jumped in to take on Haley Barbour yet. This is skimpy analysis. I normally have a lot more info, but this is the beginning outlook, nothing has happened yet, and there haven’t been any polls. I can offer my current prediction, which is that even our dream ticket, Barbour’s carried over the finish line 52-48 by his Katrina performance, and his campaigning saviness. It is important to keep Barbour sweating and on his heels this election though, that way Republican money there doesn’t go to the state legislature, and Barbour isn’t allowed to rack up a landslide and give Republicans a big gain in both houses. At current, I think the Democrats will keep the Mississippi State Legislature no matter what, though conservative Democrats will continue to give Republicans all but operational control of it.

An interesting side note, we have a great chance of retaking the Governorship when it’s open in 2011 due to term limits. Current Attorney General Jim Hood is popular, and he built a strong coalition to in 2003 to stave off a tough Republican attempt on the open seat, and he’s likely to win reelection in a landslide.

That’s the State of 2007, at the moment. Other states of interest include Virginia and New Jersey where the entire State Legislatures are up for reelection. I think Democrats have a real chance of taking back the Virginia State Senate, and increasing their margins in New Jersey. Those’ll be the sites of heated contests. If courts rule in Jennings favor, and determine that there needs to be a new election, that election will likely be held in November if Jennings can get through the legal system that fast. That would make Florida the site of a major election as well, as a Democratic victory here would vastly increase our momentum going into 2008.

“On the last note, I’m predicting that we’ll win the special election for the State Senate seat in Brooklyn. It’s tomorrow, and I would be shocked to see us lose it. A plurality of voters, by three percentage points, 38-35 I believe, are registered Democrats, and just to help you get a feel of where that puts it Presidentially, several New York Senate districts with a five or six point Republican edge voted for Kerry. I don’t see how we can lose with the New York Times endorsement, the more conservative and widely read in this district Newsday endorsement, and the massive campaign waged for a very strong candidate, County legislature Craig Johnson. Elliot Spitzer is very popular here, and his endorsement, and cutting an ad for Johnson definitely helps. Not to mention that recent corruption investigation that includes Joe Bruno, the Majority Leader of the State Senate, further highlights Spitzer’s calls for reform, and hurts the New York Republican Party. The Democrats have the momentum, not only because of the endorsements, but because of how Democratic last year was, and the leftover momentum that gave us. I think that nation, especially New York, is still in a very Democratic mood, and the New Democratic Congress is very popular so far, only helping the overall mood. These factors align for what I predict will be a 53-47 victory.”
That was written on Monday, and posted as a comment on a Republican blogger blog. I add it to this diary just to show that my political predictions are about on base, except when I do get carried away, which happened quite often in 2006, and I was occasionally mislead by what I read on the internet, and bad polling. Of course I may have gotten plain lucky that time.

Anyway, please leave comments if you disagree. Please comment if you know more about the elections than I’ve said. If you agree, and want to write a concurrence, please do so. The following thread is an open thread on any 2007 race, including tomorrow’s crucial special election in New York, and races I left out.

P.S. Please vote in the poll. You can’t imagine how much I hate saying this and hate sounding like a broken record, but I like to know how many people read the diary, so if you read this diary, please take a second and vote in the poll.

Louisiana Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell has indicated he plans to challenge Gov. Kathleen Blanco for the Democratic nomination for governor. Campbell is a farmer and businessman who served 27 years in the Louisiana Senate before being elected Public Service Commission in 2002 to represent the North Louisiana district of 24 parishes with over 1 million people. He has been a frequent critic of corporate power, corruption, and special interests and will run a populist style campaign in a state that has a long tradition of electing populist politicians.

http://bluesunbelt.c…

http://www.suntimes….

Mayor Richard Daley announced today that he’s running for his sixth term in 2007. It is my opinion that, assuming he wins reelection, he will step aside in 2009 to take over running the Chicago Olympic Organizing Committee, if Chicago is awarded the 2016 games.

Chris Cillizza and Jeffrey H. Birnbaum have a piece in the Washington Post today on the 2007 race for Governor of Kentucky. The announcement this week by Congressman Ben Chandler that he will not seek to become the Democratic nominee against troubled GOP incumbent Ernie Fletcher opens the field to a number of possible Democratic candidates.

http://bluesunbelt.c…