Tag: Carol Shea-Porter

• NY-20: Lots going on in the Empire State today, as we enter the home stretch. Perhaps most significantly, the GOP finally succeeded in getting Libertarian candidate Eric Sundwall kicked off the ballot, on the grounds that he didn’t have enough valid petition signatures. Siena found Sundwall polling at only 1% (Benenson gave him 4%), but there have been multiple rumored internal polls floating around within the last few days that have it as a 1 or 2-point race, so Sundwall’s votes (which seem likelier to migrate to Jim Tedisco’s column) may make a big difference. (Siena promises a new public poll to be released tomorrow.)

Joe Biden also jumped into the special election, cutting a radio ad touting Murphy and his own sort-of-local ties (he’s a Syracuse Law alum). The NRCC is continuing to work the faux-populist angle, rolling out a new ad criticizing Murphy for being on the board of an Internet company that paid bonuses to workers while losing money. (I assume that company wasn’t receiving hundreds of billions on the government dole, though.)

• CA-10: There’s already an internal poll of the race to replace Ellen Tauscher in the East Bay suburbs, commissioned by assemblywoman Joan Buchanan. In a bit of a surprise, Buchanan leads the pack, slightly edging presumptive frontrunner state senator Mark DeSaulnier. Buchanan is at 21, DeSaulnier at 18, with two Republicans, San Ramon mayor Abram Wilson and former assemblyman Guy Houston, at 14 and 13. (It’s polled that way because in a California special, like in CA-32, all candidates run in a multi-party primary, and if no one breaks 50%, the top person from each primary advances to a general, which according to this poll would be Buchanan and Wilson.) Buchanan and DeSaulnier both are waiting for Tauscher’s resignation to announce; it’s not clear whether either of the GOPers will get involved.

• NH-01: Manchester mayor Frank Guinta looks pretty serious about taking on Carol Shea-Porter in 2010; he met a second time with the NRCC about the race. He’s still likely to face a primary battle against John Stephen, who barely lost to Jeb Bradley in the 2008 primary and seems to be planning to try again.

• OR-05: Buried deep in a CQ article about how the parties are turning more to self-funders is a delightful tidbit about Mike Erickson, last seen getting flattened by Kurt Schrader in the 2008 open seat battle. Despite his last campaign collapsing into a horror show of Cuban junkets and abortion hypocrisy, he’s “actively considering” a third try for the seat in 2010. We could only be so lucky.

• CT-05: It’s been telegraphed for a number of weeks, but today it’s official: Justin Bernier, former Rob Simmons aide and former director of Connecticut’s Office of Military Affairs, will be running against Chris Murphy in the 5th. Murphy had little trouble defeating a state senator, David Cappiello, in 2008.

• NH-Sen, NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter has announced she won’t seek the Senate nomination, giving Paul Hodes a clear path and also preventing us the trouble of holding an open seat.

• PA-Sen: Ed Rendell told a local news affiliate that he, Bob Casey Jr., and Joe Biden have all tried to talk Arlen Specter into switching over to the Democratic Party, but he remains “bound and determined to stay a Republican.”

• NH-02: Stonyfield Farms CEO Gary Hirshberg, a possible candidate to replace Paul Hodes, just wrote his first diary at Daily Kos (on coal power). Is he gearing up to take on a higher political profile? (D)

• TN-Gov: Chris Cillizza fingers Mike McWherter, the son of former Gov. Ned McWherter, as the likely Democratic nominee for Tennessee’s gubernatorial election in 2010 according to “informed insiders”. McWherter, a businessman who has never held elected office, considered running for Senate last year, but ultimately decided to keep his powder dry. (J)

• AL-Gov: Alabama’s AG Troy King plans to run for re-election, rather than pursue the governor’s seat as had been rumored. King may not even survive his re-election, though, what with a gambling-related federal investigation.

• CA-Gov: Got a spare $50 million sitting around? Meg Whitman does, and apparently that’s how much she’s willing to spend out-of-pocket on her quest to become the Golden State’s next governor.

• Demography (warning: big pdf): Ruy Teixeira comes through with yet more demographics-as-destiny wizardry. His new report on the state of the nation sees an America that’s no longer a majority white Christian nation within the next ten years (where four-fifths of growth is non-white), where culture war appeals have diminished force, and where the white working class becomes small enough to lose its iconic swing vote status.

• CT-Sen: The new lovefest between Joe Lieberman and the Democratic Party seems to be reaching the point where they need to get a room. In the wake of yesterday’s endorsement of Chris Dodd, Lieberman is today floating the idea of running in 2012 in the Democratic primary, instead of just as an independent. (Of course, unless Connecticut passes a sore loser law in the next few years, what’s the downside? If he loses the Dem primary again, he can just switch back to CfL one more time.)

• NV-Sen, NV-Gov: The GOP is running out of options for a good challenger to Harry Reid. Former state senator Joe Heck (who lost his Las Vegas-area seat last year) has decided to run in the GOP primary against chronically embattled governor Jim Gibbons instead. (Although if Heck is going against Gibbons, what is Rep. Dean Heller planning to do then?) With ex-Rep. Jon Porter taking the K Street route and Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki under indictment, the GOP’s Nevada bench is nearly empty.

• PA-Sen: Joe Torsella won’t have the Democratic primary in the Pennsylvania senate race to himself. State Rep. Josh Shapiro, a 35-year-old reform-minded legislator from the Philadelphia suburbs, is now exploring the race. This may be a tea leaf that Rep. Allyson Schwartz isn’t getting in the primary, as Shapiro (who’s in PA-13) would likely run for Schwartz’s seat instead if it were going to be open.

• CA-32: EMILY’s List has weighed in in the CA-32 primary, and they’re endorsing… believe it or not… the woman in the race: Board of Equalization chair Judy Chu. Chu’s main competition is state senator Gil Cedillo, who comes in with the endorsement of nearby House members like Xavier Becerra, Linda Sanchez, and Grace Napolitano (Hilda Solis, who used to occupy CA-32, hasn’t endorsed). The district is about 65% Hispanic and 20% Asian.

• NH-01, NH-02: We’re looking at a crowded field for Republican opponents to Carol Shea-Porter: John Stephen, who barely lost the primary last time to ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley, is eyeing the race, as is Manchester mayor Frank Guinta. Businessman Jim Wieczorek also plans to run. Meanwhile, next door in the open NH-02, radio host Jennifer Horn says there’s a good chance she’ll run again in 2010.  

• FL-22: State house majority leader Adam Hasner has been launching a series of attacks on Rep. Ron Klein over EFCA… is this a preview of the 2010 race? (It’s a Dem-leaning district, but Klein’s 2008 victory margin wasn’t impressive.)

• Votes: Also on the EFCA front, Campaign Diaries has an impressively thorough chart head-counting the positions staked out by all the Democratic senators (and potential GOP votes).

• Blue Dogs: After lifting their self-imposed 20%-of-the-Dem-caucus cap to expand to 51 members, the Blue Dogs are talking about growing again, to 56 members. No word on who that might be (although the door’s apparently open to Scott Murphy if he wins).

• NRSC: Roll Call is running a story today with the banner headline “McConnell Criticizes GOP for Lack of Diversity.” What’s next? “Sanders Criticizes KFC for Serving Chicken?”

New Hampshire Governor John Lynch is probably the most popular Democrat in the state, and seems like the ideal candidate to take on Senator Judd Gregg in 2010. However, today at a press conference he’s taken himself out of the running in pretty definitive fashion:

“I can tell you that although I don’t know what I’ll be doing in 2010, I’m not going to run for the United States Senate. So, that shouldn’t be a distraction as I continue to work on the budget.”

Given that Washington has seemed to be outside of Lynch’s comfort zone, however, his demurral shouldn’t be seen as too much of a surprise. Speculation will continue to focus on New Hampshire’s two Democratic representatives, Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter.

ARG (12/27-29, registered voters):

Paul Hodes (D): 40

Judd Gregg (R-inc): 47

Undecided: 13

Carol Shea-Porter (D): 35

Judd Gregg (R-inc): 54

Undecided: 11

(n=569)

ARG! takes a first look at the prospective matchups in the 2010 New Hampshire Senate race. No one has declared yet, although both of NH’s Democratic representatives have expressed some interest, and it’s not even certain whether Gregg plans to run for re-election, considering that he’s likely to race his first tough race in, well, forever.

Of the two representatives, Paul Hodes fares much better, coming within 7 points of Gregg, which is a pretty good place to be, two years out from taking on an entrenched incumbent. Carol Shea-Porter, who had a shakier 2008 re-election than Hodes, falls short by a somewhat wider margin. Although Hodes and Shea-Porter are the Dems getting the lion’s share of attention right now, it might be interesting to see a poll matchup between Gregg and popular Democratic Governor John Lynch; while Lynch seems comfortable in Concord and doesn’t seem likely to run, maybe he’d change his tune if he saw polls giving him an edge.

After taking a look (here and here, on SSP here and here) to see how our two re-elected reps grew in strength from ’06 to ’08, I thought it might be a good idea to see how they fared compared to Jeanne Shaheen, the next step up on the ticket (NH-Sen). It’s an especially interesting question with the first election behind us in many years without straight-ticket voting.

With very few exceptions (Danville, New Boston, and Rindge), both Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01) and Paul Hodes (NH-02) gained higher vote percentages than Jeanne Shaheen in towns big and small, liberal and conservative, rural and urban.

The following charts track the ten biggest percentage discrepancies between Shea-Porter/Hodes and Shaheen for all towns and cities with more than 2000 votes cast for the congressional race in 2008. For ease of use in plugging the numbers into a spreadsheet (full data available here), I chose the lists at NHPR rather than the SoS.  Any mistakes are my own.

Town	Shaheen %	CSP %	% Diff.	Votes Cast
Rye	44.2	51.4	7.2	3693
Moltnboro	36.2	41.9	5.7	2967
Greenland	50.9	54.9	4	2227
Conway	55.1	59	3.9	5020
Strafford	50.5	54.2	3.7	2310
Seabrook	45.7	49.2	3.5	3988
Portsmouth	64.7	68.1	3.4	12326
N.Hampton	46.9	49.9	3	2810
Lee	61	64	3	2486

And I’ll throw in number 11 on the list, because ManchVegas is where so many of the votes are to be found in CD1:

Town	Shaheen %	CSP %	% Diff.	Votes Cast
Manchester	52.3	55.1	2.8	46268

Now on to CD2 and Paul Hodes.  Even greater discrepancies are to be found in the western half of the state:

Town	Shaheen %	Hodes %	% Diff.	Votes Cast
Newport	50.7	59.4	8.7	2845
Littleton	49.9	57.8	7.9	2699
Claremont	56.8	64.2	7.4	5480
Henniker	52.9	59.8	6.9	2405
New London	47.3	54.2	6.9	2788
Pembroke	51.4	56.8	5.4	3580
Weare	43.4	48.7	5.3	4447
Plymouth	62.7	67.9	5.2	3457
Hanover	73.6	78.7	5.1	6912

I’m going to resist interpreting this data too closely, other than to say that it’s clear that Carol and Paul, despite being lower on the ballot, performed better than Shaheen.  There are so many ways to answer why – and some of them non-exclusionary to others – that I’m not sure what conclusions can be drawn fairly.

Factors to consider: John Sununu was arguably a tougher opponent than Jeb Bradley (NH-01), who in turn was tougher than Jennifer Horn (NH-02).  Sununu and Shea-Porter and Hodes were all incumbents.  Shaheen was on the receiving end of far the greatest deluge of negative ads, followed closely by Carol, and finally Paul.

While I have a hard time drawing conclusions about ’08 from these numbers, I will happily draw from them for 2010.  Carol and Paul, by their strong showing relative to a senate nominee with tremendous name recognition, can both point to their results as ammunition for re-election down he road or even a run at the senate.

(Crossposted from Blue Hampshire, because I like to send my geekier vote analysis posts over here to SSP.)

(From the diaries – promoted by DavidNYC)

Update (11/22): Inspired by this post, kite took a look at Senator-Elect Jeanne Shaheen’s numbers in the first district.  Turns out Carol Shea-Porter got higher vote totals than Shaheen in 52 out of 79 NH-01 towns. End Update



Carol Shea-Porter delivered a memorable line on election night, directly addressing the “fluke” meme we on Blue Hampshire have been pushing against for two years:

“How did that happen? It must have been a fluke. You didn’t mean to elect me to Congress,” she said to her exuberant supporters. “Well, the voters have spoken, and it turns out you did mean to send me to Congress.”

I’ve been spending the some time looking at two cycles worth of election returns in the Granite State (chiefly from these two sources at the SoS).  This is some of what I’ve found, with the reader caveat that I’m not a statistician or political scientist – just curious enough about Carol’s second win to poke my head under the hood to see what I can see about its nature.

My starting point was this: Shea-Porter reached a little over 51% of the vote in 2006, and a little under 52% this year. On the surface, it looked like not much had changed.

(more below the fold…)

But the devil is in the details.  This was a general election, not a mid-term. Carol had to earn the support of a whole lot more voters this time around – 176,461 now compared to 100,691 in ’06, to be exact. Moreover, there was a libertarian candidate in the race this cycle who, while not competitive to win, garnered enough of a vote percentage easily to turn this close race into plurality win instead of a majority one if it were truly a toss-up. Yet Congresswoman Shea-Porter actually gained a higher majority this time than the last, albeit narrowly, while Jeb Bradley fell a full three points down from 49% in ’06 to 46% two weeks ago.

So, what changed in two years?  First off, let’s have some fun and take a look at the towns and wards that switched winners from ’06 to ’08.  The mighty Jeb flipped two whole towns – Hart’s Location (29 votes cast) and Freedom (less than 900 votes cast).

The Congresswoman, on the other hand, flipped the following 2006 Bradley wins to her corner:

Barnstead

Laconia Ward 2

Laconia Ward 3

Laconia Ward 4 (was a tie in 2006)

Manchester Ward 6

Manchester Ward 8

Milton

North Hampton

(over 1000 total votes cast for each)

By far the most impressive swings from Jeb to Carol in terms of percentage points were in the voter-rich wards of Laconia and Manchester, as you will see below.

After the flips, I figured the best way to gauge the major shifts in the race would be to calculate all the town and ward percentages for Shea-Porter for both 2006 and 2008, subtract the former from the latter, and then take a look at those areas that were either a three percent or above gain or loss for her. I chose three as the cutoff number, figuring that anything less than that would be harder to argue against statistical noise, even in a well populated town.

First, the towns and wards where Carol Shea-Porter lost 3 or more percentage points from her 2006 totals, plus the added data of the ’08 vote percentage for her, and the sum of the total votes cast in 2008. I included that last figure so the percentages would have more context – big swings either way in sparsely populated rural towns, e.g., are likely  to be less meaningful as an indicator of anything than the same swings in the larger city wards. Finally, the color of “’08 CSP %” indicates who won that town or ward (blue for Shea-Porter, red for Bradley):

Town/Ward	’08 CSP %	’06-’08 +/-% Diff.	Total Votes Cast
South Hampton	50.00%	-12.58%	502
Hart’s Location*	44.83%	-9.72%	29
Effingham	50.00%	-5.14%	818
Deerfield	44.37%	-5.13%	2542
Portsmouth Wd.2	73.19%	-4.89%	502
Eaton	61.07%	-4.83%	280
Tamworth	55.65%	-4.77%	1567
Northwood	49.76%	-4.49%	2339
Albany	57.82%	-3.63%	422
Ossipee	45.04%	-3.41%	2136
Portsmouth Wd.5	69.02%	-3.39%	2877
Brentwood	45.71%	-3.03%	2179

* Flipped to Bradley in 2008.

Next, the towns and wards where Carol Shea-Porter exceeded her 2006 totals by three percent or more:

Town/Ward	’08 CSP %	’06-’08 +/-% Diff.	Total Votes Cast
Laconia Wd.2*	56.39%	+8.82%	1213
Manchester Wd.11	59.26%	+7.27%	2776
Somersworth Wd.1	61.04%	+6.61%	1286
Laconia Wd.3*	52.88%	+6.33%	1163
Laconia Wd.4*	55.32%	+5.32%	1184
Manchester Wd.9	56.51%	+4.46%	3911
Manchester Wd.3	62.68%	+4.22%	2886
Manchester Wd.8*	50.07%	+4.10%	4729
Manchester Wd.7	56.12%	+3.96%	3571
Somersworth Wd.5	65.01%	+3.85%	761
Manchester Wd.4	57.89%	+3.64%	3173
Rochester Wd.6	60.90%	+3.64%	1949
Manchester Wd.10	54.90%	+3.54%	3905
Center Harbor	46.87%	+3.27%	719
Milton*	52.45%	+3.13%	2227

* Flipped to Shea-Porter in 2008.

So, what broad observations can we come to based on the differences between the 2006 and 2008 Bradley – Shea-Porter races?

* Jeb’s successes were small in number, and unstrategic.  Looking at the first chart, you can throw away right off the bat the Portsmouth wards, Eaton, and Albany. They went from big landslides and wins for Carol to slightly less so. Moreover, a fair number of the others are sparsely populated and therefore less critical toward winning elections.

* Bradely, nonetheless, did score some areas that, if I were part of Team CSP, I would want to target for her next race: Effingham, Deerfield, Tamworth, Northwood, Ossipee, and Brentwood.

* The lion’s share of the larger gains made by Carol Shea-Porter from 2006 to 2008, whether resulting by design or not, were exactly where you would most want to have them to build a healthy win margin.  A look at voter-dense Manchester says it all.  Carol gained in eleven out of twelve of Manchester’s wards, in seven of them significantly so, and even stole two from Jeb’s 2006 totals. Wow!

* I don’t know what’s in Milton’s water but I want some of it.

* The breakout surprise of all this data? Without a doubt – Laconia.  Three flipped wards, and major gains made all around. Whoa! Could this have anything to do with Shea-Porter’s campaign manager, Pia Carusone, having once been an area organizer in Laconia for the Dean campaign?

* Look at the total votes cast in the second table.  Carol won a greater share of support from more densely populated areas of the state.  That is an enviable position to be in for someone who was supposed to be in the fight of her life.  In fact, I’ll go one further.  These kinds of ward to ward vote gains in voter rich zones, and in the less blue of the two districts, make me wonder whether Carol might be in one of the strongest structural positions of our incredible field of Democrats to run for even higher office.

Adding: please add what you know on the ground in your community that will help flesh out further how these numbers played out town by town.  I also plan at a later date to overlay these numbers with Obama’s and Shaheen’s to see what that might tell us too.

Research 2000 for Concord Monitor (10/17-19, likely voters, 9/22-24 in parens):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 50 (50)

John Sununu (R-inc): 43 (41)

(MoE: ±4%)

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 48 (44)

Jeb Bradley (R): 43 (43)

(MoE: ±6%)

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 49 (47)

Jennifer Horn (R): 35 (34)

(MoE: ±6%)

Things are looking pretty stable in New Hampshire in the newest round of Research 2000 polls of that state for the Concord Monitor. Probably most notable is the improvement for Carol Shea-Porter, who has posted mostly underwhelming poll numbers this cycle; however, she’s up to a five-point lead from a one-point lead last month. (With a 6% margin of error, though… each CD’s sample seems to be half of the statewide sample… anything could be going on there.)

On the Senate side, John Sununu has gained a couple points on Jeanne Shaheen, probably on the back of major advertising expenditures (he’s got a big warchest; now’s the time to spend it). He’s left with an awful lot of ground to make up over the next few weeks, though.

Obama leads McCain 50-43 at the top of the ticket. And as a bonus, I know everyone has been losing a lot of sleep worrying over the New Hampshire governor’s race; incumbent Dem John Lynch leads John Joe Kenney 60-34.

University of New Hampshire (WMUR Granite State Poll): (9/14-21, likely voters, 7-11/20 in parens)

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 48 (46)

John Sununu (R-inc): 44 (42)

(MoE: ±4.3%)

The University of New Hampshire is back with new polls, and they show a continuation of Shaheen’s four-point lead from July. The July poll was considered a bit out-of-whack at the time, but this week’s poll seems more in line with overall polling trends: still a consistent Shaheen lead (with the exception of that recent wacky Rasmussen poll), but now within the margin of error instead of out in double-digit land. Encouragingly, Sununu’s favorables are dropping, down to 44% from over 50 in July. The same sample gives McCain a 47-45 lead.

University of New Hampshire (WMUR Granite State Poll): (9/14-21, likely voters, 7-11/20 in parens)

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 42 (40)

Jeb Bradley (R): 45 (46)

Undecided 12 (14)

(MoE: ±6.2%)

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 38 (43)

Jennifer Horn (R): 26 (23)

Undecided 33 (32)

(MoE: ±6.0%)

UNH also takes a look at the two Congressional races in New Hampshire. Carol Shea-Porter continues to trail Jeb Bradley (now by 3) in the rematch of their 2006 race in NH-01. The gap has closed a bit from last time, probably as Jeb Bradley emerges from an acrimonious primary covered in mud. Shea-Porter has only a 44% favorable rating (up significantly from the previous sample), but Bradley is even worse at 36% favorable, down from nearly 50 last time, which indicates that his primary battle with John Stephen may have mortally wounded him. Shea-Porter maintains a financial edge and can count on DCCC help, but this still looks to be a close race come November.

The other freshman representative, Paul Hodes, is in much better shape in the more Dem-leaning NH-02, giving Hodes the tie-breaker in the battle of dueling internals we saw earlier this week. Hodes is up by 12, although note the huge number of undecideds in this race (which has only grown since the GOP primary was resolved).

Playing “spot the methodological weaknesses in the UNH poll” has become a favorite netroots pastime, and there are a few things to point out: each of the Congressional samples is only half of the statewide sample, leaving them with sample sizes of only 252 and 271, and enormous 6% MoEs. In addition, these samples seem especially heavy on the Republicans (although New Hampshire may be one state where old school New England Republicans retain their registration even as they increasingly vote Democratic as the national GOP devolves into Theocon Central). This is especially glaring in the 2nd District, where the sample includes 60 Democrats and 91 Republicans (50% more).

cross-posted at Blue Hampshire

On Sunday I attended a Vets BBQ at the Sweeney VFW post in Manchester, NH to support the re-election of Carol-Shea Porter (D-NH) to the US Congress from the first district. An overflow crowd, they even ran out of hamburgers, greeted CSP and her guest in NH that day, Congressman Chet Edwards (D-TX) from the 17th district which includes the village of Crawford which is currently missing the idiot that is currently and woefully living in the White House, most woefully.

The two have become fast friends in DC as Congressman Edwards, Carol’s new BFF down there, is the chairman of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction and VA (MILCON/VA). He came to NH to see what’s up first hand. He was impressed with the turnout at the event, so was I.

Carol’s remarks were brief and focused on the outrage that NH is currently the only state in America that does not have a full service VA hospital. Follow me below the fold for all the remarks because as Carol told us all in attendance: “There is no excuse.”

Bill Duncan’s first hand account including a lot more specifics about Carol and Edwards’s efforts in the state can be seen here: Veterans Turn Out for Carol Shea-Porter.

Edwards begins his introduction of Carol with a great anecdote which contains a really harsh and stark truth about the business of politics, bonus points to the Congressman. As I said earlier many people showed up for the BBQ. That surprised me especially on such a beautiful day when there have been many, many wash-out weekends this summer. I also noticed that it wasn’t the typical VFW crowd you would expect either. People were there from a variety of age groups, some brought their kids and many were younger. We even had an RFK grandson in attendance.

Video: Carol Shea-Porter in Manchester (8:03)

Edwards:

And I want to just say that one person can make a difference. I carry a very heavy burden on my life, I want you to know that when I was 26 years old, I had the gall to run against a former economics professor of mine for Congress …

I lost by 115 votes to a guy named Phil Gramm. I don’t want you to have the burden that I’ve felt since 1978. At least my credibility ought to be good because everything I said about him turned out to be true … My point is this, if I had had a meeting like this on a Sunday afternoon like this and this many people had gotten one extra person to go to the polls Phil Gramm ladder never would have become law.

No argument there, Congressman Edwards. There is certainly an urgency in every race from Obama on down in this cycle, but the down ballot races that don’t get the attention they deserve may very well be close all across the country. In 2006, Carol was swept into office against incumbent Jeb Bradley on the crest of a throw the bums out mentality. But this year Democrats all over the map have to hold those seats and they have to hold these seats on the record. It’s only been a couple of years and the record is not as strong and clear as it could be with Bush and the Senate filibuster blocking just about everything that Democrats were sent to Washington to do. It’s not going to be a tidal wave in this district this time around. And that could be true all over the country.

Carol then took to the mic:

When I first got to DC you know I realized that the Veteran’s Hospital has been closed for years now as a full service hospital. Nobody did anything about, why not? What do I have to do to bring it back? So I took a look down the list and said, “who do I have to talk to?” And I found Chet. And I ran up to Chet and said, “Chet, you are my new best friend.” He’s your best friend too, because he works very, very hard for Veterans.

He’s worked with me, he’s come to see what we’re talking about. We’ve met with the veterans and he’s going to carry that story back to Washington.

There’s just no excuse for not having either a full service hospital or equivalent care in your own community. (applause)

There’s also no excuse that our Congressmen and Senators knew this and stayed silent. There’s just no excuse…

If you signed up to serve your country from NH why shouldn’t you receive the same benefits as someone from Massachusetts? Or Connecticut? Or from Iowa? What wrong with us? We deserve the same treatment. (applause)

Carol tells us that it isn’t solely nobility that motivates her to act like a “squeaky wheel” on this issue in DC. No, she’s got “a dog in this fight too,” as a former military spouse she is directly affected by this outrage and judging from the remarks on Sunday Carol is personally invested in the well being of veterans around the state and in her district.

Far beyond the hot-button issue of the VA and health care in NH Carol talks about why this fight is so important to all the citizens of this country.

I checked with my husband and when he signed his papers, he didn’t check whether he was a republican or a Democrat. He was an American going to serve his country.

So we cannot discriminate and we cannot allow one party to hold back on treatment, opportunity and honoring commitments to the veterans. We have to serve each other.

Carol brings home the point that commitments made long ago effect the nation as a whole today. As a member of the Armed Services committee in the Congress she knows that America faces plenty of threats all over the globe today. She tells us that the new generation coming up judges the quality of care against the desire to serve. And I really agree with that statement.

We don’t rely on a draft to staff our armed forces today. We rely on a professional, volunteer army to meet our needs. After 8 years of George Bush, the recent Walter Reed scandal, a generation of cutbacks in services across the boards and the heightened state of readiness required to meet our current needs in America today, no issue is more symbolic of our government’s intention to honor those commitments made to every one that served than veteran’s health care and the sorry state of the VA in NH today.

We need them … We need people to sign-up for the Armed services. We need them to look at how we treat our veterans and say, “Yes. I trust America that should I be wounded or should I be killed they’ll take care of my family and they will take care of me. They won’t break that sacred promise.”

And so the young are looking to see what we do right now and if we truly honor our commitments.

pictured are Carol and Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) in Kuwait

The answer here from me is: Yes we do. We must … Keep up the good work and we will make sure that veterans today and tomorrow have what we promised them yesterday. Thank you very much.

Carol then saved the best for last after wishing Mike Lopez a Happy Birthday and thanking Jim Craig (“one class act”) for emceeing the event. When talking about the importance of sending Bob Bruce to the governor’s counsel she says:

We have someone who is running for executive counsel, Bob Bruce, who also comes from the people. And so I appreciate you looking at his record and his concern for all of us. His slogan goes along the line of “send your neighbor.” And that’s the best thing you could do. Send one of us. Fill all of these positions with somebody that knows your story because we are one of you.

You know my slogan: Running for the rest of us. Thank you for the honor of serving you in Washington. And I would ask that you send Democrats up and down the ticket because it’s not the fact that we’re Democrats. It’s that we’re holding the American agenda right now. We’re the party that has come together to say that we have to save the middle-class and fix the country … Democrats and other people will be very well served by Democrats in Washington and in NH.

The lighting sucked at the VFW so my apologies for the poor quality of the video and pics in this diary, but the audio is clear as a bell and the remarks were pretty sweet. I hope you enjoyed the show.

So where is the urgency to support a great candidate like Carol Shea-Porter in her re-election bid this year? Well may you ask.

While the Obama race is vital to the future of the country so too are the down ballot races that will determine the climate and ultimately the success President Obama can expect once he gets sworn into office. NH-01 has been targeted as a Republican pick-up by Freedom Watch who I predict will be the new swift-boaters in this cycle. They’ve already been running ads smearing Carol’s position on offshore oil drilling and Brian Larsen from PoliticsNH.com told me on Sunday that they’ve just announced their third ad buy in the state targeting both Carol and Paul Hodes. By no means is Carol’s re-election to the Congress going to be a slam dunk and in preparation for my “re-emersion” into NH politics I came across a very disturbing website that I think holds the playbook for the ugliness that we may see unfold in NH’s first district in the coming weeks.

Democrats are far outstripping Republican fundraising efforts from the top to bottom all over the country with some exceptions and nowhere is a disturbing trend more apparent than in down ballot races like Carol’s.

“There’s a good chance 527 groups will dominate Republican rescue efforts in congressional races this year,” said David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report.”

“It’s clear the NRCC is outsourcing their attacks to right-wing smear organizations. We have been anticipating this activity for months and have been preparing our candidates with the tools they need to respond effectively,” said DCCC spokesman Doug Thornell.

source

With the Democrats holding a money advantage, the GOP’s best hope may be that independent outside groups like Freedom’s Watch throw a lot of money into congressional races. As of now, however, the Democrats look to pick up significant numbers of additional seats.

source

And just in time I found a website called The Real CSP, link withheld for obvious reasons. I don’t know who or what really is behind this scum that passes for political education but let’s just look at one egregious example. Under the heading “Deserting out Troops” the website claims: “Shea-Porter put partisan politics above the needs of troops and commanders on the ground by voting for a Democrat-sponsored bill mandating extension of troop deployments overseas. (House Roll Call 795)“

But if you look at govtracks.us for HR 3159 you’ll see a summary from Project Vote Smart and that CSP was a co-sponsor of the bill that provides the following:

• Mandates that before a member of the regular armed forces be redeployed to Iraq, he or she must be given a period of rest at least as long as the duration of his or her most recent deployment [Sec. 2 (a)].
• Mandates that before a member of the armed forces reserve be redeployed to Iraq, he or she must be given a period of rest at least three times as long as the duration of his or her most recent deployment [Sec. 2 (b)].
• Exempts special operations forces and forces used to facilitate deployments [Sec. 2 (c)].
• Allows the President to waive the rest period requirements in order to meet a threat to national security if the President certifies the necessity of the deployment to Congress within 30 days [Sec. 2 (d)].
• Allows the rest requirement to be waived for members of the Armed Forces who voluntarily request mobilization [Sec. 2 (e)].

So she votes for passage of the HR 3159 on the next vote Roll Call 796, unlike 190 Republicans in the Congress, and the website/smear campaign would lead you to believe that she does not support the bill, which she voted for and co-sponsored. Ya know, that kind of “deserting the troops” Unreal. All rightey, looks like we’ve got our work cut out for us.

DownwithTyrrany also reports that Wal-Mart is targeting Carol in her race.

But you’re not going to find Carol Shea-Porter on the lists of congressmembers who take special interests money and then vote for them instead of for her constituents. Her predecessor, Jeb Bradley, always did– and now those same big special interests are back shoveling money into his campaign, trying to help him reclaim his old– their old– seat. Carol’s voting record is clear as a bell; she votes in the interests of her constituents. Period. She doesn’t have millions of dollars in corporate money hanging over her head as an incentive– or a threat– to vote for special deals for corporations.

This election in NH’s first is not going to be any kind of pretty. Without credible media voices debunking these kinds of scurrilous charges, attack ads and misleading ad campaigns to put in kindly can sway voters. Mud sticks, especially if you throw enough of it.

We hold the American agenda in this election and Carol holds it everyday for the people of NH’s first. Get out there to support a great public servant and in so doing we’ll be supporting each other.

To donate to Carol’s re-election campaign click here, but don’t bother if you’re a DC lobbyist – she doesn’t take your money.

Also consider volunteering or to sign-up for the excellent news letter try the main website. The intro video is set for auto-play.

It’s going to get tres not jolie out there before this one is over, kids. So get out there. She needs you now. We need each other now – more than ever.

This diary is another in the continuing guerrilla vlogger series. I’m not associated with the campaign in any way shape or form and most importantly I speak only for myself when blogging. I do all these vlogs as a citizen journalist, as in I’m not paid. I do everything with an ordinary mini-DV, a PC, Movie Maker and free tools available on the web. Thanks for reading.