Tag: LA-Gov

That’s the question that has been on my mind since having these dizzying special election results seared into my cortex last weekend:

On Saturday, February 24, there were three special elections for vacancies in the Louisiana House of Representatives.  All three seats were previously held by Democrats, and Democrats easily held on to two of these seats by capturing both run-off slots.  This was no surprise, as both of these retained seats were African-American majority districts.  The other seat, HD01, however, was not a sure thing for Democrats.  Louisianagirl, in her coverage last weekend, wrote:

Although it was previously held by a Democrat named Roy “Hoppy” Hopkins, who recently died of cancer, this open seat can be won by either party.  Indeed, the district has a tendency to vote for Republicans in federal races: John Kerry only received 32.28% of the vote in 2004; Kathleen Blanco received 44.15% of the vote in 2003; and Mary Landrieu received approximately 45.34% of the vote in 2002.  A populist Democrat who understand agricultural and infrastructural issues can win in this district that includes rural Caddo and Bossier Parishes, but it will be a difficult seat for Democrats to hold in November.

And here’s what she had to say about what was at stake:

LA-HD1 is what I consider to be a bellwether race.  If we hold it, we will hold the Louisiana House in November.  If we lose it, then we need to prepare ourselves for the fight of our political lives in November.  Watch the returns of this race, as this race will determine how hard Louisiana Democrats will have to fight if they want to hold on to their majorities in the state legislature.

So let’s put it all on the table: at a combined 27% of the vote, the two Democratic candidates in this special election did even worse than John Kerry’s performance in the district in 2004.  When the locals can’t break Kerry’s benchmark, you know that we’ve written a new definition for “rock bottom” in Louisiana.

So what happened?  By the looks of it, Republicans showed up ready to wrestle this seat to the ground, and Democrats simply did not.  Their candidate, “Jim” Morris, as a Caddo Parish Commissioner, had a high profile in the local government, while Hollier was something of an unknown.  Based on his experience alone, Morris easily snatched up the endorsement of the Shreveport Times, and the rest is written on the wall.  By not putting forth a proven candidate and funneling the appropriate resources to this race, the Louisiana Democratic Party is sending signals of apathy and resignation, rather than the do-or-die, balls-to-the-wall ethos that they will need to exhibit in order to come out of 2007 alive.

Having a drag like Gov. Kathleen Blanco at the top of the ticket this year would be bad enough for the Democratic majorities in the state legislature, but Louisiana Democrats will have to deal with another vulnerability: term limits.  As louisianagirl wrote in her authoritative diary on the subject, half of the 60 incumbent Democrats in the Louisiana House will face mandatory retirement after this year.  With only 53 seats needed to obtain control of the House, that leaves a lot of room for an aggressive, district-by-district challenge by a renewed Louisiana GOP in coordination with a strong top of the ticket challenge to Gov. Blanco.

The stakes of this are fairly high.  Without friendly control of the LA legislature, Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon could see his U.S. House district, and his job security, go up in smoke due to creative redistricting by state Republicans.  On the other hand, if Democrats controlled the redistricting levers, Louisiana’s congressional delegation will almost assuredly lose at least one Republican member of the House in 2012, after the census readjusts the state’s representation to account for population loss.

Additionally, how does ceding certain “swing” districts to the Republicans bode for Democrats’ ability to retain the offices of Gov. Kathleen Blanco and Sen. Mary Landrieu?  Not well, I would argue.

If the Louisiana Democratic Party is serious about staying a relevant political force in the state after November, it has to aggressively defend these seats.  With the disturbing revelation that our one potential savior at the top of the ballot, former Senator John Breaux, is likely ineligible to run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination after he registered to vote in Maryland after he retired in 2005, this defense is all the more crucial.  Just as the New York GOP put everything into holding the State Senate in a wave year, the Louisiana Democratic Party should be preparing something similar for the legislature.

The Louisiana Democratic Party has a shot at redemption coming up very quickly–the March 10th special election for the 94th House District. Louisianagirl contends that, with candidate Deborah Langhoff at the helm, this is a legitimate pick-up opportunity for Team Blue–one of only a precious few that Louisiana Democrats will see during this cycle.  Is the Louisiana Democratic Party doing all that it can to help her out?  Given what pitiful lengths they went to keep the 1st District competitive, I almost dread to hear the answer.

Race Tracker: LA-Gov | LA-Sen | LA-03

I’ve been nursing a nasty case of bronchitis this week, so I think that I’m only going to have energy to do a round-up style post this evening.  Let’s hit the ground running:

–NY-20: Recently-ousted ex-Rep. John Sweeney is apparently mulling a rematch against Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand.  I can only pray that the local GOP is foolish and/or desperate enough to let this thug try again. (Hat tip to the Political Wire.)
–TN-Sen: Dailykos diarist Sidof79 has an excellent rundown of possible competitors against Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander next year, from Harold Ford, Jr. to Tim McGraw.
–NC-Sen: In a hypothetical election match-up, Sen. Elizabeth Dole beats Democratic Rep. Bob Etheridge by a 45-30 margin, according to a new poll by Public Policy Polling.  That’s not especially strong.  (Hat-tips to Blue South and Senate 2008 Guru.)
–LA-Gov: According to the Cook Political Report, former Democratic Sen. John Breaux is seriously considering running for Governor this year.  Breaux’s Senate politics relied heavily on backroom, floor-crossing “dealmaking”, but I’d be content to let him have a try at this.  He’s our best shot at keeping the Louisiana Gubernatorial office in the Blue column.
–MI-07: The locals blast Republican Tim Walberg for supporting escalation in Iraq.

From the Cook Political Report (top item on front page):

Former Democratic Sen. John Breaux is seriously considering a bid for Governor of Louisiana.  John Maginnis, editor of the highly regarded Louisiana Political Fax Weekly, initially reported the news this morning, and the Cook Political Report has independently verified that it is true.  Apparently Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco has privately indicated a willingness to step aside if Breaux, or possibly another Democrat, such as Rep. Charlie Melancon, would run instead.

None of this is a done deal, but Breaux is serious, and his candidacy would change the face of the race for Democrats.

Breaux is certainly no favorite of mine – indeed, it’s probably hard for most movement progressives to feel too warmly about him. However, it’s not as though I carry a torch for Blanco, and his entrance into this race would be an immediate game-changer. He’d transform this from an uphill battle to a likely hold, and if he won a second term, he’d be around for redistricting. (LA is a state where, if we’re willing to play hardball, we can pick up at least a seat or two with friendlier lines.)

If this is true, this is big.

UPDATE: Much more here from LouisianaGirl.

P.S. The Race Tracker Wiki could use some updating.

Louisiana Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell has indicated he plans to challenge Gov. Kathleen Blanco for the Democratic nomination for governor. Campbell is a farmer and businessman who served 27 years in the Louisiana Senate before being elected Public Service Commission in 2002 to represent the North Louisiana district of 24 parishes with over 1 million people. He has been a frequent critic of corporate power, corruption, and special interests and will run a populist style campaign in a state that has a long tradition of electing populist politicians.

http://bluesunbelt.c…

From the Political Wire:

The AP: “Call it a sign of the times for Louisiana’s embattled governor: A chance to dine with Gov. Kathleen Blanco fetched a winning bid of $1 at a recent fundraising auction hosted by a group of business leaders.”

I’ll lay it all down on the table: with one of the worst approval ratings for Governors (a 58% disapproval rating), and a serious challenge from Rep. Bobby Jindal (R) on its way for 2007, Gov. Blanco should seriously be considering facing the music and clearing the field for someone else to fight this one.  I’m not quite convinced that Democrats can hold this seat either way, but at least with Blanco off the ticket, the loss wouldn’t be quite as embarrassing.

Update: Okay, okay–I missed the part where “bidding abruptly closed” after the opening bid was accepted, shutting out other bidders.  What kind of nastiness is that?  But I still stand by the assertion that Blanco is DOA if she stays on for next November’s election.  She should bow out to save face.

(Cross posted on Daily Kos)

Since Election Day, all of the election-related talk has naturally been about 2008, with a few Kissell, Jennings, and Jefferson stories sprinkled in between them. But I say wait a cotton pickin’ minute because we have some southern gubernatorial races to deal with in 2007. Below the fold, I’ll try and go through some background on the three races, the likely contenders, and our chances. I am a Yankee and live in none of the three states, so take my analyses with the required grain of salt.

Mississippi

Date of election:
November 6, 2006

Likely Republican Nominee:
Incumbent Haley Barbour

Possible Democratic Candidates:
Wayne Dowdy – Former Congressman and current head of the Mississippi Democratic Party
James Graves – Member of the Mississippi Supreme Court
Ray Mabus – Former governor, 1988-1992, and former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia
Mike Moore – Former Attorney General, 1988-2004
Ronnie Musgrove – Former governor, 2000-2004, defeated in 2003 by Barbour in a close election

Governor’s Approval Rating:
59%

Analysis:
Probably will be the least competitive of the three gubernatorial races, but that’s not to say it can’t get interesting.  The only way, in my opinion, this race is winnable is if Musgrave or Moore throw their respective hats in the ring.  Moore is apparently well-liked in the state for most notably taking on tobacco companies and getting them to reimburse the state for treating patients of smoke-related illnesses.  Musgrove, being a recent former governor, obviously has the name recognition to make the race potentially competitive.  He did however lose in 2003 to Barbour, so quite a few things would have to go right for him to win again in this deep-red state.

No matter who runs however, they face a huge uphill battle facing a fairly popular Republican governor in a Republican state.

Louisiana

Date of election:
October 20, 2007 & November 17, 2007 (if necessary)

Likely Democratic Nominee:
Incumbent Kathleen Blanco

Possible Republican Candidates:
Bobby Jindal – U.S. Congressman for Louisiana’s 1st congressional district
John Georges – CEO of several large Louisiana based businesses
Walter Boasso – State Senator from Arabi

Governor’s Approval Rating:
39%

Analysis:
Blanco may face a strong challenge from Mitch Landrieu, the current Lieutenant Governor, if he decides to enter the race, which some local pundits expect him to do.  Former Senator John Breaux has been mentioned as another candidate, but has said he would not enter if Blanco runs for re-election, which she has stated she intends to do.  Although she must be considered the favorite among Democrats, a strong challenge from Landrieu would be devastating to her chances as he’ll sifend much needed money from her and potentially cost her an outright victory or, at the least, might allow a Republican into the run-off election.

Bobby Jindal has already announced he will run against Blanco, and from what I can tell, he is already considered the frontrunner in the race.  A poll of 600 people in late October showed Jindal with 52% to Blanco’s 20%.  Landrieu is polling at 9%.  That being said, a lot can happen between Oct 2006 and Oct 2007, but it seems like Blanco has an uphill battle here – a large part of which has to be contributed to the exodus of African-American New Orleans residents leaving the state.  An unpopular Democratic governor in a Republican state is not a good thing.  Throw in that a large part of her base is gone, and it’s hard to see Blanco winning re-election.  One X-factor that’s in her favor is that Jindal is not very battle-tested in that he has won every election by a landslide since taking office.

The other two potential Republicans would not be very significant to the race if they entered.

Note: Louisiana has a run-off election system where if one candidate does not take more than 50% of the vote on Primary Day, another election with the top two finishers is held.

Kentucky

Date of election:
November 6, 2006

Likely Republican Nominee:
Incumbent Ernie Fletcher

Possible Democratic Candidates:
John Y. Brown III – Former Kentucky Secretary of State; son of former Governor of Kentucky John Y. Brown, Jr.
Julian Carroll – Member of the Kentucky State Senate; former Governor of Kentucky, 1974-1979; former Speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives
Ben Chandler – Representative from Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District
Martha Layne Collins – Former Governor of Kentucky, 1983-1987
Brereton Jones – former Governor of Kentucky, 1991-1995
Greg Stumbo – Attorney General of Kentucky
Otis Hensley, Jr – Private contractor

Governor’s Approval Rating:
35%

Analysis:
This is probably the most interesting of the races to watch in 2007, with a whole slew of Democratic heavy-hitters lined up to take on the very corrupt Fletcher.  The only Democrat who has announced his candidacy thus far is Hensley (who received 3% of the vote in the 2003 Democratic primary), but as you can see, there are a lot of big names that are rumored to jump into this race.

On the surface – which is about the only place I’m capable of making judgements from – there doesn’t seem to be the one or two stand-out candidates that would make a formidable challenger like there is in Mississippi and Louisiana.  Chandler seems like he would make a very formidable candidate, and his seat would not be at-risk as it is heavily Democratic.  You probably can’t go wrong with a former governor – which there seems to be a plethora of on the Democratic side – either.  Perhaps some Kentucky Swing Staters can shed some light on this race.  One thing I do know, however, is that Fletcher is not liked and will face an uphill battle no matter who he faces.