Tag: Chris Christie

It’s NJ, so I question the polling, as always, but. . .

While few New Jersey voters know much about him, former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, a Republican challenger, leads Democratic incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine 44 – 38 percent in this year’s Governor’s race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This reverses a 42 – 36 percent Gov. Corzine lead in a November 19 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In this latest survey, Democrats support Corzine 72 – 10 percent while Christie leads 86 – 7 percent among Republicans and 49 – 24 percent among independent voters. Men back the Republican 51 – 32 percent while women go Democratic 42 – 38 percent. Black voters back Corzine 68 – 9 percent while white voters back Christie 52 – 32 percent.

As far as I can tell, Corzine hasn’t started his TV blast on broadcast yet (it would have to be on NYC and PHL networks), so I’m starting to wonder if he’s considering backing out entirely. Maybe this would be an easier race for a fresh Democrat?

Rasmussen (1/13, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 40

Chris Christie (R): 42

Other: 5

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±4%)

I remain convinced that this race is not like the last however many statewide races in New Jersey, where a not especially well-liked Dem beat a much less likable Republican. Perhaps Corzine can be saved by his money and Obama and Biden campaigning for him. Perhaps.

And maybe Christie will sputter once he hits the trail in earnest – this is his first real run for office, apart from an election some years ago as a Morris County freeholder. (A “freeholder” is New Jersey’s term for a county legislator.) Then again, Christie Whitman’s entire elective experience before beating Jim Florio in 1993? Somerset County freeholder.

UPDATE: Another poll, this one from Monmouth University (1/12-14, registered voters, no trendlines):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 38

Chris Christie (R): 36

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 45

Steve Lonegan (R): 29

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 41

Rick Merkt (R): 27

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 44

Brian Levine (R): 27

(MoE: ±4.8%)

Levine (whom we did not canvass in our look at FDU’s recent poll) is the supposedly moderate Republican mayor of Franklin Twp., a largely Democratic township of about 50,000 people in wealthy Somserset County, located in north-central Jersey. I don’t believe Levine has formally declared yet, but he has formed an exploratory committee.

Quinnipiac (11/13-17, registered voters):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 42

Christopher Christie (R): 36

(MoE: ±2.2%)

Oh no!!! Look how close the New Jersey governor’s race is! I sure hope the Republican Governors’ Association doesn’t pour millions and millions of dollars into this race in order to push their super-strong candidate over the finish line! [/wink]

In all seriousness, Chris Christie, the U.S. Attorney for New Jersey, would be a good recruit for the Republicans (he isn’t an announced candidate, but is widely mentioned as the leading GOP contender); Christie has made a name for himself in local media by cutting a swath through corrupt Jersey politicians from both sides of the aisle. Coupled with mediocre favorables for Corzine (43 approve/46 disapprove in the same sample, with 51% saying he does not deserve to be re-elected), this might give Democrats some pause… except in the context of how verbose New Jerseyites are in expressing their contempt for their elected officials, and the rate at which New Jersey Democratic officeholders tend to overperform their early polls, those numbers put Corzine on track toward a convincing victory next year.

In the midst of more pressing political developments, a small snippet in a Reuters article caught my attention today; among the names mentioned as potential candidates for Treasury Secretary in an Obama administration, New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine's name stuck out.  As we all know, Corzine has years of expertise in the financial world, having led Goldman Sachs before embarking upon his political career, first as a U.S. Senator, and now as Governor.  Frankly, I think he'd be an excellent Treasury Secretary . . . which opens up a slew of possibilities and questions in the horserace of New Jersey politics.

If Corzine ascends to the Cabinet, State Senate President Richard Codey will take over as Acting Governor for the fourth time (he took over when Christine Todd Whitman became the head of the EPA during Bush's first term, when James McGreevey stepped down amidst scandal in 2004, and when Corzine was hospitalized after a severe car accident last year).  Codey is probably the most popular politician in the state; we Jerseyfolk are known to badmouth our politicians and rate them poorly, even as we keep re-electing them, but Dick Codey stands out as the one pol with favorable ratings.   I would venture a guess that an overwhelming majority of voters in the state would be glad to actually elect him as Governor, after he would hypothetically serve out the remainder of Corzine's term.

And, frankly, that's a good thing, what with Chris Christie waiting in the wings on the GOP side, ready to take down a less popular Democratic candidate in the gubernatorial race.   Of course, Codey's name has also been floated out as a possible Senate candidate down the road, if, for example, Lautenberg decides that this coming term will be his last before retiring.  With Codey safely in the Governor's seat, the door would be wide open for such progressives as Congressmen Rush Holt and Frank Pallone, and perhaps even Newark Mayor Cory Booker.  Any one of them could keep the Senate seat safely in Democratic hands (and probably fend off the requisite primary challenge from Rob Andrews).  All of them are young, and could conceivably hold the seat for many years.

What I just outlined was the best case scenario: Treasury Secretary Corzine, Governor Codey, and, eventually, Senator Holt, Pallone, or Booker.  Will the stars align as such?  Discuss away!