Tag: FL-Sen

• PA-Sen: Democratic internal pollsters Garin-Hart-Yang, at the behest of the DSCC, took a look at the possible Pennsylvania Senate primary between Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak. There’s no information about the dates or the MoE, but it shows Specter beating Sestak 56-16 (with 16% undecided), not much different from R2K‘s 56-11 a few weeks ago. This falls against a backdrop of coalescing conventional wisdom that Specter has, after a rocky first week, settled down into reliable Dem-ness (although Campaign Diairies offers an effective rebuttal of that idea).

• The Corrections: Two things have already changed since yesterday’s digest: Suzanne Haik Terrell, suddenly rumored to be ready to primary David Vitter, backed down and endorsed Vitter. And in California, Dianne Feinstein walked back comments about running for Governor, saying it’s “very unlikely” and that she’s tired of being asked about it.

• Senate: PPP put together a handy scorecard of all the approval ratings for Senators they’ve polled so far this year. Amy Klobuchar is tops, at 62/25, followed by Tom Coburn and Kay Bailey Hutchison. The bottom 3? Jim Bunning, Mel Martinez, and Roland Burris (at 17/62). The only other Dems in net-negative territory are the Colorado 2, Mark Udall and Michael Bennet (and that’s from that widely-poo-pooed Colorado sample).

• FL-Sen: Rep. Kendrick Meek just got two endorsements as he and state Sen. Dan Gelber battle for supremacy in their shared south Florida stomping grounds: Broward County Mayor Stacey Ritter and West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel. (Of course, Gelber may shortly be in the AG’s race instead, so this all may be moot.)

• FL-16: Speaking of the Florida AG’s race, the DCCC has a top contender in mind for the 16th: state Sen. Dave Aronberg (who instead seems likely to square off with Gelber, and 2006 gov candidate Rod Smith, in the AG’s race). Aronberg’s seat is up in 2012, and wouldn’t have to give up his Senate seat to go for FL-16, although state law would require him to give it up to run for statewide office. The DCCC is talking to St. Lucie County Commissioner Chris Craft as a backup plan.

• MS-01: Nobody’s exactly sure what “national pundits” the rumors came from, but Rep. Travis Childers quickly quashed suggestions in a recent interview that he might jump to the GOP (and the deep minority) to have an easier go in the 2010 election. (What is this, the 90s?) “Absolutely not,” he said. “I’m a Southern Democrat – I vote what’s best for Mississippi.”

Mason Dixon (PDF) for Ron Sachs Communications (5/14-18, registered voters for general, likely voters for primaries, April 2009 in parens).

Senate primary matchups:

Kendrick Meek (D): 26

Dan Gelber (D): 16

Undecided: 58

Charlie Crist (R): 53

Marco Rubio (R): 18

Undecided: 29

(MoE: ±6%)

Senate general election matchups:

Kendrick Meek (D): 24

Charlie Crist (R): 55

Undecided: 21

Dan Gelber (D): 22

Charlie Crist (R): 57

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4%)

Governor primary matchups:

Jeb Bush (R): 64

Bill McCollum (R): 13

Charles Bronson (R): 2

Undecided: 21

Bill McCollum (R): 39

Charles Bronson (R): 12

Undecided: 49

(MoE: ±6%)

Governor general election matchups:

Alex Sink (D): 34 (35)

Bill McCollum (R): 40 (36)

Undecided: 26 (29)

Alex Sink (D): 37

Charles Bronson (R): 29

Undecided: 34

Alex Sink (D): 34

Jeb Bush (R): 50

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±4%)

The poll sample was 43D, 38R and 19I. I’m including the results of an early April Mason-Dixon poll as a trendline for the Sink-McCollum matchup, even though it was taken for a different client – the question wording was identical, and the sample size very similar.

• IL-Sen: Tempted by Lisa Madigan’s titanic poll numbers against all comers, and her public statement of reconsidering the Senate race, the DSCC has started actively courting Madigan to get into the Senate race. This news comes from Madigan herself, who still maintains that her main focus is the governor’s race (but, if you read the fine print, seems to be firing warning shots across Chris Kennedy’s bow to keep him from jumping into the Senate race). Madigan’s interest can’t be good news for Alexi Giannoulias, especially as concerns over his handling of the state college savings program are taking a bit of the bloom off his rose.

• FL-Sen: Movement conservatives are tying themselves in knots trying to decide how to react to apostate Charlie Crist’s entry into the Senate race in Florida. The Club for Growth gave a tepid reaction, saying that Crist can still redeem himself by opposing the tax hikes proposed in the new state budget. On the other hand, Grover Norquist, the CfG’s patron saint, sounded a note of realpolitik, saying that Crist may be the best candidate “in Florida.” The conservative blogosphere, however, isn’t giving an inch, trying to organize a boycott on giving funds to the NRSC after John Cornyn weighed in on Crist’s behalf.

• MN-Sen: Norm Coleman is getting buried under legal bills, and not all of them are related to his tiresome contesting of Al Franken’s election. He just requested for FEC permission to start tapping his campaign funds for defense attorney fees related to allegations that sketchy Coleman benefactor Nasser Kazeminy was funneling payouts to Coleman through Coleman’s wife. Would GOP donors be willing to keep funding Coleman if they knew their donations were going to his defense attorneys and not the futile Franken fight? That hasn’t stopped Coleman’s Senate friends from continuing to solicit donations for him, as compiled in this video.

• MO-Sen: Rep. Roy Blunt pulled down a couple of expected but important endorsements in his quest to become Missouri’s next Senator: Rep. Jo Ann Emerson, the last member of Missouri’s House Republicans to get behind him, and Sen. Kit Bond, whose seat Blunt is looking to fill.

• OH-15: Ohio voters may get the chance to add even more Steves to their House delegation. Former GOP state Sen. Steve Stivers, who narrowly lost the open seat race in OH-15 to Mary Jo Kilroy last year, is contemplating another shot at the race, with lots of urging from John Boehner. (Ex-Rep. Steve Chabot is already committed to a rematch against Rep. Steve Driehaus in nearby OH-01.)

• SC-02: Speaking of rematches, backbench GOP Rep. Joe Wilson will have to face off again versus Iraq vet Rob Miller, who held Wilson to a surprising 54-46 margin in 2008 without DCCC help. Miller should be able to count on a higher-profile run this time.

• Mayors: City councilor Jim Suttle squeaked past Republican Hal Daub (former mayor and Representative) to hold the open Omaha mayor’s seat for Democrats. (The position is officially nonpartisan, but the race was fought along clearly partisan lines, which favored Suttle as Democrats hold a 44-33 registration edge within the city.) Suttle won by 1,500 votes, by a 51-49 margin.

Is state Sen. Dan Gelber considering bailing on the Democratic primary for Senate now that uber-popular Gov. Charlie Crist has made his candidacy official? The St. Pete Times has a teaser:

Certainly a lot of Florida Democrats want to avoid divisive primaries and Dan Gelber would be a natural candidate for attorney general, but the Miami Beach Democrat says he remains a U.S. Senate candidate, for now.

“I’m not shutting any doors,” he said about an A.G. run, which unlike the US Senate, would require him to resign his state senate job.

If Gelber, himself a former federal prosecutor, decides to run for state attorney general instead, he will likely face a competitive primary. Dave Aronberg, one of Gelber’s caucus-mates, says that he will run for the job if incumbent AG Bill McCollum (R) runs for Governor, which seems likely.

UPDATE: Perhaps surprisingly, Dem Rep. Ron Klein says that he’s not shutting any doors, either, on a Senate run.

A few months ago, this possibility seemed shocking, and nothing if not remote. But now it’s happened:

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist announced Tuesday morning he will run for U.S. Senate.

On his Twitter page, Crist wrote, “After thoughtful consideration with my wife Carole, I have decided to run for the U.S. Senate.”

Twitter – how cute. Quite unusually (but you can understand the motivation), John Cornyn and the NRSC instantly endorsed Crist. Conservative belle du jour Marco Rubio fired right back (also on Twitter! how savvy): “Disappointed GOP senate comm endorses Crist on day 1. Remember that reform must always come from the outside. Status quo won’t change itself.”

Rubio also released a new attack ad (not sure if it’s airing on TV, or if it’s just web fodder) linking Obama and Crist, with a photo showing them embracing. If Crist survives the primary, this tactic might wind up doing him a favor, assuming Obama is still popular in eighteen months from now. But the Republican contest ought to be a lot of fun no matter what.

In any event, with polling showing Crist far ahead in the GOP primary, the Swing State Project is changing its rating on FL-Sen from Tossup to Likely R – for now. It’s still early. We also anticipate changing our rating on the FL-Gov race soon, too.

 

With Florida Gov. Charlie Crist announcing his candidacy for the U.S. Senate today, a lot of dominoes are set to fall in Florida over the coming weeks as lower-level officeholders seek to move up a rung or two on the good ol’ electoral ladder. One such drone who won’t be looking for a promotion is one Vernon G. Buchanan, according to the Bradenton Herald:

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist’s entry into the 2010 Senate race has prompted U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan to drop his senatorial aspirations and declare that he will seek re-election to his House seat instead.

“Representing Florida’s 13th district in the U.S. House is an honor and a privilege,” Buchanan said in a news release issued today. “I look forward to the opportunity to continue serving the people.”

Buchanan’s R-tilting seat likely would have hosted a competitive race without Buchanan on the ticket, but Democrats will have a tough time finding anyone of note to run against Vern now. One candidate who had been eyeing the race with the DCCC’s encouragement, state Rep. Keith Fitzgerald, recently said that he would probably not run for the seat if Buchanan didn’t scram.

Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio, who was previously mulling a Senate bid earlier in the year, now says that she won’t run for the job — or for any statewide post in 2010, for that matter:

Over the past several months, I have given much thought to this and have concluded that 2010 is not the right time to pursue a statewide or national office.  My four-year term as mayor does not end until March 2011 and I believe that running both the city of Tampa and a statewide campaign at the same time over the next eighteen months would shortchange the citizens of Tampa.

With Charlie Crist all but in this race, it seems that the Democratic nomination will be left to either Dan Gelber or Kendrick Meek.

UPDATE: CNN also says that Crist is going to jump in.

Buckle up:

Gov. Charlie Crist will announce his political plans on Tuesday and it very likely means he’s running for U.S. Senate, Republican Party Chairman Jim Greer said tonight.

“Charlie Crist is going to be the next U.S. senator from Florida,” Greer told the Buzz a few minutes ago. Crist has said he would make a decision after the legislative session but the precise day was first reported this evening by The Associated Press. […]

Greer strongly indicated Crist will run for the seat being vacated by U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez. “It’s my opinion he has come to the conclusion that he needs to fight for Floridians on the issues coming out of Washington, D.C., and he needs to be there first-hand,” Greer said.

If Crist does indeed go for the Senate seat, as it seems likely, the ripple effect in Florida politics will be massive — and one that could give Democrats a decent shot at picking up a pair of open statewide seats (Governor and AG). Also worth watching will be the response of former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, who has already declared his candidacy for the Senate seat as the true conservative option in the GOP primary. Will Rubio follow through with the scorched-earth campaign necessary to have a shot at poisoning the well for Crist? Or will he bail in order to run for one of the aforementioned open statewide offices, instead?

UPDATE: A “source close to the governor” tells the Politico that Crist has decided to run for Senate.

Dream scenarios almost never happen in politics.  But this is America, and if you didn’t learn last year that ANYTHING can happen in American politics you might as well hang up your hat now.  That said, I’m looking at the dream scenario that could play out in Florida next year.  I should say though, I’M NOT SAYING THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN!  I hate it when folks talk with absolute certainty about what can and can’t or will and won’t happen.  What I’m saying is, this is a POSSIBILITY and if it doesn’t happen, at least we had the dream.  If it does happen though, it will be fantastic.

So, here’s the scenario:  Crist runs for Senate, loses the primary to Marco Rubio, and the Senate race and the governorship both flip to our side.

How could this happen?

First, let’s look at the Governor’s race, as I don’t think there’s much argument that, if Crist gets out, it will be competitive.

The Democratic candidate is a no brainer: Florida CFO Alex Sink, who would be an incredibly strong candidate.  The Republican frontrunner would, presumably, be Florida AG Bill McCollum, but there’s the rub.  There are a ton of Republicans that could jump in if Crist bails: Ag. Commissioner Charlie Bronson, Former House Speaker Allan Bense, Lt. Gov Jeff Kottkamp (who’s in some legal trouble), and potentially some congresscritters.  A one on one race between Sink and the eventual nominee would remain a tossup to the end, but a brutal Republican primary…that would make it just that much easier for Florida to elect it’s first female governor, and an incredibly competent and skillfull one at that.

Now, to the Senate race and the scenario that could play out.

There is a formula for Rubio to defeat Crist.  It’s not a guarantee, but here it is:

1) Solidify support from the teabaggers and their ilk.  These folks are already pissed at Crist over the stimulus and a few other policies he’s pushed and the rage in the Republican ranks is growing only louder and crazier.  All Rubio has to do is start popping up at tea parties and laying in a few punches and he’ll get some momentum going.  From there, it’s easy to see him appearing on the right wing outlets-Beck, Hannity, Limbaugh, etc. and landing major support that will help tremendously in the primary.

2) Solidify the right-wing Cuban support.  Now, let me be clear here, I fully believe that being a member of a group no way guarantees the votes of the members of said group.  I’m talking about the right-wing Cuban noise machine here that’s been making south Florida’s politics toxic for decades.  Obviously, Rubio has plenty of windows to open here, but that said this whole thing would unravel if major figures from that machine like the Diaz-Balart brothers got solidly into the Crist camp.  If Rubio wants to win though, or even if he wants to look serious, he needs to poll well among Latino (specifically Cuban) Republicans.  I have no idea where Crist stands on Cuba, but all it will take is one slip, or even the suggestion that he might vote wrong on the issue.  Hell, if he doesn’t say anything or gets mealy-mouthed he’ll lose out here.  So there’s definately an oppurtunity for Rubio.

3) Enter the CFG.  The Club for Growth is already talking up Rubio and are furious with Crist over the stimulus.  They’ve been great at bombing races with tons of money and even when they weren’t successful in the primary they’ve often doomed the chances of the more moderate winner.  They’ll definately be a major factor here.

4) Keep the momentum going.  If Rubio locks up support from these major players in the primary, generates media buzz and decent fundraising (he doesn’t have to beat Crist’s numbers, the CFG will do that.  He just has to raise a decent amount and stay competitive), and doesn’t screw up, he can build on this strategy.  If he got the NRA endorsement it would help him tremendously, especially in the panhandle.  He could also get support from religious right groups who would be all too happy to take on a closet case like Crist in the primary.  And speaking of which, there’s always the major shadow hanging over Charlie boy.  At some point his sexuality is going to catch up with him at some point, the only question is when it will happen and how bad will the explosion be.

Like I said, I’m not saying this scenario will play out.  At best I’d say it’s got a 1 in 5 chance, maybe a 1 in 4.  Hell, Rubio could turn out to be blowing smoke and just jump into the Gov. race if Crist gets in.  But if he’s not, we shouldn’t write this one off just yet.  If Rubio does win in will be narrowly, and he’ll have pushed himself so far to the right that it will be much easier to defeat him than it would be if he won without facing Crist in the primary.  If you’ve ever seen Rubio speak, you know he comes off as an ordinary guy, very conservative but still likeable-the worst kind there is.  A divisive primary though will come back to haunt him and, who knows, even if Crist were to win he might be so bloodied as to be unreconizable, giving our eventual nominee (whoever it is, though right now I don’t see how it’s not Congressman Meek) an opening.

This one isn’t out of contention by a long shot yet.  This could happen.  It’s not the most likely scenario in the world, but it’s still a very real possibility.

• FL-Sen: Word on the street is that Charlie Crist will announce his plans regarding the Senate race on Monday. It sounds like he’s eager to jump in as soon as possible after the end of the legislative session, to keep Marco Rubio from gaining any traction. If Crist’s exalted-sounding riposte to Rubio’s smacktalk yesterday is any indcation, he’s already staking out the post-partisan high ground.

• NH-Sen: Over in what Dean Barker calls “Cloud Hampshire,” Andy Smith of UNH still thinks there are more Republicans than Democrats in the Granite State. That could be why the notoriously unreliable pollster finds John Sununu, Jr. “leading” Paul Hodes 46-41. Take it for what it’s worth – i.e., not very much at all. (D)

• MN-Gov: Ellison Endorses Entenza! Rep. Keith Ellison from Minneapolis lent his support to Matt Entenza, the former state House minority leader (and a friend of Ellison’s from law school).

• OR-04: Republicans have recruited Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken to run against longtime incumbent Peter DeFazio. Don’t be misled into thinking this D+2 district represents a good opportunity for the GOP – DeFazio is very popular (he won with 83% last year). More likely, the GOP is hoping DeFazio will run for the governor’s mansion, leaving this seat open. (D)

• TX-17: GOP candidates once again are lining up for the opportunity to take on Rep. Chet Edwards. But Edwards keeps on finding a way to win in this wildly red district (at R+20, it’s the 19th most-conservative seat in the entire country), and he isn’t even on Frontline this year. Meanwhile, the Republican field is very much unsettled. (D)

• FL-24: State Republican chairman Jim Greer just announced that he won’t take on freshman Dem Suzanne Kosmas this cycle. Yet another recruiting failure for Pete Sessions & the NRCC. (D)

• Mayors: There are two mayoral elections in big cities today: Detroit and Anchorage. Detroit is a Dem-on-Dem duel where there’s not much ideological difference and it’s more of an insider/outsider clash; Kenneth Cockrel, who took over as mayor after Kwame Kilpatrick resigned, is up against businessman (and Detroit Pistons great and NBA Hall of Famer) Dave Bing. Anchorage residents are choosing between Democrat Eric Croft and Republican Dan Sullivan to replace now-Sen. Mark Begich. Anchorage Mayor was an important stepping stone for all two of Alaska’s prominent Dems: ex-Gov. Tony Knowles as well as Begich.