FL-Sen: Martinez May Bail Early, Crist Mulling a Run

Let’s hope this doesn’t happen:

In what could be a Sunshine State one-two punch, multiple Republican sources are confirming that Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) is giving serious consideration to running for Senate – and that Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.) is contemplating resigning from his seat before his term is up next year.

Martinez has already announced he will not run for re-election when his first term expires in 2010. Crist, according to sources, has had multiple serious conversations about running for Senate with both Martinez and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (Texas). […]

Sources say most Republicans are waiting on the sidelines because they want to see what Crist does before jumping into the Senate race, and explain further that Sink could be eyeing an open gubernatorial seat in 2010, when Crist’s first term is up.

Wow, okay. So are we to believe that Martinez will bail early and that Crist would appoint himself to the Senate? Martinez’s people are staying mum for now, only saying that the Senator “looks forward to serving out the rest of his term” (hardly a lock-solid promise to stay), and then we have this from Florida GOP Chair Jim Greer:

“A self-appointment — that’s not Charlie Crist. He has far too much appreciation for the electorate to appoint himself to the Senate,” said Greer.

Okay… but what about this scenario (again, from Roll Call):

Florida’s lieutenant governor is a Republican and would appoint Martinez’s successor if he and Crist both resign prematurely.

In other words, a self-appointment in all but name. Pretty skeezy, huh?

Of course, this is all speculative, and I hope that Kraushaar is onto something when his Florida GOP contacts tell him that the possibility of a Crist Senate bid is “remote”. In any event, Greer says that Crist won’t make a decision until the end of the state’s legislative session in May — at the earliest.

NY-Sen Poll, FL-Sen Rumblings

Marist

611 Registered Voters

MoE +/- 4%

Gillibrand (D-Inc.) 49%

King (R) 24%

The poll was taken on January 26th, 2009

http://www.maristpoll.marist.e…

Gillibrand looks set for re-election.  King will need to think he has a hell of a case to  make to New York voters if he is going to put himself out there and run.  

Buchanan met with National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman John Cornyn yesterday to discuss a potential Senate campaign, and was escorted by the retiring Sen. Mel Martinez.  

Buchanan’s biggest asset is his personal wealth: When he first ran for the House in 2006, he spent $5.45 million of his own money into the race.  He would be able to, at least partially, self-finance a Senate campaign.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

With people expecting Rubio and Mack to run, this could throw a wrench in the mix.  It could open up some hot territory for Democrats, seeing as FL-13 is only R+4, if third parties don’t plague our chances.    

FL-Sen: Boyd and McCollum Are Out

Rep. Allen Boyd announced today that he won’t be running for the open Senate seat in Florida in 2010. While Boyd (fairly conservative even by Blue Dog standards) might have been a decent prospect in the general, he may not have been enthused about his prospects for making it out of the primary, where two more liberal Miami-area politicians, Rep. Kendrick Meek and State Sen. Dan Gelber, are already jockeying for position. As a bonus, this means not having to defend an open seat in the Republican-leaning FL-02 in the Panhandle.

On the Republican side of the ledger, Attorney General (and Clinton impeachment manager and two-time Senate loser) Bill McCollum also bowed out today. While he was the front-runner in the GOP field according to last week’s Quinnipiac poll, that may have been based more on name recognition as a frequent statewide candidate (and certainly not on likeability).

Politico reports that it’s still full speed ahead for two other GOPers: former State House Speaker Marco Rubio and Rep. Connie Mack IV, although neither one has formally announced anything. On the Dem side, one other name cropped up yesterday, that hadn’t been mentioned before: Tampa mayor Pam Iorio publicly expressed her interest in the race. She could make things interesting, as the I-4 Corridor becomes more of a locus of Democratic strength in Florida while Meek and Gelber divide the Miami-area vote.

FL-Sen: Gelber Will Run

From the St. Petersburg Times:

Democratic state Sen. Dan Gelber is expected tomorrow to become the second major candidate to announce for the U.S. Senate seat to be vacated by Republican Mel Martinez. Gelber has a press conference scheduled for 10 a.m. at his Miami Beach home.

Gelber already has a campaign site set up where you can learn more about his accomplishments. It’s my understanding that Gelber has a lot of support from key movers in the Florida Democratic establishment, but with only 1% support in the latest Democratic primary polling, he sure has a lot to prove over the next year and a half.

FL-Sen: Wide Open Race in Florida

Quinnipiac (1/14-19, registered voters):

Alex Sink (D): 15

Kendrick Meek (D): 13

Ron Klein (D): 9

Allen Boyd (D): 8

Dan Gelber (D): 1

Don’t know: 54

(MoE: ±4.7%)

Bill McCollum (R): 22

Connie Mack IV (R): 21

Vern Buchanan (R): 10

Marco Rubio (R): 6

Allan Bense (R): 2

Don’t know: 39

(MoE: ±4.3%)

If the primary elections for the Florida senate race were held today, “Don’t know” would sweep both nominations in a landslide. At this point, this is a name recognition test, and Floridians seem to have no idea who these candidates are. At any rate, there seems to be something of a hierarchy here: statewide officials (Sink, McCollum) fare best, then U.S. Representatives, with state legislative leaders down in no man’s land.

On the Dem side, Kendrick Meek has the edge among current candidates. But assuming that he comes in with fairly high name rec from being in the state’s largest media market, and that he’s probably already consolidated the state’s African-American vote, he may not have as much room to grow as the other candidates.

Unfortunately, this poll has a major wrinkle; it was in the field when Alex Sink announced that she wasn’t going to be a Senate candidate, so presumably some respondents were operating under the assumption that Sink was a likely candidate while others knew that she wouldn’t be. In fact, the only head-to-head Quinnipiac tried out involved Sink as the Dem nominee (McCollum 36, Sink 35, with 29 don’t know). Here’s hoping they try again soon with some other permutations.

FL-Sen: Sink Won’t Run

Major bummer:

Florida’s CFO Alex Sink is making calls, telling people that she has decided not to run for the U.S. Senate, a seat that will be open in 2010. That probably assures that state Sen. Dan Gelber of Miami Beach will get in, and likely makes the race more attractive to U.S. Rep. Allen Boyd of Monticello.

There’s no doubt that Sink was our best bet. Without her, I’d have to hope that someone like Ron Klein enters the race instead of a first-class jerk like Boyd.

Here’s Sink’s statement:

“Over the past several weeks, I have given serious and careful thought to my own future and, more importantly, to the future of our state.  And I am extremely grateful for the support and advice so many friends and fellow Floridians have shared.  I believe my skills and abilities are of greatest use here in Florida, where I am honored to serve as Chief Financial Officer.  And I will run for re-election as Chief Financial Officer to continue being a fiscal watchdog on behalf of the people of Florida.”

UPDATE: Sounds like Dan Gelber will be throwing his hat in the ring shortly:

Dan Gelber: “I was prepared to fully support Alex had she chosen the US Senate seat as her next step in public life, and it is now my hope to share the ballot with her in 2010 as we work together as Floridians to bring real change to our state and restore the dream of a time past, when the state that we love was a beacon of a better life for anyone who seeks it. “Given this morning’s news, I expect to officially enter the race in the coming weeks.”

FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek Will Run

The Hill:

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-Fla.) is expected to announce he is running for retiring Sen. Mel Martinez’s (R-Fla.) seat on Tuesday morning, making him the first Democrat in the race.

Meek, a four-term congressman, has announced a 10 a.m. EST press conference in Miami, where Democratic sources with knowledge of his plans said he is set to announce he is entering the race.

I’m no big fan of Kendrick Meek, in no small part thanks to his non-support of our trio of Democratic challengers in South Florida this past fall, but thankfully I doubt that he’ll have a clear primary field to himself. State Sen. Dan Gelber will also announce a decision shortly, and Florida CFO Alex Sink is also weighing a run.

Open seat fans have no reason to fret — Meek’s 17th CD has an absurdly Democratic PVI of D+35.

FL-Sen: Jeb Won’t Run

Hallelujah!

Jeb Bush: “After thoughtful consideration, I’ve decided not to run for the United States Senate in 2010. “While the opportunity to serve my state and country during these turbulent and dynamic times is compelling, now is not the right time to return to elected office.

What a relief. With Jeb’s name off the table, the open seat of retiring GOP Sen. Mel Martinez is now truly up for grabs.

FL-Sen: Jeb Bush Begging off a Run?

Brothers and sisters, let us pray:

Republican excitement over the prospect of Jeb Bush running for U.S. Senate has given way to increasing speculation that the former governor will stay out of the race.

Bush declined to comment for this article but was expected to make an announcement perhaps as early as this week. Even with his father on national TV Sunday touting Bush as a terrific potential future senator or president, friends say family considerations could outweigh the pull of public service.

Among other things, the article suggests that Bush might be reluctant to run because it would hurt his consulting business (which I can only assume has been quite lucrative). Please, Jeb, think of your bank account!

2010 Senate Update:

A lot of things went under the radar the last couple days, I felt we needed a round up.  

Starting with the last outstanding race of the 2008 elections, MN-Sen.  After two days of going through the Franken challenges, (with the exception of a few Coleman challenges that were incidentally found in the mix) this is where the counting stands: http://senaterecount.startribu…

Of 411 ballots that have been reviewed so far, Coleman is +234 votes, Franken is +64 votes, and Other is +117.  Franken had a high success rate (around 17% by most estimates) which is higher than predictions have been.  It is hard to say how many of those challenges exactly Franken won, because the other category consists of votes Franken won, taking away from Coleman and votes that Franken lost, not moving toward Franken.  

There are around 4,000 withdrawn challenges that need to be counted and added to the SOS website tally.  Those are said to be reported when they are finished being counted.  There are an estimated 1,600 wrongfully rejected absentee ballots that are hung up in the Minnesota Supreme Court to be ruled on in the near future.  And an estimated 700 Coleman challenges to sort through over the coming days.  (Coleman may bring “duplicate ballots” to court.  They are contending not all the ballots counted during the recount had an original.  This would open a whole can of worms because both campaigns challenged 600 ballots total over this while some counties didn’t let them challenge ballots over this.)

The next race with news, FL-Sen.  Alex Sink is jumping through the hoops of a probable candidate.  Many will remember news reports of Mark Begich and Jeff Merkley doing exactly what sink did before becoming candidates:

Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, the only Democrat serving in Florida’s Cabinet, met recently in Washington with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez, the chamber’s point man for the 2010 election. She’s clearly the national party’s top choice to run for the seat to be vacated by Republican Sen. Mel Martinez.

Article found here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com…

If I had to make a prediction, I would assume Alex Sink waits until we hear what Jeb Bush decides about a senate race in Florida before announcing whether she plans to run for senate.  

Next on the line is KS-Sen.  Brownback is making his retirement from the senate official tomorrow.  Article found here: http://briefingroom.thehill.co…  

Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.) won’t seek reelection in 2010 and will explore a run for governor.

He plans to announce his retirement from the Senate on Thursday, reports CNN. Brownback joined the Senate in 1996, succeeding former Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole (R). He has long been a supporter of term limits, and he had pledged to serve only two full terms.

As for NH-Sen:

while popular Gov. John Lynch (D) is also said to be looking into the race.

Here: http://www.rollcall.com/news/3… You need a a subscription for the article.  

I wouldn’t put much stock into a governor considering a senate race.  He will probably just fall back on running for governor.  I doubt Menendez can sweet talk him out of it.  

What do you guys think?  Also recent news I made a comment on but didn’t get much attention, Brad Miller pulled himself out of consideration from NC-Sen in 2010.  http://www.wral.com/news/state…