Tag: FL-Sen

• MN-Sen: After the court-ordered opening of the 351 previously rejected absentee ballots, Al Franken’s lead just grew to 312 votes (up from 225 votes after the hand recount). Although the Minnesota Supreme Court still has to rule on some miscellaneous issues (the possibility of some double-counts), these questions affect fewer than 300 ballots, meaning that it is now mathematically impossible for Norm Coleman to prevail.

• RI-Gov: After backing off and saying he wouldn’t decide anything until May, it seems like Lincoln Chafee has turned around again and has officially formed his exploratory committee. He will be “putting together a plan that will lay the groundwork for an Independent campaign for governor in 2010.”

• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter has come out firing against Pat Toomey’s likely primary challenge… and he’s already shooting blanks. He had to pull down and revise his attack ad for a factual error. He had accused Toomey of having traded credit default swaps while a Wall Street trader in the 80s (turns out CDSs hadn’t been invented yet at that point). Trying a new tack on today’s Morning Joe, Specter said that Toomey is too conservative to win statewide, accusing him of being “to the right of Rick Santorum.”

• AR-Sen: Looks like Wal-Mart may have sent Blanche Lincoln a cheap Chinese-made horse head for her bed. Lincoln, who supported the Employee Free Choice Act last time it came up, has announced she won’t be supporting it this time around, at least “in its current form.” Even if Franken gets seated and Specter flip-flops again, this probably defers EFCA until after 2010 (unless it passes in a gutted form).

• NV-Sen: John Ensign is making his first speaking appearance in Iowa later this spring. Signs of a presidential run? Possible, considering the paltry lot the GOP has on tap so far. This is of SSP interest primarily because Ensign is up for re-election in 2012 and would leave behind an open seat in this newly blue seat in order to run.

• IL-Sen: Big first-quarter haul for Treasurer (and Friend of Barack) Alexi Giannoulias, the only announced candidate for IL-Sen so far. He pulled in $1.1 million, none of which was from corporate PACs.

• FL-Sen: When asked for his assessment of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist’s job performance, Democratic Senate candidate Kendrick Meek dodged the question, telling the St. Petersburg Times that “I haven’t yet reviewed his work”. Sharp answer! (J)

• FL-Gov: Hey, pallie – you better watch it! Charles Bronson says he’s going to run for governor of Florida if Charles Crist runs for the Senate. And you thought Charles Bronson was dead! Wrong again, pallie! (D)

• FL-02: State senator Al Lawson, who’s primarying Allen Boyd from the left, seems like he won’t be pulling punches in going after Boyd. Lawson (who’s said a few Blue Doggish things of his own in the past) says “From my perspective, a Blue Dog is just a closet Republican,” and is “committed to being a true Democrat.”

• LA-Legislature: There were three special elections in Louisiana legislative races over the weekend (a Democratic senate seat in Opelousas, a Democratic house seat in New Orleans, and a GOP house seat in Baton Rouge suburbs). Despite the GOP contesting all three seats, Democrats held the line in their two open seats (including one to replace Don Cravins, who’s moved to Washington). The candidates in both runoffs will be Democrats, meaning Dems will hold their 4-seat edge in the senate and 1-seat edge in the house.  

• IL-05: It’s special election day in the dark, dark blue 5th. Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley faces off against GOP activist (and Minutewoman) Rosanna Pulido and a Green party candidate. In a big surprise, SSP will not be liveblogging the results.

Via SG, the North Carolina’s News & Observer sayeth:

Attorney General Roy Cooper said he hopes to make a decision on whether to challenge Republican Sen. Richard Burr some time this spring, Rob Christensen reports.

“I want to continue with public service to the people of North Carolina,” Cooper said Tuesday morning after attending a meeting of the Council of State. “I’m going to determine the best way to do that. I’m going to decide that very soon.”

Technically speaking, that gives Cooper until June 20th to make up his mind – summer officially starts on the 21st. A few other folks have also offered some soft deadlines.

RI-Gov – Lincoln Chafee (I):

But in a visit to Barrington Congregational Church, where he spoke about America’s world role in the post-Bush era, the 56-year-old Chafee said again that he is “very, very interested” in running and will decide this spring, based on whether he thinks he can raise the money to run a campaign and whether he has a chance to win. …

He said he expects to decide on a gubernatorial run when the fellowship ends in May.

NY-Sen-B – Peter King (R):

Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y), the leading Republican contender for the New York Senate seat, praised newly-appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, and said he won’t decide whether to run against her until this summer.

OR-Gov – Greg Walden (R):

Whatever the case, Walden sounds like he’ll be quicker to make a decision about the governorship than DeFazio. While the Democrat said he has no deadline, Walden said he wants to make his intentions clear by summer.

FL-Sen – Charlie Crist (R):

Few Republicans are entering the race so far. Most are waiting a decision from Governor Charlie Crist, who says he’ll make an annoucement on whether or not he’ll make a run for Washington after the state legislative session wraps up in May.

Do you know of any others? Please let us know in comments (with links). Thanks!

Mason-Dixon for Sayfie Review/PowerPlay (3/30-4/1, registered voters):

Alex Sink (D): 35

Bill McCollum (R): 36

(MoE: ±4%)

It seems like not that long ago we were looking at a potential Florida senate race between CFO Alex Sink and AG Bill McCollum. With Gov. Charlie Crist sounding more and more like he’s moving to switch over to the Senate, causing the lower ranks on Florida’s political totem pole to gravitate over to the governor’s race, we may now be looking at a Sink/McCollum FL-Gov race instead, and that’s what Mason-Dixon just polled. (In fact, if those numbers look vaguely familiar to you, it’s because Quinnipiac did a head-to-head poll of a Sink/McCollum FL-Sen matchup in mid-January, and that poll also found McCollum 36, Sink 35!)

Mason-Dixon didn’t poll head-to-heads on a Crist-centered Senate race (either GOP primary or general). However, they did ask whether voters would “consider” voting for him, for which the answers were 17% definitely, 50% consider, and 26% definitely not. There is one note of caution for Crist here, though: he gets an 18% “definitely not” from Republicans (compared with a 35% “definitely not” from Democrats). That could point to a very competitive primary with a more orthodox conservative opponent. With former House speaker Marco Rubio intent on staying in the race and highlighting Crist’s stimulus-loving ways, it seems likely Rubio will be that opponent.

It looks like Charlie Crist won’t be facing a Mack Attack in 2010:

[Connie] Mack [IV], whose father served two terms in the Senate, wrote to Gov. Charlie Crist on Thursday saying he won’t be a Senate candidate. […]

Mack told Crist, “I will be your strongest supporter and champion – regardless of whether you seek re-election or election to the Senate.”

If Crist does indeed get into this race, I still expect an anti-Crist to emerge — but will it really be Marco Rubio, or will someone with more spine step up to take on Crist and his Obama-loving ways?

• Site News: SSP is delighted to announce that we’ve just welcomed our six millionth visitor to the site. Thank you, everyone! (D)

• NY-20: The NRCC is already using the paper-thin margin in NY-20 last night as the springboard for a whole new fundraising e-mail pitch: the Dems are trying to “pull a Franken” and “steal” the election in the courts, so please send lawyers, guns, and money. Eric Kleefeld has a thought on why this is good news! For Pete Sessions!

One problem Murphy might have is that Al Franken’s lawyers aren’t available right now. And in Tedisco’s favor, Norm Coleman’s attorneys are busy, too.

The Fix has obtained some Democratic projections of how things will shake out after all absentees are counted (they’re projecting Murphy by 210). This appears to be based on performance rates in the counties where the absentees came from (in other words, there seem to be disproportionately more absentees coming from pro-Murphy counties than Saratoga).

• AK-Sen: It happened a few months too late to save Ted Stevens’ job, but the DOJ has finally dropped its frequently-bungled case against Stevens after further instances of prosecutorial misconduct arose.

• CT-Sen: One more ‘oopsie’ for Chris Dodd: he blew through a lot of his campaign war chest on his ill-advised 2008 presidential run (he transferred $4.7 million from his 2010 senate kitty to his presidential campaign). He’s currently at only $670K cash on hand, compared with $1.6 million at this same point in his 2004 re-election.

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek plays Gallant to Chris Dodd’s Goofus: he raised a whopping $1.5 million in the first quarter, as he tries to nail down frontrunner status for the Democratic nomination.

• CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina, who was briefly sidelined by treatment for breast cancer, seems ready to get back into the political arena. She’s “seriously considering” entering the race against Barbara Boxer.

• OK-Gov, OK-04: SSP’s all-time favorite punching bag, Tom Cole, looks to be staying where he is. He’s declined to run for Oklahoma governor, leaving fellow Rep. Mary Fallin in the driver’s seat for the GOP nomination.

• TX-10: Democrat Jack McDonald, an Austin-area businessman running for the seat of GOP Rep. Mike McCaul, has announced that his campaign has raised over $300,000 in its first five weeks. Those are some pretty impressive numbers at this stage in the game. (J)

• NRCC/NRSC: Remember the brouhaha over the big NRCC/NRSC fundraising dinner where no one could figure out whether or not Sarah Palin was going to keynote, where it turned out that the governor’s office and SarahPAC had no idea what each other were doing? Well, amateur hour is continuing apace in Anchorage, as now she’s off again. In her place, Newt Gingrich (who would have ever predicted the day when Newt Gingrich would be seen, by comparison, as the GOP’s sober, rational elder statesman?).

• History: PolitickerNY takes an intersting trip down memory lane, looking at some of the greatest hits among previous close House elections, like CT-02 in 1994 and IN-08 in 1984.

• NY-20: You’ll never believe who Barack Obama endorsed in the NY-20 special election, happening in just a week: Scott Murphy! He sent out an e-mail to more than 50,000 supporters in the district making the case for Murphy. Still no sign of an Obama appearance, though – and this late move comes as House Dems were supposedly “infuriated” at a lack of White House support for Murphy. Meanwhile, Taegan Goddard claims to have been leaked an RNC internal poll showing Jim Tedisco up over Murphy by only 3.

• CT-Sen: Chris Dodd just dodged a loud, annoying bullet: CNBC host Larry Kudlow has said that he won’t run against Dodd in 2010. Kudlow said, as many believed, that “it was never a serious proposition” in the first place. Dodd still faces less-known but more credible opposition in the form of ex-Rep. Rob Simmons and probably state senator Sam Caligiuri.

• FL-Sen/Gov: Charlie Crist tells reporters that he’s considering forming a Senate exploratory committee even before the state legislature ends its session on May 1. Crist has previously maintained that he would not announce his future plans until after the current session comes to a close. (J) Meanwhile, former state house speaker Marco Rubio is seeming committed to staying in the Senate race even if Crist gets in; he’s been publicly going after Crist on the stimulus and on gambling.

• NYC-Mayor: Quinnipiac’s newest poll is largely unchanged from its last, with Bloombo a shade under 50 and Dems in the mid-30s. But the Dem numbers have improved a little bit, and The Mayor is at his worst approval ratings of his second term (still, 64-28). Will Anthony Weiner’s apparent decision to back off the race allow Dems to rally around Comptroller Bill Thompson? (D)

• NRCC: The NRCC scored a big fundraising haul for its March dinner, with Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal as the keynote speaker. They raised more than $6 million, with 95% of the House Republicans contributing.

• TN-03: The Chattanooga Times Free Press takes a preliminary look at the contenders lining up to replace Zach Wamp (running for TN-Gov) in the solidly Republican 3rd. Right now, Bradley County sheriff Tim Gobble is the only formal candidate. (I’m hoping he wins just because of his hilarious name. I’m especially looking forward to the Gobble-Fudge Act. I can also think of a much more obscene-sounding bill involving a certain minority leader.) Tennessee GOP chair Robin Smith, who may be the strongest candidate, is still in the exploring stage. Other possible GOPers include state senator Bo Watson and state rep. Gerald McCormick. The district’s strongest Dem, state senator Andy Berke, seems more interested in a gubernatorial run. One other possibility is that Wamp may jump back into his seat if he doesn’t get traction in the GOP gubernatorial primary.

• MI-11: Could we finally have a legit challenger in our sights to take on GOP weirdo Thaddeus McCotter? A group of local activists have banded together to draft state Sen. Glenn Anderson for the race (no relation to the six-time Stanley Cup winner). (J)

Here’s your daily dose of bullet points…

• TX-10: Democrats have lined up a solid candidate in TX-10, where Larry Joe Doherty came within 10 points of Mike McCaul last year. Jack McDonald, CEO of Austin high-tech firm Perficient, has started an exploratory committee. This fast-growing, Dem-trending district may also be an open seat in 2010, as McCaul considers a bid for Texas AG.

• CA-48: It looks like GOP Rep. John Campbell is about to receive a stronger-than-expected Democratic challenge in 2010. Beth Krom, the former mayor of Irvine and a current city councilor, has made a formal announcement of her candidacy on her campaign website. A traditionally red district, Obama edged out a slight victory over McCain here in 2008, pulling 49% of the vote. (Hat-tip to Gus Ayer, friend of SSP) (J)

• NV-Sen: Here’s one that slipped through the cracks last week: ex-Rep. Jon Porter, who’d be the GOP’s best option against Harry Reid, is staying in Washington and becoming ‘director of public policy’ at a lobbying shop. Not that this closes him out from running, but it diminshes the likelihood.

• FL-Sen: Rep. Kendrick Meek has been racking up money ($90,000 at a recent Bill Clinton-headlined fundraiser) and endorsements (Florida’s SEIU chapter and United Teachers of Dade) while primary opponent state senator Dan Gelber is preoccupied with the legislative session.

• DCCC: In a big behind-the-scenes move, DCCC executive director (and Pelosi ally) Brian Wolff has left the D-Trip to become senior VP for external affairs at the Edison Electric Institute, a utility-owned trade and lobbying group that has previously given significantly more money to Republicans. (UPDATE: The DCCC’s new executive director will be Jon Vogel, who previously led the DCCC’s independent expenditures arm.)

• WA-08: Here’s an interesting take from American Prospect on what went wrong with Darcy Burner’s rematch against Dave Reichert, written by Eli Sanders, the former politics reporter for the Stranger (Seattle’s alt-weekly). I’m not sure I agree with the final analysis (they say it was mostly a matter of tone) but it’s thought-provoking.

• FL-Sen: Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio has formed an exploratory committee for the Senate seat that Mel Martinez is vacating. However, if Crist runs, Rubio will bail to run for Governor, instead. (J)

• NY-Sen-B: This would be pretty serious. Long Island Democratic Congressman Steve Israel is said to be considering a primary run against Kirsten Gillibrand, according to the NY Times. Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer and Rep. Carolyn Maloney are also openly mulling the race. (J)

• KS-Gov: Looks like Kansas Dems are back to the drawing board not just in terms of the senate seat but also the governor’s mansion. Lt. Gov Mark Parkinson, who will be taking over for soon-to-be-ex-Governor Kathleen Sebelius, has reaffirmed his earlier statement that he wouldn’t seek the governor’s seat in 2010.

• PA-Sen: Glen Meakem, a Pittsburgh-area right-wing internet entrepreneur, was one of the fallback options for a conservative primary challenge to Arlen Specter. He’s backed out of the fray, apparently deferring to Pat Toomey’s renewed interest in the race. (You may remember Meakem as the guy who personally financed those internal “polls” showing John Murtha neck-and-neck with his defrauder challenger last year.)

• RNC: The RNC is transferring $1 million each to the NRSC and NRCC to help them dig out from under the 2008 debt and get back on the offensive. In other RNC news, one of the RNC’s three African-American members, Dr. Ada Fisher of North Carolina, is calling on RNC chair Michael Steele to step down in the face of his increasing, well, ridiculousness.

• Census: Incoming Commerce Sec. Gary Locke says the Census will stay a part of his portfolio at Commerce. It also looks that sampling, which is the real methodological sticking point that’s the source of the political squabble over census management, won’t be used aggressively; Locke said that sampling will be used “minimally, as an accuracy check.”

• NH-St. Sen.: It’s all but official: former Rep. Jeb Bradley is downshifting his career, to say the least. Tomorrow he’ll announce his candidacy for the New Hampshire state senate in SD-3. This will be an open seat vacated by a Republican, so it’s not even a potential GOP pickup. (Trivia time: I can think of at least two other ex-Representatives who are currently state senators. Can anybody name them?)

The other day, I relayed some informed speculation that Charlie Crist could face a serious primary challenge from his party’s right wing if he were to run for Senate – despite his lofty poll numbers. That’s because Crist is carving out a very public profile these days as a moderate, particularly with regard to stimulus spending.

But apart from a few non-insane fellow travelers like Arnold Schwarzenegger, the GOP has made opposition to the stimulus the sine qua non of modern-day Republicanism. The Florida GOP is no exception, and now its most conservative faction has trotted out George P. Bush (Jeb!’s son) to chide Charlie:

George P. Bush may not be ready to follow his father, grandfather and uncle into politics just yet, but he is trying to help the Republican Party regain a conservative message, which on Saturday included criticism of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist.

Bush, the son of former Gov. Jeb Bush, grandson of former President George H.W. Bush and nephew of former President George W. Bush, addressed a national conference of young Republicans and told them there is a rift in the party between fiscal conservatives and what he calls “D light” — Republicans trying to appeal to the political middle.

“There’s some in our party that want to assume that government is the answer to all of our problems,” Bush said. “I’m not going to name any names.”

Of course, he did go right ahead and name names:

Afterward, Bush said he doesn’t think Crist is a fiscal conservative and that he may have hurt himself with some Republicans for his appearance with Obama and his support of the stimulus plan.

“That will be on his track record, and people are going to remember that,” Bush said, adding that Crist is running the risk of falling in the “D light” category of the party.

“There are numerous actions that I have seen legislatively that do not speak to a strong conservative; it speaks more to a moderate,” Bush said. “That’s fine, but when you run as a conservative and then you lead as a moderate, that’s one thing that any leader would have to reconcile.”

Could this be a prelude to a fierce moderate-vs-conservative primary fight for the Senate nomination? Or could malcontents like George P. even be hinting at a gubernatorial challenge, if Crist chooses to stay put? This isn’t just a fight for the soul of the Florida Republican Party, but really the GOP itself. Crist is their most prominent moderate on the national scene, and from the wingnut point of view, he must be kneecapped.

I’m starting to really believe we could see a major R-on-R food-fight here. Let’s at least keep our fingers crossed!

Quinnipiac University tested several different segments and scenarios in FL-Sen. Here they are (2/11-16, registered voters, 1/21 in parens):

Dem primary:

Pam Iorio: 16

Kendrick Meek: 16

Ron Klein: 14

Dan Gelber: 5

Other: 2

Wouldn’t Vote: 4

Undecided: 43

(MoE: ±5.1%)

GOP primary without Crist:

Connie Mack: 34

Vern Buchanan: 11

Marco Rubio: 6

Allan Bense: 4

Other: 2

Wouldn’t Vote: 5

Undecided: 38

(MoE: ±4.7)

GOP primary with Crist:

Charlie Crist: 53

Connie Mack: 13

Vern Buchanan: 5

Marco Rubio: 3

Allan Bense: 2

Other: 2

Wouldn’t Vote: 1

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4.7)

Crist vs. generic D:

Democrat: 25 (27)

Charlie Crist (R): 48 (47)

Undecided: 27 (27)

(MoE: ±3.1)

Since you probably want a scorecard:

State Sen. Dan Gelber (Miami area)

Mayor Pam Iorio (Tampa)

Rep. Ron Klein (FL-22)

Rep. Kendrick Meek (FL-17)

Former state House Speaker Allan Bense (Panama City area)

Rep. Vern Buchanan (FL-13)

Rep. Connie Mack IV (FL-14)

Former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (Miami area)

And of course, Gov. Charlie Crist needs no introduction. The only people on this list who have actually announced, though, are Meek and Gelber – the field is very much in flux. (North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns has also jumped in on the Dem side, but he wasn’t tested.) Anyhow, I only have two quick comments:

1) Yes, I realize that Connie Mack (aka Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV) is fortunate, politically speaking, to share the exact same name as his famous father, who was a US Senator until 2001. But wasn’t it a bit much for Quinnipiac to prod respondents by wording their question like so: “Is your opinion of Congressman Connie Mack IV, son of former United States Senator Connie Mack, favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?” I think that partly explains his unusually high numbers.

2) Crist looks like he’s riding tall right now in the Republican primary, but a colleague of mine well-versed in Florida politics has me convinced that Crist’s apostasy will guarantee him a fierce challenge from the right. His cheerleading for the stimulus – which the GOP standard-bearers have insanely decided to turn into the ultimate conservative litmus test – is just Exhibit A on his list of sins. We’ll see if the wingnuts can really make him feel pain, or if they’ll just have to suck it up and (gasp!) support someone electable. Obviously, we’re rooting for option one.

(Hat-tip: Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire)