Tag: OK-04

• Site News: SSP is delighted to announce that we’ve just welcomed our six millionth visitor to the site. Thank you, everyone! (D)

• NY-20: The NRCC is already using the paper-thin margin in NY-20 last night as the springboard for a whole new fundraising e-mail pitch: the Dems are trying to “pull a Franken” and “steal” the election in the courts, so please send lawyers, guns, and money. Eric Kleefeld has a thought on why this is good news! For Pete Sessions!

One problem Murphy might have is that Al Franken’s lawyers aren’t available right now. And in Tedisco’s favor, Norm Coleman’s attorneys are busy, too.

The Fix has obtained some Democratic projections of how things will shake out after all absentees are counted (they’re projecting Murphy by 210). This appears to be based on performance rates in the counties where the absentees came from (in other words, there seem to be disproportionately more absentees coming from pro-Murphy counties than Saratoga).

• AK-Sen: It happened a few months too late to save Ted Stevens’ job, but the DOJ has finally dropped its frequently-bungled case against Stevens after further instances of prosecutorial misconduct arose.

• CT-Sen: One more ‘oopsie’ for Chris Dodd: he blew through a lot of his campaign war chest on his ill-advised 2008 presidential run (he transferred $4.7 million from his 2010 senate kitty to his presidential campaign). He’s currently at only $670K cash on hand, compared with $1.6 million at this same point in his 2004 re-election.

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek plays Gallant to Chris Dodd’s Goofus: he raised a whopping $1.5 million in the first quarter, as he tries to nail down frontrunner status for the Democratic nomination.

• CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina, who was briefly sidelined by treatment for breast cancer, seems ready to get back into the political arena. She’s “seriously considering” entering the race against Barbara Boxer.

• OK-Gov, OK-04: SSP’s all-time favorite punching bag, Tom Cole, looks to be staying where he is. He’s declined to run for Oklahoma governor, leaving fellow Rep. Mary Fallin in the driver’s seat for the GOP nomination.

• TX-10: Democrat Jack McDonald, an Austin-area businessman running for the seat of GOP Rep. Mike McCaul, has announced that his campaign has raised over $300,000 in its first five weeks. Those are some pretty impressive numbers at this stage in the game. (J)

• NRCC/NRSC: Remember the brouhaha over the big NRCC/NRSC fundraising dinner where no one could figure out whether or not Sarah Palin was going to keynote, where it turned out that the governor’s office and SarahPAC had no idea what each other were doing? Well, amateur hour is continuing apace in Anchorage, as now she’s off again. In her place, Newt Gingrich (who would have ever predicted the day when Newt Gingrich would be seen, by comparison, as the GOP’s sober, rational elder statesman?).

• History: PolitickerNY takes an intersting trip down memory lane, looking at some of the greatest hits among previous close House elections, like CT-02 in 1994 and IN-08 in 1984.

These are all states with filing deadlines in June

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here .  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

KS has 4 congressional districts: 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans

NH has 2 congressional districts: Both  Democrats

OK has 5 congressional districts: 1 Democrats and 4 Republicans

RI has 2 congressional districts: Both  Democrats

WA has 9 congressional districts: 6 Democrats and 3 Republicans

The districts held by Democrats are



                                     Confirmed

dist    Cook Prob Repub Incumbent     Challenger? rating

KS-02    R+7    .64      Boyda          Yes          Vul

KS-03    R+4    .50      Moore          Yes          Mostly safe

NH-01    R+0    .78      Shea-Porter    Yes          Probably safe  

NH-02    D+3    .84      Hodes          Yes          Hard to say

OK-02    R+5    .25      Boren          No           Safe

RI-01    D+16   .38      Kennedy        No           Safe

RI-02    D+13   .51      Langevin       No           Safe

WA-01    D+7    .46      Inslee         Yes          Safe

WA-02    D+3    .61      Larsen         No           Safe

WA-03    D+0    .61      Baird          No           Safe

WA-06    D+6    .33      Dicks          No           Safe

WA-07    D+30   .15      McDermott      No           Safe

WA-09    D+6    .26      Smith          No           Safe

Those held by Republicans

KS-01 R+20 0.70

KS-01 is most of KS, except for the eastern and southeastern parts, bordering OK, CO, and NE

Moran, first elected in 1996, has won easily, often without a Democratic opponent. In 2006 he got 79% against John Doll, although Doll raised only $62,000.

This year, Doll might run again, but the only confirmed James Bordonaro (no web site yet)

KS-04 R+12 .48

KS-04 is in southern KS, towards the eastern part, bordering OK

Tiahrt first elected in 1994, has won easily against opponents with very little money

This year, he faces Donald Betts

OK-01 R+13 .24

OK-01 is an oddly shaped district in the northeastern part of OK; it includes Tulsa and a narrow strip north to the KS border, and then a wider section south of Tulsa

Sullivan, first elected in 2002, has gotten steadily larger shares of the vote

There is no confirmed challenger

OK-03 R+18 .50

OK-03 is the panhandle of OK and the northwestern part of the rest of the state, bordeing CO, TX, and KS.

Lucas, first elected in 1994, has mostly won easily against underfunded opponents

There is no confirmed challenger

OK-04 R+13 .40

OK-04 is the southwestern part of OK, bordering TX and including souther suburbs of Oklahoma City

Cole, first elected in 2002, won a close race in 2002 but has not had a well-funded challenger since then

There is no confirmed challenger

OK-05 R+12 .12

OK-05 is shaped more or less like a stair in central OK, including Oklahoma City

Fallin, first elected in 2006, won 60-37.

The confirmed challenger is Bert Smith

WA-04 R+13 .55

WA-04 is the center of the state including Yakima, and bordering OR

Hastings, first elected in 1994, has won reasonably easily even against opponents with some funding

The only confirmed challenger is George Fearing

WA-05 R+7 .50

WA-05 is the eastern part of the state, bordering Canada, OR, and ID

Rodgers, first elected in 2004, had a tough race in 2006, beating Peter Goldmark 56-44 and spending almost $2 million (Goldmark spent about $1.2 million

There is no confirmed challenger

WA-08 D+2  .59

WA-08 includes the eastern edge of Seattle and other land east of Lake Washington

Reichert, first elected in 2004, had a close race in 2006 against Darcy Burner.  

Burner is running again, and has a good chance

Summary:

Kansas – I’m worried about Boyda, although she beat Ryun last time.  

NH – Shea Porter won 51-49 against an incumbent, while raising less than $300,000 (her opponent, Jeb Bradley, had more than triple that).  She should win again

OK – looks like everyone is pretty safe

RI – both congressmen are safe

WA – Reichert is vulnerable