These are all states with filing deadlines in June
The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here . I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.
KS has 4 congressional districts: 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans
NH has 2 congressional districts: Both Democrats
OK has 5 congressional districts: 1 Democrats and 4 Republicans
RI has 2 congressional districts: Both Democrats
WA has 9 congressional districts: 6 Democrats and 3 Republicans
The districts held by Democrats are
Confirmed
dist Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating
KS-02 R+7 .64 Boyda Yes Vul
KS-03 R+4 .50 Moore Yes Mostly safe
NH-01 R+0 .78 Shea-Porter Yes Probably safe
NH-02 D+3 .84 Hodes Yes Hard to say
OK-02 R+5 .25 Boren No Safe
RI-01 D+16 .38 Kennedy No Safe
RI-02 D+13 .51 Langevin No Safe
WA-01 D+7 .46 Inslee Yes Safe
WA-02 D+3 .61 Larsen No Safe
WA-03 D+0 .61 Baird No Safe
WA-06 D+6 .33 Dicks No Safe
WA-07 D+30 .15 McDermott No Safe
WA-09 D+6 .26 Smith No Safe
Those held by Republicans
KS-01 R+20 0.70
KS-01 is most of KS, except for the eastern and southeastern parts, bordering OK, CO, and NE
Moran, first elected in 1996, has won easily, often without a Democratic opponent. In 2006 he got 79% against John Doll, although Doll raised only $62,000.
This year, Doll might run again, but the only confirmed James Bordonaro (no web site yet)
KS-04 R+12 .48
KS-04 is in southern KS, towards the eastern part, bordering OK
Tiahrt first elected in 1994, has won easily against opponents with very little money
This year, he faces Donald Betts
OK-01 R+13 .24
OK-01 is an oddly shaped district in the northeastern part of OK; it includes Tulsa and a narrow strip north to the KS border, and then a wider section south of Tulsa
Sullivan, first elected in 2002, has gotten steadily larger shares of the vote
There is no confirmed challenger
OK-03 R+18 .50
OK-03 is the panhandle of OK and the northwestern part of the rest of the state, bordeing CO, TX, and KS.
Lucas, first elected in 1994, has mostly won easily against underfunded opponents
There is no confirmed challenger
OK-04 R+13 .40
OK-04 is the southwestern part of OK, bordering TX and including souther suburbs of Oklahoma City
Cole, first elected in 2002, won a close race in 2002 but has not had a well-funded challenger since then
There is no confirmed challenger
OK-05 R+12 .12
OK-05 is shaped more or less like a stair in central OK, including Oklahoma City
Fallin, first elected in 2006, won 60-37.
The confirmed challenger is Bert Smith
WA-04 R+13 .55
WA-04 is the center of the state including Yakima, and bordering OR
Hastings, first elected in 1994, has won reasonably easily even against opponents with some funding
The only confirmed challenger is George Fearing
WA-05 R+7 .50
WA-05 is the eastern part of the state, bordering Canada, OR, and ID
Rodgers, first elected in 2004, had a tough race in 2006, beating Peter Goldmark 56-44 and spending almost $2 million (Goldmark spent about $1.2 million
There is no confirmed challenger
WA-08 D+2 .59
WA-08 includes the eastern edge of Seattle and other land east of Lake Washington
Reichert, first elected in 2004, had a close race in 2006 against Darcy Burner.
Burner is running again, and has a good chance
Summary:
Kansas – I’m worried about Boyda, although she beat Ryun last time.
NH – Shea Porter won 51-49 against an incumbent, while raising less than $300,000 (her opponent, Jeb Bradley, had more than triple that). She should win again
OK – looks like everyone is pretty safe
RI – both congressmen are safe
WA – Reichert is vulnerable
Andrew Rice, state senator from Oklahoma and Jim Inhofe’s sole opponent for U.S. Senate this year, will be on Daily Kos today at 4:30 pm Central (5:30 Eastern/2:30 Pacific) to liveblog about his US Senate race. He’ll focus on the problems created by a combination of record gas prices and record oil company profits, but all questions will be welcome!