Tag: WA-05

CA-Sen: Biden alert! The VPOTUS will do a fundraiser for Barbara Boxer next month in Silicon Valley, followed by a next-day affair in the City of Angels. President Obama’s already done several events for Boxer, but of course, CA is damn enormous and expensive.

FL-Sen: We often criticize candidates for making phony ad buys which are really just pure media plays – but usually they aren’t this obvious about it. Zillionaire asshole Jeff Greene, ostensibly running for senate in Florida, is running ads on cable television… in Washington, DC. Greene is trying to goad the House Ethics Committee into investigating some earmark activity on Kendrick Meek’s part. I doubt this is going to work. Oh, and of course no word on the size of the buy. I mean, why even bother?

SC-Sen: The South Carolina Democratic Party turned back Vic Rawl’s challenge to Alvin Greene’s shocking primary win, citing a lack of evidence that would mandate an attempt to overturn the election results.

AL-Gov: If Tim James really wanted to stop a Republican from winning an election, he should have given that $200,000 to me. Instead, the money that he’s blown on a statewide recount has actually cost him ten votes so far, with 59 of 67 counties (representing 94% of the state’s population) having finished their second count. James trails second-place finisher Robert Bentley by 177 votes now, as opposed to 167 after election night. I really wonder who advised him on this move.

OH-Gov: Despite his repeated claims that he wasn’t very involved in Lehman Brother’s business operations, John Kasich still felt threatened enough by his connection that one of his staffers engaged in a little sideline duty – he advised Ohio’s largest public pension fund on how best to spin its nine-figure losses attributable to the Lehman debacle. Ah, who doesn’t love some nice shady commingling?

NC-02: Civitas hired SUSA to conduct a snap poll of the NC-02 race, in the wake of Bob Etheridge’s videotaped spazz-out the other day. They find Republican Renee Ellmers at 39, Etheridge at 38, and, weirdly, libertarian Tom Rose at 13. (Note that Ellmers has $5K on hand and Rose hasn’t filed a report.) Tom Jensen offers a note of caution, though, pointing out that a poll PPP did immediately after Joe Wilson’s “You lie!” embarrassment also showed the incumbent down a point – but it’s extremely unlikely the race looks anything like that today. Of course, SC-02 is quite a bit more GOP-friendly than NC-02 is Dem-friendly.

DCCC: The Hill has a follow-up piece on the shameful state of DCCC dues payments. Even at this late date, retiring members Brian Baird, Vic Snyder, Dennis Moore, Bart Gordon, and John Tanner (who is a member of leadership) are still way behind on their dues, and some have even contributed nothing, despite huge warchests. Of course, this is only a very partial list of deadbeats.

Moose Lady: For those of you who like to keep track of Sarah Palin’s endorsements, well, she’s backing Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-05), Star Parker (CA-37 – I know, very lulzy), and Rep. Mary Fallin (OK-Gov).

Facebook: We’re currently at 480 fans on SSP’s Facebook page. We’d really, really like to get to 500 – and you also know we ain’t too proud to beg – so won’t you please “like” us?

These are all states with filing deadlines in June

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here .  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

KS has 4 congressional districts: 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans

NH has 2 congressional districts: Both  Democrats

OK has 5 congressional districts: 1 Democrats and 4 Republicans

RI has 2 congressional districts: Both  Democrats

WA has 9 congressional districts: 6 Democrats and 3 Republicans

The districts held by Democrats are



                                     Confirmed

dist    Cook Prob Repub Incumbent     Challenger? rating

KS-02    R+7    .64      Boyda          Yes          Vul

KS-03    R+4    .50      Moore          Yes          Mostly safe

NH-01    R+0    .78      Shea-Porter    Yes          Probably safe  

NH-02    D+3    .84      Hodes          Yes          Hard to say

OK-02    R+5    .25      Boren          No           Safe

RI-01    D+16   .38      Kennedy        No           Safe

RI-02    D+13   .51      Langevin       No           Safe

WA-01    D+7    .46      Inslee         Yes          Safe

WA-02    D+3    .61      Larsen         No           Safe

WA-03    D+0    .61      Baird          No           Safe

WA-06    D+6    .33      Dicks          No           Safe

WA-07    D+30   .15      McDermott      No           Safe

WA-09    D+6    .26      Smith          No           Safe

Those held by Republicans

KS-01 R+20 0.70

KS-01 is most of KS, except for the eastern and southeastern parts, bordering OK, CO, and NE

Moran, first elected in 1996, has won easily, often without a Democratic opponent. In 2006 he got 79% against John Doll, although Doll raised only $62,000.

This year, Doll might run again, but the only confirmed James Bordonaro (no web site yet)

KS-04 R+12 .48

KS-04 is in southern KS, towards the eastern part, bordering OK

Tiahrt first elected in 1994, has won easily against opponents with very little money

This year, he faces Donald Betts

OK-01 R+13 .24

OK-01 is an oddly shaped district in the northeastern part of OK; it includes Tulsa and a narrow strip north to the KS border, and then a wider section south of Tulsa

Sullivan, first elected in 2002, has gotten steadily larger shares of the vote

There is no confirmed challenger

OK-03 R+18 .50

OK-03 is the panhandle of OK and the northwestern part of the rest of the state, bordeing CO, TX, and KS.

Lucas, first elected in 1994, has mostly won easily against underfunded opponents

There is no confirmed challenger

OK-04 R+13 .40

OK-04 is the southwestern part of OK, bordering TX and including souther suburbs of Oklahoma City

Cole, first elected in 2002, won a close race in 2002 but has not had a well-funded challenger since then

There is no confirmed challenger

OK-05 R+12 .12

OK-05 is shaped more or less like a stair in central OK, including Oklahoma City

Fallin, first elected in 2006, won 60-37.

The confirmed challenger is Bert Smith

WA-04 R+13 .55

WA-04 is the center of the state including Yakima, and bordering OR

Hastings, first elected in 1994, has won reasonably easily even against opponents with some funding

The only confirmed challenger is George Fearing

WA-05 R+7 .50

WA-05 is the eastern part of the state, bordering Canada, OR, and ID

Rodgers, first elected in 2004, had a tough race in 2006, beating Peter Goldmark 56-44 and spending almost $2 million (Goldmark spent about $1.2 million

There is no confirmed challenger

WA-08 D+2  .59

WA-08 includes the eastern edge of Seattle and other land east of Lake Washington

Reichert, first elected in 2004, had a close race in 2006 against Darcy Burner.  

Burner is running again, and has a good chance

Summary:

Kansas – I’m worried about Boyda, although she beat Ryun last time.  

NH – Shea Porter won 51-49 against an incumbent, while raising less than $300,000 (her opponent, Jeb Bradley, had more than triple that).  She should win again

OK – looks like everyone is pretty safe

RI – both congressmen are safe

WA – Reichert is vulnerable