Tag: Survey USA

CA-Sen: Biden alert! The VPOTUS will do a fundraiser for Barbara Boxer next month in Silicon Valley, followed by a next-day affair in the City of Angels. President Obama’s already done several events for Boxer, but of course, CA is damn enormous and expensive.

FL-Sen: We often criticize candidates for making phony ad buys which are really just pure media plays – but usually they aren’t this obvious about it. Zillionaire asshole Jeff Greene, ostensibly running for senate in Florida, is running ads on cable television… in Washington, DC. Greene is trying to goad the House Ethics Committee into investigating some earmark activity on Kendrick Meek’s part. I doubt this is going to work. Oh, and of course no word on the size of the buy. I mean, why even bother?

SC-Sen: The South Carolina Democratic Party turned back Vic Rawl’s challenge to Alvin Greene’s shocking primary win, citing a lack of evidence that would mandate an attempt to overturn the election results.

AL-Gov: If Tim James really wanted to stop a Republican from winning an election, he should have given that $200,000 to me. Instead, the money that he’s blown on a statewide recount has actually cost him ten votes so far, with 59 of 67 counties (representing 94% of the state’s population) having finished their second count. James trails second-place finisher Robert Bentley by 177 votes now, as opposed to 167 after election night. I really wonder who advised him on this move.

OH-Gov: Despite his repeated claims that he wasn’t very involved in Lehman Brother’s business operations, John Kasich still felt threatened enough by his connection that one of his staffers engaged in a little sideline duty – he advised Ohio’s largest public pension fund on how best to spin its nine-figure losses attributable to the Lehman debacle. Ah, who doesn’t love some nice shady commingling?

NC-02: Civitas hired SUSA to conduct a snap poll of the NC-02 race, in the wake of Bob Etheridge’s videotaped spazz-out the other day. They find Republican Renee Ellmers at 39, Etheridge at 38, and, weirdly, libertarian Tom Rose at 13. (Note that Ellmers has $5K on hand and Rose hasn’t filed a report.) Tom Jensen offers a note of caution, though, pointing out that a poll PPP did immediately after Joe Wilson’s “You lie!” embarrassment also showed the incumbent down a point – but it’s extremely unlikely the race looks anything like that today. Of course, SC-02 is quite a bit more GOP-friendly than NC-02 is Dem-friendly.

DCCC: The Hill has a follow-up piece on the shameful state of DCCC dues payments. Even at this late date, retiring members Brian Baird, Vic Snyder, Dennis Moore, Bart Gordon, and John Tanner (who is a member of leadership) are still way behind on their dues, and some have even contributed nothing, despite huge warchests. Of course, this is only a very partial list of deadbeats.

Moose Lady: For those of you who like to keep track of Sarah Palin’s endorsements, well, she’s backing Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-05), Star Parker (CA-37 – I know, very lulzy), and Rep. Mary Fallin (OK-Gov).

Facebook: We’re currently at 480 fans on SSP’s Facebook page. We’d really, really like to get to 500 – and you also know we ain’t too proud to beg – so won’t you please “like” us?

The Bean Walker, Iowa’s copycat version of The Drudge Report, was thrilled to link to the latest approval numbers from Survey USA yesterday:

Iowa

Pres. Obama: 45 / 51

Sen. Grassley: 54 / 34

Sen. Harkin: 49 / 38

Gov. Culver: 36 / 51

This statewide poll of 600 adults was conducted on August 26 and 27 and is said to have a margin of error of 4 percent. It’s the first time any pollster has found the president below 50 percent approval in Iowa, and the first time any pollster has found the governor’s approval in the 30s. For more details about various demographic groups in this poll, you can find Culver’s chart here, charts on Harkin and Grassley here, and Obama’s chart here.

Looking at Survey USA’s trendlines for Culver since he took office, I noticed that Culver’s disapproval number is basically unchanged this summer, but his approval number has dropped significantly from 42 percent in June and 44 percent in July to 36 percent in late August.

Before anyone panics, note that Survey USA’s approval numbers for Culver tend to run low compared to other pollsters. In early July, the poll commissioned by The Iowa Republican blog found Culver’s approve/disapprove numbers to be 53 percent/41 percent. Later the same month, Hill Research Consultants’ poll for the Iowa First Foundation found Culver’s favorability at 52 percent. (The Iowa First Foundation did not release the governor’s approval number from that poll, but you better believe they would have if the number had been in the 30s or even the low 40s.) Meanwhile, Survey USA pegged Culver’s approval at 44 percent on July 20.

Survey USA’s numbers for Obama, Harkin and Grassley are also noticeably down in the latest poll. Obama is at a record low in Iowa. Grassley’s approval of 54 percent is the lowest Survey USA has found in at least four years. I couldn’t find a similar graph for Harkin’s numbers, but it’s been a very long time since I can remember seeing his approval rating below 50.

Of course, it’s possible that the recession and the health care debate have affected Iowans’ view of all political leaders. Still, I would like to see these numbers confirmed by some other pollster. Even with the best sampling techniques, approximately 1 in 20 polls is wrong just by chance.

I also agree with Steve Singiser that if Culver were this unpopular in Iowa, Democrat Curt Hanson would not have won yesterday’s special election in Iowa House district 90 (a swing district). The Republicans ran at least two television ads linking Hanson to Culver (see here and here).

I’m looking forward to the next Selzer and Associates poll for the Des Moines Register, which probably will come later this month or in early October.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

UPDATE: Bleeding Heartland user ragbrai08 noticed this:

The sample composition:

D-28

R-34

NP-35

Obviously, if considering registered adults, the D/R fractions should be reversed. However, back in July, they used:

D-38

R-24

NP-34

so the Dem fraction was too high back then. Conclusion? Perhaps the July survey was a bit too favorable, and perhaps this one a bit too unfavorable.

In an off-year election, turnout among no-party voters is likely to be lower. Even with a demoralized Democratic base, I’d be surprised if Iowa’s electorate next year was comprised of 28 percent Democrats and 34 percent Republicans. Right now Democrats have a voter registration advantage of about 100,000 over Republicans.

Survey USA released a new batch of approval ratings for governors based on polls taken June 16. Iowa’s Chet Culver was at 42 percent approval and 51 percent disapproval. The previous SUSA poll in Iowa, taken in late April, found similar numbers for Culver: 42 percent approval and 50 percent disapproval.

CORRECTION: I did not realize that SUSA also conducted a poll in late May, which showed somewhat better numbers for Culver: 48 approve, 47 disapprove.

Probably this is just statistical noise, and Culver’s support is somewhere in the 40s. Alternatively, if you have some hypothesis that would explain why the governor’s support rose in May but dropped by mid-June, please post a comment.

Click here to see all of SUSA’s approval numbers for Culver since he became governor.

It would be nice if some other polling firm released a new Iowa survey soon.

Having noticed that Culver’s SUSA numbers bounced up last May and June after being in net negative territory from February through April 2008, I wondered whether a “legislative session effect” might have dragged him down from February through April of this year. Either that was not the case, or the weaker economy this year has prevented the governor from getting a post-session bounce.

Approval ratings in the low 40s are outside the comfort zone for an incumbent, but I wouldn’t hit the panic button yet. SUSA has tended to measure Culver’s support at lower levels than some other pollsters, and most governors have seen their approval ratings slip during the past year, presumably because of the economy and the fiscal problems affecting almost every state.

I couldn’t find any breakdown of Culver’s support among Democrats, Republicans and independents either at this site or on Survey USA’s site. If anyone has those numbers, please post a comment or send me an e-mail (desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com). I still think a large number of Democrats and independents who may not “approve” of Culver would choose him in a heartbeat over Chris Rants or Bob Vander Plaats, who are most committed to running for governor.

We’ll have a better idea of the governor’s re-election prospects when we see polling of head-to-head matchups with potential Republican challengers. Some of the Republicans considering this race would be stronger than others in terms of personal appeal or fundraising (though Culver will probably be able to outspend even the best GOP fundraisers).

Finally, keep in mind that despite ups and downs in the economy, Iowa hasn’t voted an incumbent governor out of office since 1962.

Share any thoughts about Culver’s chances or the GOP gubernatorial primary in this thread. Who has the potential to overcome Vander Plaats’ head start on campaigning? Can Rants reinvent himself as a likable politician? Who would benefit from a more crowded Republican field? Will the GOP primary be negative enough to do lasting damage to the eventual nominee?

Final note: Swing State Project currently considers the Iowa governor’s race to be safe D. I would rate it as likely D, and the Culver-skeptic contingent at Bleeding Heartland would probably argue for a lean D rating.

[Crossposted @ DitchMitchKY.com]

The sparkling wine bottles will be popping at Fletcher/Rudolph 2007 HQ today! 

The August Survey USA approval/disapproval tracking numbers are out for Kentucky Governor Ernie Fletcher (R), and they show that the scandal-plagued Republican’s approval has topped 40 percent for the first time in over two years (the tracking graph only records back to May 2005).

Why are approval numbers that would scream nothing but political doom anywhere else in the nation sweet music to the politically tone-deaf ears of Ernie Fletcher?  Well, after all, it was only a year ago this month that Fletcher’s approval bottomed out at 24 percent.  [Keep on the sunny side, always on the sunny side!  Anybody got a broom for pedagogically challenged running mate Robbie Rudolph to use as a prop?]

Of course, this month’s upward movement was a statistically insignificant one point (Aug:40/57; Jul:39/57), but all statistics are insignificant to the Fletcher camp, whether they’re the ones showing Kentucky’s sorry state of health, education, or business climate.  [Keep on the sunny side, always on the sunny side!]

Where’s Fletcher’s big gain coming from?  Among Republicans and conservatives.

In the last month, Fletcher’s approval/disapproval went from 58/39 among Republicans to 62/35.  In March of this year, Fletcher was at 46/50 with that group.  So, he’s consolidating his party base, but he’ll need significantly more than 70 percent support from Republicans at the ballot box, especially considering that Republican turnout is likely to be somewhat suppressed, to pull off a November win.  Republicans accounted for 34 percent of the latest survey.

Fletcher’s popularity this month among conservatives rebounded to 57/39 from 52/46 after plummeting between June and July.  Conservatives were 33 percent of this survey.

There was no significant movement among males, females, Democrats, independents, moderates, or liberals.

By region, there was no significant change in western Kentucky, Louisville, or eastern Kentucky. 

There was, however, a statistically significant jump in Fletcher’s approval in northern Kentucky, where the governor went from 37/57 to 45/53.