[Crossposted @ DitchMitchKY.com]
The sparkling wine bottles will be popping at Fletcher/Rudolph 2007 HQ today!
The August Survey USA approval/disapproval tracking numbers are out for Kentucky Governor Ernie Fletcher (R), and they show that the scandal-plagued Republican’s approval has topped 40 percent for the first time in over two years (the tracking graph only records back to May 2005).
Why are approval numbers that would scream nothing but political doom anywhere else in the nation sweet music to the politically tone-deaf ears of Ernie Fletcher? Well, after all, it was only a year ago this month that Fletcher’s approval bottomed out at 24 percent. [Keep on the sunny side, always on the sunny side! Anybody got a broom for pedagogically challenged running mate Robbie Rudolph to use as a prop?]
Of course, this month’s upward movement was a statistically insignificant one point (Aug:40/57; Jul:39/57), but all statistics are insignificant to the Fletcher camp, whether they’re the ones showing Kentucky’s sorry state of health, education, or business climate. [Keep on the sunny side, always on the sunny side!]
Where’s Fletcher’s big gain coming from? Among Republicans and conservatives.
In the last month, Fletcher’s approval/disapproval went from 58/39 among Republicans to 62/35. In March of this year, Fletcher was at 46/50 with that group. So, he’s consolidating his party base, but he’ll need significantly more than 70 percent support from Republicans at the ballot box, especially considering that Republican turnout is likely to be somewhat suppressed, to pull off a November win. Republicans accounted for 34 percent of the latest survey.
Fletcher’s popularity this month among conservatives rebounded to 57/39 from 52/46 after plummeting between June and July. Conservatives were 33 percent of this survey.
There was no significant movement among males, females, Democrats, independents, moderates, or liberals.
By region, there was no significant change in western Kentucky, Louisville, or eastern Kentucky.
There was, however, a statistically significant jump in Fletcher’s approval in northern Kentucky, where the governor went from 37/57 to 45/53.