The Bean Walker, Iowa’s copycat version of The Drudge Report, was thrilled to link to the latest approval numbers from Survey USA yesterday:
Iowa
Pres. Obama: 45 / 51
Sen. Grassley: 54 / 34
Sen. Harkin: 49 / 38
Gov. Culver: 36 / 51
This statewide poll of 600 adults was conducted on August 26 and 27 and is said to have a margin of error of 4 percent. It’s the first time any pollster has found the president below 50 percent approval in Iowa, and the first time any pollster has found the governor’s approval in the 30s. For more details about various demographic groups in this poll, you can find Culver’s chart here, charts on Harkin and Grassley here, and Obama’s chart here.
Looking at Survey USA’s trendlines for Culver since he took office, I noticed that Culver’s disapproval number is basically unchanged this summer, but his approval number has dropped significantly from 42 percent in June and 44 percent in July to 36 percent in late August.
Before anyone panics, note that Survey USA’s approval numbers for Culver tend to run low compared to other pollsters. In early July, the poll commissioned by The Iowa Republican blog found Culver’s approve/disapprove numbers to be 53 percent/41 percent. Later the same month, Hill Research Consultants’ poll for the Iowa First Foundation found Culver’s favorability at 52 percent. (The Iowa First Foundation did not release the governor’s approval number from that poll, but you better believe they would have if the number had been in the 30s or even the low 40s.) Meanwhile, Survey USA pegged Culver’s approval at 44 percent on July 20.
Survey USA’s numbers for Obama, Harkin and Grassley are also noticeably down in the latest poll. Obama is at a record low in Iowa. Grassley’s approval of 54 percent is the lowest Survey USA has found in at least four years. I couldn’t find a similar graph for Harkin’s numbers, but it’s been a very long time since I can remember seeing his approval rating below 50.
Of course, it’s possible that the recession and the health care debate have affected Iowans’ view of all political leaders. Still, I would like to see these numbers confirmed by some other pollster. Even with the best sampling techniques, approximately 1 in 20 polls is wrong just by chance.
I also agree with Steve Singiser that if Culver were this unpopular in Iowa, Democrat Curt Hanson would not have won yesterday’s special election in Iowa House district 90 (a swing district). The Republicans ran at least two television ads linking Hanson to Culver (see here and here).
I’m looking forward to the next Selzer and Associates poll for the Des Moines Register, which probably will come later this month or in early October.
Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.
UPDATE: Bleeding Heartland user ragbrai08 noticed this:
The sample composition:
D-28
R-34
NP-35Obviously, if considering registered adults, the D/R fractions should be reversed. However, back in July, they used:
D-38
R-24
NP-34so the Dem fraction was too high back then. Conclusion? Perhaps the July survey was a bit too favorable, and perhaps this one a bit too unfavorable.
In an off-year election, turnout among no-party voters is likely to be lower. Even with a demoralized Democratic base, I’d be surprised if Iowa’s electorate next year was comprised of 28 percent Democrats and 34 percent Republicans. Right now Democrats have a voter registration advantage of about 100,000 over Republicans.
First, there is no doubt Obama’s and Democrats’ poll numbers have fallen due primarily to poor messaging on health care and secondarily due to the continuing recession. I’m confident public angst will pass regarding bailouts and the stimulus as the economy recovers, and people slowly start realizing and accepting the reality that Obama, and even Bush to a small extent with last year’s Wall Street bailout, saved us from a true depression and hastened recovery. But right now we’re still suffering politically from having public anxiety on our watch. And as I noted above, health care messaging has been awful. I have been thinking increasingly that Obama and his team screwed up the legislative push, too, but I’m walking back that thinking a little after reading conservative intellectual Norm Ornstein’s recent column defending Obama’s health care approach. It may be Obama is doing the only smart thing he could do and has no way of doing health care without taking short-term lumps that will heal over time after a reform bill is signed.
Second, I think it’s a routine mistake of political junkies and, far more importantly, the political corporate media, to get hung up so much on the details of poll numbers like these when no election (other than the sporadic special) is arising. Health care poll numbers matter in that they can affect what Congress has the balls to do on legislation, and to a lesser extent overall Presidential and Congressional job approval can have a similar affect on Congressional legislative activity. But whether Obama’s Iowa job approval is at 45 or 50 or 55 isn’t material in the big picture of the midterms and associated state elections that are over a year away.
Third, I think you hit the nail on the head on the significance of special elections as a “canary in the coal mine,” in this case a REVERSE canary effect since we WON the damn thing in a competitive seat. It’s worth noting we won toss-up specials recently also in the Kentucky state Senate (a pick-up!) and the Alabama state Senate (a defense), after having lost a few specials in Democratic local offices in various states very early this year. Real elections are the REAL test of public opinion, and it’s apparent Republican giddiness is both premature and misplaced.
FWIW
The SUSA Iowa polls, along with their Minnesota and Wisconsin polls, are paid for by Hubbard Broadcasting TV stations. Stanley Hubbard (CEO of Hubbard Broadcasting) and his family have been big time supporters of Republicans for years. Last cycle Hubbard and his son (Also named Stanley) made $115,500 in political contibutions, the vast majority of which went to Republicans (including John McCain, Norm Coleman and Michelle Bachmann).
http://www.campaignmoney.com/p…
Not saying that the SUSA poll is tainted but Hubbard’s TV stations have been accused of having a right leaning slant for years.