Tag: Betty McCollum

• CA-Sen, CA-Gov: I’m starting to think there’s some actual truth to this “Whitman is slipping (having passed the point of diminishing returns on saturation advertising)” meme that’s developing, perhaps illustrated most clearly in yesterday’s Rasmussen poll of the general. That may also be at play in the primary, though, where a new poll from Capital Weekly (by Probolsky Research) finds a smaller (though still dominant) edge for Meg Whitman in the GOP primary; she leads Steve Poizner 47-19 (a 28-pt. lead, quite different from the Field Poll’s 49-point lead last month). Over on the Senate side, Tom Campbell seems to be putting some distance between himself and his competitors; he’s at 31%, with Carly Fiorina at 17 and Chuck DeVore at 14. (No general election matchups were tested.)

• FL-Sen: Although everyone’s sitting and watching, the other shoe still hasn’t dropped yet in Florida. The state GOP is already preparing for the likely independent bid from Charlie Crist, telling its other candidates that they can’t back anybody who isn’t running under the GOP banner. They’ve also rolled out their chief enforcer, Dick Cheney, who endorsed Marco Rubio and who will be inviting Crist-supporting GOPers on hunting trips. Meanwhile, there’s growing speculation that the credit card/fancy-livin’ scandal that’s engulfing the RPOF, and has taken some of the shine off Rubio’s halo, may actually spatter mud as far afield as Crist himself (via for state party chair and key Crist ally Jim Greer). The possibility of a split between two damaged GOPers may be luring a new Democrat to the race, too: billionaire investor Jeff Greene is considering jumping in the primary field (although, considering that every news account about him today seems to be more interested in his relations with Mike Tyson, Heidi Fleiss, and Ron Howard, than with his political chops, I doubt this will be more than a curiosity).

• LA-Sen: While everyone’s still waiting to see if right-wing gadfly James Cain shows up to challenge David Vitter, another lesser-known member of the teabagging set has confirmed that he’s going to run as an independent in the Senate race. Mike Spears, owner of a web design firm, apparently doesn’t have self-funding capacity. He offers up a 5-point plan for “restoring the America he knew growing up,” point 1 of which is the rather ominous, if weird-sounding, “neutralizing party strongholds.”

• PA-Sen: Joe Biden is making his first trip back to Scranton since his election, to stump for Arlen Specter. Fellow members of the local political establishment Bob Casey, Paul Kanjorski, and Chris Carney will be at the event too.

• WA-Sen: Here’s some more food for thought for Dino Rossi, who may still be contemplating a Senate bid (and it seems to be what Tommy Thompson and George Pataki already seemed to understand). No one* in the last decade has launched a Senate bid this late in the game and gone on to win (* = Frank Lautenberg won under unusual circumstances as a last minute fill-in for Bob Torricelli). The closest anyone has come is Mark Dayton, who won in 2000 despite announcing on April 3. The majority of successful non-incumbents ran for more than one year. And prominent members of the state GOP are starting to see the handwriting on the wall, too: state House minority leader Richard DeBolt got tired of waiting and endorsed state Sen. Don Benton in the race instead.

• KS-Gov: This isn’t the right time for Sam Brownback’s approvals to go negative for the first time in years; he’s at 41/47 according to SurveyUSA. Brownback, of course, is looking to make the leap to Governor, facing Democratic state Sen. Tom Holland. Fellow Senator Pat Roberts — less of social values warrior and more of an uncontroversial Main Street type — fares much better at 51/38.

• MN-Gov: Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak picked up a couple more endorsements, starting with Rep. Betty McCollum (who represents mostly St. Paul, rather than Minneapolis). McCollum had previously backed Steve Kelley, who dropped out several months ago. And while the SEIU won’t be endorsing, its state president, Javier Morillo-Alicea, individually weighed in on Rybak’s behalf.

• OR-Gov: Blue Oregon has a rundown on the money chase in the Oregon gubernatorial race. GOPer and ex-NBAer Chris Dudley has been raising the most, but also spending the most: raising $1.3 million over the course of the race, but with $276K CoH. Democrat John Kitzhaber has raised $1.2 million, but is sitting on $575K. Everyone else is down in the five digits.

• MO-08: Tommy Sowers has been attracting a lot of attention this week with his second straight quarter of outraising Jo Ann Emerson, but she retaliated with an internal poll showing that Sowers has a long way to go toward knocking her off in this R+15 district. According to pollster American Viewpoint, she leads 71-18.

• NY-23: More evidence that the institutional might is pushing away from 2009 spoiler Doug Hoffman and toward investment banker Matt Doheny instead, for the GOP nomination. Hoffman’s fundraising numbers for Q1 were weak: he took in $14K in outside contributions, and loaned himself $100K. He’s sitting on $263K CoH, but also $205K in debt.

• NY-29: We Ask America has been trying to break into the polling game lately, although we gotta wonder what’s up with their love of significant digits. Are they that sure about their results? They polled the 29th, finding that, if the special election were held today, GOP Corning mayor Tom Reed would beat currently-little-known Democratic candidate Matthew Zeller 41.38%-24.01%. A majority also support having a special election, rather than waiting till November to fill the seat.

• SD-AL: The first candidate to hit the TV airwaves in the GOP primary in South Dakota isn’t the well-known one (SoS Chris Nelson) or the one with money (Blake Curd), but, well, the other one. State Rep. Kristi Noem is up with an introductory spot.

• VA-02: This may seem way, way down in the weeds, but it could help Glenn Nye out a lot, considering that he has the most Navy-centric district in the nation. The main fight of Nye’s short political career has been to keep the Navy from moving one of its carrier groups from Norfolk to Jacksonville; while he lost the first skirmish on that, the Navy now says the move won’t happen until 2019, sparing his district any immediate economic pain.

• CA-LG: The Democrats in the California state Assembly somehow wised up and, reversing their previous decision, decided to confirm moderate Republican state Sen. Abel Maldonado to the vacant Lt. Governor position. With the 51-17 vote, that means that Maldonado will be opening up the Democratic-leaning SD-15 on the central coast, which will be filled by special election (and has the potential to get the Dems one step closer to the magic 2/3s mark in the state Senate).

• WA-Init: In the wake of Oregon voters approving a high-income surtax, it looks like Washington may follow their lead. Proposed Initiative 1077 would create an income tax (Washington currently has none) on individuals making more than $200K, and in exchange lower property taxes and eliminate the nettlesome B&O tax. SurveyUSA polled the topic and found an almost astonishingly high level of support: 66 are in favor, 27 against. More evidence that new taxes, when properly framed, can be a winner at the ballot box.

• RNC: The RNC is subtly getting involved in the HI-01 special election, transferring $90K to the state party in March that went toward a TV spot for Charles Djou. The bigger story about the RNC today, though, may be about the financial disarray in its house: it’s spending more money courting top-dollar donors that it actually gets back from them.

• WATN?: After weighing a variety of different possible candidacies (state CFO? FL-25?), we’re glad to see 2008 FL-18 candidate Annette Taddeo taking another stab at elective office, as we need to expand our Hispanic bench in the bluening Miami area. She’s running for a seat on the Miami-Dade County Council.

I’ll say it up front, I’ve always been bullish on Al Franken, even when others here were ripping on him, and already giving up on the race, and lamenting how the race would’ve been better with Ciresi or Nelson-Pallmeyer.  And one of the arguments used against Franken was that he had pissed off some other prominent Minnesota Democrats like Congresspeople Betty McCollum and Keith Ellison and Amy Klobuchar.  There was quite a bit of hand-wringing going on.

Well, take a look below the fold to see what’s happened in the last couple days.  (And from the links, yes, I got this stuff from MN Publius.

To start off, last week Al Franken visited homeowners facing foreclosure with Keith Ellison.  And unlike previous statements, Ellison offered praise for Franken.

Franken and Ellison also took part in last Saturday’s Minneapolis Urban League’s annual Family Day Celebration at North Commons Park and made stops at two small shopping malls in South Minneapolis. Franken said he’s proud to be on the Democratic ticket headed by U.S. Senator Barack Obama and including Ellison, who is seeking his second congressional term.

“He [Obama] is going to need as many Democratic U.S. senators as possible to make sure that his agenda gets through,” candidate Franken said of Obama’s potential presidency. “I know that Keith has worked hard to get bills passed for addressing and alleviating the housing crisis. When I get to Washington, I look forward to standing beside Keith as we take the next step.”

Having two Senate Democrats in Congress will be helpful to push forward needed housing and anti-predatory mortgage lending legislation, said Ellison. “We need both houses [of Congress] working together and an administration working for us. Al isn’t just another Democrat, but a dynamic, energetic, charismatic voice that can help rally the public will to real solutions.“

Then came the news that Sen. Amy Klobuchar is campaigning for Franken.

I’ve gotten to know Al well as he’s traveled the state building a grassroots movement for change, and I know he’ll be a champion for Minnesota families in Washington.

On issues like health care, energy, the war in Iraq, and our economy here at home, Al will reject the failed policies of the Bush administration and fight for change. In fact, just today Al offered some bold, common-sense solutions to strengthen Minnesota’s schools. Al will never sell out to the special interests – he’ll stay loyal to Minnesotans and advocate everyday to help the middle class.

And last but not least, Betty McCollum, who acknowledges her earlier reservations about Franken.

“Crisis” now describes a long list of issues facing Minnesota families and our country. From healthcare to energy prices, the economy to ending the Iraq war – America faces serious challenges that require urgent action.  In Washington, we need leaders who are willing to take America in a new direction.  I am proud of the work Democrats in the U.S. House have accomplished to pass important legislation.  Unfortunately, much of our work has been stalled in the U.S. Senate by an obstructionist Republican minority.  That needs to change.

As I look forward to 2009, I want to be represented in the U.S. Senate by two Minnesota senators who will support and vote to advance our positive, action oriented Democratic agenda to strengthen our economy, keep our nation secure, and invest in our country’s future.  That means in this year’s race for the U.S. Senate I will be voting for Al Franken.

This spring I voiced concerns about material from Al’s past career. To have remained silent when asked would have been hypocritical and dishonest.  I am confident my concerns have been heard and since then I have watched Al’s campaign take steps to address these matters. Now, I believe Al and his campaign are appropriately focused on building a solid relationship with voters based on our shared Minnesota values, ideals, and hopes for the future.  Like all candidates, Al understands that he is not only asking Minnesotans for their vote, but for their trust. As November 4th approaches, Al Franken will earn the trust of Minnesotans and I intend to work with him to win this election.

Fourth District DFLers, thank you for your on-going support.  This year I will continue to campaign hard to turn out the vote to elect Barack Obama to the White House, Al Franken to the U.S. Senate, and win my own re-election to Congress.  I know we will all work together in the 4th District to win in November and together take Minnesota and America in a new direction.

Franken has also just released this powerful ad called “Dr. Bob”, of a conservative Republican who praises Al for his patriotism and his commitment to our troops.

And please, don’t cite the SurveyUSA poll as evidence of how flawed Franken is.  The poll’s crosstabs are bonkers.

Lurking just beneath the surface was a raw reality for the Coleman campaign: the poll’s partisan splits were completely bonkers.

The poll showed a sample of 33% self-identified DFLers and 32% self-identified Republicans. I wasn’t the only one to notice how insane that split is — my former colleague Eric Black also noticed:

But Rasmussen, which doesn’t release full cross-tabs to non-members like me, suggests that Coleman’s share of Democrats has declined from 20 to 10 percent and that this may be the factor that cost him the lead he held a month ago.

Little change

SUSA has shown little change since its previous poll on the race a month earlier. The most suspicious thing to me about SUSA’s current poll is that the Minnesota sample consisted of 33 percent Democrats and 32 percent Republicans.  Most polls (including the previous SUSA poll in Minnesota) find that Democrats outnumber Republicans by 10-plus percentage points. The poll scholars on whom I rely for guidance tend to have a higher general opinion of SUSA than Rasmussen (and not too high an opinion of any robo-dialers). But if you’re looking for a reason to disbelieve this one, with its large and sturdy Coleman lead, the partisan makeup of the sample is suspicious.

Eric is in the right neighborhood here.  Most polls shoot for about a 36-28 DFL advantage in party self-identification, perhaps a couple of points more due to Barack Obama’s crushing victory in the Super-Duper Tuesday precinct caucuses. SurveyUSA is simply way out in left field with this poll.

According to one reader who apparently has a PhD in such things, if you multiply out the difference in partisan split between the last SurveyUSA poll and this one, Franken is actually doing about four points better than the previous S-USA poll — but I haven’t confirmed that yet…largely because I would need a PhD to understand what the heck I was doing.

I’ll add to that.  From looking at the crosstabs a bit closer, another thing doesn’t make sense.  Coleman’s best age group is young people.  Does that make ANY sense to anybody out there??  Like I’ve said in the past, to take this poll at face value, even forgetting the bizarre partisan split, would be to say that come November, there’s going to be a shitload (a statistical term) of young people that vote for Barack Obama for President, and then pull the lever for Norm Coleman.  Let that sink in.  It makes about as much sense as “Vegetarians for Bush”.

And all this is before the GOP convention heads to St. Paul, and Coleman is forced to be tied to the hip to the national party, which he’s trying to distance himself from.  Senators from other states who are up for re-election are skipping out, but Coleman can’t.  And keep in mind Al’s torrid fundraising pace, which will allow him to be financially competitive with Coleman.

So please, people, stop writing Franken off.  It doesn’t do us any good.