Today, a continuation of a short series looking into the factors affecting the current political climate. It’s no secret that the country isn’t too happy about the economy, the war in Iraq, and the direction the country is headed in. But for me at least, I like to see the data. First, the right track/wrong track question:
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The trend is clear, the numbers are huge: almost three quarters say we’re off on the wrong track. Much more below.
It is also interesting to see that there was a clear uptick in those that say the country is on the right track just before the 2004 and 2006 elections, but not in Fall 2005 or 2007. It looks like we’re on track for another one now in 2008 as well. Campaign dollars at work? Optimism that one’s preferred party will win?
A longer look back shows the wrong track numbers were also about this high for the 1976, 1980, 1992, and 1994 elections:
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Iraq
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The public continues to believe that the war in Iraq is not worth it. There’s not much news here over the past year; the economy has taken precedence in the minds of many voters more recently.
The Economy
There have been dramatic changes in the perception of the economy in the past year (I’m not going to go into much of the actual economic data; after all, in politics, perception is reality). The numbers simply dove off a cliff. About 80% think the economy is not doing that great (left) and hardly anybody thinks it’s getting better (right):
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These numbers are just as bad as they were in 1980 and 1990:
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Rising prices surely are contributing to opinions of the economy; here’s the price for milk and gas over the past few years:
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Trust and the Issues
So which party do voters trust on the issues they see as important? Rasmussen has been asking that question every month for more than a year now, so we can see how things have developed:
There’s nothing major, although it looks like some trends away from Democrats on Iraq and national security, while there’s been some improvement on the economy. At the same time, Rasmussen (and others) also show that the importance of Iraq in voter’s minds has been decreasing while the economy takes precedence.
In other words, from the perspective of issues the voters care about, the political environment is becoming only more favorable to Democrats.
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Polling numbers can be found at pollingreport.com unless otherwiese noted. This is the second in a series looking at the evolution of the political scene since the 2004 and 2006 elections. The first discussed Bush’s approval ratings. Tomorrow, information on party approval, identification and some House numbers; after that, a look at fundraising. Cross posted at Open Left and Daily Kos.