Tag: Open Threads

Happy New Year!

Sorry for the lull–between a succession of family engagements, egg nog binge drinking, and preparing for an upcoming vacation (I’m outta here on the 27th), my attention to the ‘Project has been minimal this weekend.  I hope that you’re all enjoying your holiday weekend–our first one in a long time with incoming Democratic majorities in the House and Senate.  Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from the Swing State Project to you.

Feel free to use this as an open thread.

Have at it, my friends.

A little late with this week’s open thread, but here it is. The TX-23 run-off brings this cycle’s elections to a close. Then we’re on to 2007-08. Speaking of which, Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS), who is pushing 70, is considering retirement according to this report at fellow SoapBlox site BlueSunbelt. Interesting. Very interesting.

Let’s hear it.

P.S. Check out this good article in the Sarasota Herald-Tribune about the efforts the blogosphere had made on behalf of Christine Jennings.

I just wanted to wish each and every one of you a happy Thanksgiving. I have much to be thankful for, and I hope all of you do as well.

The Swing State Project will be taking something of a break this holiday weekend, so feel free to use this as an open thread. And of course, there’s always the diaries as well. Have a great Turkey Day!

(Bumped – promoted by DavidNYC)

Alright, let’s keep the ball rolling. And don’t forget to help fill out the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.

P.S. Please welcome Left in the West to the SoapBlox network. As I’m sure you know, L/W was the place for MT-Sen coverage in 2006 and I’m sure it’ll be a hopping place for more of the same in 2007 & 2008. Now, with user diaries, it can only get better.

P.P.S. Please don’t forget the Blue Majority ActBlue page. We’ve just added netroots hero Larry Kissell’s recount fund to the list.

(Bumped – promoted by DavidNYC)

There are no breaks here at the Swing State Project! One election cycle ends and another begins. I don’t just mean that in a technical sense, either. Several candidates who had little or no prior political experience were able to compensate for that in part by getting a very early start. Paul Hodes, Patrick Murphy and Eric Massa would be some good examples.

Now, I doubt that many people apart from presidential hopefuls) are going to be announcing any runs for office this quickly, but it’s still fun to think about. Here are some topics worth considering:

• Which Senate seats should be our top priority in 2008, both on offense and defense?

• Which members of the House might retire at the end of their terms? How about during their terms (being in the minority sucks), prompting special elections? Who is ready to run in the event of a retirement? This is something to keep a close eye on all next year.

• Who are our most vulnerable new Reps going to be? What, if anything, can we do to help protect them apart from the obvious – ie, giving them tons of scrilla?

Plenty of food for thought!

12:01AM: IA-01 was just snapped up by Democrats.  Feel that blue wave.
11:56PM: Wow.  KS-02 just flipped to the Democrats.
11:51PM: Webb pulls ahead by 3,000 votes in VA-Sen! Looks like Dan called it right – so far.
11:47PM: Amazing.  In IA-02, Dave Loebsack (D) is 4 points ahead of Jim Leach (R) with 57% reporting.
11:32PM: The fun never ends: PA-04 and AZ-05 have flipped Democratic.
11:25PM: Wow… we actually did it.  Democrats have recaptured the House of Representatvies.  More pick-ups are on the way.  Take a minute and savor it, folks.
11:10PM: Add ’em up on the big board: FL-22, NH-01 (I can’t believe it), NY-24, and IN-09.
11:01PM: More pickups! NC-11, FL-16, CT-05, PA-10, AZ-08 and NY-20!
10:58PM: Gary Trauner is up by 51-45 with 51% reporting in WY-AL.
10:46PM: Oh yeah, and Joe Sestak (D) in PA-07 has been called, too.  As an aside, this is a bizarre election.
10:36PM: Zack Space (D) won in OH-18, and did what Francine Busby couldn’t do in June.  Atta boy!
10:24PM: I can’t believe it, but with 81% of the vote, Carol Shea-Porter (D) is edging Jeb Bradley by 900 votes! 
10:19PM: Paul Hodes wins! He’s about to make a speech. WOW! AWESOME!  Put NH-02 on the big board!
10:15PM: Boyda (D) could really do this thing.  With 47% of precincts reporting, she’s up by 54-44 over Ryun.
10:05PM: With 27% reporting, Altmire (D) has 57 and Hart (R) has 43 in PA-04.  This would be a stunning upset.
9:48PM: Keep your eye on KS-02, where Nancy Boyda (D) is leading Rep. Jim Ryun (R) by a 54-44 margin with 23% reporting.
9:29PM: CNN calls IN-02 for Joe Donnelly.  Nice!
9:23PM: CNN calls Yarmuth!  Alright!  Put KY-03 up on the big board!
9:10PM: With 96% in, John Warmuth (D) is up by 51-48 and 6500 votes over Ann Northup in KY-03.
9:05PM: With 46% reporting, Carol Shea-Porter (D) and Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) are neck and neck at 50-50 each, with a 500 vote edge for Shea-Porter.  No one thought this would be a close race.  Holy smokes.
8:47PM: CNN is calling NJ-Sen for Menendez, but last I saw they had Kean leading. Weird. MA-Gov and OH-Gov also called for Dems.

If you can pick one race that’s generally not seen as likely to flip from the Republicans to the Democrats (or vice versa) that could shock the “experts” on Tuesday, which would it be and why?  Which race are you calling to be November 7’s “upset special”?

A while back, I might have said Gary Trauner’s campaign against unpopular Republican Rep. Barbara Cubin for Wyoming’s sole House seat, but in the wake of Cubin’s physical threats against her wheelchair-bound Libertarian opponent, Thomas Rankin (who suffers from multiple sclerosis), a win here by Trauner may still be an upset, but it certainly would no longer be a “shocker”.

Therefore, my pick of the cycle goes out to my boy Bob Shamansky, a 79 year-old former one term wonder Congressman who represented this district from 1980-82.  Ohio is clearly going to be a brutal state for Republicans this year, with a national trend magnified by the dismal unpopularity of outgoing Republican Gov. Bob Taft and the stuck-in-reverse campaign of Kenneth Blackwell to succeed him.  With Strickland and Brown at the top of the ballot, Ohio Democrats are well poised for a revival, and if you believe the latest Columbus Dispatch polls (and I’d understand if you didn’t, given their dismal failure predicting the Reform Ohio Now ballot propositions last year), it could be a clean Democratic sweep of all statewide offices up for grabs this year.

So, why Bob?  While his opponent, Pat Tiberi, breezed through 2004 with 62% of the vote, 2006 is shaping up to be a very, very different year.  For one thing, Tiberi isn’t facing some underfunded gadfly: Shamansky has brought big money to the table–$1.64 million dollars, most of which came from his own bank account.  By contrast, Ed Brown, Tiberi’s challenger in 2004, spent barely over $3,000 on his campaign.  Secondly, intensive Democratic voter registration efforts and changing demographics in Franklin Country turned this seat a lot less red in 2004–Bush won it by the slimmest of margins (51-49), providing a good springboard for an opportunistic House Democratic challenger to make a serious run at Tiberi.  Thirdly, Shamansky’s ads have been very good, alternately using well-executed humor and national heroes on his behalf.

Obviously, I’m banking a lot on my assumption (and hope) that Ohio voters are looking for change this year and are willing to vote for a 79 year-old man to express such desires, as well as my own blatant pro-Shamansky bias, but not a lot of prognosticators are seriously putting this one up on the big board of possible flips.  The result on November 7 could surprise them.