The Cook PVI rates every House district according to how its vote compared to the national Presidential vote in 2000 and 2004. Overall, a majority of the House seats, 234 have at least some Republican lean at the Presidential level. A strong minority, 201, have a Democratic lean. Democrats currently hold 50 seats that tend Republican at the Presidential level while Republicans hold a dwindling number, 15, with a Democratic lean.
Republican held seats with a D PVI were major targets in 21006 and they continue to be major targets this year. The status of these 15 seats in four prediction systems (SSP, Open Left/Chris Bowers, Charlie Cook, and Larry Sabato) are discussed below. These predictions were, for the most part similar and would tend to point to Democrats winning somewhere between 5 and 8 of these seats in the upcoming election. The number would be higher but for feeble efforts in at least three of these districts.
The two most likely seats to flip both on this list and in the entire country are both located in NY state. The troubles and travails of the Republicans in Staten Island based NY-13 sound like the “plot” of an old Mel Brooks film. Chris Bowers over at Open Left gives this D+1 district its most pessimistic rating, “Lean D.” SSP, Cook and Sabato rate it as Likely D. In NY-25, there is a lot less drama but a safer district (D+3) with Dan Maffei leading the last poll by 18 points.
Five of the 15 seats were labeled Tossups by SSP (CT-4, IL-10, NV-3, NJ-3, and NM-1). Chris Bowers also had 5 tossups but he had NM-1 as Lean Dem and added PA-15 as a Tossup. Charlie Cook had 5 Tossups including WA-8 but having IL-10 as Lean Republican. Larry Sabato agreed with Cook on both WA-8 (Toss up) and IL-10 (Lean R). I’d agree with SSP although in my heart of hearts Democrats lead in both NJ-3 and CT-4.
Three or four of ther other seats are labeled competitive and three or four become “safe.” SSP sees one seat as Lean R, WA-8. That makes sense as it is Lean R with Bowers and Tossup elsewhere. Matt Stoller’s pieces from the district are interesting but negative. Darcy Burner has lost the mojo, in fact he sees Obama as sucking all the oxygen and all the juice out of the Washington Governor’s and the WA-8 House race. The incumbent (Reichert) is pushing blue collar like you wouldn’t believe with repeated public appearances in T shirt (usually white) and jeans. Seems to be working.
SSP places IA-4 (the least D of these disericts at D+0) and PA-15 as Likely R. I’ve lived in PA-15 as recently as 1999. He can be winnable if everybody is on the same page. It’s a de-industriaslizing district. Charlie Dent get a pretty stiff challenge from a candidate who barely made the ballot. He’s 30 years out of touch with this district.
PA-6 is a solid D+2 that was barely lost in 2006. Racws to Watch or Likely R. I’d pkace it as Likely R but … SSP is the pessimist. Bowers, Cook, and Sabatp give it Likely R status.
FL-10 was long a favorite at SSP but it has dropped off the list. It’s D+1 and Bowers places it as Likrly R. Otherwise no bites. We have a Mayor rrom a mid-sized town running (Duneddin). Young is the senior GOPer in the House, first elected in 1970. Ralph Regula (retiring) and Alaska’s Don Young follow in the GOP pecking order.
Nobody puts any of the other three on the boards and it is a shame. DE-At Large has a gaudy D+7 PVI with the added allure of Joe Biden running for VP (and the Senate). Yes Castle has a lot of money but this was the year to a) drain the treasury and b) maybe surprise him. If the DCCC is really flush they ought to run a few ads just to see.
NJ-2 is the third most D heavy district on the list. Frank Lo Biondo is getting a little challenge but not the major push Jersey Democrats thought they’d muster.
Peter King represents a sliver of Long Island covering the edges of Nassau and Suffolk counties, Rumor has it he’ll run for Governor in 2010. Then rumor had it he’d be more solidly opposed. King and McHugh could conceivably be all that’s left of the NY GOP at the federal level in under a month.
So what’s your take. Are we more likely to pull a major upset in one of those R+16 type districts we fight in or somehow wind up with the Christmas present from DE-At Large?