If Stuart Rothenberg is right, House Democrats are in for another big year like 2006. He now estimates a Democratic gain of 25-30 seats. Here are his newest ratings:
Here are our latest House ratings. Our latest estimate is a Democratic gain of 25-30 seats.
Any seats not listed are currently considered to be at limited risk for the incumbent party. For our race-by-race analysis, you must subscribe to the print edition of the Report.
# = Moved benefiting Democrats
* = Moved benefiting Republicans
^ = Newly addedPURE TOSS-UP (7 R, 5 D)
AL 5 (Open; Cramer, D)
CT 4 (Shays, R) #
FL 16 (Mahoney, D) *
FL 21 (L. Diaz-Balart, R)
LA 6 (Cazayoux, D) #
MI 7 (Walberg, R) #
NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
NM 2 (Open; Pearce, R) #
NJ 7 (Open; Ferguson, R)
OH 1 (Chabot, R) #
OH 15 (Open; Pryce, R)
PA 11 (Kanjorski, D) *TOSS-UP/TILT REPUBLICAN (10 R, 0 D)
AL 2 (Open; Everett, R) #
FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart, R) #
IL 10 (Kirk, R) #
KY 2 (Open; Lewis, R) #
LA 4 (Open; McCrery, R)
MD 1 (Open; Gilchrest, R) #
MO 9 (Open; Hulshof, R) #
NY 26 (Open; Reynolds, R)
VA 2 (Drake, R) #
WA 8 (Reichert, R)TOSS-UP/TILT DEMOCRATIC (10 R, 4 D)
CA 11 (McNerney, D)
CO 4 (Musgrave, R)
FL 8 (Keller, R) #
GA 8 (Marshall, D)
IL 11 (Open; Weller, R)
KS 2 (Boyda, D)
MI 9 (Knollenberg, R) #
MN 3 (Open; Ramstad, R) #
NJ 3 (Open; Saxton, R)
NM1 (Open; Wilson, R) #
NY 29 (Kuhl, R) #
NC 8 (Hayes, R) #
PA 3 (English, R) #
PA 10 (Carney, D) #LEAN REPUBLICAN (4 R, 1 D)
CA 4 (Open; Doolittle, R) #
ID 1 (Sali, R) #
MO 6 (Graves, R)
OH 2 (Schmidt, R)
TX 22 (Lampson, D)LEAN DEMOCRATIC (5 R, 2 D)
AZ 1 (Open; Renzi, R) #
FL 24 (Feeney, R) #
NV 3 (Porter, R) #
OH 16 (Open; Regula, R) #
PA 4 (Altmire, D)
VA 11 (Open; Davis, R)
WI 8 (Kagen, D) #REPUBLICAN FAVORED (9 R, 0 D)
AZ 3 (Shadegg, R) ^
CA 46 (Rohrabacher, R) ^
FL 13 (Buchanan, R)
IL 6 (Roskam, R)
MN 6 (Bachmann, R)
NE 2 (Terry, R) ^
PA 6 (Gerlach, R)
WV 2 (Capito, R)
WY A-L (Open; Cubin, R) ^DEMOCRAT FAVORED (3 R, 6 D)
AK A-L (Young, R)
AZ 5 (Mitchell, D) #
AZ 8 (Giffords, D) #
IN 9 (Hill, D)
KY 3 (Yarmuth, D) #
MS 1 (Childers, D)
NY 13 (Open; Fossella, R)
NY 25 (Open; Walsh, R)
OR 5 (Open; Hooley, D) #Dropped :
IL 14 (Foster, D) #,
KS 3 (Moore, D) #,
NY 20 (Gillibrand, D) #
To me, the biggest news is the shifting of MI-09 to “Tilt Democratic” and the OH-01 to “Pure Toss-up”. I would love to see the internals for that Ohio race. I am surprised that he was so reserved whe he shifted FL-16. I think Mahoney is a goner. Oh well.