Yesterday’s grim Zogby poll showed Lampson down by 17 points. A new poll released late yesterday evening confirms the campaign’s dismissal of the Zogby stats. Though this has been briefly touched upon on the front page, I wanted to share some hard data, as this is a very important potential gain / loss.
The numbers, as polled by Benenson Strategy Group:
July 08 – Early Oct 08 – Mid Oct 08
Lampson (D-inc): 37 – 41 – 42
Olsen (R): 45 – 42 – 42
Undec: 12 – 13 – 13
The race is now tied at 42%. That’s NOT a good number for an incumbent, but let’s keep this in perspective. TX-22 is a Republican district hand-drawn by Tom DeLay…
The poll also discusses turnout:
Early vote revealed several positive trends that favor Lampson’s re-election. Democratic turnout is beating Republican turnout across all four counties in the district by 9,103 votes or 10 percent. With 23,776 unknown (many of which are new voters) it is safe to assume that Lampson is receiving the lion’s share of those votes; especially among independents who Olson has written off.
It also shows that every county in his district is exceeding projected turnout by at 10-20%.
Good news for Nick. This race is extremely close, and with 13% undec., it’s really up to the campaign now.