Tag: Rudy Giuliani

Whoa. The latest poll from SurveyUSA on the GOP presidential primary race in California shows Giulani’s lead having shrunk from 20% last month to just 2% a mere 5 days after Fred Thompson’s announcement on Jay Leno. If Thompson can pick off California, we could be moving a lot closer to a deadlocked GOP convention.

Obviously, this is just one poll, and it could be an outlier. All of us regular SSP readers know better than to jump to conclusions just yet. But to go from a 20% lead to a 2% lead with a 4.4% MOE strongly suggests something big could be going on here.

Crosstab analysis below the flip.

Thompson leads by 4% with men, but trails 12% with women. The partisan breakdown by gender is huge here: 63% of the likely GOP primary voters were men. Thompson remained completely flat with women since last month, while Romney gained 8% among women.

Among conservatives (58%), Thompson beats Giuliani 31% to 22% (with McCain and Romney trailing at 17% and 16% respectively). Moderates (33%) strongly go for Giuliani (40%). Thompson gains 8% with conservatives.

Blacks (3%) preferred Thompson to Giuliani 35% to 23%. Thompson gains 20% here, more than double his previous numbers.

Thompson leads by 1% among a crucial GOP voter segment, complete idiots people who think Global Warming is made-up, whereas more sensible GOP voters (relatively speaking here) prefer Giuliani by 5%.

76% of likely GOP voters oppose gay marriage, and they prefer Thompson by 1%

Gun owners prefer Thompson by 2%, the gunless go for Rudy by 7%.

Young voters prefer Rudy, and increasing agge correlates with increasing preference for Thompson.

Here’s a really odd one. Giuliani leads among Bush voters (85%) by 2%. Thompson leads among Kerry voters (7%) by 3%. However, those who think Bush is one of the Greatest American Presidents (26%) prefer Thompson by 2%, and those who think he is one of the worst (18%) prefer Giuliani by 6%.

So, why do we care? If Thompson wins CA and the South, and Romney wins the Mountain West, eastern New England, and gives a strong showing in the Midwest (winning IA, MI, and perhaps some of the Great Plains states), and Giuliani does his thing in the Mid-Atlantic, Illinois, and Swing States like FL, MO, OH, and CO, then we could be headed for a deadlocked contest that goes to the convention for a resolution. This would force the GOP candidates to spend money on the primaries rather than saving for the General election. It would also increase the chances of the GOP’s weakest candidate, Mitt Romney, getting nominated and then crushed by the Democratic nominee in the general.

Public Policy Polling is out with another poll.  This one is huge, with a lot of results for us to talk about.

But, before I dive into details, check out this quick insert from the Indy Weekly of the Triangle:
 

Our tracking signals indicate that Dole rarely travels to North Carolina, whereas Miller seems to be in perpetual campaign motion there. And Republicans like Dole are out of favor for sticking so close to President Bush, are they not? We thus conclude that Miller would beat Dole like a tympanic skin-a drum, I believe you call it.

Ok, now that I have your attention, to the poll.  This poll (link at bottom) consisted of 800 likely voters pulled from the voter rolls.

First, lets hit on the big and simple numbers.
Bush’s approval in North Carolina is 37%, with 59% Disapproval.

This number has been fairly consistent for a while.  If anything this number is worse than it has been in the past.

Next up is Elizabeth Dole.

This poll has Dole’s approval rating at 48% approval and 40% disapproval.  Her numbers have been fluctuating at around +5%.  She might have grabbed a point or two because she killed the immigration bill (first thing she has accomplished in months), but I think this is just margin of error fluctuations.

Just for kicks PPP did a matchup poll between Dole and each of the Democratic candidates for Governor.  Dole leads Lt Gov Beverly Perdue 46 to 37.  Dole leads Treasurer Richard Moore 45 to 34.

Neither of them will actually run, but its interesting because this is matchup poll #6 where Dole has polled below 50%.

From the other side of the aisle, Right Wing think lie tank Civitas has a poll out showing slightly different results.  I wont link to their poll unless I have to, for the same reason I wouldnt link to Rush Limbaugh or Bill O’Reilly.  However, I will talk about their results.

I do not trust these results, as they are normally as Republican friendly as possible without the group losing their non-profit status.  However, with that caveat, their poll results are really good for us.  They give Dole the same 48% approval rating, but with an impossibly low 28% disapproval.  They also show 22% with no opinion.  They also polled for Brad Miller, showing him with 14% approval, 10% disapproval, 38% no opinion and 38% dont know his name.  Considering Brad has only been in Congress since 2002, this is not too surprising.  It might be a little low, but is about what I expected his numbers to be.  If he is going to beat Dole it will just be a question of whether he can raise the money needed to get his name in front of people.

With all of those caveats, they polled Dole v Miller, and got 46% Dole 31% Miller.  So, a Republican friendly poll against a guy with 24% name ID, and they still cant give her numbers above 50%.  She is in BIG trouble.

Ok, back to the Public Policy Poll.  They did matchup polling between Hillary, Obama, Edwards and Rudy McRomneyson.

Against Rudy
Giuliani 47% Clinton 43%
Giuliani 46% Obama 42%
Giuliani 45% Edwards 46%

Against Romney
Romney 41% Clinton 47%
Romney 40% Obama 44%
Romney 37% Edwards 51%

Against McCain
McCain 44% Clinton 45%
McCain 45% Obama 44%
McCain 40% Edwards 48%

Against Thompson
Thompson 46% Clinton 43%
Thompson 45% Obama 40%
Thompson 43% Edwards 47%

In the crosstabs, Edwards bleeds off more Republican support than either Obama or Clinton.  But, his real strength is amongst independent voters.  Obama does the worst job of holding onto Democrats, but he is buoyed by his support amongst independents.

What is really interesting is the similarities amongst black voters for all the candidates.  Personally, I think these polls might be even better news for us than seem.  Does anyone really believe that Obama would lose up to 20% of black voters to McCain?  Does anyone really believe that on election day 24% of black voters will choose Rudy over Edwards?

All these Republicans have way too many skeletons for that to happen, meaning you can probably safely add 2-3 points to every Democratic result.

Some other thoughts on cross tabs.
Dole’s support amongst women is still much healthier than her support amongst men.  This is something that can be changed just by focusing on her actual record on “women’s issues”. 

Our numbers amongst younger voters are simply astonishing.
Amongst voters between the ages of 18 and 29:
Edwards leads Romney 64 to 33! 
Obama leads McCain 61 to 33!

There is a lot more to swallow, check out the poll for yourself.  There are 12 pages (PDF) of statistical goodness.

A quick personal note to end the diary.  Thank you to the people who donated to Brad Miller yesterday.  The Draft page raised over a 1000 dollars yesterday with donors from Kentucky to NC, and donations from $20.00 to $1000.08  Thank you a thousand times over to those people who put their money where their mouth is.

From our new-and-already-good friends down at the Alabama Democratic Party comes word of a Rudy gaffe that showcases how spectacularly out-of-touch the man is. Via the AP:

But when asked about more mundane matters – like the price of some basic staples – Giuliani had trouble with a reporter’s question.

“A gallon of milk is probably about a $1.50, a loaf of bread about a $1.25, $1.30,” he said.

A check of the Web site for D’Agostino supermarket on Manhattan’s Upper East Side showed a gallon of milk priced at $4.19 and a loaf of white bread at $2.99 to $3.39. In Montgomery, Ala., a gallon of milk goes for about $3.39 and bread is about $2.

And this isn’t tucked away at the bottom of the story – the headline is “Republican candidate off the mark on cost of milk, bread.” Ouch. They even bring up one of my favorite all-time gaffes: that wonderful time when George Bush père was mesmerized by a supermarket checkout scanner. Ah, those were the days.

Of course, to us New Yorkers, this comes as no surprise. Rudy Giuliani doesn’t even know how long it takes to wait for a streetlight to turn green – his body men would stop traffic at every corner so that His Highness could stroll by without having to tarry like the rest of us plebes, on those rare occasions he deigned to dirty the soles of his shoes on city sidewalks. Let’s just put it this way: Rudy is no man of the people.

And turning back to that classic Bush-41 moment, there’s no question it helped cement his image as a clueless, distant old man who wasn’t in tune with America. I still remember him trying to connect with a college crowd once, declaring that Al Gore was “way out, far out, man”  – and of course managing to sound like the world’s oldest, uncoolest hippie. Even fifteen years later, it still makes me cringe.

Now, with GHWB, the checkout scanner incident fit neatly, almost perfectly, into a pre-existing narrative about the guy. That narrative doesn’t exist yet with Giuliani, but even if a gaffe like this doesn’t serve as a “defining moment,” it can certainly help in the creation of a new narrative.  And when it comes to Giuliani, branding him as out-of-touch would indeed be accurate to a T.

Research 2000, Iowa, 12/18-12/20, MoE +/-5%, 400 Democratic Caucus Voters:

Obama 22%
Edwards 22%
Vilsack 12%
Clinton 10%
Gore 7%
Kerry 5%
Clark 4%
Kucinich 4%
Bayh 1%
Richardson 1%
Biden 1%
Undecided 11%

ARG, Dec. 19-23, MoE +/-4%, 600 likely Democratic Caucus goers (528 Democrats, 72 no party)

Clinton 31%
Edwards 20%
Vilsack 17%
Obama 10%
Kucinich 5%
Dodd 2%
Kerry 2%
Biden 2%
Gravel 1%
Clark 1%
Richardson 1%
Undecided 8%

Can anyone make any sense of this? These polls were conducted around the same time. OK, side by side comparison time.

Candidates in R2K but not ARG poll:
Gore, Bayh (total 8%)

Candidates in ARG but not R2K:
Dodd, Gravel (total 3%)

Edwards avg: 21%
Clinton avg: 20.5%
Obama avg: 16%
Vilsack avg: 14%
Kucinich avg: 4.5%
Kerry avg: 3.5%
Clark avg: 2.5%
Biden avg: 1.5%
Richardson avg: 1%
Undecided avg: 9.5%

They say that averages are more meaningful than individual polls, but seriously, wtf? There’s a 21 point difference in Hillary’s numbers. The average is outside the MoE for both polls. There’s a 12 point difference in Obama’s numbers. Both are cases of 4th vs. 1st (or tied for 1st).

Oh, but the real cherry comes from R2K – Head to Head numbers!

Obama 42, McCain 39
Obama 43, Giuliani 38
Obama 43, Romney 28

Edwards 42, McCain 39
Edwards 42, Giuliani 38
Edwards 41, Romney 29

McCain 43, Clinton 37
Giuliani 39, Clinton 35
Clinton 40, Romney 30

Of course, the R2K poll seems rather unfavorable to Hillary, so maybe she could beat McCain and Giuliani in Iowa too. I have yet to see a poll demonstrating that, though.

On the GOP side, R2K has McCain by 1%, ARG has Giuliani by 2%.

Next Diary: Nevada (1 poll, ARG)