Tag: 2010 House Open Seat Watch

Roll Call:

Rep. Zach Wamp (R) announced Monday morning that he would run for governor in Tennessee in 2010, creating an open House seat in what should be a safe Republican district.

The decision by the seven-term Congressman came one day after former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) announced he would not seek the gubernatorial post. Since then, the Republican field has opened up and Wamp’s name had been mentioned along with Memphis District Attorney Bill Gibbons and Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam.

According to The Hill, Gibbons has also thrown his hat into the ring, ensuring a chance at some nice primary fireworks here. (For more on the contours of the GOP’s internal battle lines, check out this piece from the Nashville Post.)  And as David notes below, open seat fans should probably not get their hopes up over the vacancy in Wamp’s R+9 district.

Wamp’s retirement brings the number of confirmed Republican open seats up to three (Pete Hoekstra in MI-02 and Jerry Moran in KS-01 being the other two), but none of these seats could be called low-hanging fruit for Democrats by any means.

It’s a done deal, apparently. This comes as something of a surprise, since I don’t believe Solis was even mentioned as a contender for this job — the most recent name with traction appeared to be Connecticut Rep. Rosa DeLauro.

And for the special election handwringers, barring some truly bizarre events, there’s nothing to worry about here: this Los Angeles-based district has a PVI of D+17.

From the Hill:

Less than a week after being reappointed as the top Republican on the House Intelligence Committee, Rep. Pete Hoekstra (Mich.) will announce that he will not seek a tenth term in 2010, according to a source with knowledge of the decision.

Hoekstra, who has denied earlier reports that he will retire and consider a run for governor, will make the announcement on Monday, the source told The Hill.

There’s no word yet whether Hoekstra, who will turn 57 in 2010, will run for the Governor’s office, but this news certainly points in that direction.

On its face, Hoekstra’s district isn’t particularly compelling turf for Democrats to play on — Bush won it by 21 points in both 2000 and 2004. However, SSP’s Pres-by-CD crowdsourcing project revealed that McCain barely held his ground in this district, winning by only 50.8% to Obama’s 47.5%. Of course, some pretty extraordinary circumstances contributed to that result: McCain flipped the bird to the entire state of Michigan and retreated from the playing field weeks before E-Day, so no doubt the conservative base was pretty demoralized here. Even still, perhaps a local Dem can come out of the woodwork and make this an interesting race. Anyone know who we got on the bench?

The Seminal has a great scoop:

Last night at the Midwest Academy Awards and 35th Anniversary Celebration in Washington, DC, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown introduced Illinois Representative Jan Schakowsky by saying, “We may have a special election in Illinois, and if Jan Schakowsky runs, I’ll support her.”

At the end of her speech, Schakowsky threw her hat in the ring, announcing that she was “passing around a clipboard” for people to sign up to be on an organizing committee for her “Senate race, and a basket for donations will follow right behind.” The audience cheered.

In related news, it looks like GOP Rep. Peter Roskam might be interested as well:

Kirk isn’t the only credible Illinois Republican mulling a Senate bid. A source close to Rep. Peter J. Roskam said the second-term congressman is also “very interested” in running for the Senate seat and wouldn’t automatically defer to Kirk. Roskam has a more conservative voting record than Kirk and has won election to a suburban Chicago seat during two rough election cycles for the GOP.

This is potentially great news. I’d love to see Roskam and Kirk bash each other to bits in a GOP primary. And I think, despite Kirk’s seniority, there’s a good chance Roskam could win by appealing to conservative elements in the Republican Party. Who knows – maybe the Club for Growth would get involved on his behalf.

Jeremiah has more in a diary here.

From Roll Call:

Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.) is considering a bid for governor, his office confirmed Wednesday night. In a statement released to the media following questions about his plans for 2010, Gerlach said he was carefully considering a statewide bid.

“I plan to make a decision in the coming weeks,” Gerlach said. “It is quite possible there may be five or six Republican candidates for Governor running by the time the dust settles. An enthusiastic primary for Governor gives all of us who consider ourselves leaders in the Republican Party an opportunity to prove that we have the ability and new ideas that can best lead the Commonwealth.”

This development is excellent news for Democrats who hope to pick up Gerlach’s Democratic-trending suburban Philly seat. Indeed, Gerlach may already be seeing the writing on the wall: after winning re-election with only 52% of the vote against a candidate that he routinely dismissed as not credible and unqualified, he may be in search of an exit strategy before his district’s changing demographics (and looming redistricting) come back to haunt him. And that’s not to mention what a depressing job it must be to be a foot soldier in the Boehner caucus of 2009.

If this seat comes open, it’ll definitely lean Democratic.

GOP Rep. Mark Kirk is seriously considering a run for Barack Obama’s seat if a special election occurs:

In an interview Wednesday morning, Kirk said he was looking at running but thought state legislators’ first priority should be getting Blagojevich out of office.

“I will look at it,” Kirk said. “As far as the people of Illinois, the first job is not to decide how we pick a Senator. The first job is getting rid of the governor.”

But Kirk doesn’t stop there. Displaying his characteristic style of douchebaggery, the faux moderate rips into five of the six Senate candidates mentioned in the federal complaint against Blago:

Kirk did not hold back his disdain for “Senate Candidates one through five” mentioned the federal complaint, at least one of whom the governor said offered money upfront in return for the Senate appointment.

“I think if they were heavily involved with Rod Blagojevich, they will not be viable for a special election – if they can hold public office at all,” Kirk said.

The Illinois Republican said Senate candidates one through five “need to sign criminal attorneys and try to protect themselves against coming indictments.”

This is pretty vile, considering that it’s not clear that any candidates alluded to in the indictment (aside from possibly numbers four and five) engaged in anything shady, especially Senate Candidate #1, who most assume is Valerie Jarrett — someone who withdrew her name from consideration after earning the ire of Blago for not offering him anything other than “appreciation” for an appointment.

My pappy used to tell me: “Son, if you’re gonna go out, you may as well do it in style!” Looks like GOP Rep. Pete King is gonna do it in style:

Rep. Pete King (R-N.Y.) is preparing a run at Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s (D) seat in 2010, his office confirmed Tuesday. […]

King is one of just three GOPers in the New York congressional delegation to survive November’s elections and has a good fundraising start on the race, having banked $1.2 million as of late November.

Of course, a lot depends on who Paterson chooses to fill Clinton’s seat, but I’d wager that King faces extremely tough odds — even against a “weak” Democrat. A King candidacy would also open up his Long Island House seat (old PVI: D+2.1), which is very winnable for Democrats with the right candidate.

UPDATE: The AP has more:

“I am seriously considering the race for Hillary Clinton’s seat,” King told The AP. “I’m very serious about it.”

The eight-term lawmaker from Long Island said New York’s GOP chairman Joseph Mondello “supports me 100 percent,” and that state Conservative Party chair Michael Long has responded positively.

The son of an NYPD lieutenant, King said he “would genuinely represent the interests of blue-collar conservatives.”

It comes as no surprise that Democrat Ethan Berkowitz is considering running for Alaska’s at-large House seat again in 2010, but his reasoning might cause a few heads to explode among the “doom and gloom” crowd: he thinks that the environment will be better for a Democrat in two years. From Roll Call (sub. not req’d):

Berkowitz said in a phone interview Tuesday night that he is “considering” a second bid against Young, who is still under federal investigation.

The Democrat said he planned to take the next few months off from the campaign trail before making a final decision, but he was quick to point out that he received more votes than any other Democrat in state history with the exception of Sen.-elect Mark Begich (D).

“It seems to me that as Alaska sees the sensible course that the Obama administration takes, some of the demonizing of Democrats will evaporate,” Berkowitz said.

Of course, the state of this seat is still very much in flux. Don Young could end up indicted, on the losing end of a primary challenge, or maybe living in a retirement complex on Coconut Road in two years.

Add one more to the list of potential Democratic open seats in the House to be filled by special election soon: CA-31 in downtown Los Angeles. Xavier Becerra, House member since 1992, has, in something of a surprise pick, been asked by the Obama administration to be U.S. Trade Representative. (Anonymous sources seem to conflict over whether or not he has already accepted.)

A vacancy in the Fightin’ 31st will not pose much of a threat; it’s D+30 and 70% Hispanic. State Senator Gilbert Cedillo (SD-22) seems to overlap much of this same turf, but this is also the turf of former Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez (AD-46), who was just term-limited out of his Assembly position and may well be looking for something new to do.

If anything, the interesting fight over the musical chairs will be in the House leadership, where Becerra was just elected vice chair of the Democratic caucus, the #5 role on the leadership totem pole, possibly meaning more reshuffling involving Chris Van Hollen ditching the DCCC to become vice-chair, or perhaps Debbie Wasserman Schultz leapfrogging into the job, or perhaps another challenge by Marcy Kaptur (who was defeated by Becerra for the job several weeks ago).

Looks like we can cross off Chet Edwards from the House Open Seat Watch. Burnt Orange Report has the full press release:

“While it is an honor to have been considered for the position of U.S. Secretary of Veterans Affairs, I believe I can make the most difference for veterans, our district and country by continuing to serve in Congress. That is why I have informed President-elect Obama’s transition team that I intend to continue representing the 17th Congressional District of Texas.

With my seniority in Congress and as Chairman of the House Military Construction and Veterans Affairs Appropriations Subcommittee, I believe I can do more for our military troops, our veterans and their families in my present position than I could as Secretary of Veterans Affairs. At the same time I can continue my work to improve roads, economic infrastructure and the quality of life in the 17th District, a district in which I have deep, personal roots.

While Chet would have made an excellent choice to head up Veterans Affairs, he’s also the only Democrat who could hold his impossibly tough Texas district (old PVI: R+18). In fact, not even his re-election is assured here — Edwards only pulled in 53% of the vote against a mostly invisible opponent earlier this month. Perhaps he’ll fare better in a non-Presidential year, but Republicans will surely put more effort into recruiting a stronger challenger for him in 2010.