Tag: 2010 House Open Seat Watch

Say hello to two possible new senators in 2011: Robin Carnahan and Paul Hodes. Both confirmed today that they will be running in 2010, Carnahan in Missouri and Hodes in New Hampshire.

Missouri Sec. of State Carnahan will be running for the seat left open by Kit Bond’s retirement; her opponent won’t be known for a while (there will probably be a competitive GOP primary, with Rep. Roy Blunt, ex-Sen. Jim Talent, and ex-Treasurer Sarah Steelman eyeing the race), but a recent PPP poll shows her ahead of all of them. Her announcement video is here.

Rep. Paul Hodes is running for a seat that may or may not be open; it’s still unclear who Gov. John Lynch will appoint to replace Judd Gregg (who will become Commerce Secretary), although sources point to Gregg’s former chief of staff Bonnie Newman. The Union-Leader reports: “She is not expected to run for a full term in 2010.”

Hodes had already been considering an uphill battle against an incumbent Gregg, but with the Gregg’s departure and the expectation that Newman will serve two years and not run for re-election, it looked like too good an opportunity for Hodes to pass up.

The developments surrounding that surprising appointment by President Obama “has sped up his timeline and he will make a formal announcement within the week,” the source said.

Here’s something that’s way past due: SSP’s first Open Seat Watch chart of the 2010 cycle. This chart was a recurring feature on the front page here throughout 2007 and the first few months of 2008, and we’ll be sure to keep it updated regularly over the coming months. Just like we did last time, I’ve put together charts tracking confirmed retirements/vacancies, potential retirements, and a new third chart tracking seats that were once considered potentially open, but now are not. Here we go:

So that’s ten open seats right off the bat — although three of these will soon be filled by special elections. A bit of a dog’s breakfast, but the list should soon grow to include some even better pick-up opportunities.

Potential Retirements/Vacancies:

Just to be clear here, “age” refers to the incumbent’s age on election day, 2010. (If I have fudged any birthdays by accident, please let me know in the comments.) And once Charlie Cook bakes some new PVIs, I’ll swap out the old numbers in our chart.

Off the Watch List:

If there are any names that I am missing, please share ’em (and your rationale/sourcing) in the comments. Thank you.

Another unsurprising departure:

U.S. Rep. Artur Davis on Friday will declare his intention to seek the governorship of Alabama, sources close to the congressman confirm.  

The much-anticipated announcement marks the most serious bid ever launched by a black candidate to win the top office in a state that still observes Robert E. Lee and Jefferson Davis’ birthdays but that also gave rise to the civil rights movement that ended Jim Crow.

Sources close to the campaign said Davis, 41, will announce his intention to seek the Democratic Party nomination for governor at a midday event Friday in Birmingham, which he represents in Congress, followed by a late-afternoon event in his native Montgomery. He’ll kick off his campaign outside the state’s Archives, within sight of the first White House of the Confederacy and the Alabama Capitol, where that Confederacy was born 148 years ago Wednesday.

Ag Comm’r and SSP hero Ron Sparks, as well as Lt. Gov. Jim Folsom, are also considering runs for the Dems. Open seat fans, don’t fret – Obama won 79% of the vote in AL-07. In fact, this is a good opportunity to replace Davis with someone more progressive, in the mold, perhaps, of Steve Cohen replacing Harold Ford, Jr.

UPDATE: A Roll Call piece (h/t politicalal) lists some potential AL-07 candidates:

Of the several members of the state Legislature who have been mentioned as possible Davis replacements, the most intriguing may be state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr. (D), the son of the former Congressman [whom Davis ousted in a primary in 2002]. …

Other Democratic state legislators whose names have been floated as possible candidates in the 7th include state Rep. Merika Coleman and state Sen. Rodger Smitherman, who both hail from Jefferson County, where Birmingham is located. State Sen. Bobby Singleton, whose senate district includes parts of Tuscaloosa and rural counties south and west, has also been mentioned. …

Birmingham attorney Terri Sewell, a longtime associate of Davis’ who attended Princeton University at the same time as first lady Michelle Obama, is expected to run in an open-seat race in the 7th.  …

Another candidate mentioned in Democratic circles is Sheila Smoot, a two-term Jefferson County commissioner who is also known for her work as a former television news anchor.

In a widely expected move, GOP Rep. Adam Putnam is bailing:

Rep. Adam Putnam, the third-ranking Republican in the House until he relinquished that post late last year, will give up his House seat to pursue a bid as the next agriculture commissioner of Florida.

His decision to make this run has been the source of much speculation since he gave up his post as chairman of the Republican Conference on election night last fall. Most Floridians view the commissioner’s job as a stepping stone to the governor’s office.

Despite the lack of surprise, this is nonetheless a telling move. Putnam was a rising star in the GOP ranks and is only 34 years old. He likely would have sat in Boehner’s seat some day. Yet he’s choosing to leave the House rather than face the prospect of a lengthy tour in the wilderness.

Remarkably, the prior holder of Putnam’s leadership job – Chair of the House Republican Conference – also just bailed last cycle. (That would be Deborah Pryce.) We also saw the departure of two former NRCC heads (Tom Reynolds and Tom Davis). Can’t say I blame any of them for wanting to jump ship, but it really says something that so many top GOPers are fleeing.

Anyhow, open seat fans, this news is quite interesting. In 2004, George Bush romped in this district, racking up a 58-42 win. But that changed dramatically in 2008, with McCain only narrowly edging Obama 51-48. I’d be interested to hear your thoughts as to why FL-12 jumped thirteen points while the state as a whole moved “only” eight.

In any event, Tim Sahd over at the Hotline takes a look at who some of the candidates might be:

Of course, for Dems to have a chance, they’ll need to recruit a candidate that matches the GOP-leaning CD. And if moderate ex-state Sen./’98 LG candidate Rick Dantzler runs, they may have that candidate. But it’s been 10 years since he ran (his ticket ran against ex-Gov. Jeb Bush’s (R) and lost, 55-45%), so the value of his name ID in this race is questionable.

The Lakeland Ledger also reports that state Rep. Seth McKeel (R) — a close friend of Putnam’s — had been considered the most likely candidate to run, but the birth of his child has has him leaning toward staying in the legislature. Other GOPers that are mentioned include state Sen. Paula Dockery (R) and state Rep. Dennis Ross (R).

This is probably the most compelling red seat to open up so far. Looking forward to a bunch more of these!

Fast forward, selecta!

Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-Kan.) officially launched his 2010 Senate bid Saturday, setting up a primary face off with fellow Republican Rep. Jerry Moran.

“As I travel across Kansas listening and sharing my vision for a more prosperous state, I have been encouraged to take my leadership to the United States Senate in 2010,” Tiahrt said at an event in Topeka, according to a statement issued by his campaign.

“I am resolute in my determination to take on tough battles in Washington to get things done for the great people of Kansas,” he said. “I stand before you today announcing that I am now a candidate for the United States Senate.”

The gulf between Moran and Tiahrt isn’t especially wide ideologically, but Tiahrt’s profile as a hard-right culture warrior may work to the advantage of Kansas Democrats should he manage to defeat Moran. From CQ:

“Tiahrt running for seat is ironically helpful for Democrats,” said Burdett Loomis, a professor of political science at University of Kansas and longtime observer of state politics. “If Tiahrt gets the nomination, the Democratic nomination is really worth something to anyone who could track funding. Tiahrt is perceived as quite a social conservative, and he doesn’t have terrific recognition outside his district. Moran has a much broader identification around the state.”

Open seat fans should be aware that Tiahrt’s 4th CD has an old PVI of R+12.2 and only gave Obama 40% of the vote this time around — pretty tough sledding, even though the area has sent Democrats to the House in decades previous.

CQ identifies state Rep. Raj Goyle as the leading candidate for Kansas Democrats — assuming he wants the nomination. In the diaries earlier this week, kansasjackass gave us some more detail:

State Rep. Raj Goyle shocked the Kansas political establishment when he beat incumbent Republican State Rep. Bonnie Huy in 2006, and has since made a name for himself as an able and ambitious member of the state legislature.  As a testament to the quality of a candidate he is, in his reliably Republican district his original election in 2006 wasn’t that close (56%-44%) and his re-election in 2008 was a blow-out: He won 67% of the vote.

Sounds like a guy worth keeping an eye on.

WPIX is claiming that multiple sources tell them that David Paterson will announce tomorrow that Kirsten Gillibrand will be appointed as the new Senator from New York, to fill the vacancy left by Hillary Clinton. This comes after yesterday’s announcement that Caroline Kennedy was withdrawing from consideration.

As one source noted, “in politics you never know,” but based on the information they have heard and shared with PIX News Governor Paterson intends to name Kirsten Gillibrand as New York’s next Senator at a noon news conference tomorrow in Albany.

So, if this actually happens (just watch it be Cuomo instead!), here are several thoughts:

* This leaves a big gaping hole to be filled by special election in NY-20, an R+3 district that has been bluening but has historical GOP advantage and not much of a Democratic bench at the legislative or county level. This could be a difficult retention in a special election.

* This potentially sets up two Democratic primaries in 2010 for the statewide races: Andrew Cuomo vs. Paterson in the governor’s race (seeing as Cuomo has the time to do so), and Gillibrand defending her seat. (Also rumored today was that Carolyn McCarthy from NY-04 threatened to challenge Gillibrand in a primary in 2010.)

* Some progressives won’t be happy to see this seat filled by a Blue Dog caucus member, and the least liberal member of the New York House delegation… although it seems likely she’ll move to the left once in office to match her new larger and more liberal constituency.

UPDATE (James): As the lead organizer of DavidNYC’s transition team, I feel it necessary to inform the public and members of the media that Mr. NYC is keeping all of his options open on the possibility of running in the 2010 and 2012 Senate primaries.

The Hill:

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-Fla.) is expected to announce he is running for retiring Sen. Mel Martinez’s (R-Fla.) seat on Tuesday morning, making him the first Democrat in the race.

Meek, a four-term congressman, has announced a 10 a.m. EST press conference in Miami, where Democratic sources with knowledge of his plans said he is set to announce he is entering the race.

I’m no big fan of Kendrick Meek, in no small part thanks to his non-support of our trio of Democratic challengers in South Florida this past fall, but thankfully I doubt that he’ll have a clear primary field to himself. State Sen. Dan Gelber will also announce a decision shortly, and Florida CFO Alex Sink is also weighing a run.

Open seat fans have no reason to fret — Meek’s 17th CD has an absurdly Democratic PVI of D+35.

Politico:

Ohio Republican George Voinovich is expected to announce Monday that he won’t seek reelection to the Senate in 2010.

A two-term senator, former governor and Cleveland mayor, Voinovich has been a political fixture in his state for decades. But recent press reports from his home state have indicated the 72-year-old lawmaker is considering retirement, and a person close to him told Politico that the announcement will come Monday. […]

A Voinovich spokesman would only confirm that he will make an announcement Monday on his future. But a Senate Republican leadership aide said that Voinovich’s planned retirement is “real” and an announcement will come soon.

Assuming Voiny follows through tomorrow, his announcement will be the fourth GOP Senate retirement this cycle so far (Brownback, Martinez, and Bond being the other three amigos), and will hand Democrats another excellent opportunity to pad their majority.

For the Democrats, Lt. Governor Lee Fisher and 17th CD Rep. Tim Ryan appear to be on a primary collision course, though other names could conceivably throw down, as well. Republican contenders include ex-Reps. Rob Portman and John Kasich, though it might be nice for House Democrats if someone like, say, current 12th CD Rep. Pat Tiberi gave up his seat to run for the job, as well.

Perhaps more importantly, the recent wave of Republican retirements seems to have induced a certain level of panic among Senate GOPers:

Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), one of the biggest fundraisers for the NRSC last cycle, said the wave of retirements has caused some panic among Republicans.

“I’m really concerned because it’s important we have some balance here because if we don’t, one side can do whatever it wants to do, and that’s not good for the country,” Hatch said. “To the extent that some of these folks decide to leave and they certainly have the right to do that, we’re going to have to find good candidates to run and hopefully hold onto our seats.”

Finding good candidates should be Job No. 1 for Republicans right now, but the early signs aren’t all that encouraging for John Cornyn’s NRSC: Jeb Bush has already turned down a Senate seat that could have easily been his in Florida, and the committee has no obvious silver bullets in Missouri and Ohio. Moreover, we have yet to hear much in the way of serious buzz surrounding challenges to Democratic incumbents in 2010.

Republicans may have some wind at their backs if Obama stumbles or if the national economy slides further over the next two years, but they may not be in much of a position to take advantage of that if they end up being saddled by retirements and recruitment failures made in these early days of no hope.

More discussion already under way in Populista’s diary.

Update: CNN says that their sources are also confirming the same details about Voinovich’s announcement tomorrow, which will come at 4pm Eastern.

Roll Call:

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), who won a third term in November in a race that was closer than many Republicans would have liked, is expected to create an exploratory committee for a possible run for state attorney general in 2010, two Texas media outlets reported Thursday evening.

The current attorney general, Greg Abbott (R), is contemplating running for lieutenant governor next year – or for Senate if Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) resigns early to pursue a gubernatorial bid.

This might be the most exciting House open seat news so far this cycle. McCaul won with just 54% of the vote in November, and 55% two years earlier. This district always looked more competitive than its (old) PVI of R+13, in large part due to an ongoing demographic sea change – in particular, Hispanic growth here has been through the roof.

I’d also be willing to bet that Bush’s numbers were inflated here due to a home state effect – and that Obama did better than Kerry’s 38%. The real question is whether there is something “wrong” with McCaul that’s kept his numbers down – and, consequently, would we be better off running against him or with an open seat? I’ll note that the DCCC didn’t spend a dime on this district, but first-time candidate Larry Joe Doherty did raise an impressive $1.2 million in his losing bid.

If McCaul bails, Doherty could conceivably run again, as could international affairs consultant Dan Grant, who ran in the primary against Doherty in 2008. My question to you: Are there any other strong candidate who might be tempted to run if there’s an open seat?

Is it Xavier time?

An Obama transition team source said a veteran California congressman, Xavier Becerra, has emerged as the leading congressional candidate to replace Richardson, the Hispanic governor of New Mexico, as President-elect Barack Obama’s choice for a job that will include overseeing the 2010 U.S. Census.

“Even though he turned down the trade representative slot, Becerra is not only Hispanic, but he has the skill, talent and experience to do the Commerce job,” said the source, who was not authorized to speak for the president-elect.

“Xavier’s name has gone to the top of the list of potential replacements in part because he is a member of the House leadership, he is well liked, he has very good credentials, and, of course, he was an early Obama backer,” the source said.

(Hat-tip: The Taegan Goddard Experience)